State Climate Change Yearbook reveals emission levels per million reais produced in each Brazilian state
01/29/2025
The more diversified the economy of Brazilian states and the more it leans towards services and industries, the more stable and lower the carbon intensity of the state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) becomes over the years. This is the key finding of the first State Climate Change Yearbook.
Developed by the Centro Brasil no Clima (CBC) and the Instituto Clima e Sociedade (iCS), with support from Itaúsa, the study compiles data on emissions, climate risks, and mitigation and adaptation policies and actions across various sectors of the economy in Brazil’s 27 federative units. From 2025 onwards, the publication will be updated annually.
In 2022, the six federative entities emitting the most carbon per million reais generated had economies based on agriculture and cattle management: Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Pará, Maranhão, and Tocantins. Not surprisingly, these are located in the Legal Amazon, where the highest emissions stem from deforestation and agriculture. Amazonas, also part of this geopolitical zone, ranked ninth in 2022. The exceptions are Roraima and Amapá, which appear at the bottom of the ranking.
These states aren’t necessarily the country’s main emitters, as the carbon intensity of GDP considers the ratio between each federative entity’s net annual carbon dioxide emissions (tCO2e) and its respective GDP.
This is the case for Acre, which, despite having a median level of emissions compared to others, leads the ranking due to its small GDP. Meanwhile, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, with high and intermediate emissions respectively, ranked among the lowest carbon intensity rates of GDP in 2022 (24th and 23rd positions), due to their large GDPs.
“When we analyze different states, we see that their economic matrix lead to vastly different carbon intensities and distinct land-use change requirements,” said Walter De Simoni, climate policy, institutions, and law manager at the iCS.
The emissions landscape across Brazilian states helps explain the country’s overall pattern—placing Brazil among the world’s top ten greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. The majority of the country’s emissions (about 75%) stem from land-use changes and agriculture.
Guilherme Syrkis, executive director of CBC, adds that Brazil’s diverse regions have varying sources of emissions. “Poorer states tend to have higher emissions from deforestation and agriculture, whereas wealthier states see greater emissions from transportation, industry, and energy production,” he noted.
According to Fernanda Westin, a senior researcher and consultant at CBC, deforestation fluctuations from year to year significantly impact the carbon intensity of GDP in states heavily reliant on land use. Roraima exemplifies this trend, dropping from sixth place in 2021 to second-to-last in 2022.
Ms. Westin also pointed out that negative emissions can be achieved through carbon offsetting, “Carbon removals occur when forests are planted, and high-yield agriculture and pastures absorb CO₂ as vegetation grows,” she said.
The annual report further indicates that there is no direct correlation between a state’s net carbon emissions and the size of its GDP. For example, Mato Grosso leads the nation in emissions but ranks only 11th in GDP, according to the 2022 data presented in the report.
William Wills, CBC’s project director, emphasizes that the report is not meant to compare states—each with unique characteristics, histories, and future projections—but rather to highlight public policies being implemented so that civil society can monitor and advocate for change. “This helps push for a leveling-up process so that all states build the capacity to tackle climate change,” he says.
The goal, Mr. Syrkis adds, is to institutionalize best practices and demonstrate that states attracting the most green investments have structured climate and environmental policies. Seven Brazilian states currently have dedicated climate funds in operation or development: Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Amazonas, Rondônia, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Tocantins.
“Espírito Santo and Mato Grosso do Sul have stood out with promising policies and are becoming favorites of institutions like the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the World Bank, the European Bank, and Brazil’s BNDES. These banks follow a checklist, reviewing the entire multi-year planning process, including climate policies,” said Mr. Syrkis.
*By Victoria Netto — Rio de Janeiro
Source: Valor International