July stock picks dominated by risk-averse plays

Itaú retained its position at the top of the list, this time sharing the lead with Telefônica Brasil (Vivo), a new entry. Both stocks received four recommendations. Analysts at Ágora highlighted Telefônica as Brazil’s largest mobile telecom provider, with 98 million subscribers and a 39% market share. After a disappointing Q4 2024, its first-quarter 2025 results offered “a welcome relief,” with revenue, EBITDA, and net income showing strong trends.

BTG Pactual and Banco do Brasil also remained on the list with three mentions each, while Bradesco reappeared with two. Bank stocks are often viewed as reliable even in volatile markets, making them a lower-risk option in equity portfolios.

Utilities—considered safer investments due to stable, recurring revenue streams—were also prominently featured. In addition to Telefônica, analysts recommended Copel (three mentions), a new addition this month, and Sabesp (two mentions), which returned to the list. Ágora’s team pointed to Copel’s “solid fundamentals” and noted that the company’s new capital structure policy, unveiled in May along with Q1 results, should support attractive dividend payments and help lift its stock price.

Rounding out the list were exporters such as Prio, which remained a favorite, and Embraer, which returned after not being included in June. Both were selected by three brokerages. These companies earn a significant share of their revenue abroad, offering investors a natural hedge against domestic market risks.

Carteira Valor compiles the ten most-recommended stocks among participating brokerages. Each firm selects five stocks, and the ranking is based on frequency of recommendations from a pool of 16 institutions.

In the event of a tie, stocks with higher average trading volume over the past 90 business days are ranked higher. Monthly returns are calculated based on the simple average performance of the selected stocks, with no weighting.

Brokerages contributing to Carteira Valor include: Ágora, Andbank, Ativa, Banco Daycoval, BB Investimentos, Benndorf Research, CM Capital, Genial, Monte Bravo, Nova Futura, Planner, Safra, Santander, Terra Investimentos, and XP Investimentos. Pagbank did not participate in June due to internal restructuring.

In June, the Carteira Valor portfolio rose 0.27%, compared to a 1.33% gain in the Ibovespa. Year-to-date, the portfolio is up 6.17%, versus a 15.44% gain for the Ibovespa. Over 12 months, the portfolio gained 6.28%, while the benchmark index rose 12.06%.