China doubles down on Brazil with energy focus, diversified investment

Despite the rebound, flows from China remain well below the record $8.8 billion peak in 2017, when major bets were placed on large-scale oil and energy infrastructure projects. Investments are now more diversified, spread across smaller projects in information technology, manufacturing, and renewable energy. A record number of deals were confirmed in 2024, totaling 39, compared with 29 in 2023 and 28 in 2017.

The figures refer to projects effectively implemented last year, based on data from the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC). The survey combines information from multiple sources to benchmark Chinese outbound investment. Potential investments in Brazil could have reached $6.2 billion in 2024, if announced projects that failed to materialize had been included.

Brazil was the leading emerging-market destination for Chinese productive capital last year and the third-largest globally, after the United Kingdom and Hungary. In 2023, it ranked ninth. The United States, which has steadily fallen in the rankings in recent years, placed tenth in 2024, according to data from the CEBC and the China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT), a database managed by the U.S.-based think tank American Enterprise Institute.

Tulio Cariello, CEBC’s director of research and content, noted that China’s initial wave of global expansion in the 2000s targeted developed economies as it sought technological upgrading. “With the geopolitical dispute between the U.S. and China, Chinese investors started looking elsewhere,” he said.

Amid the tariff policies adopted under the Donald Trump administration, relations between China and Brazil are likely to deepen. “Geopolitics is positioning Brazil almost directly alongside China in several economic matters,” Mr. Cariello said.

The report highlights that Chinese inflows accelerated at a time when the depreciation of the real made Brazilian assets cheaper in dollar terms. The average exchange rate in 2024 was R$5.39 to the dollar, the highest since the CEBC began tracking Chinese investment in 2010.

Over the past decade, Brazil ranked among the world’s top 10 recipients of Chinese FDI for seven years. From 2007 to 2024, cumulative Chinese investment in Brazil reached $77.5 billion across 303 confirmed projects. Between 2005 and 2024, Brazil was the fourth-largest destination by stock, trailing only the U.S., U.K., and Australia, according to CGIT.

Electric power attracted the largest share of Chinese investment in 2024, totaling $1.43 billion, or 34% of the total, a 115% increase over 2023. Oil followed with 25%, led by nearly $1 billion from China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)—one of the largest single-year commitments of the past decade, second only to 2021, when Chinese oil companies poured about $5 billion into pre-salt projects. Automotive manufacturing ranked third, with $575 million (14%), and mining came next with $556 million (13%).

“Chinese capital is already firmly established in energy, from hydropower, solar, and wind to oil. What stood out last year was manufacturing, especially tied to electrified vehicles. That has brought investment into machinery, electronics, and equipment for energy generation and transmission,” Mr. Cariello said.

The shift has been accompanied by an increase in the number of projects but a decline in their average size. The average deal fell from $507 million in 2010–2014 to $313 million in 2015–2019, and to $112 million between 2020 and 2024. According to the study, this reflects a trend toward less capital-intensive projects, typically focused on innovation and the energy transition.

By project count, electricity continued to dominate in 2024, accounting for 56% of deals. But the remaining 44% was spread across sectors, with oil extraction at 13% and the production of electrical equipment and vehicles at 10% each.

In line with Brazil’s own industrial policy, Chinese investment in manufacturing has gained traction. A record eight projects were confirmed in 2024, worth a combined $637 million—the second-highest value on record, after $907 million in 2023. Beyond electrified cars, investments covered auto parts, construction machinery, household appliances, textiles, and a wide range of electrical instruments and equipment.

This expansion has also fueled more imports from China. Currently, China is Brazil’s leading export market, with a 29.1% share, and also the largest source of imports, at 25.9%, according to official data. “The bilateral trade relationship has grown and become more complex, which also brings challenges. Some industries, such as steel and vehicles, are under pressure from Chinese imports. While Brazil continues to post a large trade surplus with China, that margin has been narrowing, which is something to watch,” Mr. Cariello noted.

Sustainability and green energy accounted for 69% of Chinese projects in Brazil in 2024, compared with 72% in 2023. Last year, they were 72%.

Mr. Cariello also pointed to the growing Chinese appetite for strategic minerals, which featured in nearly all projects confirmed or announced last year, reflecting the country’s positioning in the global energy transition.