Rates surpass 12% after disappointing report, impacting exchange rate and stock market
09/24/2024
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The market once again voiced concern over the state of government accounts, leading to the third consecutive session of pressure on futures rates, which reached their highest levels of the year and settled above 12%. Investors were disappointed by Friday’s release of the bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, which revealed a reduction in the previously announced R$15 billion spending freeze from July. With the perception of a less stringent fiscal policy, risk premiums surged, impacting future interest rates and the foreign exchange and stock markets.
During Friday’s session, rising risk aversion caused significant market stress, which only deepened on Monday. Brazil’s interbank benchmark rate, known as CDI, for January 2029 surged from 12.31% to 12.475%, hitting a session high of 12.575%. On the foreign exchange front, the FX rate neared R$5.60 per dollar but closed at R$5.5344, up 0.25%, while the benchmark stock index, Ibovespa, dropped 0.38% to 130,568 points.
“The reduction in fiscal efforts, announced earlier, sends a negative signal, especially in light of the growing primary deficit,” says Roberto Secemski, chief economist for Brazil at Barclays. “It suggests the government’s tendency to spend up to the maximum limit allowed by the fiscal framework, despite the pressing need for structural, long-term spending adjustments.”
According to Mr. Secemski, the current skepticism in the domestic market stems less from concerns about compliance with the fiscal framework this year and more from a broader lack of confidence in addressing “underlying vulnerabilities” and the “perception of weak commitment to the effective stabilization of public debt.”
This view aligns with that of Luiz Alberto Basqueira, partner and head of fixed income at Ace Capital, who believes that the primary factor behind the market’s recent downturn is a growing “distrust of fiscal policy.” “The market has been skeptical of fiscal policy for some time, but recent small measures and government announcements have accumulated, reminding investors of the persistent challenges with government accounts,” Mr. Basqueira notes.
He points to the Supreme Court’s authorization of additional extraordinary credits, last week’s income and expenditure report, and the announcement of the gas voucher program, which, while likely to be altered by the government, “has already left a scar.”
“This is all unfolding against a very unfavorable backdrop, with increased market concern over the debt-to-GDP ratio. The market is troubled by two things: the perception that the government is not committed to delivering the surplus needed to stabilize the debt and the fact that while the current target can be met, it would be achieved mainly through revenue-side measures, many of which are ‘one-offs.’ The market views this as a low-quality adjustment,” says Mr. Basqueira.
Compounding the negative fiscal outlook is the onset of a monetary tightening cycle, with the Central Bank’s recent communication taking a notably hawkish tone. “The high inflation projection in the reference scenario signals to the market that the interest rate path in the COPOM’s model—already factoring in a 100-basis-point rise in the Selic rate—will need to be more aggressive,” Mr. Basqueira adds. It’s no surprise, then, that Ace Capital has maintained its “long” positions on rising interest rates across the curve.
Both short- and long-term interest rates have been climbing steadily, reflecting the market’s expectation of a more aggressive tightening cycle. The Focus Bulletin, released on Monday, now projects a Selic policy rate of 11.75% per year at the end of January, while the market is already pricing in a rate of 12.75% by mid-next year.
Despite this surge in interest rates, the Brazilian real has not found support. Although the currency gained on Thursday, it has been heavily penalized in recent sessions due to rising risk perceptions.
“The fiscal issue remains the ‘Gordian knot’—the country’s unsolvable problem,” said Andrei Basilio, head of foreign exchange at XP Treasury. “The government missed a key opportunity to show it is addressing fiscal concerns seriously, not just in the short or medium term, but structurally.”
Mr. Basilio emphasizes that it’s not just the numbers in the report that matter, but the lost opportunity. “The Central Bank is clearly grappling with stronger economic growth, which pressures inflation and leads to rate hikes. We’re also seeing improved tax revenues driven by expansionary fiscal policy. This should have been the time to build a fiscal cushion, not the opposite.”
If there are no further negative surprises on the fiscal front and the government delivers on its medium-term promises, the real remains a solid bet, according to Mr. Basilio. “But right now, there’s a bitter aftertaste due to the bimonthly report, as reflected in the yield curve.”
In this context, Maurício Bernardo, fixed-income manager at Vinland Capital, finds the rise in market premiums “reasonable,” given the disappointment with the income and expenditure report.
He notes that the yield curve was already under pressure due to expectations of a higher Selic rate. Now, concerns about fiscal policy have reignited uncertainty, prompting investors to question whether an even larger rate hike, beyond the anticipated 50 basis points in November, might be necessary.
“The risk premium weighs on the exchange rate and fuels market speculation about whether faster monetary tightening might be required. If more tightening is necessary, why not act sooner? The market is factoring that in,” says Mr. Bernardo. Last week, the digital options market for the next Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) meeting in November briefly priced in a minority chance of a 75 basis-point hike.
In Mr. Bernardo’s view, the market still has room to price in additional risk premiums on the yield curve, driven by expectations that interest rates may need to rise further or concerns over fiscal risks. “If we don’t see positive developments on the fiscal front or more favorable inflation and activity data, it’s reasonable for the market to continue pricing a premium above 250 bp,” he says, referring to the Selic rate the market currently projects for the end of the tightening cycle.
ASA’s head of multimarket, Filippe Santa Fé, shares a similar perspective, calling the recent behavior in the interest rate market “natural.” “He adds, “I don’t think it’s a matter of positioning or that the movement is exaggerated at this point. Perhaps the speed of the adjustment has attracted attention, but we’re clearly not at any extreme in pricing.”
*Por Gabriel Caldeira, Arthur Cagliari, Victor Rezende — São Paulo
Source: Valor International