Brazilian planemaker sees opportunity amid global supply constraints, trade tensions
05/07/2025
Global turbulence caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and ongoing supply chain issues in the aviation sector have opened new opportunities for Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer, particularly in Asia, according to the company’s CEO, Francisco Gomes Neto.
Mr. Gomes told Valor that rising global demand for aircraft could bring the company’s commercial jet deliveries close to 100 units by 2026—levels last seen before a wave of industry crises.
Embraer posted R$6.4 billion in revenue in the first quarter, the highest since 2016 and a 44% increase year over year. Net income reached R$434 million, up 204.1%. The company’s backlog currently stands at $26.4 billion, the largest in its history.
Shares rose 0.8% on Tuesday (6) to R$66.46, bringing the 12-month gain to 93%, according to Valor Data.
Asia has emerged as a key region for Embraer’s expansion, particularly China—the world’s second-largest aviation market behind the U.S. “We see huge potential for the E2 [Embraer’s new-generation jet], which fits right between Comac’s models,” Mr. Gomes said, referring to the Chinese state-owned competitor. “Comac wants to protect its market, but we are working directly with customers.”
To strengthen its presence in China, Embraer recently hired Patrick Peng, a former Airbus and GE executive, to lead business development efforts in the region.
While Comac offers aircraft with seating for either 80 or over 160 passengers, Embraer’s jets range from 110 to 146 seats. The company already operates a fleet of around 90 aircraft in China, mainly ERJ-145s and E190s.
Meanwhile, Boeing—Embraer’s American rival—has taken a direct hit from the U.S.-China trade dispute, with President Xi Jinping’s government halting deliveries of Boeing aircraft to Chinese buyers. The decision, affecting roughly a quarter of Boeing’s production, triggered a sharp drop in the company’s stock. Boeing executives have since broken protocol by publicly confirming they are seeking alternative buyers for those jets.
Mr. Gomes emphasized that Embraer’s presence in Asia predates recent trade conflicts. This year, the company marks 25 years of operations in China. Beyond China, Embraer delivered its first E195-E2 jet in April to Mongolia’s Hunnu Air, which ordered two aircraft for routes to Beijing—a move Mr. Gomes says will help showcase the model within China.
“Embraer is also in dialogue with governments. China mainly imports commodities from Brazil and exports electric vehicles and mobile phone components. We’ll be part of a Brazilian trade mission to China this May,” the CEO said.
He noted that persistent supply chain disruptions continue to delay deliveries of larger aircraft, with lead times exceeding five years in some cases for models from Boeing and France’s Airbus. This bottleneck, combined with soaring demand for air travel, is pushing airlines to explore alternatives to wide-body jets.
Embraer gained attention last year when American Airlines signed a deal to purchase up to 133 E175 jets, a contract valued at over $7 billion. Meanwhile, Boeing continues to grapple with the fallout from repeated issues with its flagship 737 Max model.
Despite a favorable demand environment, Embraer is not immune to global economic headwinds. The company recently warned investors that a 10% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports could reduce its EBIT margin by as much as 0.9 percentage points this year.
The executive jet segment—where components are shipped from Brazil to the U.S. for final assembly—will bear the brunt of the impact. The company is implementing cost-cutting and efficiency measures to offset the tariff burden.
Nevertheless, Embraer maintained its 2025 delivery forecast: 145 to 155 jets in the executive segment, and 77 to 85 jets in the commercial segment.
While next year’s targets have yet to be released, Mr. Gomes said he sees room to deliver between 90 and 100 commercial jets in 2026, with the potential to surpass that level in 2027. The company last hit that volume in 2017, before the pandemic and the collapse of its proposed commercial aviation joint venture with Boeing—a dispute resolved only in 2024 through arbitration, which awarded Embraer $150 million in compensation.
Looking ahead, the CEO expressed optimism about securing a defense contract with India for the KC-390 military transport aircraft. Embraer is also seeking to expand the model’s presence in the U.S. The company recently participated in U.S.-based trade shows and concluded a market strategy project with consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
*By Cristian Favaro — São Paulo
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/