Disapproval of Lula 3 at highest level, at 57%, Genial/Quaest poll shows

The changes are within the margin of error of two percentage points. Since January, disapproval has risen by 8 points, while approval has dropped by 7 points. The latest edition of the bimonthly survey interviewed 2,004 respondents between Thursday (29) and Sunday (1).

Negative evaluations of President Lula’s government also increased slightly, reaching a historical peak of 43%, up from 41% in March. Positive evaluations fell from 27% to 26%. Those rating the administration as “regular” dropped from 29% to 28%. The percentage of Brazilians who believe the country is heading in the wrong direction rose to 61%, up from 56% in March and 50% in January. Meanwhile, 32% believe Brazil is on the right track, compared to 36% and 39% in the two previous rounds.

For the first time, disapproval of President Lula’s government surpassed approval among Catholics, at 53% to 49%. In March, approval and disapproval were tied at 49%. Catholics had previously shown more support than Evangelicals, a group historically more critical of the president. In the latest survey, disapproval among evangelicals stood at 66% (down from 67%), while approval was 30% (up from 29%).

The survey also indicates worsening figures in Mr. Lula’s traditional support voting bloc. His government is disapproved of by 54% of women, 47% of those with only basic education, and 49% of those earning up to two times the minimum wage—all segments showing an upward trend within the margin of error.

Regionally, President Lula’s approval outweighs disapproval only in the Northeast, where 54% support the government and 44% oppose it. In the more populous Southeast region, disapproval stands at a record 64%, while it reaches 62% in the South and 55% in the Central-West.

Improved economic perception

Despite confirming Mr. Lula’s popularity crisis, the survey shows an improvement in economic perceptions. The percentage of respondents who believe Brazil’s economy has worsened fell to 48%, down 8 points from 56% in March. Meanwhile, 18% say the economy has improved (up from 16%), and 30% believe it has stayed the same (up from 26%).

There was also some improvement in approval ratings among those familiar with recent government initiatives. For the proposal to exempt income tax for those earning up to R$5,000 per month, 56% had heard of it, and 45% approved. Regarding the new gas voucher program (Vale-Gás), 59% were aware of it, and 49% approved.

In a report released alongside the poll, political scientist and Quaest CEO Felipe Nunes described the scenario as a paradox, attributing the contradiction to the “widespread impact of negative news.” He noted that cases such as the social security fraud scandal at the National Institute of Social Security (INSS) have diluted positive impacts in other areas.

According to the survey, 56% believe the current Lula administration is worse than his first two terms. In comparison with former President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, 44% believe Lula’s current term is worse, while 45% think the government is performing below expectations.

Social security scandal and IOF tax increase

Some 82% of respondents said they were aware of the INSS fraud scandal. Among them, 31% blamed Lula’s government, 14% cited the INSS itself, and 8% pointed to Bolsonaro’s administration—the same percentage as those blaming the organizations that forged retirees’ signatures. Another 26% said they did not know or did not respond.

Half of the respondents (50%) support opening an Investigative Parliamentary Committee (CPI) to investigate the INSS scandal, while 43% believe a Federal Police investigation is sufficient and that the opposition is only seeking to undermine the government.

Regarding the recovery of embezzled funds, 52% said the government should focus solely on reclaiming assets frozen from the implicated organizations, while 41% said the money should be returned even if public funds are needed.

Regarding changes to the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF), fewer respondents were aware of the issue (39%) than those unaware (58%). Of those who knew, 41% approved of the government’s decision to reverse the IOF hike on investment funds, while 36% disapproved.

However, regarding the maintenance of the IOF increase on dollar purchases by individuals and remittances abroad, 50% said the government was wrong, and 28% said it was right.

Violence and corruption among top concerns

Violence remains the top concern for Brazilians, cited by 30% of respondents. It is followed by social issues (22%) and the economy (19%).