With the accomplishment of the harvest of crops such as summer corn and rice, and the expectation of an increase in the planting area of winter corn, the National Supply Company (Conab) has raised its estimate for the national production of grains and fibers in this 2021/22 season.
The projection now indicates 270.2 million tonnes, 851 million tonnes more than estimated in April and a record volume, 5.7% higher than the 2020/21 cycle. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which also updated numbers on Thursday, with a slightly different methodology, it will be 261.5 million tonnes, a rise of 3.3%.
“This improvement in production is explained by the larger planted area in the second-crop of corn, in addition to the better development at the end of the crops cycle, especially rice, corn and soybeans,” writes Conab in its 8th report on the season – which was revised at the end of the day, due to an error about the second yearly crop
For corn, total production is now estimated at 114.6 million tonnes, a 31.6% increase in comparison with 2020/21, when there was a harvest loss due to drought in the winter. “The longer window for planting the second harvest, together with market conditions, favored the growth of the cereal area,” Conab says.
Last month, the state-owned company forecasted a total corn harvest of 115.6 million tonnes. The second crop production alone is expected to reach 87.7 million tonnes, an increase of 44,4% over 2020/21.
“During field trips, the company’s technicians identified sown areas even outside the ideal window, which shows that the expected profitability for the crop is still attractive to producers,” says Conab’s president Guilherme Ribeiro in the text released.
This increase reduced the negative impact of adverse weather conditions in important producing regions for the second harvest, such as the state of Goiás and part of Mato Grosso.
“The current harvest will not reach the potential productivity, but it still tends to be a good production, mainly because of earlier plantings. However, we still need to pay attention to the crop development,” Conab points out.
Another important second yearly crop production, cotton has counted on favorable weather. And, also with a gain in area, production should reach 2.82 million tonnes, the same volume projected in April. If confirmed, it will be the second best result since official records began, with a 19.5% increase over the previous harvest, being lower only than the 2019/20 cycle.
The expectation of a good second harvest is being confirmed for beans, according to Conab. “The more favorable weather has contributed to a higher grain yield, in most producing regions, which brings a harvest expectation at 1.4 million tonnes, an increase of 23.3% compared to the same period of the 2020/21 season.” Together, the three bean crops are expected to total 3.1 million tonnes – the same volume expected last month, 8.4% higher than 2020/21.
Among the first-crop products, soybeans are already 95% harvested. The estimated production is 123.8 million tonnes, a reduction of 10.4% in relation to the previous harvest, but with an increase of 1.14% in relation to last month’s calculation.
In the case of rice, the harvest had already reached 91% of the sown area when the Conab report was completed, and Brazil is expected to produce 10.7 million tonnes, slightly above the forecast in April (10.5 million). Compared to last year’s harvest, there is a drop of 9.1%.
“The drop reported for these grains [soy and rice] in this cycle is explained by the drought in the Southern states of the country and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul between the end of 2021 and the beginning of this year,” explains the Conab text.
Among the winter crops that have not yet been sown, the international scenario stimulates the planting of wheat. Conab expects the area to increase by 3% in relation to the previous cycle, to 2.82 million hectares. With this, and if good weather conditions are maintained, production may reach 8.13 million tonnes, 5.9% more than last season.
Source: Valor International