Supreme Court crisis adds new uncertainty to Brazil election

Analysts say the new Supreme Court crisis could energize the base of Liberal Party presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and damage President Lula’s reelection bid. At the same time, candidates seeking to break through the country’s political polarization could also benefit.

Rafael Cortez, a political scientist and partner at consultancy Tendências, sees potential damage to Lula’s candidacy because an association between the president and the Supreme Court has increasingly taken hold in public opinion. Any negative effect, however, will depend on the opposition’s ability—particularly Flávio’s campaign—to deepen that perception.

“I see a potentially negative effect, but it is not a given. Strategically, Flávio’s campaign will have to exploit the issue politically so that voters do not turn the feeling that ‘the mainstream is corrupt’ into abstention, but instead into a vote for the opposition candidate.”

Cortez said the episode could hurt the government because some voters perceive an “informal alliance” between Lula and Supreme Court justices that has resulted in the persecution of Bolsonaro supporters. He therefore believes Flávio is likely to be able to capitalize politically on the issue, since his political movement was the first to embrace an anti-establishment message.

Cortez considers the election open and believes voter turnout will determine the outcome. In that context, the Supreme Court episode could motivate some voters dissatisfied with Lula who might otherwise stay home to turn out and vote. “The chances of major changes in the current landscape are low, but in a close election, small shifts are enough to change the outcome.”

The analyst said Lula faces a paradox: despite high disapproval ratings for his government, he remains ahead in voting intentions. Cortez said the explanation lies more in the opposition’s mistakes than in Lula’s own strength.

“If the government had positive approval ratings, we could say nothing would happen [as a result of developments in the Banco Master case at the Supreme Court], but that is not what is happening. The government’s position as favorite rests on shaky foundations and reflects voters’ lack of confidence in the opposition more than support for the president. He is leading, albeit by a narrow margin, despite voters not liking his government.”

With part of the electorate tired of polarization and lacking motivation to turn out, Cortez said the new allegations involving the Supreme Court could draw some of those voters away from abstention and toward Flávio. The political scientist noted that the senator is also the target of investigations related to the Banco Master case pending before the court. “What we are seeing, ultimately, is how the Supreme Court has become drawn into Brazil’s political radicalization. In voters’ eyes, the justices themselves have become political figures.”

Cortez said the episode could lead even some voters who have reservations about Flávio to conclude that criticism from Bolsonaro supporters about the court’s conduct may have some basis. “That could lead voters who disapprove of the government to migrate toward Flávio, making the race even more evenly matched,” he said. Lula’s campaign, Cortez added, could counter the issue by emphasizing its economic agenda, including a proposal to end the six-day workweek with one day off and its message of protecting lower-income Brazilians.

Other opposition candidates could also benefit if they manage to tap into anti-establishment sentiment among part of the electorate, Cortez said. “Those who are using criticism of the Supreme Court as an electoral strategy are likely to gain. Whether that will be enough to turn the race around is another matter.”

Graziella Testa, a political scientist and professor at the Federal University of Paraná, said previous political scandals suggest that the impact of cases like this depends less on the facts themselves than on which narrative ultimately takes hold and who comes to be seen as the “villain” or the “hero.”

Testa said Flávio, who has publicly maintained a confrontational stance toward Moraes, is likely to seek electoral dividends from the episode. She cautioned, however, that there is no automatic link between the case and any change in voting intentions.

According to Testa, criticism of the Supreme Court and some of its justices remains largely divided along partisan lines, particularly among groups on the right. “I don’t think someone who doesn’t know who they are going to vote for is worried about the Supreme Court. This is an issue that mobilizes committed right-wing voters,” she said.

When asked about a possible response from Lula, Testa declined to predict the campaign’s strategy. Based on the president’s previous statements, however, she said Lula would likely argue that the investigation should be allowed to run its course before responsibility is assigned. “He is very likely to say he will wait for the outcome to determine whether anyone should be held responsible,” she said.

Testa also sees little chance that the campaign will turn the case into an in-depth debate about institutional changes to the judiciary or the Supreme Court. Although proposals along those lines may appear in campaign rhetoric, she believes electoral dynamics are more likely to encourage the personalization of the conflict.

“The campaign is very short and needs very precise messages. I think it is more likely there will be a calculation around personalization because that generates more attention and tends to produce a greater electoral payoff.”

Christopher Garman, managing director for the Americas at Eurasia, said the episode is more damaging to Lula because it overshadows issues the government had hoped to highlight positively at this stage of the campaign. The damage may be softened, however, by a widespread perception that corruption is associated with both the Workers’ Party and Liberal Party candidates.

“Voters do not see either of them as credible on corruption. The case [involving Moraes and Vorcaro] does not directly affect President Lula. Still, it is bad for him because it brings a more negative agenda and heavy news coverage at a time when the Workers’ Party campaign wants to highlight measures it says have improved people’s lives. Since neither Flávio nor Lula has credibility on corruption, that softens the direct impact [on Lula], but negative news is bad for the incumbent,” he said.

According to Garman, the scandal hit just as the government was trying to highlight its accomplishments, including the vote on a proposal to end the six-day workweek with one day off. “Voters are pessimistic about the future. And you don’t want pessimistic voters when you are seeking reelection [as Lula is]. But I don’t see this as a factor that changes the probabilities in this election.”

The allegations also competed for attention with the revelation that Vorcaro transferred more money than Flávio had previously acknowledged toward “Dark Horse,” a biographical film about Jair Bolsonaro. Garman said “it is not easy for Flávio” to distance himself from that episode. At the same time, the Eurasia analyst sees broader institutional consequences. “The scandal deepens the crisis at the Supreme Court and puts enormous pressure on Moraes.”

Carlos Melo, a political scientist and professor at Insper, urged caution in assessing the electoral impact, saying “today’s scandal is forgotten when tomorrow’s scandal arrives.” In his view, the economy and public security are the issues that most concern voters, meaning other matters may carry only marginal weight.

Independent voters are unlikely to be mobilized by Tuesday’s revelations, Melo said, because there is already fatigue with successive waves of allegations affecting both sides. “Voters inside each political bubble defend their own side at any cost and attack the other. Independent voters, meanwhile, are starting to look at all of this with a certain disdain. Bombs keep being thrown from one side’s backyard into the other’s, and one ends up canceling out the effect of the other.”

*By  Cristiane Agostine ,  Joelmir Tavares  and  Guilherme Carvalho , Valor — São Paulo

https://valorinternational.globo.com/