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Murray News

Trump era prompts Brazil to adjust foreign policy

Focus shifts from UN reforms to preserving multilateral system, diplomats say publicly and privately

02/17/2025


The isolationist stance promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump and his robust actions against the multilateral foreign relations are pushing Brazil to rethink its foreign policy strategy. Officials in Brasília state that the focus on reforming multilateral organizations to give emerging nations a stronger voice is gradually shifting towards ensuring the survival of the post-World War II and post-Cold War systems.

For instance, Brazil’s longstanding ambition to expand the United Nations Security Council seems more distant now. However, Brazil still has an interest in minimizing any weakening of the council. Similar concerns apply to the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Criminal Court (ICC), and climate negotiations.

In a speech earlier this month at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira voiced these concerns. “Growing global inequalities elicit various reactions in the current phase. They give rise, on one hand, to the cause of world order reform, which Brazil has long advocated. But they also give rise to temptations to dismantle the order, often in the very centers where it was conceived and from which they benefited the most,” he stated. “Recent reports on trade—marked by a slew of protectionist measures and unilateral intimidation through tariffs—highlight this trend,” noted the minister.

While UN reform remains central to Brazil, a high-ranking diplomat points out that “the primary concern now is to prevent the system from collapsing.” Previously, it was about reforming to improve the system; now, it’s about ensuring its survival.

The current tumultuous context, featuring Mr. Trump, an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the global rivalry between China and the U.S., creates other “emergencies,” according to sources from the Presidential Palace and Itamaraty, as the Brazilian foreign service establishment is known. One such emergency is the climate issue. With the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement—another Trump action—Brazil is striving to prevent any fallout that could jeopardize even the COP30 summit scheduled for Belém in November.

Another pressing issue is the multilateral trade system, already ailing from the years-long weakening of the World Trade Organization (WTO). From the perspective of Brazilian diplomacy, while this system is currently malfunctioning, its complete collapse—with nations retaliating against US unilateral measures—would be even worse.

Brazil will utilize platforms such as the BRICS group of nations and the G20 to reinforce multilateralism and counter Trump’s influence. With the BRICS, Brazil aims to use the July summit in Rio to drive COP30-related agendas and foster cooperation among member countries.

Itamaraty is working to ensure that a “condemnation of unilateralism” is included in the final text of the BRICS summit, although direct references to the US are unlikely. Furthermore, Brazil is negotiating an internal BRICS pact for a “commerce truce.” According to a source involved in these discussions, this would be “a sort of gentlemen’s agreement where these countries also refrain from taking unilateral measures against each other.”

Itamaraty will also seek to convince other nations so that the group of emerging countries brings a unified climate financing proposal of $1.3 trillion to Belém in November. Brazil also wants its partners to promptly submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), commitments each country makes under the Paris Agreement. The deadline expired on the 10th, with only 13 of the 195 signatories having sent their commitments.

Sources in Brasília note that the strategy towards Mr. Trump’s US could be temporary, considering his four-year term and that he cannot be re-elected. They also believe that protectionist measures may negatively impact employment and inflation, sparking domestic resistance.

Consequently, he may backtrack on measures like the recent tariffs on Brazilian steel and ethanol. However, Mr. Trump’s inclination to negotiate bilaterally with each partner and undermine the multilateral system is not expected to change.

*By Fabio Murakawa  e Renan Truffi  — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
17 de February de 2025/by Gelcy Bueno
Tags: Trump era prompts Brazil to adjust foreign policy
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