Trump’s defeat in midterms opens door to moderate right in Brazil, experts say

Senator and former presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL, Rio de Janeiro), former federal lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, and other leaders of the group have not immediately commented on the outcome of the midterms.

Fernando Bizzarro, who holds a PhD in political science from Harvard University and is a professor at Boston College, believes the change in the composition of the U.S. Congress will have little impact on relations between the two countries. Congress can also influence decisions through budget approval. According to him, the president retains autonomy over foreign policy, including tariffs and bilateral relations.

For Bizzarro, the most significant effect of Trump’s defeat is symbolic. Following the Bolsonaro movement’s loss to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT), the U.S. result represents another setback for the populist right in the Americas, which had been gaining ground, the professor said. “It seems the tide is now turning,” he said.

Bizzarro cautions that this string of defeats does not necessarily mean a direct loss of electoral strength for the Bolsonaro movement. He points to Flávio’s performance and the presence of the Bolsonaro surname among lawmakers and governors elected in the elections. “Bolsonarism is still the main electoral movement within the Brazilian right,” he said.

The professor does not, however, rule out an opening for a non-Bolsonaro-aligned right in the next elections. Trump’s weakening could benefit moderate sectors without diminishing the Bolsonaro movement’s electoral strength. “Both things can be true,” Bizzarro said, summing up his view that the Bolsonaro movement remains strong but could face tougher competition within the right.

Bizzarro believes that openly associating with Trump is likely to become less electorally appealing in Brazil. According to him, U.S. support and the tariffs imposed on Brazil hurt Flávio’s voting intentions during the campaign, leading the senator to mention Trump less frequently in the runoff. Following the defeat, he expects the right to continue looking to the U.S. as a point of reference while avoiding public displays of closeness to the Republican.

Jorge Chaloub, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and the Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF), and a researcher of right-wing movements, believes Trump’s defeat has a greater impact in Brazil because of the Bolsonaro movement’s alignment with the American radical right. “It seems to me that the impact is greater than usual,” he said.

Chaloub explains that the rapprochement has gone beyond a strategic relationship to include explicit support for Trumpism and initiatives to pressure Brazil. In his view, the ties affect the Bolsonaro family’s image. “The silence has to do with that,” he said, referring to the lack of statements from Flávio and Eduardo. He believes that acknowledging their ally’s setback could be interpreted by supporters as a sign of defeat for their political group.

The professor believes Flávio’s and Trump’s losses could lead members of the right to seek alternatives to the Bolsonaro movement. He stresses, however, that former president Jair Bolsonaro still commands the largest electoral capital within this political camp and was able to transfer votes to his son quickly.

Chaloub sees different calculations at play among lawmakers and presidential candidates. For lawmakers, maintaining close ties with the former president may be advantageous; for those running in a national election, the association could be an obstacle.

“It is difficult to win with Bolsonaro, given that he and his son lost the last elections, but it also seems even harder to be competitive without Bolsonaro,” he said.

In the political scientist’s view, the fact that important leaders remain outside the country or in prison could create an opening for the Bolsonaro movement to lose its dominance on the right. He does not expect an immediate break with Trump. The most likely scenario, he said, is that Bolsonaro supporters will keep a lower public profile and make “fewer overtures” to the U.S. president.

Paulo Figueiredo, an influencer and ally of the Bolsonaro family in the U.S., was one of the few members of the group to comment on the elections. He celebrated the result in Florida, where he and the Bolsonaros live. “Thank God, my free state of Florida remains Republican […] At least that,” he wrote on social media.

The grandson of former president João Figueiredo, the last leader of Brazil’s military dictatorship, Paulo has lived in the U.S. since 2016. He was charged by the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) over alleged involvement in the coup plot and suspected obstruction of justice, for allegedly working in the U.S. to pressure Brazilian authorities. The cases have not yet resulted in a conviction by the Supreme Court.

Flávio is in the U.S., where he fled after the presidential defeat and amid Federal Police (PF) investigations into potential corruption and money laundering. Before the trip, Justice Alexandre de Moraes had ordered him to surrender his passports to the Federal Police within 24 hours, after the agency cited a risk of flight. Eduardo, meanwhile, has lived in the U.S. since 2025. He was sentenced by the Supreme Court to four years and two months in prison for obstruction of justice, after pressuring the Court through U.S. sanctions last year.

*By Guilherme Carvalho — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/