Iron ore outlook for 2025 fuels pessimism for sector stocks; banks slash target prices
01/08/2025
Vale’s market capitalization dropped below $40 billion for the first time since 2016, according to Citi, and continued to decline on Monday (6), reaching $36.8 billion, based on Valor Data. Brazil’s mining giant now lags significantly behind its Australian competitors, BHP Billiton, valued at $124.2 billion, and Rio Tinto, at $96.5 billion.
On Monday, Citi and Jefferies both announced cuts to their target prices for Vale’s New York-traded American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Both banks cited pessimism over iron ore’s outlook for 2025, driven by expectations of slower economic growth in China this year.
Citi reduced its target price for Vale from $15 to $12, while Jefferies lowered its projection from $14 to $11. Jefferies also downgraded its expectations for CSN Mineração.
Despite the downward revisions, the new targets still reflect potential upside from Vale’s current stock price. On Monday, Vale’s ADRs closed at $8.62 in New York, a 0.12% decline, while in Brazil, shares fell 1.28% to R$52.56. Meanwhile, iron ore prices dropped 2.21% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, settling at $102.65 per tonne.
A market source noted that bank projections tend to prioritize Chinese economic data over Vale’s internal fundamentals. For years, the miner has been considered a mirror of global iron ore market trends. Vale declined to comment.
Iron ore outlook
Citi estimates that iron ore prices will average $95 per tonne in 2025, down from $106.73 per tonne at the close of 2024. The bank foresees a balanced supply and demand scenario, assuming that China’s crude steel production has peaked and will gradually decline. Stronger supply from Brazil and Australia is expected to put pressure on other producers to cut output.
According to Citi, Vale could counter this pessimism by accelerating cash generation and increasing shareholder payouts.
Jefferies also painted a bleak outlook, predicting that prices for major metal commodities are unlikely to recover in 2025 due to global macroeconomic pressures. The bank expects stronger demand only between 2026 and 2027, which could lift commodity prices and boost sector stocks.
In November 2024, UBS lowered its target price for Vale from $14 to $11.50. While acknowledging the company’s progress, such as its R$170 billion settlement for the Mariana dam disaster and its leadership transition, UBS expressed concern about the medium-term fundamentals for iron ore. “In our view, China’s steel exports are vulnerable to global restrictions and are unlikely to be fully offset by government stimulus,” UBS wrote.
UBS projects iron ore prices to hover around $100 per tonne in 2025, with a potential drop to the $80–$90 range. In a December report, UBS reiterated its concerns, particularly highlighting the anticipated tariff war targeting Chinese products following Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president. UBS also recognized Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta’s improvements in operational performance since taking office in October but cautioned that returns between 2025 and 2026 could be limited due to the company’s heavy financial commitments.
Not all analysts share the pessimistic outlook. Santander’s head of mining research, Yuri Pereira, is more optimistic about 2025. Santander maintained its $15 price target for Vale’s ADRs and projected iron ore prices at $115 per tonne.
Mr. Pereira does not expect a significant increase in supply from the world’s top players, which should help stabilize prices. “Everything depends on iron ore prices and each company’s strategy. Prices could rise, prompting companies to boost production to take advantage, but the market has been fairly balanced,” he said in an interview with Valor.
* By Kariny Leal e Felipe Laurence — Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo
Source: Valor International