The impact of two months of rain in Rio Grande do Sul was comparable to the more than R$7bn in losses seen over two years of the pandemic
08/13/2024
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Pasture burned by fire in the Campinas region, São Paulo: Insurers’ risk assessment models, based on historical series, are becoming less effective in the face of climate extremes — Foto: Luciano Claudino/Código 19/Agência O Globo
Climate change, with its increasing frequency and intensity of events such as heavy rainfall, heatwaves, and droughts, is pushing the insurance industry to rethink how it manages risk. The growing realization is that this is the “elephant in the room” that insurers must address with urgency.
This shift is essential because what seems to be the new normal is challenging the sector’s traditional business model. “We’re witnessing events that used to occur once every hundred or 200 years happening more frequently. That’s an increase in risk, and when risk increases, insurance premiums rise. As a result, people stop purchasing insurance because it’s become more expensive—precisely at a time when insurance is more critical than ever,” said Marcos Falcão, CEO of IRB(Re), in an interview with Valor. He added that reinsurers will need to improve their valuation and pricing models to adapt. “This is a significant challenge for the entire industry.”
Earlier this year, IRB(Re) established a dedicated research and development unit to focus on climate risks. One of its first actions was hosting a forum in Rio de Janeiro, bringing together public and private sector leaders and researchers to discuss the current situation and explore ways to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change.
Not long ago, Brazil was considered relatively free from extreme natural events, unlike other countries, but “now they’ve learned the way here,” said BrasilSeg president Amauri Vasconcelos.
A striking example of this was the heavy rains that battered Rio Grande do Sul between April and May, causing devastation comparable to the impact of the two-year COVID-19 pandemic on insurers. For Mr. Vasconcelos, this highlights the immense destructive power of climate-related phenomena. “An isolated two-month event is nearing the scale of the largest disaster ever covered by the sector,” he noted.
Insurance companies in Brazil have paid out around R$7 billion in compensation related to COVID-19, with BrasilSeg alone disbursing around R$2 billion. In response to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, the insurance market has paid out R$5.6 billion in claims as of the end of July, with estimates from the National Confederation of Insurers (CNSeg) suggesting that total compensation could reach between R$6 and R$8 billion.
This evolving climate landscape demands that the industry rethink how it assesses catastrophic risk. “We continue to rely on historical data models for risk assessment, but with the climate crisis, it’s clear that we’ve experienced a break in those historical patterns,” said Dyogo Oliveira, president of CNSeg. “This industry has an unmatched ability to manage risk, but we must make a significant effort to prepare the market for this increasing and inevitable challenge.”
Climate scientist Carlos Nobre underscored the urgency of the situation. “Current climate change is widespread, accelerating, and growing more severe. We are seeing record droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires,” he stated.
Mr. Nobre, president of the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change, warned that global temperatures have already risen more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, threatening the long-term survival of the Amazon. He also highlighted the rapid melting of glaciers and rising sea levels, with some areas of the Pacific seeing an increase of 20 to 25 centimeters.
Paulo Miller, an advisor to the directorate of prudential regulation and economic studies at the Superintendence of Private Insurance (SUSEP), described the climate crisis as the “elephant in the room” for the insurance industry. He emphasized that the sector must not approach this with an “extractive mentality”—seeking to exploit the market until it becomes uninsurable—but rather focus on keeping risks insurable by promoting sound risk management practices. “Beyond pricing and selling protection, insurance has a critical regulatory role in fostering good risk management among policyholders,” Mr. Miller explained.
One strategy proposed by insurers to address these challenges is to strengthen collaboration with academia, which generates scientific knowledge, and public authorities, while also promoting a broader insurance culture in the country. “The low penetration of insurance and the insufficient growth rate in Brazil, which falls short of what’s needed to protect our population, businesses, and assets, is a serious concern,” said Mr. Vasconcelos of BrasilSeg. He noted that in Rio Grande do Sul, estimated insurance payouts represented less than 10% of the R$97 billion in economic losses calculated from the recent floods.
In rural areas, losses from climate-related events over the past decade have totaled R$287 billion, with only a fraction, R$56 billion, covered by agricultural insurance or government reimbursements through the Agricultural Activity Guarantee Program (PROAGRO), a 50-year-old agricultural insurance program designed to protect farmers against uncontrollable natural losses. The rest of the losses were absorbed by producers, many of whom were driven to bankruptcy. “Ultimately, the burden falls on civil society. When climate risks intensify, and the insurance culture remains well below the global average, the entire society is affected,” Mr. Vasconcelos emphasized.
Source: Valor International