Lula seeks U.S. rapprochement ahead of 2026 election

The strategy assumes that the fewer sanctions the United States imposes on Brazil, the fewer doubts there will be internationally about the legitimacy of Brazil’s upcoming elections.

Advisers close to Mr. Lula say the move is partly motivated by concerns that Jair Bolsonaro’s political movement aims to push Mr. Trump to reject the results of Brazil’s 2026 election—an outcome that could weaken the country’s democracy in the eyes of the world. Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL of São Paulo), the former president’s son, publicly acknowledged this possibility months ago.

“I can easily foresee the United States not recognizing a Brazilian election. That would make Brazil, the entire country, subject to international sanctions. And when the U.S. imposes such sanctions, they’re often followed by the European Union, Canada, and others. I hope that doesn’t happen,” said Eduardo in March.

Until recently, officials in Brasília were convinced that Mr. Trump would use his political leverage to undermine Mr. Lula’s reelection bid. Now, however, they believe the government has managed to shift the dynamic and must handle ongoing talks “with caution” to preserve the positive momentum in bilateral relations through next year.

The diplomatic effort is being coordinated by Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin. Mr. Vieira is expected to meet personally with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the coming days. Mr. Haddad was also scheduled to travel to Washington but canceled the trip to focus on alternatives to a provisional presidential decree overturned last week—an event that removed more than R$40 billion from next year’s federal budget.

For now, the presidential palace is focused on damage control. Officials are wary of Mr. Trump’s unpredictable behavior, given his sudden policy shifts in cases such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “There’s no guarantee,” said one government insider, “that the U.S. president will maintain his friendly tone toward Brazil through the election period.”

Meanwhile, little has changed in practical terms: Brazilian goods remain subject to 50% tariffs, and national institutions continue to face sanctions under the Magnitsky Act.

“At this point, the Lula administration is celebrating the fact that it received a positive initial response, even though no concrete discussion of sanctions or concessions has taken place. We must remember that trade relations with the United States remain very poor,” said Benny Spiewak, an international law expert with a master’s degree from George Washington University and partner at SPLAW Advogados. “If the election were held tomorrow, the tone of the U.S. statement would clearly be critical of Lula’s potential reelection,” Mt. Spiewak added. “The Itamaraty [Brazil’s Foreign Ministry] will have to work hard to resolve—or at least give the impression it is resolving—these issues before then.”