For a while, it looked like carmakers were about to give up production in the country
03/07/2024
Stellantis’s unit in Goiana: carmaker announced an investment of R$30 billion in Brazil over the next five years — Foto: Divulgação
For a while, it seemed as if carmakers were on the verge of abandoning production in Brazil. At least, that’s what some facts indicated at the beginning of the decade.
The most striking was that of Ford, which decided to close all its factories in the country between 2020 and 2021. Then Mercedes-Benz also closed the car factory it had built in the state of São Paulo, arguing that the facility could not accommodate the most modern lines of cars of a new era, that of electrification.
Also in 2020, Audi decided to stop production at its partner Volkswagen’s plant in Paraná to assess the conditions in the country and the market. At the same time, there was speculation that General Motors would also leave the country. First, following a statement by the company’s CEO, Mary Barra, who implied that the operation would not be maintained if it continued to make losses.
Other automakers limited themselves to one-time investments. Renault, for example, announced a smaller program that would run for a year until it had a clearer idea of what would happen to the market after the pandemic.
COVID-19 was partly to blame for the slump in the industry. So was the semiconductor crisis, which shut down entire factories for many days over several months in 2021, 2022, and part of 2023.
Still, it was striking to see the automotive industry announcing major investments in electric car factories in developed countries while little progress was being made here.
Some said, among those who risk analyzing the sector, that the huge park of vehicle and auto parts manufacturers in Brazil was doomed to become scrap metal.
But suddenly this scenario changed completely. It began with the Chinese brands. BYD and Great Wall Motor decided to enter the country. GWM bought Mercedes’s plant and BYD took over Ford’s former plant in Bahia. At the same time, Audi decided to take back its space and resume production in Paraná.
From the end of 2023, new cycles began to emerge for incumbent companies. Renault’s Brazilian operations were incorporated into the company’s global plan.
The coming and going of the top executives of the sector began in Brasília. The global heads of these companies decided to come to the country to personally deliver the news to the Brazilian government.
Since November, several high-ranking executives have visited the presidential palace, including Makoto Uchida, CEO of Nissan, Shilpan Amin, head of GM’s international division, and most recently, Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, who was in Brasília on Wednesday.
The announcement of an investment of R$30 billion in Brazil over the next five years is not only a decisive step by Stellantis to maintain its leadership in Latin America, an important region for its activity. It also confirms that Brazil will not disappear from the map of the automotive industry—at least not before the next decade.
“I’ll see you in 2030,” Mr. Tavares said in an interview on Wednesday (6). In that time, Brazil will have everything it needs to remain among the world’s top 10 vehicle producers. It was eighth in 2022. The 2023 ranking has not yet been announced.
The country’s economic environment weighed heavily on the assessments of these companies, which tend to make long-term investments. Executives also appreciated the government’s tax incentives in programs that reward innovation and emissions reductions, such as the recently launched Mover.
In the case of large companies such as Stellantis, Toyota, Volkswagen, Renault, and perhaps GM, the funds will be used to produce hybrid cars—with an electric motor and an internal combustion engine that can run on ethanol.
This solution will help put Brazil on the electrification map without causing major trauma to the current production park and without making cars unaffordable for the majority of Brazilians.
Carmaker bets on hybrid models to make electrification accessible to the middle class
03/07/2024
Carlos Tavares — Foto: Wenderson Araujo/Valor
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares concluded that offering only fully electric cars worldwide would make the industry lose most of its customers, who are in the middle class. Therefore, while sticking to decarbonization goals, he has been seeking alternatives to offer a more accessible electrification to that type of consumer. In Brazil, the possibility of using ethanol in hybrid cars led the automaker to decide to invest R$30 billion in the country over the next five years.
That is the largest investment program among all plans announced by automakers in recent weeks. With the Stellantis plan, the total amount announced by light vehicle manufacturers (cars and light commercial vehicles) in Brazil for the current decade reaches R$87.8 billion. Of the total, R$67.2 billion were announced less than three months ago.
The investments announced by Stellantis—a company created three years ago from the combination of Fiat, Chrysler, Peugeot, Citroën, and others—add to the plans by Volkswagen, Toyota, and CAOA Chery, which have expressed that their new investments will back the development of hybrid ethanol cars. General Motors, Renault, Nissan, and Hyundai are expected to follow suit, which Mr. Tavares described as “a smart solution.”
The executive points out that producing a fully electric car today costs between 30% and 40% more. “If we pass this cost on [to consumers], the middle class will say, ‘I can’t buy it,’” he said. “If we ignore the cost, restructuring a company that employs 260,000 people worldwide would be a social disaster,” he added.
Hence, there is a need to seek regional solutions, according to Mr. Tavares. “We have smart solutions like Brazil’s bi-fuel car,” he said. The bi-fuel technology, which allows for the use of ethanol or gasoline, combined with the electrification offered by a hybrid car, contributes to promoting decarbonization at more affordable prices.
“We are witnessing the fragmentation of the world, which is not a good solution for humanity; but that is another story,” he said. The Portuguese executive has led Stellantis from the start. Before that, as the CEO of Peugeot and Citroën, he was already one of the most respected leaders in the industry.
He points out that while Europeans are interested in EVs, Americans are still hesitant. In Brazil, there is the possibility of ethanol. How about the Africans? “How can we find a safe, clean, accessible technology for Africans without turning to biofuels that could compromise food supply?” he questions.
According to the executive, the prices of electric cars could be on par with combustion models from 2026 or 2027. However, he fears that a regionalization of the world could compromise the necessary scale for that to happen.
Mr. Tavares cites what happened recently in Europe, when some governments, including Germany, eliminated subsidies of up to €7,000 for consumers who exchanged their cars for a fully electric model. “The middle class gave up.”
“The consumers’ message was: we can have electric cars, but we need subsidies. Without subsidies there is no volume, without volume, there is no scale, and without scale, we cannot reduce prices. And without volume, there will be no environmental impact. It’s a jammed machine.” The executive notes that countries are indebted and facing high interest rates, and no one wants to hear about tax increases.
But what is the point of offering a hybrid model that runs on ethanol if consumers prefer gasoline? Mr. Tavares says Stellantis already offers cars that run exclusively on ethanol. “But we are just one of the players to make it work.” He suggests greater government participation to promote the biofuel.
Argentina will also receive investments from Stellantis. The amount to be invested in Argentina was not expected to be revealed in the press conference held by the executives on Wednesday (6) in Brasília, shortly after the meeting with the government. However, given the journalists’ insistence in discovering the level of interest the company has in keeping the activities’ pace in the neighboring country, Emanuele Cappellano, CEO of Stellantis Latin America, said Argentina will soon receive investments amounting to R$2 billion.
According to Mr. Cappellano, by 2030, the renewal of products and launch of new cars under Stellantis brands in Brazil will total 40 models. Of this total, 20% will be fully electric cars.
Mr. Tavares came to Brazil to announce the new investment to the government in person. Both during the meeting with President Lula and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and later, in the interview with journalists, the executive praised the Mover program, which offers federal tax incentives to the automotive industry in exchange for the commitment to carrying out research, innovation, and reducing emissions.
“It is a very smart program and one of the strengths of the country, which has carried out structural reforms and programs for the industry,” he said.
“Latin America is, for us, a stable region today,” Mr. Tavares said when commenting on the reasons that led the company to announce the robust investment. The previous cycle combining the programs of the brands under Stellantis in Brazil totaled R$16 billion for the 2018-2025 period.
The reporter’s travel costs were covered by Stellantis.
By the end of the first two months, purchases had reached only 20% of what was expected, half of what was sold in previous years
03/06/2024
Marcelo Altieri — Foto: Divulgação
Fertilizer sales in Brazil have never been so slow, according to companies in the sector, reflecting farmers fearful of crop failures and climatic problems.
By the end of the first two months of the year, the Brazilian market had bought only 20% of the volume of fertilizer expected for 2024, half the percentage sold in previous years at this time, when it was close to 40%, according to Yara, the Norwegian multinational that leads the nitrogen market in the country.
“It’s creating a lot of stress in the logistics chain. We’re expecting some hurdles,” Yara Brasil CEO Marcelo Altieri said after an event in Brasília. “We have never seen a purchasing reality so far behind the annual progress, so it could bring logistical problems.”
The company did not provide specific figures on expected fertilizer sales for 2024 but said the slower pace was a reality of the market in general.
This delay could lead to distribution and logistics problems in the country in the coming months, as when sales start to flow, orders could pile up at dealers and the fertilizer may not be delivered in time for planting of the 2024/25 crop.
A survey by StoneX shows that the volume of fertilizer sales for delivery in the first half of the year reached 51% by February. A year earlier, this percentage was 62% and by February 2022 it was 60%.
For deliveries scheduled for the second half of the year—when the agricultural calendar for the 2024/25 harvest begins—there is also a lower commercialization rate of around 20%. Compared to the last two years, the rate in this period was 30%.
According to the Israeli company ICL, which produces minerals and special fertilizers, the scenario is expected to reverse in the coming months, given the favorable conditions of the exchange ratio (an indicator that measures purchasing capacity) between fertilizers and grains.
“The resumption of the market is essential to avoid logistical problems and the consequent difficulty for producers to access technology,” said Ithamar Prada, the company’s chief marketing and innovation officer. According to him, producers are now focused on completing the harvest and assessing the conditions for commercializing soy.
Mr. Altieri said that farmers are waiting until the last moment to make a purchase decision. In 2023, the delay in purchases was due to the expectation of lower prices. Nevertheless, the chain managed to organize itself and meet demand.
“This year is different. The trends are not the same, many products are already at the [price] bottom and some are already recovering. The longer farmers wait, the more logistical problems we could face during the harvest,” Mr. Altieri added.
The doubts generated by the delays in purchases have not yet shaken the scenario of stability projected for 2024. According to Mr. Altieri, the profitability levels of the agricultural sector and the fertilizer industry have returned to pre-pandemic levels after years of historic highs and lows in the market in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
“There was a lot of suffering, a lot of pain, and a lot of price declines during this transition. There were almost 12 months of falling fertilizer prices. It was very challenging. But this year is a year of stability,” he said.
However, the executive admitted that the scenario of financial hardship in the agribusiness sector, with the rise of requests for court-supervised reorganizations by companies and farmers, is concerning.
“Farmers pay the bills of all our companies. If farmers are struggling, it’s something that concerns us and we want to work to help reverse this scenario as quickly as possible by generating more productivity for them, and higher quality and profitability,” said Mr. Altieri.
*Por Rafael Walendorff, Isadora Camargo — Brasília, São Paulo
Market and political issues explain R$11bn investments until 2030
03/06/2024
Evandro Maggio — Foto: Divulgação
The circumstances that led Japanese automaker Toyota to announce an investment package of R$11 billion for Brazil until 2030, the largest in the company’s 66-year history in the country, include market and political issues. In an interview with Valor on Tuesday (5), following the announcement ceremony that took place at the Sorocaba factory, Evandro Maggio, Toyota CEO in Brazil, cited three factors that helped convince the company’s global leaders.
The first was related to the market. Toyota launched the first dual-fuel hybrid car manufactured in Brazil in 2019, a decision that was widely regarded as sound. The model was well accepted in Brazil and abroad, turning the automaker into the largest exporter in its industry. The car is exported to 22 countries.
Part of the new investments will be used to increase production capacity in Sorocaba, São Paulo, and to the development of two new dual-fuel hybrid vehicles. As it has been announced, the first model will be a compact car to be assembled from 2025 onwards. Toyota has not yet disclosed the second model it plans to release.
“We would love to talk about it, but it is still very confidential,” Mr. Maggio said. Asked if the announcement would possibly take place this year, the executive insisted that he could not provide further details.
The second key factor was the release of credits amounting to R$1 billion from Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) on exports by the carmaker that had been retained by the São Paulo state government. “The actions by the state government, with the release of the credits we had, were key to make such investment viable,” the executive said. Present at the ceremony, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commented on the matter. “We released R$1 billion in ICMS credits to facilitate this investment.”
The third point mentioned by the CEO was federal government program Mover, aimed at decarbonizing the car industry. “We believe there is a [federal] government policy, with Mover, providing predictability and competitive conditions that help with demand,” he stated. Geraldo Alckmin, vice-president and minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, also participated in the event.
“The conditions are many. First, there is demand for our dual-fuel hybrid. And the adjoining conditions contribute to the investment. We cannot attribute it [the investment] to one single factor,” Mr. Maggio explained. Currently, 40% of production is exported and it could increase with the new plans.
Mr. Maggio was evasive when asked whether the extension of tax incentives for vehicles produced in the Northeast and Central-West regions, approved during the tax reform vote in December, had put the R$11 billion investment at risk. Toyota signed an open letter against the extension, along with Volkswagen and GM.
“Toyota values competitiveness on equal terms. We have always supported and encouraged competitiveness, but it has to be on an equal footing. We believe that from now on the conditions will be adjusted gradually,” he added.
The investments include an operational restructuring with the expansion and concentration of production in Sorocaba and the shutdown of the Indaiatuba unit, both in the São Paulo state. The relocation of operations will start in 2025 and is expected to be completed the following year. The automaker said the Indaiatuba unit’s 1,500 employees will have the opportunity to work in Sorocaba. “The investment will be in both bodywork and engines, to develop batteries for these vehicles and to relocate operations.”
Sources say talks are in the initial stages; airline had also approached Latam years ago
06/03/2024
Azul’s proposal is expected to be launched during the formulation of Gol’s exit financing—a type of financing granted to companies facing reorganization — Foto: Leo Pinheiro/Valor
Azul Airlines is considering making a bid to acquire the operations of its competitor Gol, which is in court-supervised reorganization (Chapter 11) in the United States. Sources say the company has hired Guggenheim Partners and Citi to put together a strategy to buy its rival. The news of the deal was first reported by Bloomberg News.
This is another attack by rivals on Gol, which reported R$20 billion in debt when it filed for protection from creditors in the United States. The company is at loggerheads with airline Latam for seeking aircraft from its lessors at the same time of the Chapter 11 filing, which began on January 25.
Talks are in the early stages and there is no formal proposal on the table, three sources told Valor. In recent weeks, Azul has been seeking legal information on the acquisition of assets included in the court-supervised reorganization.
Azul has always shown interest in advancing consolidation in the Brazilian market. During Latam’s Chapter 11 process, between May 2020 and the end of 2022, Azul engaged in a public dispute for Latam by making a proposal to the creditors of the Chilean group for its Brazilian assets. However, the plan did not go through, although it disrupted the competitor’s restructuring process.
A potential bid for Gol’s assets, which may or may not include Avianca, would need to be competitive to convince Gol’s current shareholders and creditors—who must determine throughout the process whether the operation is advantageous for them.
Azul’s proposal is expected to be launched during the formulation of Gol’s exit financing—a type of financing granted to companies facing reorganization. The purpose is to pay credits restructured by the reorganization plan and finance the debtor’s operations after the process closure.
According to a source, the structuring of this loan is expected to gain momentum in the second half.
During this period, however, there is a chance of a dispute over the composition of this loan, as it will determine the shareholding structure of the company after the Chapter 11 process.
Behind the scenes, Azul’s rationale mirrors what prompted its move against Latam to take over its operations in Brazil. Here, the greatest overlap occurs between Latam and Gol’s networks. Azul, with its strong regional appeal, operates approximately 70% of its routes independently.
The low overlap could serve as a mechanism to support arguments in a potential review by the antitrust watchdog CADE. With consolidation, the prospect of one less airline in the country may not sit well with the government, especially with plans to try to reduce fare prices.
In January, the domestic market was led by Latam with 36.7%, followed by Gol (34.1%) and Azul (28.7%), according to data by the National Civil Aviation Authority (ANAC).
There are doubts in the market about Azul’s ability to finance an operation of this size, given that the company also recently went through a debt renegotiation process.
Azul said in a statement to the market that it is always attentive to the strategic dynamics of the airline industry and possible partnership opportunities, and may hire consultants to assist the company in these endeavors. Azul also said that it has not negotiated or approved any specific transactions to date. Guggenheim Partners did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Gol, Citi, and Abra, the holding company that controls Gol and Avianca, declined to comment.
*Por Cristian Favaro, Mônica Scaramuzzo — São Paulo
The National Institute of Social Security’s (INSS) pension contribution’s benefits granted by court orders in 2023 reached a new record: of the 5.964 million new benefits granted last year, 15.85% came from court decisions. Litigation is concentrated on benefits such as sickness benefits and old-age, disability, and special pensions.
In 2001, when official records began, judicial grants accounted for only 1% of the total, but this has grown year by year to 15.85% in 2023, according to a study carried out by Valor with the help of economist Rogerio Nagamine Costanzi, based on data from the INSS.
Luis Eduardo Afonso, an associate professor at the University of São Paulo’s School of Economics and Administration (FEA/USP), who also specializes in social security, said that the high level of benefits granted in courts is worrying and implies an increase in costs for both the government and the insured, as well as causing delays in the granting of benefits.
INSS President Alessandro Stefanutto admits that the current percentage of benefits granted in courts is high and said that it would be “reasonable” to keep it at around 5%. He believes that Atestmed—the granting of sickness benefits by a digital certificate, without face-to-face medical examination—will help reduce the percentage. “But that’s a personal opinion. I’m not speaking for the AGU [Federal Attorney General’s Office],” he said.
Atestmed was introduced by the government at the end of last year, and today almost 50% of temporary disability benefits (formerly sickness benefits) are granted using that tool. The goal is to further expand the use of this system among the population.
“In Italy, for example, litigation is very low. It’s less than 1%. European countries are at a different level when it comes to litigation,” he said. “There are several reasons. The first one is that the administrative decision is favored,” said the INSS president.
Mr. Stefanutto added that between November and December last year, the proportion of benefits granted by the courts fell to 13.7% from 15.2%. However, even with the reduction, he said that the percentage is “embarrassing” and needs to be reduced.
The INSS president said that in the case of benefits that are granted for a shorter period, such as sickness benefits, it is difficult to recover the amounts if they have been unduly paid because they are usually considered irrecoverable due to their alimentary nature. “But we continue to seek medical evidence to see if the person is on the mend. With Atestmed, I’ll have more [time for] the assessments [that need to be done],” he added.
Mr. Stefanutto acknowledged the difficulty of reducing the judicial grant of rural benefits, which is also one of the main causes of litigation. Currently, about 30% of rural pensions are granted through the courts, while the percentage for urban pensions is about 10%. “Proving rural status has always been a challenge because there are no reliable records. But there are government projects,” he said.
According to the INSS president, during the Rousseff administration, there was a move to create a registry similar to the National Social Information Registry (CNIS) to show how long people had worked in rural areas. “When the insured came to the INSS, there would already be much more evidence to grant a rural pension or even a disability benefit,” he said.
According to economist Rogerio Nagamine, a specialist in social security, disability benefits are highly litigated because they require medical examination. The same is true for rural retirement, due to the greater complexity of proving activity and older employment relationships needed to complete the qualifying period.
The economist also said that reducing the waiting list for benefits should be a concern for the government, as it would help reduce litigation. In 2023, the number of benefits requested monthly from the INSS from August to October was over 1 million, making the government’s task of reducing the queues even more difficult. In January, the waiting list stood at 1.57 million applications, despite the government’s efforts to reduce this number.
According to lawyer Diego Cherulli, director of the Brazilian Institute of Social Security Law (IDBP), the litigation figures could be much higher. “There are places where 50%, 60% of benefits are granted or postponed through the courts,” he said. “There are a lot of benefits granted in court that aren’t registered as such. We have this problem [of underreporting].”
According to data from the Ministry of Social Security, 39.302 million benefits were issued in 2023, and total spending on benefit payments amounted to R$909.13 billion. Of the benefits issued, 84.9% are equivalent to up to two minimum wages.
Carmaker’s announcement demonstrates “confidence” in Brazilian economy, Geraldo Alckmin said
03/04/2024
Geraldo Alckmin — Foto: Cadu Gomes/VPR
Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said Sunday (3) that he was about to attend an event on Tuesday (5) at Toyota to announce an investment of R$11 billion in Brazil for the production of new vehicle lines. According to Mr. Alckmin, the investment will create 2,000 jobs in the country.
The news that Toyota’s Sorocaba plant will be expanded was first reported by O Globo columnist Lauro Jardim.
“Another success for Brazil and the Lula administration! On Tuesday (5), in Sorocaba (São Paulo), I’ll attend an event where, thanks to the federal government’s Mover and Fuel for the Future programs, Toyota will announce investments of R$11 billion in the country over the next few years, creating 2,000 jobs and launching new models,” Brazil’s vice president wrote on social media.
Mr. Alckmin stressed that the carmaker’s announcement “is a clear demonstration of the confidence that this major Japanese company has in our economy.”
Ualace Moreira, secretary of Industrial Development, Innovation and Trade, said the investment by Toyota and other carmakers is the result of actions taken by the Lula administration, including tax incentives totaling R$19.3 billion under the Mover program, the restoration of import tariffs to stimulate domestic production, and the recovery of the domestic market. “With the R$19.3 billion stimulus from Mover and the restoration of import tariffs, Toyota will invest in its factories in Brazil, in São Paulo, creating 2,000 jobs,” he said.
Toyota did not respond to Valor’s requests for a comment.
Despite federal government compensation, states could face tough 2024 after losing revenues from taxes, federal grants
03/04/2024
Renata dos Santos — Foto: Ricardo Ledo/Valor
While the federal government compensated states for losses from lower collection of the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS), the combined revenues of Brazil’s 26 states and the Federal District dropped by 1.8% in adjusted terms in 2023 compared to the previous year.
The drop was primarily caused by a 3.2% decline, adjusted for inflation, in ICMS revenue and a 1.4% decrease in transfers from the State Participation Fund (FPE). Conversely, current expenses rose by 3.3%, mainly due to an increase in personnel expenditures, which went up by 5.1%.
Experts and state representatives say the figures indicate that 2024 could be “very difficult” for some subnational governments. They pointed to expectations of an economic slowdown in a year where the demand for pay raises is expected to persist. Additionally, there are spending pressures stemming from political campaigns for municipal elections. Moreover, the absence of federal compensation for ICMS losses, which were accounted for in 2023, further exacerbates the situation. Nonetheless, some states are closely watching the increase in the federal government tax revenue in 2024, which may favor mandatory transfers.
“The data shows that we have a big revenue problem. The increase in the standard ICMS rate last year by some states wasn’t enough to bring collection to the desired level. At the same time, the strong increase in current expenses is concerning. From 2024 onwards, the gap between revenue and expenses is expected to increase,” said Gabriel Leal de Barros, an economist and partner at Ryo Asset. “In 2024, we will likely see the pressure for federal salaries and public hiring tests spill over to states and municipalities.”
The unfavorable situation in the stream of revenue and expenses was widespread among the states in 2023. In nine of the 27 subnational entities, current revenues fell while current expenses increased.
As for the other 18 entities, revenues rose in 14, but at a slower pace than expenses.
Spending on personnel, states’ main expenses, also increased in 2023 compared to the previous year. Last year, spending on personnel by the Executive branch measured in relation to the Net Current Revenue (RCL) increased in 21 of the 27 entities. In six states—Rio de Janeiro, Paraíba, Acre, Roraima, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Norte—it came in above the 46.55% cap set by the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF). The latter three states also exceeded the 49% cap set by the same law.
In 2022, only three states were above the cap, while Rio Grande do Norte was the only one to exceed the limit.
The data reviewed by Valor is part of the tax reports sent by states to the National Treasury. Authorized spending and realized revenues were considered. The 2022 data was adjusted by the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), Brazil’s official inflation index.
Representatives of current state administrations point out that the indicators could have been worse without the extraordinary revenues. Supplementary law 201/2023 established a compensation of R$27.1 billion by the federal government to the states for the loss of ICMS revenues in 2022.
That year, federal laws led to a reduction in state tax rates on fuel, electricity, and telecommunications.
Supplementary law 201/2023 created a compensation schedule until 2025, with part of it to be made through debt payment relief and another part through transfers of funds from the federal government to the states.
In addition to the amounts due in 2023, the federal government also transferred around R$10 billion at the end of last year as an advance payment of the amounts that would be paid in 2024.
The compensation contributed to a 7.3% increase in current transfers to states in 2023 compared to the previous year.
Carlos Eduardo Xavier, Rio Grande do Norte’s secretary of taxation, said that this compensation contributed to an 8.7% increase in the state’s current revenue.
He highlights that there were also extraordinary revenues from the state itself, such as the sale of the payroll, which generated an additional R$ 384 million for the state last year. Additionally, he recalls that from April to December, the standard ICMS rate in Rio Grande do Norte increased to 20%, compared to the previous 18%.
The law to increase taxes in the state was passed in 2022, but it included the higher rate until December 2023 only, and the state government could not extend the increase for this year. The ICMS revenue had a boost from the installment program for tax debts Refis, which brought additional revenue of R$250 million in 2023.
The installment program and the increase in rates, together with the improvement of collection control and inspection, according to the secretary, led to higher ICMS revenue. According to data from tax reports, the state’s ICMS revenue grew 10.1% in real terms in 2023.
“For 2024, the scenario will be more challenging because we will not have higher ICMS rates, Refis, payroll sale, or the compensation by the federal government. It will be really difficult. For now, FPE revenues came in better in January and February and we will work to increase the ICMS [revenue], but still far from what we had last year,” the secretary points out.
Mr. Xavier says that the government is also studying alternatives for extraordinary revenue.
The favorable scenario for revenues in 2023 did not prevent the state from increasing the spending on personnel in relation to the net current revenue. The indicator increased from 53.37% to 56.94% of the net current revenue from the end of 2022 to last year, 7.94 percentage points above the cap defined in law.
The biggest challenge in payroll spending comes from education, as the legislation in Rio Grande do Norte determines that pay rises should be linear for all professionals, including those at higher salary levels. “It’s the only state with such legislation,” he said.
The performance of 2023 and the scenario expected for 2024, according to Mr. Leal de Barros, will make the states reopen the debate on structural issues that have been left aside since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, until 2022, when revenues still benefited from inflation and high commodity prices.
On the revenue side, the worsening of the ICMS base is expected to return to the debate, while the increase in spending on personnel should reopen the agenda of structural reforms, such as administrative overhaul.
At the end of last year, the Rio Grande do Norte government formally joined the Fiscal Balance Program offered by the National Treasury, said Mr. Xavier. According to him, the state is committed to reduce the spending on personnel by 10% per year.
In Rio Grande do Sul, there was also the effect of ICMS compensation brought forward by the federal government. ICMS collection in 2023 fell 1.1% in real terms, still under the effect of changes in the tax in 2022. Even so, the state’s current revenues increased by 7% in real terms, and the net current revenue, by 6.9%, an increase equivalent to R$6 billion from 2022 to 2023.
The federal compensation paid in 2022 contributed to this scenario, with R$2.3 billion unadjusted, according to the Rio Grande do Sul government. Part of the amount was compensated through a setoff, while another part came in the form of a financial transfer.
Additionally, the state received extraordinary revenues in 2023, such as the R$1.4 billion dividend payout from Corsan, the state’s water utility. These revenues are unlikely to occur again in 2024.
The increase in the net current revenue allowed the government of Rio Grande do Sul to end 2023 with the spending on personnel indicator at 45.03%, down from 47.88% in the previous year, after almost reaching the cap in the first four months of 2023, with 48.81%. In a note, Rio Grande do Sul’s finance department said that it expects to maintain strict control over expenses to comply with the Fiscal Recovery Regime requirements to which the state joined in 2022.
At the end of last year, the Rio Grande do Sul government proposed an increase in the standard ICMS rate, but faced resistance by local legislators and ended up alternatively reviewing the tax benefits, a measure that will come into force by April.
According to Mr. Leal de Barros, one potential solution for states to address the loss of ICMS revenue is to scrutinize tax incentives. Additionally, updating tax collection and inspection procedures could be part of the solution, although the effectiveness of these measures may vary from state to state.
Renata dos Santos, secretary of Finance of Alagoas, says the current administration has been mapping the state’s economic activity and its impact on ICMS collection. She says the state has received a large flow of tourists and the activity has benefited from the pay rises and the expansion of the Bolsa Família income-transfer program in 2023. The state achieved a real increase of 11.7% in tax collection by implementing changes in the tax structure and raising the standard ICMS rate from 17% to 19% in April of last year. The state’s current revenues rose 4.8% while current expenses increased 8.1%.
According to Ms. Santos, the increase in current expenses is due to the opening of two new prisons. She explains that, to cover this new expense, the state maintained the level of other expenses and backed with its own revenues the amount that was not included in the FPE funds. For 2024, she says, the state will keep a strict expense control.
Alagoas closed 2023 with R$2.68 billion in investments, an increase of 2.8% compared to 2022 and of 148.7% in real terms, when compared to R$1.1 billion in 2019, which was also the first year of the previous administration. According to the secretary, the idea is to maintain the same high level of annual investments throughout the current administration. Last year’s investments, she says, were made possible by surpluses from previous periods and by loan transactions. She said the state contracted around R$1 billion in loans last year.
Mr. Leal de Barros highlights that the stimulus the government has offered through loan transactions should be closely monitored. In some subnational entities, that could aggravate the scenario ahead, because part of the spending on investments results in an increase in spending on personnel and costing as well.
Economists discuss whether it’s time for monetary authority to revise forecasts of 50bp cuts in key interest rate
03/04/2024
Gabriel Galípolo — Foto: Pedro França/Agência Senado
As monetary easing progresses in Brazil, a debate is gaining momentum in the market as to when the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) will adjust the communication of its flight plan. The collegial body continues to point to rate cuts of 50 basis points in the next two meetings.
Some believe that less rigid communication from the COPOM could give the monetary authority more room to maneuver at a time of external uncertainty and fears about the trajectory of services inflation. Meanwhile, there are market participants who oppose an immediate change in the so-called forward guidance, arguing that it would add noise at a time of economic slowdown.
Last week, for the first time, this debate was raised more explicitly among COPOM members. The Central Bank’s director of monetary policy, Gabriel Galípolo, said the collegial body dared to start the cycle of interest rate cuts with forward guidance, a tool he described as “a very risky sport for emerging markets.” He made the comments during a presentation at an event organized by Money Report.
“We have engaged in this high-risk sport, and so far, it has paid off. We found a pace of cuts that allowed us to adjust the level of monetary tightening, with the nominal rate following the fall in inflation, while observing the reaction of the economy,” he said.
According to Mr. Galípolo, the instrument has so far helped to reduce the volatility surrounding the Central Bank’s actions in the local market. However, about forward guidance, he said there is an attitude of dependence on the monetary authority’s data. “But at some point, you’ll have to remove the plural [in the guidance] and that could generate a cost,” he said, without anticipating whether the discussion would be taken to the COPOM meeting this month.
The discussion about changing the Central Bank’s future guidance comes at a time when the COPOM has already cut the Selic policy rate by 250 basis points to 11.25% a year. Although there is room for further rate cuts in Brazil, analysts say the Central Bank’s approach of signaling the path of rates over a three-month horizon could prove risky in an environment of external volatility.
According to economists, maintaining a fixed orientation for the Selic rate removes degrees of freedom for the monetary authority, especially at a time when the cycle of rate cuts is already at an advanced stage.
If the COPOM confirms the guidance given in the last decision and market expectations, the Selic rate will fall to 10.75% at the March meeting. The forward guidance in the statement released after the most recent meeting, on January 31, indicates that “the members of the Committee unanimously foresee a reduction of the same magnitude at the next meetings”—with the use of the plural. Therefore, if this strategy is maintained, the rate is expected to fall to 10.25% per year in May and 9.75% at the June meeting.
The problem is that since the beginning of the year, bets on the start of monetary easing in the United States have been delayed. According to data from the CME Group, about a month ago, agents assigned an implicit probability of 99.5% that the Fed Funds would start to fall or would have already fallen by June. Today, there is a 33.7% chance that rates will remain unchanged until then.
At the same time, estimates for the Selic rate at the end of the cutting cycle have also been revised by market operators and last week reached the 9.75% level—a degree that could be reached in June if the COPOM maintains the pace of cuts and future orientation until then. In addition, the latest inflation figures continue to show pressure on components that are sensitive to monetary policy.
On the other hand, real interest rates in Brazil remain at very restrictive levels and, at this point, a change in communication would be a more conservative signaling on the part of the Central Bank.
According to a source from the market’s division of a local institution, the discussion about removing the use of the plural in the statement makes no sense now. “The Central Bank may have decided to implement this guidance to prevent the market from pricing in any chance of acceleration and also to stabilize the curve, sending a relatively hawkish message. By removing the plural at this stage of easing, and with such a high level of real rates, the authority would be adding unnecessary noise to the market and the economy, just when economic growth is starting to moderate,” he said.
For this source, the Central Bank already has a very conservative stance. “Both nominal rates and, especially, the current level of real rates are at very high levels, according to any metric. If you add inflation expectations and other important indicators, such as the exchange rate and commodity prices, to the equation, there is no relevant reason to expect a change in communication,” the source said.
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