Justices waver between pessimism and caution on impeachment risk

One justice considers it certain that impeachment requests will advance in 2027 if presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) is elected. “Of course it will pass. With Flávio in the presidency, there will be at least 60 votes,” the justice said.

The most pessimistic justices point to at least three members of the court who could come under Senate scrutiny as early as next year: Alexandre de Moraes, Dias Toffoli, and Flávio Dino. Justices and people close to them have even drawn up estimates. One, taking the deadlines for the defense into account, is that an impeachment could occur by mid-June.

Most justices, however, urge caution. They consider, for example, that if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) is reelected, initiatives against the Supreme Court could be curbed.

There is also an expectation that some PL lawmakers would be less radical and could oppose impeachment requests. Finally, one justice said he does not see it as so obvious that the proposals would advance in the Senate. He said some members of the centrist bloc have an interest in keeping on the court justices to whom they have greater access.

The Bolsonarist wave that set the tone of the election campaign boosted opposition candidates’ victories, producing a predominantly right-wing Senate and a shrinking centrist bloc.

The result affects relations among the branches of government, particularly the Supreme Court, which is facing a crisis stemming from the Master case. The scandal has shaken the court’s credibility and was an issue in Senate campaigns.

With 28 senators, the PL will have the largest caucus starting next year, about three times the size of the PT’s, with nine, and the Brazilian Democratic Movement’s (MDB), with eight. The shrinking of the Centrão bloc was evident in the Progressive Party (PP) and Republicans, each reduced to six members, and in the Social Democracy Party (PSD) and Brazil Union, with five lawmakers each.