Estimates suggest the dry season will impose R$1.3 billion in additional costs on the Manaus Free Trade Zone
12/19/2024
The Negro River in Amazonas has reached 12.1 meters this year, its lowest level in over a century. In some tributaries, what used to be waterways has turned into fields dominated by wild rice and mud. A local saying encapsulates the situation: “During the floods, you lose everything, but the drought kills you.”
For the second consecutive year, the state of Amazonas is enduring a severe dry season. In 2023, the Negro River in Manaus measured 12.7 meters, the lowest level since official records began, in 1902. Still, that was more than half a meter higher than the level recorded in 2024. By comparison, the previous record low occurred in 2010, when the river reached 13.63 meters.
Last year, images of dead river dolphins and stranded cargo vessels were common due to the low water levels. This year, with conditions even worse, the scenes have repeated. In a region where rivers serve as the main transportation routes both within the state and beyond, the impacts range from daily life to the balance sheets of companies based in the Manaus Industrial Hub (PIM). The most severe effects are felt socially, as low water levels lead to forced isolation, supply shortages, and challenges in registering for social programs.
The Amazonas State Industry Center (CIEAM) estimates the drought has added over R$1.3 billion in costs for Manaus Free Trade Zone companies. This amount is slightly lower than the extra expenses reported in 2023. To mitigate the worsening effects of the drought, companies have extended their stockpiles and even relocated floating ports. Despite these measures, a survey of PIM sectors revealed that 87% of companies were affected by the so-called drought surcharge, which includes increased freight costs, storage fees for products in third-party warehouses, and additional charges from container transport ships.
The survey, conducted by researchers from the Federal University of Amazonas (UFAM), found that 78% of companies faced navigation restrictions in the Amazon, and transportation costs rose for 87% of them. Most companies absorbed these expenses, but 4% reported passing them on fully through higher product prices, while 35% said they did so partially. “Consumers won’t accept a TV or air conditioner price that fluctuates wildly. What do companies do? They say, ‘This is the new normal.’ In this new normal, they average out annual costs and increase the product price slightly. It’s as if the company takes the annual cost average and adds 30% to determine the product’s price,” said Augusto César Barreto Rocha, a UFAM professor and deputy director of the Amazonas State Industry Federation (FIEAM).
“We’ve found that a dry river is worse than a flooded one,” said Raimundo Kambeba, a teacher at the Kanata T-Ykua Indigenous Municipal School in the Três Unidos community along the Cuieiras River, about an hour and a half by boat from Manaus. Mr. Kambeba, who also owns a community-based lodge in Três Unidos, explained that during floods, rivers often submerge fields, destroy crops, and invade homes, causing damage to riverside residents.
“In the past, droughts were normal. There was still water in the streams and lakes, and fishing was possible. I thought it was a time of abundance with plenty of fish and game. But these past two years, the drought has been too severe, leading to food shortages. It’s wiping everything out, including us,” Mr. Kambeba said.
The Cuieiras River flows into the Negro River on the left bank of Anavilhanas, one of the largest archipelagos in Amazonas. Two years ago, it was possible to reach Três Unidos by boat. Now, due to the drought, disembarkation occurs over a kilometer away on a beach between the two rivers.
Floods and droughts in the Amazon are annual cyclical phenomena. However, by early December, when rivers should already be rising, Brazil’s Geological Service (SGB) indicated that the Amazon River basin was still experiencing extreme drought conditions.
“We’re facing a new reality in the Amazon, a new normal,” said Virgílio Viana, superintendent of the Sustainable Amazon Foundation (FAS). “That will have many serious implications. Everything related to commercial and social interactions will be impacted.”
“The drought shouldn’t be seen solely as an environmental issue. It has economic, social, and public health dimensions,” Mr. Viana emphasized.
“When the river dries up, everything in the communities stops. Students living at the river’s headwaters, for example, can’t travel to school. All our meetings and events are canceled. It’s complete isolation,” Mr. Kambeba said. “The impact is profound—physically, mentally, and spiritually. Communication ceases.”
Mr. Rocha from UFAM believes that increased investment in structural projects in Amazonas could mitigate the drought’s impacts. He cited completing the BR-319 highway, connecting Manaus to Porto Velho (Rondônia), and expanding the state’s waterways as potential benefits for the region.
“Many people are affected in Amazonas. My research focuses on logistics, but the drought problem extends to everyone. Yet, what we see is no discussion of the root causes. Addressing the Amazon region’s issues with dredging, for instance, tackles the effects, not the causes,” Mr. Rocha said.
Mr. Viana agreed but stressed the need for broader investment in the Amazon to ease the drought’s impacts. The FAS superintendent argued that current efforts fall “far short of what’s needed,” particularly in climate adaptation.
“We need all of Brazil’s roughly 6,000 municipalities to have climate adaptation plans with budgets. It can’t remain an aspirational goal—it must include budgets and timelines to ensure implementation. Otherwise, it becomes vague wishful thinking,” Mr. Viana said. “The Amazon always lags behind the rest of Brazil. Budgets are tighter, and the gap in social infrastructure is larger. There’s greater competition for resources. Additionally, the quality of public spending here is very poor. It’s not just about having money but about how effectively and efficiently spending it.”
The journalist’s travel costs were covered by the Amazonas State Industry Center.
By Camila Zarur — Manaus
Source: Valor International