Centrist Social Democratic Party emerges as the big winner, electing 887 mayors; Brazilian Democratic Movement secures 854
10/28/2024
This year’s municipal election results have diluted the national polarization between President Lula and former President Jair Bolsonaro. In most of the 50 runoff contests, candidates occupying the political center emerged victorious. Those who remained strictly within their party’s ideological spectrum were largely defeated.
The centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD)—formed by dissidents from various parties, led by former São Paulo Mayor Gilberto Kassab—finished the electoral race with the highest number of municipalities, winning 887. PSD claimed victory in 9 out of 10 runoff elections, including in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba, with Fuad Noman and Eduardo Pimentel, respectively.
In terms of the number of municipalities, the also centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) ranked second, re-electing Ricardo Nunes in São Paulo and Sebastião Melo in Porto Alegre, while electing Igor Normando in Belém, totaling 854 municipalities. Regarding governed electorate size, MDB and PSD were nearly tied, with MDB overseeing 27.7 million voters and PSD 27.6 million.
“The election showcased a defined right, a defined left, and a center that’s taking shape,” Mr. Kassab said, identifying Mr. Bolsonaro as the right wing’s leader and Mr. Lula as the leader of the left. Mr. Kassab places his party, the MDB, and Brazil Union at the center, saying that the political landscape for 2026 remains open. “The issue for the center in Brazil is the lack of major options,” he said. According to Mr. Kassab, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) of São Paulo is a state leader rather than a national one. The national president of the MDB, Congressman Baleia Rossi, also mentioned to Valor on Thursday that “nothing is decided for 2026” and that “everything is open.”
Mr. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won only 6 out of 22 runoff contests. Of the 9 capitals where it competed, it secured victories in just two: Cuiabá with Abílio Brunini and Aracaju with Emília Corrêa. However, the party achieved significant results in larger country town cities, with its most crucial win in Guarulhos, the largest city in São Paulo’s metropolitan area, with Lucas Sanches. Overall, the PL governs 516 municipalities, representing 19 million voters.
Where Mr. Bolsonaro directly confronted governors in runoffs, he lost. This was the case in Goiânia, where he campaigned on the day of the election in an attempt to defeat Governor Ronaldo Caiado (Brazil Union). However, the Bolsonaro-backed candidate Fred Rodrigues (PL) lost to Sandro Mabel (Brazil Union).
Mr. Bolsonaro also faced setbacks in some capitals where the governor played no significant role in the runoff. In Manaus, he and his family actively campaigned for Capitão Alberto Neto (PL), but the winner was incumbent Mayor David Almeida (Avante). In Belo Horizonte, Mr. Bolsonaro and his political group threw their weight behind Bruno Engler, who had led in the first round. Still, Fuad Noman prevailed after a highly aggressive campaign. A newcomer to elections, Mr. Noman secured the runoff with late support from the left, but his victory was primarily attributed to his image as an experienced and mature administrator, in contrast to his opponent.
*By César Felício — São Paulo
Source Valor International