Monetary authority’s autonomy law foresees fixed four-year terms for president and directors with one reappointment
08/19/2022
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Roberto Campos Neto — Foto: Billy Boss/Câmara dos Deputados
Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto said he will not accept a new term after 2024. “When the autonomy rule was made, I was against reappointment. I wanted to remove it from the bill,” he said Thursday at an event held by BTG Pactual.
“I think that it is not healthy because it creates fragility in the middle of the term because there will be a Central Bank president interested in being reappointed who will be exposed at that moment to the will of the Executive branch. Other countries go through this, and I don’t like it, I don’t think it is good. So the answer to the question is I do not [want it].”
The Central Bank’s autonomy law provides for fixed four-year terms for the president and directors, with one reappointment. Thus, Mr. Campos Neto must hold the post until the end of 2024 and could have the term extended until 2028.
In the event, Mr. Campos Neto made it clear that the change in the monetary authority’s focus on inflation over the relevant horizon will not be permanent. According to him, when uncertainty decreases, the policymakers will go back to considering the full-year index.
In its last decision, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) emphasized the 12-month inflation in the first quarter of 2024, projected at 3.5%, and not the full-year index. According to the statement, the period “reflects the relevant horizon, smoothens out the primary effects from tax changes, but incorporates their second-round effects on the relevant inflation projections for monetary policy decisions.”
Mr. Campos Neto stressed that calibrating the Copom’s statements is the main challenge in an uncertain environment. “We have different estimates [in the market] about how much [of the government’s tax cut] was going into the following year. In the time dimension, everyone was sure it would come back in the first quarter [of 2024]. We found it easier to act on the when,” he said.
The central banker highlighted, however, that this is a one-off change and does not mean a change in the “inflation target.” “We made it clear that we are talking about the relevant horizon and not the target. We had to adapt our reaction function. It is not permanent, it is temporary,” he said.
Mr. Campos Neto also said that Brazil is the only country where the market is pricing a drop in interest rates. “It means that agents understand that much of the [monetary policy] work has been done.”
The executive highlighted that inflation is still quite pressured in Brazil, but that the regulated price index shows the impact of the government’s measures, which reduces prices in the short term. “Food at home is still high and so are services,” he said.
In his view, the tax cuts this year should generate inertia for the coming years, but it is necessary to “understand what is structural.” “We are starting to see better news [on inflation], as in the diffusion part. We think that there is inertia for next year, but there is uncertainty,” he said.
As for the economic activity, he emphasized that the market has revised upwards the projection for this year due to the government’s expansionary policy, but also due to the better-than-expected performance of some sectors. “Our projection is a little above 2%, it should come out soon,” he said. In the most recent quarterly inflation report, the Central Bank estimated a growth of 1.7%, and this figure will be revised in the September document.
*By Larissa Garcia — Brasília
Source: Valor International