Substantial growth in renewable energy generation in Brazil’s North and Northeast, mainly from solar and wind sources, may create bottlenecks in the flow of energy to other regions. The mismatch between the new generation and transmission projects going online reveals how outlining plans for the electricity sector is increasingly complex amid the energy transition drive and the search for greener sources.
Brazil’s national grid operator ONS says that the great challenge to make feasible the use of all the potential of the Northeast region is the mismatch between the deadlines of the generation and transmission projects. While setting up transmission lines usually takes seven years, solar and wind farms need only two years.
The lack of synchrony between new transmission and generation projects may lead to a surplus of power of 5.5 GW in the North and Northeast until 2026, the ONS warned in the medium-term plan of the electrical operation of the National Interconnected System (SIN) released this week.
Luiz Barroso, CEO of the consultancy PSR and a former head of the Energy Research Company (EPE), said that the issue reflects the changes that the sector has undergone in recent years. Transmission projects used to come into operation faster than the hydroelectric and thermoelectric generation plants. Now that renewable power grabbed an increasing share in the generation mix, the opposite is true.
“Today, it is necessary to plan the transmission with greater uncertainty about generation. The interface between the projects has become more complex, due to the uncertainty in the location of the new plants and the greater speed in implementing the projects, as well as the difficulties to get environmental permits for transmission projects,” he said.
For him, the scenario will require more proactivity from the planning bodies to point out the transmission projects that will be auctioned in the next few years, as well as an effective action from the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) to guarantee the entry into operation within the deadlines.
According to Mr. Barroso, there is already an effort underway at EPE to improve the planning methodologies, considering the greater complexity of the sector. He recalled that Brazil is one of the most attractive countries for investments in this segment. Data from ANEEL indicate that the transmission projects auctioned between 1999 and 2021 total R$275.2 billion in investments, with values updated for inflation.
“It is important not only to build the transmission infrastructure but to build it in the right places, where the lines add value. The lack of transmission can prevent the development of renewable projects in areas that could have value for the system,” Mr. Barroso said.
Source: Valor international