Planning has improved, but freight costs have tripled and product shortages remain a concern
09/11/2024
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If drought in the Amazon region worsens and freight costs continue to rise, consumers may see higher prices in stores — Foto: Ricardo Stuckert/PR/Divulgação
Improved planning by the industry and retail sectors for this year’s dry season in Manaus, compared to last year, may initially reduce the risk of shortages in manufacturing inputs and consumer products.
However, if the drought worsens and freight costs remain high, consumers could face higher prices in stores and an increased likelihood of product shortages during the holiday season.
During the 2023 dry season, the Amazon region’s four largest maritime and river cargo transport operators charged between $900 and $2,000 per container, depending on the company and volume. This so-called “dry season surcharge” is an established practice in the sector, negotiated annually when drought conditions hit. As of August 1, Valor has learned that the rates have jumped to between $3,000 and $5,900, effectively tripling within a year.
Industry associations, business leaders, and unions report that the warning of a more severe drought this year prompted manufacturers, especially of motorcycles, TVs, and air conditioners, to secure advance sale contracts with retailers. This move came despite higher distribution costs in the third quarter.
However, this strategy has its financial and structural limitations, which could create bottlenecks for consumers. Valor has learned that major retailers Magazine Luiza and Casas Bahia have expedited the delivery of televisions from the Manaus Free Trade Zone to ensure supply.
“We don’t foresee major complications for Black Friday sales since part of the deliveries has been advanced, and we have better distribution alternatives compared to a year ago. For Christmas, however, the situation is uncertain, and there could be impacts on both prices and supply,” said José Jorge do Nascimento Júnior, president of Eletros, an association of durable goods manufacturers. Black Friday falls on November 29.
“It all depends on the severity and duration of the drought, which started earlier this year than in 2023, potentially affecting distribution despite having more port options in the region,” he added.
The main alternative involves two temporary floating ports in Itacoatiara, located 170 kilometers from Manaus on the Amazon River, which received approval from the Federal Revenue Service to operate as of August. These private piers, operated by the Chibatão Group and Super Terminais, can accommodate large vessels comfortably.
Earlier this week, the first test at the Chibatão pier was expected. Products are unloaded from ships onto barges that can navigate the drier sections of the region’s rivers. Companies can lease pier areas for receiving inputs and dispatching orders from the Free Trade Zone.
Luis Fernando Resano, executive director of the Brazilian Association of Shipowners and Short-Sea Shipping (ABAC), said another option is to traverse the region between Pará and Manaus. However, completing the route on barges from Vila do Conde (Pará) to Manaus (Amazonas) could add up to 10 days to transit times due to the drought.
The issue is that freight costs in Manaus have skyrocketed. Augusto César Rocha, logistics coordinator at the Amazonas Industry Center (CIEAM), note that almost all year-end production is practically sold but not fully delivered.
“According to the rate schedules I accessed, the average freight cost per container has risen to $3,100 from $900,” he said. Leading operators in the sector include MSC and Maersk.
“We had better planning, especially from the private sector, as government actions have been limited since the 2023 drought. Last year, we managed through improvisation. This year, the industry has built up stock and partially passed it on to retail. But the dry season surcharge has risen sharply,” said Mr. Rocha.
He expects these costs to be gradually absorbed throughout the year by both industries and retailers but said that short-term profitability could be affected if costs are not passed on.
Despite the current surge in demand for TVs and air conditioners from the Manaus Free Trade Zone, Eletros does not believe this can be fully absorbed due to compressed profit margins since the pandemic and the lingering effects of high interest rates post-2021.
“We’re experiencing a very strong summer, with white goods sales up 18% in the semester and water cooler sales soaring 120%, along with significant increases in filters and beer coolers. However, we’ve faced currency pressures and interest rates are expected to rise again,” said Mr. Nascimento of Eletros.
Advance delivery agreements between Free Trade Zone industrial companies and retailers in the Southeast and South have involved lead times of a few weeks, sources say. Electronic manufacturers expedited imports of inputs and production schedules by three to four weeks this year, according to an early-week survey by ABINEE, the electrical industry association.
“This year we saw distributors [of components] bringing forward their purchases by several weeks, moving them to August and September,” said Rogério Nunes, head of the Brazilian Semiconductor Industry Association (ABISEMI).
Air transport, though more expensive than river transport, is another alternative adopted by the sector and is already a common part of logistics for electronic components manufacturers. “Given that these products take up little space and are extremely sensitive, air transport is typically used in this sector,” Mr. Nunes said.
To ensure advance deliveries to retail without disrupting the financial cycle of the chains, which would lead to premature cash outflows, a prior agreement was reached between parties. Otherwise, if a company advances purchases and pays for them well before the sales period, it increases inventory and raises its working capital needs amid a costly market environment.
“There has been a significant advance in TV deliveries by Asian brands because it’s a product with strong demand today. So, suppliers have built up advance stocks with us but without invoicing in advance to avoid immediate cash outflows,” said the general director of a major electronics retailer.
Valor has learned that one of Brazil’s largest electronics chains decided to import air conditioner batches from China to avoid missing summer sales.
In late August, Sergei Epof, Panasonic’s vice president in Brazil, said the group preemptively moved products before river water levels dropped in the North. “This way, we aim to avoid last year’s problem, when we were caught off guard,” he said.
Even with the anticipated impacts of the drought, not all effects can be mitigated, and there are risks to the supply, said Alexandre Ostrowiecki, CEO of the Multi Group.
According to him, although Multi has implemented preventive measures, this situation will inevitably lead to increased logistics costs “and could result in product shortages in the market throughout the second half of 2024,” he told Valor.
“We are working hard to minimize impacts, but the reality is that this is an unprecedented challenge for the entire supply chain,” he added.
*Por Adriana Mattos, Daniela Braun — São Paulo
Source: Valor International