If the measure moves forward in Congress, seven state caucuses would gain seats, while seven others would lose
10/14/2024
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Following the progression of measures aimed at curbing the powers of the Supreme Court and the anticipated approval of a bill granting amnesty to participants in January’s coup-mongering acts, the Lower House’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) has a new controversial topic on its agenda. The committee is considering a proposal to adjust the size of congressional caucuses based on the 2022 Census results.
If the proposal advances in Congress, seven state caucuses would increase in size, while another seven would see a reduction in their number of seats.
Speaking to Valor, CCJ Chair Caroline de Toni said the topic will be a priority for the committee in the coming months to prevent the Electoral Court from intervening due to legislative inaction. “It will be our priority. If we don’t regulate it, the TSE [Superior Electoral Court] will,” Ms. de Toni said.
In the proposed new composition of the Lower House, Santa Catarina, the state of the CCJ chair, and Pará would each gain four seats, bringing their totals to 20 and 21, respectively. Meanwhile, the caucus from Amazonas would increase to 10 from 8 legislators, and Ceará, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso would each gain one additional lawmaker.
Conversely, Rio de Janeiro would lose four seats, dropping to 42 from 46, while the caucuses from Bahia, Paraíba, Piauí, and Rio Grande do Sul would each lose two seats. Alagoas and Pernambuco would each elect one fewer legislator.
Alagoas is the state of the current Lower House speaker, Arthur Lira. Bahia and Paraíba are home to the three main contenders to succeed Mr. Lira in 2025: Hugo Motta (Paraíba), Elmar Nascimento (Bahia), and Antonio Brito (Bahia), leaders of the Republicans, Brazil Union, and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in the House, respectively.
Thirteen other states—Acre, Amapá, Federal District, Espírito Santo, Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia, Roraima, Sergipe, São Paulo, and Tocantins—would retain their current caucus sizes.
If the proposal progresses through both the Lower House and Senate, the new configuration will take effect starting in 2027, directly impacting the 2026 elections.
No adjustments have been made since 1993, and the Supreme Court has given Congress a deadline to redistribute seats.
The Constitution stipulates that each state must have between 8 and 70 congresspeople, based on its population size. The last adjustment was made in 1993.
The proposal also suggests that in the year preceding each election, the number of seats should be automatically adjusted according to the latest population data.
In August last year, the Supreme Court unanimously voted to require Congress to redistribute the seats each state holds in the Lower House by June 30, 2025. In his opinion, Justice Luiz Fux outlined that the Lower House should consider the maximum number of legislators, currently 513, along with the latest Census data.
The Court also decided that if Congress fails to pass the supplementary law by the stipulated deadline, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) must determine the number of legislators for each state and the Federal District by October 1, 2025.
During a public hearing requested by rapporteur Danilo Forte, participants highlighted the necessity of revisiting the seat distribution but also noted potential challenges, such as the conflict between states losing and gaining seats, the lack of public support for increasing the overall number of legislators, and the need for compliance with constitutional principles in the distribution.
At the close of the hearing, Mr. Forte emphasized the need for the legislature to act decisively. “I urge [the congresspeople] to help me devise a solution to this issue before the TSE steps in for us.”
*By Marcelo Ribeiro, Raphael Di Cunto — Brasília
Source: Valor International