Trade war also creates opportunities for Brazil

The two experts spoke on Monday (5) at a business forum hosted by the Rio de Janeiro Commercial Association (ACRJ), where they discussed the shifting global economic landscape under Mr. Trump’s second term in office. Since taking office in January, the U.S. president has imposed tariffs on numerous countries—including key allies such as Canada and Mexico—initiated a trade war with China, and undermined multilateral cooperation.

According to Ms. Marques, one certainty amid the current uncertainty is that “we’re heading into a period of major turbulence and a world quite different from the one we’ve become used to.”

“It feels like we’re living through a reversal of what happened after World War II,” she said. In the postwar era, the U.S. was one of the main proponents of strengthening multilateral ties—an approach now being openly challenged by Mr. Trump.

Ms. Marques views the Trump administration’s trade stance as part of a broader power struggle with China: “There’s a contest between the U.S. and China for global supremacy—over who leads in innovation, who calls the shots, and who holds the greatest military power.”

However, she believes the U.S. is coming out on the losing end: “The way this policy is being implemented—chaotically and without coordination—has major consequences not only for the U.S. but for the world,” she said. “The expectation is that the U.S. will face higher inflation and slower economic activity as a result of these trade barriers.”

Ms. Marques also noted that “the U.S. is facing a supply shock, while China is dealing with a demand shock. It’s always easier to stimulate demand than to increase supply.”

In her view, the current scenario presents opportunities for Brazil and other emerging markets—particularly if they deepen their international ties and seek out new trading partners. One such possibility, she suggested, is that the volatility caused by the trade war could accelerate negotiations on a long-pending trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union.

She also pointed to the potential benefits of a weaker U.S. dollar. “A depreciation of the dollar could help ease inflation in Brazil and create room for interest rate cuts—assuming there are no new credit or fiscal stimulus measures to boost demand,” she said. “Important opportunities could arise for Brazil, but only if we do our homework.”