Lula’s approval rating halts upward trend, poll shows

The slight declines, within the survey’s margin of error, come as the Lula administration faces growing pressure to engage in the public security debate following a major police operation in Rio de Janeiro last month that left 121 people dead.

Disapproval increased across three of Brazil’s regions: to 38% from 36% in the Northeast region, to 53% from 52% in the Southeast, and to 61% from 56% in the South. On the other hand, the disapproval rating fell in the North/Central-West region, to 51% from 55%.

The Lula administration’s approval ratings also shifted within the margin of error. The share of those who rate the government as “poor” rose to 38% from 37%, while positive evaluations dropped to 31% from 33%. The share describing the administration as “average” went to 28% from 27%.

The survey interviewed 2,004 people between November 6 and 9 and has a two-point margin of error, up or down.

The November results interrupted a recovery trend for Mr. Lula that Quaest had been recording since midyear. July marked the start of a more active federal response to U.S. threats of higher tariffs on Brazilian goods and possible sanctions against Brazilian officials involved in the legal case against former President Jair Bolsonaro over his role in an attempted coup.

According to the pollster, the loss of momentum reflects the fallout from the large-scale police action in Rio. The aftermath of Operation Contenção reignited debate over how to tackle organized crime and highlighted differences between the Lula administration and opposition groups.

Although Mr. Lula described the operation as “disastrous,” 67% of respondents approved of the police action, while 25% disapproved. When asked whether the police used excessive force, 67% said no, compared with 29% who believed they did.

Concern about violence rose notably between October and November, with 38% of respondents naming it as Brazil’s most pressing issue, compared with 30% in the previous poll.

Lula and Trump

President Lula’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on October 26 to discuss the tariff dispute was known to 65% of respondents.

Among those surveyed, 45% said the encounter strengthened Mr. Lula politically, 30% said it weakened him, and 10% saw no change. A majority (51%) believe both leaders will reach an agreement to reduce tariffs, while 39% think they will not.

Economy and prices

Perceptions of the economy, which had been a key driver of negative evaluations of the government, remained mostly stable in November, showing mild signs of improvement for Mr. Lula.

According to the latest poll, 43% of respondents still believe the economy has worsened over the past 12 months, nearly unchanged from 42% in October. However, the share who see improvement rose from 21% to 24%, while those who believe it has stayed the same fell to 32% from 35%.

When asked about food prices, 58% said they had risen in the month prior to the survey, down from 63% in October. Another 23% said prices remained stable (up from 21%), and 27% said they had fallen (up from 15%).