Brazilian industries calculate losses, seek new markets

In the aluminum industry, the impact could reach R$1.15 billion by the end of the year, according to estimates from the Brazilian Aluminum Association (Abal). This figure represents direct losses already suffered and projected losses after the 50% tariffs enter into effect. According to Abal, although the surcharge is not cumulative with the tariffs already in effect since June, around one-third of Brazilian exports to the American market are already at risk.

“In 2024, the United States was the third-largest export destination, behind Canada and Norway, accounting for 14.2% of foreign sales, or $773 million. It is estimated that about a third of this total is currently subject to the 50% tariffs, which will make access to the American market unfeasible for several products,” Abal says.

The effects of rising tariffs are already being felt. In the first half of the year, Brazilian exports subject to Section 232 plummeted 28% compared with the first half of 2024, resulting in $ 46 million in losses. This reduction reflects previous tariff hikes of 10% and 25%, now aggravated by the new 50% tariff.

Although alumina, a raw material for primary aluminum production, has been excluded from the list of tariffed products, Abal warns of a systemic risk to the supply chain. In 2024, Brazil exported 1.3 million tons of alumina to the U.S., a volume essential to produce 90% of American primary aluminum. Brazil also supplies Canada with alumina for 64% of the country’s aluminum production, which supplies a share of U.S. industrial demand. “The disruption of regional complementarity could affect supply, redirect trade flows, and compromise the predictability of operations in the three countries.”

After being exempted from the 50% tariffs, the Brazilian pig iron industry faces the challenge of resuming suspended shipments and the production halted by trade uncertainty. In 2024, Brazil produced 3.8 million tons of pig iron, and 85% of the sector’s exports were shipped to the U.S. The inclusion of pig iron in the exemption list was considered crucial to avoid layoffs and widespread shutdowns.

According to Fausto Varela, president of Sindifer, the association of independent mills in the state of Minas Gerais, the challenge is to overcome logistical and operational obstacles that have piled up in recent weeks. “We halted cargo shipment for three ships that were scheduled to depart in August, and now we are talking with buyers to resume operations,” Mr. Varela told Valor.

The state of Paraná’s forestry industry is seeking government support to reduce losses. Apre Florestas, an association of 47 Paraná companies, intends to request subsidized financing and advance tax credits. “From now on, we will establish new strategies,” said Fábio Brun, president of the association.

Apre Florestas will ask the Paraná government that access to credit be provided through the Regional Development Bank (BRDE) for payroll payments; advance tax credits for timber exporters; and flexible payment terms, which are part of a Paraná program aimed at supporting businesses. Apre Florestas also wants to join other business associations to monitor the federal government’s negotiations but believes that the new tariff will be in place for the next six months.

Forestry companies are planning initiatives such as expanding their markets for the products that will no longer be exported to the U.S.

According to the 2024 Apre Sector Report, wood pulp, which was included in the exception list, accounts for 8.64% of the state’s forest-based products sold to the U.S. The other main forest-based products, like wooden frames, wooden doors, pine plywood, and pine sawn timber, among others, have not been exempted from new 50% tariff.

Apre Florestas is still estimating the financial impact of the tariff hike on the Paraná forestry industry. In the first half of the year, exports to the United States generated $ 331 million, in line with the same period last year.

The Brazilian Food Industry Association (ABIA) also considered the exemption list “limited,” a measure that undermines the predictability of trade between U.S. and Brazil. While orange juice—which totaled nearly $750 million in exports in the first half of 2025—was exempt from the additional tariff, other heavily exported products, such as meat, coffee, and vegetable oils, were not.

ABIA released a statement saying the decision “jeopardize the predictability of bilateral trade and creates distortions in value chains.”

According to ABIA’s estimates, based on exports to the U.S., which totaled $2.83 billion in the first half of the year, a hypothetical 10% decline in export volume would result in losses of up to $570 million annually in foreign revenues. ABIA stated that it “advocates cooperative and balanced solutions.”