U.S. president-elect may hinder discussions and stall measures, reinforcing dissenting positions like Javier Milei’s
11/20/2024
Following Brazil’s advancements during its rotating presidency of the G20, the summit of leaders from the world’s largest economies faces a period of uncertainties starting in 2025, with Donald Trump assuming office in the United States. Mr. Trump, a critic of multilateralism, signals potential challenges for the group. That was evident in Rio de Janeiro, where Argentine President Javier Milei, an ally of Mr. Trump, made clear his disagreement with several points of the G20’s consensus final declaration.
These challenges are expected to arise at the next meeting in South Africa, during Mr. Trump’s first year in office.
“The feeling is that nothing will be the same. Trump’s return will have an unimaginable impact,” a Brazilian diplomat said. Another negotiator added, “It’s one thing for the United States, China, or Russia to come to the G20 ready to disrupt the declaration; it’s another for Argentina. They [Argentina] cannot handle the consequences alone. With U.S. support, the situation changes.”
Buoyed by a decisive electoral victory, with more global experience and no reelection on the horizon, Mr. Trump aims to shake up international relations. Not only will he be in the White House for the next G20 summit, but he will also chair the group in 2026. Some in Brazil’s Foreign Affairs Ministry fear that Rio may have witnessed the last “productive” gathering of the world’s major economies, despite Mr. Milei’s presence.
In Argentina, President Milei’s ultraliberal moves are seen as gestures to his electorate rather than genuine threats to disrupt Brazil’s G20 agenda. His repeated “do not count on us” statements led to diplomatic friction with most group members, especially with the main European economic powers, Germany and France.
Mr. Milei’s speech at the plenary of heads of state on Monday (18) was met with sparse applause and criticism, such as from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. After making his point, Mr. Milei withdrew his veto threats and agreed to the summit’s final declaration, preserving the G20’s consensus legitimacy.
The outcome was positive for Brazilian diplomacy and was celebrated by key global leaders. Shortly after the text’s unexpected release on the first day of meetings, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated President Lula for successfully addressing “one of the world’s most urgent issues.”
In his closing message at the summit, President Lula stated that the G20 can and must do more. “We have worked diligently, aware that we have only scratched the surface of the profound challenges facing the world,” the Brazilian leader said as he handed the group’s presidency to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.
By releasing the final declaration on the summit’s first day, Brazil employed a strategy to shield the agreed text from last-minute amendment requests. Brazilian diplomats kept the dialogue at the sherpa level (country negotiators) to avoid “opening the Pandora’s box” among heads of state.
The reading is that renegotiating the text at the president and prime minister level would be even more challenging than the already complex discussions among negotiators. The sherpas spent the week in a hotel, working through the nights to reach consensuses that involved intricate details such as word and comma changes in the declaration paragraphs.
In Argentina’s case, the solution involved Mr. Milei’s verbal remarks, followed by a statement from the Casa Rosada outlining his points of disagreement, such as gender equality declarations, super-rich taxation, and climate change action goals. “Without obstructing the declaration of other leaders, President Javier Milei made it clear at the G20 that he does not support several points of the declaration, including promoting limitations on free speech on social media, schemes that impose and undermine the sovereignty of global governance institutions, and unequal treatment before the law,” the statement read.
Diplomats argue that a country aiming to block a document as significant as a G20 declaration should have at least one of two attributes: sufficient size or a highly important and undeniable cause. For various reasons, the United States, China, and Russia, for example, can undertake such an endeavor. For Argentina, that would be nearly impossible.
For this reason, diplomats anticipate a significant shift in the multilateral world. An outspoken opponent of multilateralism, Mr. Trump has announced plans to exit the Paris Agreement again and intends to maximize the “America First” agenda. Whether benefiting from this agenda or not, Mr. Milei promises to follow the same path and fulfill what he threatened to do in Rio. He even stayed out of the traditional photo with the group’s heads of state.
*By Murillo Camarotto, Paula Martini, Camila Zarur, Andrea Jubé, Lucianne Carneiro, Estevão Taiar — Rio de Janeiro
Source: Valor International