Ministers Rui Costa (Chief of Staff), Paulo Teixeira (Agrarian Development), and Carlos Fávaro (Agriculture) met to finalize proposals to be presented to President Lula this Friday
01/24/2025
The Brazilian government’s top officials are working to address President Lula’s demand for urgent measures to curb rising food prices. However, with limited fiscal room for increased public spending and market concerns over potential interventionist actions, finding effective short-term solutions has proven challenging. Within the Planalto Palace, the seat of the federal government, there is greater certainty about what not to do than clarity on actionable steps.
On Thursday (23), rumors that the government’s plan might involve fiscal-impact measures, such as subsidies to boost popularity, created turbulence in financial markets. That same day, ministers Rui Costa (Chief of Staff), Paulo Teixeira (Agrarian Development), and Carlos Fávaro (Agriculture) met to finalize proposals to be presented to Mr. Lula this Friday. President Lula recently urged his cabinet to expedite the creation of a plan to lower food costs, focusing on staples such as rice, beans, and meat, whose rising prices have fueled public dissatisfaction with his administration.
However, no announcements are expected in the coming days. This Friday’s meeting is expected to produce a draft plan to be discussed with private sector stakeholders and internally within the government. Formal measures could be unveiled only in the first week of February.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad dismissed speculation that the government is considering subsidies or tax cuts to reduce food prices, calling the rumors “unfounded.”
“These rumors serve certain interests. There is no fiscal room for this, nor is it necessary, as this type of measure won’t solve the problem. Instead, we need to improve competition, the business environment, and our imports,” Mr. Haddad said.
He mentioned that one option under consideration is enhancing the portability of the Worker’s Food Program (PAT). Additionally, a stronger harvest in 2025 and the rise of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar are expected to help lower food prices.
“I believe we have room to improve the Worker’s Food Program. There’s regulatory space for the Central Bank to step in,” Mr. Haddad noted, referring to the program’s portability issues. “Although portability is legally established, it’s not functioning properly due to a lack of regulation by the Central Bank.”
Food expiration
Mr. Haddad suggested that proper regulation could lead to a reduction in food prices, including meals consumed outside the home.
“If you lower intermediary costs and eliminate the need for workers to sell their food credits, it could have a favorable impact on food prices,” he explained.
Government officials ruled out using imports or easing food expiration rules, as well as measures with significant budgetary impacts.
The idea of relaxing food expiration standards was proposed to Mr. Lula by the Brazilian Supermarket Association (ABRAS) last year. However, the government and President Lula, already facing communication and image crises, want to avoid giving the impression that they are allowing the sale of spoiled food to the population.
On this topic, Mr. Haddad remarked that ABRAS has the right to make suggestions, but these do not necessarily become public policies.
He also noted that projections by the Economic Policy Secretariat of the Finance Ministry point to a “strong harvest” in 2025, which should help reduce food prices. Additionally, the declining dollar is expected to provide relief.
This week, Edegar Pretto, president of the National Supply Company (CONAB), told reporters that the agency is developing a program to establish a network for affordable food supply. The initiative aims to map areas where low-income populations pay the highest prices for food and intervene to ensure fairer prices, particularly in urban outskirts.
However, this proposal was not discussed during the meeting between ministers Costa, Fávaro, and Teixeira.
The idea of importing staple foods has negative connotations for the government, particularly for Mr. Fávaro of the Ministry of Agriculture’s. Last year, amid high food inflation, Mr. Lula authorized rice imports to address a shortage caused by a disaster in Rio Grande do Sul. The measure faced legal challenges from producers, and the auction for rice imports was eventually canceled in June 2024 due to allegations of irregularities. Agriculture Policy Secretary Neri Geller was dismissed after it was revealed that a former aide, who co-owned a company with Mr. Geller’s son, was involved in the auction negotiations.
Mr. Fávaro remains cautious and plans to consult the meat sector to explore viable solutions. Key industry representatives, however, have yet to be invited for discussions. As for rice, one government expert noted that little can be done until the harvest begins in March, which could help bring prices down.
With limited fiscal and political room for action, the measures under consideration may not deliver the immediate impact Mr. Lula seeks.
A senior Agriculture Ministry official remarked, “There’s no magic trick or rabbit to pull out of a hat,” emphasizing that Brazil operates as a market economy.
The ministry has reiterated in discussions with the Planalto Palace that there is no food shortage and that Brazil is a net exporter of nearly all agricultural products, with the exception of wheat.
In ongoing talks, some have pointed to the exchange rate as a key driver of rising food prices. Increased purchasing power among Brazilians is also cited as a factor. Some government officials believe the country’s large-scale soybean production reduces the availability of land for staple crops, driving up food costs. However, Agriculture Ministry representatives dismiss this as an “ideological perspective.”
*By Fabio Murakawa, Renan Truffi, Rafael Walendorff e Ruan Amorim — Brasília
Source: Valor International