Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 46%, Lula 44% in runoff

According to the poll, released Wednesday (14), 11 days before the election, undecided voters account for 1%, while blank and invalid ballots and voters who say they will not vote total 9%. Flávio has a rejection rate of 54%, while Lula is rejected by 53%.

Among valid votes, Flávio has 51% and Lula 49%. Valid votes, which exclude blank and invalid ballots, are the basis on which Brazil’s Electoral Justice system determines the election result.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a 95% confidence level, was commissioned by TV Globo and newspaper O Globo and registered with the Electoral Justice system under code BR-08729/2026. A total of 2,154 people were interviewed between Saturday (10) and Tuesday (13). The runoff is scheduled for October 25.

According to Quaest, 35% of respondents said they voted for Flávio in the first round, while 34% said they chose Lula. For 91% of respondents, their choice of candidate for the runoff is final, while 9% said they could still change their minds.

In the spontaneous poll, in which respondents are not shown the candidates’ names, Flávio is mentioned by 43% of respondents, while Lula is cited by 42%. A total of 8% say they will cast a blank or invalid ballot or will not vote, while 7% are undecided.

In Quaest’s poll on the eve of the first round, on October 3, a simulated runoff between Flávio and Lula showed the two candidates tied at the time: the PL candidate had 44% of voting intentions and the PT candidate 42%. The margin of error was also 2 percentage points. At the ballot box, Flávio finished ahead of Lula in the first round, winning 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for the incumbent president. The other candidates together received 7.79%.

The new poll was conducted amid a legal battle between the two campaigns, with both sides filing complaints over fake news and alleged irregularities. Over the weekend, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) became embroiled in a dispute over the “Exército do Lula” (“Lula’s Army”) channel on WhatsApp, with rulings first ordering the group suspended and later allowing it to remain active.

Flávio’s team requested that the community be taken offline, alleging that it was spreading false information. However, the TSE’s technical staff said in a report that they had not identified misleading messages. Citing the high volume of lawsuits, TSE President Kassio Nunes Marques called a meeting with representatives of both campaigns to highlight what he described as “excessive litigation” and propose reducing the number of electoral lawsuits.

The past few days have also been marked by demonstrations in support of Lula in several cities across the country. One of the largest rallies took place Sunday (11) on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo, with the reelection candidate in attendance. Other events, including a rally on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Monday (12), drew sizable crowds even without Lula’s presence.

Both campaigns are reinforcing their strategies to expand their vote share and reduce abstention. Flávio has prioritized building political alliances to strengthen his coalition for the runoff, securing the support of Brazil Union, Progressives Party (PP), Republicans, Novo and Podemos, as well as most of the state-level branches of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB). The PL candidate has also held street campaign events in São Gonçalo, in Rio de Janeiro state.

Among the candidates defeated in the first round, Augusto Cury (Avante), Ronaldo Caiado (Social Democratic Party, PSD) and Romeu Zema (Novo) announced their support for Flávio in the runoff, while Renan Santos (Mission) opted for neutrality. In his speeches, the PL candidate has said his campaign must not become “overconfident” and has urged supporters to mobilize to maintain his lead.

Lula’s allies are betting on a “momentum for a comeback” to narrow the gap with Flávio and overtake him in the runoff. In addition to mobilization on the streets and social media, the PT has revamped its communications strategy in an effort to reduce the opponent’s perceived advantage and increase his rejection rate. On Tuesday (13), the government announced a package of measures for individual microentrepreneurs (MEIs) and the creation of the Pé-de-Meia scholarship program for university students.

Among voters who supported Caiado, who account for 2% of the poll sample, 42% now intend to vote for Flávio and 23% for Lula. Among Santos’ voters, who also account for 2% of the sample, 40% are shifting to the PL candidate and 14% are choosing the PT candidate. Among Cury’s voters, who likewise account for 2% of the sample, 30% say they will vote for Flávio and 34% opt for Lula.

Among voters who abstained or cast blank or invalid ballots in the first round, 38% say they now support the senator, while 43% choose the incumbent president.

The poll shows that 48% of voters disapprove of the Lula administration, while 45% approve. In the previous survey, conducted October 3, the figures were 49% and 44%, respectively. The share of respondents who did not know or declined to answer remained at 7%.

The Lula administration receives a negative assessment from 40% of respondents, down from 42%; a positive assessment from 34%, up from 33%; and a neutral or average rating from 24%, up from 23%. The share who did not know or declined to answer remained unchanged at 2%.

The poll also found that 43% of respondents say they are more afraid of the Bolsonaro family returning to power, the same percentage as those who say they are more concerned about Lula’s reelection. In the previous survey, fear of the Bolsonaros’ return had reached the lowest level in the historical series, at 40%, while the share more concerned about Lula remaining in office was the same 43% recorded now.

Voters who fear neither outcome account for 6%, up from 5%. Those who fear both scenarios represent 3%, down from 7%, while 5% did not know or declined to answer, unchanged from the previous survey.

According to Quaest director Felipe Nunes, the measure of voter fear is one of the indicators that “point to a relative recovery for Lula” compared with the eve of the first round.

“One of the most significant shifts in this indicator occurred among young people. Fear of Lula was the majority position in this subgroup on the 3rd [48%]. Now, young people are divided, with 45% more afraid of Bolsonaro’s return and 45% more afraid of Lula remaining in office,” the poll director said in an analysis posted on social media.

“Those who fear Lula’s [reelection] cite corruption, the cost of living, and poor administration as reasons. Those who fear Bolsonaro point to personal opposition to the family, the attempted coup, memories of a bad government and the possibility that social programs could be discontinued. Corruption is only the fifth most frequently mentioned issue,” Nunes noted.

Lula’s campaign, which is trying to create a “momentum for a comeback,” welcomed the rejection figures measured by Quaest, with Flávio’s rate one percentage point higher than the PT candidate’s. Despite the numerically unfavorable voting-intention figures for the president, allies say the poll indicates that the campaign strategy is “working.”

For the runoff, the party has placed its bets on increasing rejection of Flávio by associating the senator with militias, his father’s administration under former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), and the possible discontinuation of social programs—a claim the PL disputes.

Other encouraging signs, according to PT supporters, were the one-percentage-point gap in the spontaneous poll, with Flávio ahead, and the slight improvement in government approval. They acknowledge, however, that the poll is “just one step” and that their opponent remains ahead in the race.

(Lucas Borges Teixeira and Sofia Aguiar contributed reporting from Brasília.)

*By Joelmir Tavares— São Paulo

Source: Valor Intgernational

https://valorinternational.globo.com/