• Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • English English English en
  • Português Português Portuguese (Brazil) pt-br
Murray Advogados
  • Home
  • The Firm
  • Areas
    • More…
      • Probate and Family Law
      • Capital Stock
      • Internet & Electronic Trade
      • Life Sciences
      • Capital and Financial Market Banking Law
      • Media e Entertainment
      • Mining
      • Intellectual Property
      • Telecommunications Law and Policy
      • Visas
    • Arbitration
    • Adminstrative Law
    • Environmental Law
    • Civil Law
    • Trade Law
    • Consumer Law
    • Sports Law
    • Market and Antitrust Law
    • Real Estate Law
    • International Law and Foreign Trade
    • Corporate Law
    • Labor Law
    • Tax Law
    • Power, Oil and Gas
  • Members
  • News
  • Links
  • Contact
    • Contact Us
    • Careers
  • Search
  • Menu Menu
Murray News

Petrobras expected to post higher Q1 profit on stronger output

Analysts from BTG, UBS BB, and Ativa project net income of R$34.9bn from revenue of R$130bn

 

 

05/09/2025

Higher oil and gas production in the first quarter is expected to drive a year-on-year increase in Petrobras’s earnings, according to estimates gathered by Valor from three banks and brokerages. On average, analysts forecast a net profit of R$34.9 billion, net revenue of R$130 billion, and EBITDA of R$64.3 billion. If confirmed, those figures would represent increases of 47.25% in profit, 10.47% in revenue, and 7.16% in EBITDA compared to the same period last year.

The projections reviewed by Valor come from Ativa Investimentos, BTG Pactual, and UBS BB. Forecasts for net income ranged from R$24.7 billion (Ativa) to R$41.3 billion (BTG), while revenue projections spanned from R$121.2 billion (Ativa) to R$137.3 billion (BTG). EBITDA estimates ranged from R$60.7 billion (Ativa) to R$67.2 billion (BTG).

In the first quarter, the state-controlled oil company reported production of 2.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 5.4% from the first quarter of 2024.

BTG Pactual analysts Luiz Carvalho, Pedro Soares, and Henrique Pérez noted that, following the market’s negative reaction in the fourth quarter—mainly due to higher capital expenditures—investors remain focused on how spending is evolving. Rising capex, they cautioned, could limit future dividend payouts.

According to BTG, lower investment levels combined with higher production should be key to a recovery in Petrobras’s share price. The analysts also said the company is likely to benefit from better refining margins and lower operating costs due to improved efficiency and fewer maintenance shutdowns.

A separate report from UBS BB, authored by Matheus Enfeldt, Tasso Vasconcellos, and Victor Modanese, emphasized that “the big question for the quarter is capex.” The report noted that the key issue is how capital spending will influence dividend expectations, and flagged a particular risk in Q1 results due to the rollover effect of investments made in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Santander analysts Rodrigo Almeida and Eduardo Muniz said they expect EBITDA growth to be driven by higher output, lower lifting costs, and stronger refining margins. However, they foresee weaker results in the gas and power segment, primarily due to a $283 million charge tied to a legal settlement with EIG Energy. In March, Petrobras agreed to pay $283 million—without admitting fault—to settle a lawsuit filed by the U.S. firm, which claimed losses linked to its investment in the FIP Sondas fund managed by Sete Brasil. Sete Brasil filed for bankruptcy after Petrobras canceled contracts for exploration rigs.

Santander’s estimates, provided in U.S. dollars, project first-quarter net income of $5.393 billion, up 12% from a year earlier. The bank expects net revenue of $20.621 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $11.359 billion—down 13% and 9%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2024.

*By Rafael Rosas, Valor — Rio de Janeiro
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
9 de May de 2025/by Gelcy Bueno
Tags: Petrobras, post higher Q1
Share this entry
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail

Pesquisa

Posts Recentes

  • Bosch taps Brazilian know-how as the world enters “Latin mode”
  • Petrobras expected to post higher Q1 profit on stronger output
  • Embraer eyes Chinese market as order backlog hits record high
  • Petrobras CEO piles on pressure for Equatorial Margin drilling
  • Informal employment in Brazil hits lowest rate since pandemic

Arquivos

  • May 2025
  • April 2025
  • March 2025
  • February 2025
  • January 2025
  • December 2024
  • November 2024
  • October 2024
  • September 2024
  • August 2024
  • July 2024
  • June 2024
  • May 2024
  • April 2024
  • March 2024
  • February 2024
  • January 2024
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
© Copyright 2023 Murray Advogados – PLG International Lawyers - Support Webgui Design
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
Embraer eyes Chinese market as order backlog hits record high Bosch taps Brazilian know-how as the world enters “Latin mode”
Scroll to top