Asian countries gain ground while Argentina plummets from fourth place in 2023 to 60th in 2024
02/12/2025
Brazil ended 2024 with a trade surplus 25% lower than the previous year and a reduced contribution from its neighbors. The list of the ten countries that generated Brazil’s largest trade surpluses in 2024 no longer includes any Latin American nations. In 2023, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico were part of this ranking. The surplus with these three countries shrank as exports declined and imports grew, driven by domestic demand.
China remained at the top of the list in 2024, although with a smaller surplus, followed by three Southeast Asian nations. Among them, Singapore—a city-state with around 6 million inhabitants—held onto third place, as it did in 2023. Malaysia and Indonesia, in ninth and tenth positions, respectively, were also present in the ranking last year but swapped places in 2024. Newcomers to the top ten were Egypt and Iran, ranking seventh and eighth, up from 16th and 12th places in 2023, respectively.
In a year when exports fell by 0.8% and imports rose by 9%, Brazil’s total trade surplus dropped to $74.2 billion in 2024, down from $98.9 billion in 2023. South America, which was the second-largest source of surplus for Brazil in 2023, slipped to fourth place in 2024, overtaken by the Middle East and Africa. Asia retained its lead for both years.
Argentina plummets
Among the Latin American countries that dropped out of the top ten, Argentina—historically a key market for Brazilian manufactured goods—had the smallest trade surplus with Brazil in 2024. The positive balance of $4.71 billion in 2023 dropped to just $201 million in 2024, pushing the country from fourth place in 2023 to 60th in 2024. Brazilian exports to Argentina fell 17.6% year over year, while imports from Argentina rose 13.2%.
A major factor behind this shift was an atypical surge in soybean exports to Argentina in 2023, which did not repeat in 2024, noted José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB).
Due to a poor harvest, Argentina had to import soybeans to fulfill its export contracts. In 2023, Brazil sold $2 billion worth of soybeans to Argentina, accounting for 12% of the total exports to the country that year. In 2024, shipments returned to normal levels, totaling just $90 million. Meanwhile, Brazilian imports from Argentina were driven by automobiles.
Livio Ribeiro, partner at BRCG and researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre), pointed out that Argentina is undergoing a severe income contraction. “In reality, the country is redefining itself as much poorer than previously perceived. Trade levels are adjusting in the short term between Argentina and the rest of the world, and its share in Brazil’s export agenda is shrinking.”
Brazil’s trade surplus with Chile also shrank, from $3.63 billion in 2023 to $1.71 billion in 2024, pushing the country from sixth place to 18th. Petroleum is Brazil’s main export to Chile, accounting for 29% of total shipments. In 2024, Brazil exported $1.92 billion worth of oil to Chile, a 38% drop from 2023, which drove an overall 16.2% decline in exports to the country. Meanwhile, imports from Chile rose by 14.8%, mainly due to increased copper purchases.
With Mexico, Brazil’s trade surplus shrank from $3 billion in 2023 to $2 billion in 2024, moving Mexico down from seventh to 15th place. This decline resulted from a 9% drop in exports and a 4% increase in imports.
Mexico, another key destination for Brazilian manufactured goods, imported $715 million worth of automobiles from Brazil in 2024. While cars remained Brazil’s top export to Mexico, sales fell 35% from 2023. Meanwhile, Brazilian imports of vehicle parts and accessories from Mexico rose by 22.3%.
Welber Barral, partner at BMJ and former foreign trade secretary, noted that Brazil and Mexico have a longstanding trade agreement primarily focused on the automotive sector. “There’s a proposal to expand the agreement to include more products, but one major obstacle is Mexico’s protectionist stance on agriculture,” he said.
Mr. Barral added that the more aggressive trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump toward the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—the updated version of NAFTA negotiated during his first term and set for review in 2026—could push Mexico to revisit trade talks with Brazil. “It would be an opportunity, though the trade instability caused by Trump’s new tariffs is bad for the entire world,” he said.
Growing influence
For Mr. Ribeiro of BRCG, the decline in trade surpluses with Latin American countries is part of a broader shift in which Brazil is losing its traditionally captive regional market to China. “This is particularly evident in 2024, as China ramped up its exports—especially toward the end of the year—anticipating a worsening trade war,” he said, referring to the expected escalation of tensions between China and the U.S.
Looking ahead, Mr. Ribeiro said the key question is how global trade will balance in 2025. “The 2024 trade agenda was influenced by specific factors, but overall, Brazil remains a major commodity supplier, primarily to Asia. It also exports some industrial products to the Americas, but these are increasingly being replaced by Chinese goods.”
Despite its decline in 2024, Brazil’s trade surplus with China remains by far the largest among all partners, totaling $30.73 billion, down from $51.15 billion in 2023. The drop was driven by both lower exports, which fell to $94.4 billion (nearly $10 billion less than in 2023), and higher imports, which rose from $53.2 billion in 2023 to $63.6 billion in 2024.
Government data indicate that soybean exports accounted for much of the decline in shipments to China. In 2023, amid a record grain harvest, Brazil exported $38.9 billion worth of soybeans to China. In 2024, with lower agricultural production, sales fell to $31.5 billion. Shipments of oil and iron ore remained relatively stable, and together, these three products made up 75% of Brazil’s total exports to China in 2024.
Commodity prices played a significant role in these trends. The average price of crude oil exports fell by 4.4% in 2024, while iron ore prices declined by 5.2%. Soybean prices plummeted by 16.9%, further affecting trade values. Meanwhile, China’s GDP growth remained stable, rising by 5.2% in 2023 and 5% in 2024.
The surge in Brazilian imports from China was driven by domestic demand and China’s strategy to redirect its excess supply to new markets amid rising protectionist measures from the U.S. and Europe. In 2024, Chinese cars took advantage of favorable tariffs and stood out in Brazil’s import data. Boosted by electric and hybrid models, Brazil imported $3.1 billion worth of Chinese automobiles in 2024—triple the value of 2023.
For Mr. Castro of AEB, Brazil’s trade surpluses with China, as well as with countries like Egypt and Iran in 2024, reflect strong commodity sales. The top export to Egypt was corn, followed by sugar and molasses. For Iran, Brazil’s main exports were corn, soybeans, and soybean meal.
Singapore, which ranked third in trade surpluses with Brazil in both 2023 and 2024, serves as a key re-export hub, particularly for China and Southeast Asia. The Netherlands, which held second place both years, plays a similar role for the European Union.
*By Marta Watanabe e Álvaro Fagundes — São Paulo
Source: Valor International