After more than two years without initial public offerings, the chance for companies to debut on the stock exchange may come only at the end of the year
04/09/2024
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Roderick Greenlees — Foto: Gabriel Reis/Valor
The delay by the U.S. Federal Reserve in implementing monetary easing, along with the resulting market volatility caused by this uncertainty, has postponed the reopening of Brazil’s initial public offering market after more than two years of dormancy. While initially anticipated for the period between April and June, forecasts now suggest that the IPO window will likely open in the second half of the year. However, some projections extend this timeline to between September and December, with most operations potentially being launched in February 2025.
Roderick Greenlees, the global head of Itaú BBA’s investment bank, currently maintains his estimate of three to five primary issues this year. If follow-on offerings are considered—when listed companies make new offerings—the total reaches 25 to 35 operations, with a volume ranging between R$35 billion and R$50 billion. Mr. Greenlees states that if the initial cut in U.S. interest rates does not occur in June, he will revise the forecasts.
“There is a huge pent-up demand from both issuers and investors. We have good companies wanting to tap the market,” said Mr. Greenlees. Among the candidates for going public are Inspirali, a medical school business within the Ânima educational group, construction companies Pacaembu and Tegra, and Cimed, the country’s third-largest pharmaceutical company by volume. Cimed has already indicated that its offering may be delayed until 2025. The market is also anticipating the arrival of sanitation company Aegea and cement maker Votorantim Cimentos, among others.
Marcelo Millen, head of Citi’s equity division in Latin America, states that the bank has been in discussions with “a number of companies” preparing to go public this year. He declined to disclose the sectors, but mentioned that the companies share common characteristics: they are “large, valued at least R$5 billion, with a strong track record of execution, and resilience in delivering results.” Additionally, he said that they intend to launch an offering of at least R$2 billion to ensure liquidity in the secondary market. “We are optimistic about interest rate cuts in the United States,” he said.
The executive mentioned that the U.S. market has been facing challenges but is now exhibiting a gradual rebound. In March, there was euphoria surrounding the IPO of Reddit, a social media and news-sharing platform, which closed at the top of its price range and subsequently rose almost 50% on its first day of trading. It is expected to be a kind of pioneer, but since 2024 is an election year, he said, the U.S. market will have fewer windows for offerings.
According to Mr. Greenlees, therefore, it is a matter of time to launch the first offering in Brazil since 2021. He mentions that many companies have maintained up-to-date public records, giving them an advantage as they can initiate the offering process within three weeks. Those who do not have the process ready need three to six months, depending on the stage of the company.
“So the timeline begins to compress. I initially anticipated one or two offerings in the second quarter, but I no longer consider that possibility. The risk of there being no offerings is low now,” said Mr. Greenlees. Victor Rosa, head of Scotiabank Brazil’s investment bank, explains that the stock market is highly sensitive to predictability. Therefore, if any factor disrupts expectations, it could potentially postpone the market opening until the end of the year or even into 2025.
Rodrigo Guedes, lead partner of equity capital markets at KPMG Brazil, remarks that the company has secured four new mandates, signed at the end of January. He sees potential investment opportunities in infrastructure and logistics, sanitation, financial services (fintechs), non-electronic retail, industry, and agriculture.
The offerings managed by consultancy Grant Thornton exhibit a similar profile, encompassing companies in sectors such as biotechnology and civil construction. Five companies have nearly finalized their processes and are now awaiting the opening of the window. Additionally, Octavio Zampirollo, an audit partner at the company, mentioned that four new candidates arrived at the beginning of the year. At G5 Partners, partner Levindo Santos stated that two mandates were signed in February, stemming from dormant conversations initiated two years ago. These discussions were reactivated due to the improved market conditions.
Mr. Greenlees mentioned, “We have interesting operations that will enter the market with first-quarter numbers, made even more favorable due to falling interest rates.” These sectors are also known for having less risk and greater liquidity, which is appealing to foreign investors, said Mr. Rosa. According to Mr. Guedes, since 2020, there has been a reversal in foreign participation in offerings, which previously ranged from 60% to 70%. Domestic investors have now assumed greater prominence.
He expects the reopening of the market to occur “closer to December,” as setting the price of the offering in September would require the company to be ready within a month and a half. “With the complex international economic and geopolitical situation, I don’t know if we have many ready. If the windows for IPOs are missed this year, the next opportunity will be in February 2025.”
Mr. Millen of Citi says he already sees investors willing to consider IPO opportunities. He stressed that the market is “fully functional for follow-on offerings.” Mr. Guedes of KPMG noted that the profile of secondary offerings this year will also begin to change, with an increase in operations aimed at investment objectives, whereas last year they were primarily focused on reducing indebtedness.
There were only five offerings until March. One was Energisa, which raised R$2.5 billion. The proceeds will be used, in addition to reducing leverage, for investments in concessions and potential mergers and acquisitions. “In the coming months, we will continue to see transactions aimed at capitalizing companies, as well as those for new projects and investments,” said Mr. Greenlees.
*Por Liane Thedim — Rio de Janeiro
Source: Valor International