Acceleration started in the second half of 2023; country becomes relevant customer for China

04/08/2024

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Gabriela Faria — Foto: Gabriel Reis/Valor

China accelerated exports of vehicles in the first quarter of the year and led the external supply of cars to Brazil. The Asian country, which is now the world’s largest producer of automobiles, accounted for 39% of passenger vehicles imported by Brazil from January to March 2024, up from 10.3% in the same period last year. Argentina, historically the largest supplier of vehicles to Brazil, saw its share fall to 16% this year from 40.2% in 2023. Mexico ranks third, with a share of 12.1% in the first quarter of 2024, compared with 13.6% in the same period of 2023.

In the full year 2023, Argentina ranked first in car sales to Brazil, with $2.24 billion, up 9.8% from the previous year. In the second half of 2023, China accelerated vehicle sales to Brazil, ending the year in second place with $1.09 billion, compared to $186.7 million in 2022.

From January to March 2024, of the $1.46 billion in Brazilian foreign purchases of automobiles, $569.9 million came from China. The figure is more than five times the $102.9 million for the same period in 2023 and more than half of what Brazil bought in cars from China last year. China’s fast pace also boosted the total import of passenger cars by Brazil, which grew 46.4% year over year in the first quarter.

Argentina shipped $234.6 million to Brazil in the first quarter, down 42% year over year. Mexico exported $176.3 million to Brazil from January to March.

China’s official export figures also indicate that Brazil has gained ground in the country’s car exports. Brazil, which was the nineteenth destination for passenger vehicles shipped by China in the first two months of 2023, ranked fifth in the same period this year, behind Russia, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Mexico.

Imports from China stand out because they are growing much faster pace than the domestic market, said José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB). According to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX/MDIC), more than 60% of cars imported from China in the first quarter of the year are fully electric. “The data show a strategy for a new landscape with China working to gain ground in this market,” he said.

Davi Gonçalves, an analyst specializing in the automotive sector at Tendências, a São Paulo-based consultancy, recalled that imports of Chinese electric and hybrid vehicles grew last year, especially in the fourth quarter.

“The flow remained strong despite the introduction of an import tax in January and is likely to remain so in the short term. Among the cyclical factors that favor the category is the increased interest of Brazilian consumers in high-tech, renewable energy cars amid a more favorable environment for products aimed at high-income individuals,” he said.

The competitive prices of Chinese automakers and Brazil’s weak production of these vehicles also play a role, said Mr. Gonçalves.

With the result seen from January to March, vehicles became Brazil’s second most imported item from China and helped to boost total purchases from the Asian country. While the value of Brazilian imports fell 1.8% from January to March compared to the same months in 2023, the arrival of products made in China grew 14% in value, according to SECEX. The growth was driven by a 40.2% increase in volume. There was a 17.6% drop in average import prices.

Gabriela Faria, an economist at Tendências, recalls that the reduction in prices in Chinese imports combines a more general scenario of price reduction after the shocks that put pressure on global inflation with a specific situation in China, which has been experiencing “deflation.” “China expanded its production capacity, but there was no local demand to absorb the supply. Prices fell as a result, including those of the products it exports,” he said.

Several other countries have seen China grab a larger share of their car imports, said Mr. Gonçalves. “Although levels are expected to remain historically high throughout the year, some obstacles limit the pace of expansion,” he said. In addition to the Import Tax, Mr. Gonçalves cited the expected increase in domestic production, which includes the start of operations by Chinese automakers in Brazil between the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Following a decision by the Brazilian government, electric cars started paying 10% of Import Tax in January 2024. The rate is expected to rise gradually until it reaches 35% in July 2026.

China has increased exports of several items and one is cars, which has raised protection policies in several countries, said Livio Ribeiro, a partner at BRCG consultancy and researcher at Fundação Getulio Vargas’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV). For instance, Brazil protected its industry by increasing the Import Tax rate.

“In the specific case of Brazil, one element seems different. The Brazilian car industry is a 60-year-old baby reliant on Brasília for protection. However, the government has an interest in absorbing Chinese companies. So, the government imposed an import tax, but paved the way for these companies to bring part of their production here, which is not an immediate process,” he said.

Brazil’s higher auto imports reflect one of Beijing’s directives to elevate China’s position in value chains, said Mr. Ribeiro.

“China is driving a technological densification of exports worldwide, and vehicles are no exception,” he said.

“China is already at the point of exporting factories as well, following the example of other Asian countries, but much faster.”

Korea’s Hyundai is an example of success in this regard, he said. “I think China wants to do something similar. One difference is that electric cars cater to a niche demand, whereas previous experiences focused on mass production,” he said.

On the other hand, Argentina’s lost ground in Brazil’s car imports shows that one should not treat both countries’ automotive industries separately, said Mr. Ribeiro.

“It’s actually a single industry spread across two countries. With the crisis in Argentina, there is a movement to produce in Brazil rather than there, and this seems more evident in mass production cars with a higher volume of production,” he said.

The slowdown in domestic demand in Argentina is not the only reason, he said. Insecurity about some conditions during the presidential transition, such as labor union negotiations, also played a role.

*Por Marta Watanabe — São Paulo

Source: Valor Inaernational

https://valorinternational.globo.com/