Top mining industry official says supply of critical minerals set to keep steady while usage in U.S. likely to shift to defense sector
02/17/2025
Critical and strategic minerals mined in Brazil are among the key inputs for achieving energy transition goals. Brazilian natural resources like copper, lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare-earth elements are poised for increased production through enhanced geological knowledge, mineral surveying, and new mining concessions, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME).
Some of these critical and strategic minerals are sold to the U.S., and with Donald Trump’s return to the country’s leadership, the market raised concerns about potential reductions in these imports or additional tariffs. However, Raul Jungmann, president of the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram), asserts that Brazil will continue exporting critical and strategic minerals to the U.S. The difference is how they will be used.
Mr. Jungmann notes that out of the 51 strategic minerals consumed by the US, at least 15 can be exported by Brazil. “There is a global rush for minerals, especially strategic ones. Regarding Mr. Trump, the early indications are that there is still interest, but now the reason behind this interest is shifting.”
During Mr. Trump’s previous administration, the critical and strategic minerals purchased by the US were aimed at applications related to energy transition. Now, according to Mr. Jungmann, these products will be directed toward the defense sector. For instance, lithium from Minas Gerais is a vital component of rechargeable batteries, while nickel from Goiás, Bahia, and Piauí is used in stainless steel production. According to consolidated data from the MME, Brazil ranked as the world’s fifth-largest lithium producer in 2022, following Australia, Chile, China, and Argentina. For nickel, Brazil was the ninth-largest producer that year.
A Citibank report indicates that Brazil is well-positioned to attract investments and scale the production of critical minerals. “This could bring economic benefits to Brazil and Latin American countries through mineral supply, job creation, and infrastructure development.”
“Brazil possesses approximately 20% of the global reserves of graphite, nickel, manganese, and rare earth elements. However, production does not match the reserves, accounting for just 0.2% and 7% of the global production of rare earth elements and graphite, respectively. Only 7% of the global exploration budget for nickel and rare-earth elements is allocated to the Latin American region,” according to the bank.
Productivity gains and increased supply drive price adjustments, with exports playing a balancing role
02/17/2025
After being one of the main drivers of inflation in 2024, beef prices in Brazil are showing signs of decline, a trend expected to continue throughout the year’s first half. Productivity gains and increased female cattle slaughter are key factors behind this movement, even as the livestock cycle shifts toward lower supply. Additionally, the opening of new export markets for Brazilian beef could help stabilize domestic prices.
The price of live cattle, which surpassed R$350 per arroba (15 kg) in São Paulo last November, has since dropped to around R$320, while beef cuts are also becoming more affordable. In the Greater São Paulo wholesale market, the price of the very popular picanha—similar to the top sirloin cap—fell by 8.28% over 30 days (as of January 13), according to Scot Consultoria. Alcatra (rump steak) and maminha (rump skirt) declined by 4.26%, and contrafilé (striploin) dropped by 3.97%.
The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC) forecasts a 10% increase in beef exports in 2025, reaching nearly 3.3 million tonnes. Negotiations with key markets such as Vietnam, Japan, Turkey, and South Korea could fuel this growth.
However, ABIEC does not expect the rise in exports to reduce domestic supply. Speaking to Valor, the association’s president, Roberto Perosa, said that while cattle availability will adjust throughout the year due to the livestock cycle shift, the supply to slaughterhouses and both domestic and international consumers will remain steady.
Mr. Perosa attributes this stability to a record grain harvest, which is expected to improve conditions for cattle finishing and feedlot operations, ultimately increasing carcass yields and maintaining overall beef production levels. “We will see productivity gains alongside a reduction in raw material costs,” he said.
Beyond productivity gains, Mr. Perosa said that most beef cuts exported by Brazilian meatpackers—such as front cuts and offal (including tongue, heart, tripe, and intestines)—are not widely consumed in Brazil. This means exports do not significantly compete with domestic beef supplies.
“Exports play a key role in stabilizing cattle prices in Brazil. Selling these products to Asia, where they fetch higher prices, reduces pressure on the cost of cuts consumed locally, such as filé mignon (tenderloin) and picanha (sirloin cap),” Mr. Perosa noted. “The more we export, the better the cost structure for meatpackers. That’s why opening new markets is crucial. Exports determine whether a meatpacker operates at a profit or a loss,” he added.
According to Leonardo Alencar, head of agribusiness, food, and beverages at XP, the increased culling of non-pregnant female cattle at this time of year is also expected to boost supply and keep prices under control throughout the first half of 2025.
“The question is how production and slaughter metrics will play out over the year. While slaughter numbers are expected to decline, the average weight per animal is likely to increase,” Mr. Alencar noted.
Maurício Palma Nogueira, executive director at consultancy Athenagro, challenges the expectation of supply restrictions in 2025 and also highlighted productivity improvements. “The cattle herd is getting younger, we are increasing efficiency, and turnover is accelerating. This allows for more female cattle to be sent to market without compromising herd size,” he said.
This will be the first livestock cycle shift since Brazilian beef entered the Chinese market, and Mr. Nogueira believes this could lead to different dynamics than seen in previous years. “It appears that the cattle industry is now capable of responding more quickly, which could limit major price spikes for consumers,” he said.
“As we look ahead, beef production is likely to adjust faster compared to previous cycle shifts,” he added.
Mr. Nogueira expects some fluctuations in cattle prices and beef retail prices but at a more moderate pace than in 2024. While there could be some price adjustments after the rainy season, stability is expected by the end of the year.
Mr. Perosa, from ABIEC, also anticipates more balanced beef prices in the domestic market but acknowledges that achieving a 10% export growth target “is feasible but challenging.” Even if negotiations for new markets do not materialize as planned, exports could still rise through increased sales to Chile and Mexico, as well as stronger trade with the Middle East. There is particular optimism regarding Vietnam and Japan, both of which President Lula is set to visit in the coming weeks—following a recent visit by Mr. Perosa himself.
Cesar de Castro Alves, head of agribusiness consulting at Itaú BBA, estimates that beef exports could grow between 2% and 5% in 2025, with additional upside potential if new markets open.
Mr. Alencar, however, is skeptical about reaching a 10% export increase, even with expected productivity gains in Brazil’s beef industry.
In 2024, Brazil set a new export record, shipping 2.87 million tonnes of beef—equivalent to 32% of total production.
For the U.S. market, the second-largest buyer after China, Brazil had already exhausted its 65,000-tonne duty-free beef quota—shared with nine other countries—by January 15, underscoring strong demand.
Despite this, Oswaldo Ribeiro Júnior, president of the Mato Grosso Cattle Ranchers Association (ACRIMAT), reassured that both domestic and international markets will remain well-supplied. “There will be no shortage of beef for either market,” he said.
*By Rafael Walendorff e Nayara Figueiredo, Globo Rural — Brasília and São Paulo
Gabriel Galípolo sees country in “elevated level” from the perspective of monetary tightening
02/12/2025
Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo said that “we are moving towards a quite elevated level from the perspective of monetary tightening.” Mr. Galípolo participated in an event on Wednesday morning organized by the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri), the Institute of Economic Policy Studies/Casa das Garças, and the Center for Public Policy Debates (CDPP).
The central banker, who took over Brazil’s monetary authority earlier this year, explained that “it’s logical” that Brazil will navigate a short-term “uncomfortable” period for society, businesses, and families, “a time when inflation should remain at an uncomfortable level, outside the target, reflecting all past events, and you expect monetary policy to gradually take effect and present a deceleration process.”
Mr. Galípolo said that within the Central Bank’s baseline scenario, what is set is “an absolutely traditional expectation of what is expected from the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. In other words, from that point, you begin to witness a deceleration process.”
The COPOM raised the Selic policy rate to 13.25% per annum from 12.25% at the last meeting, in January. The committee also maintained the signal of a 100-basis-point hike for the March meeting.
Asian countries gain ground while Argentina plummets from fourth place in 2023 to 60th in 2024
02/12/2025
Brazil ended 2024 with a trade surplus 25% lower than the previous year and a reduced contribution from its neighbors. The list of the ten countries that generated Brazil’s largest trade surpluses in 2024 no longer includes any Latin American nations. In 2023, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico were part of this ranking. The surplus with these three countries shrank as exports declined and imports grew, driven by domestic demand.
China remained at the top of the list in 2024, although with a smaller surplus, followed by three Southeast Asian nations. Among them, Singapore—a city-state with around 6 million inhabitants—held onto third place, as it did in 2023. Malaysia and Indonesia, in ninth and tenth positions, respectively, were also present in the ranking last year but swapped places in 2024. Newcomers to the top ten were Egypt and Iran, ranking seventh and eighth, up from 16th and 12th places in 2023, respectively.
In a year when exports fell by 0.8% and imports rose by 9%, Brazil’s total trade surplus dropped to $74.2 billion in 2024, down from $98.9 billion in 2023. South America, which was the second-largest source of surplus for Brazil in 2023, slipped to fourth place in 2024, overtaken by the Middle East and Africa. Asia retained its lead for both years.
Argentina plummets
Among the Latin American countries that dropped out of the top ten, Argentina—historically a key market for Brazilian manufactured goods—had the smallest trade surplus with Brazil in 2024. The positive balance of $4.71 billion in 2023 dropped to just $201 million in 2024, pushing the country from fourth place in 2023 to 60th in 2024. Brazilian exports to Argentina fell 17.6% year over year, while imports from Argentina rose 13.2%.
A major factor behind this shift was an atypical surge in soybean exports to Argentina in 2023, which did not repeat in 2024, noted José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB).
Due to a poor harvest, Argentina had to import soybeans to fulfill its export contracts. In 2023, Brazil sold $2 billion worth of soybeans to Argentina, accounting for 12% of the total exports to the country that year. In 2024, shipments returned to normal levels, totaling just $90 million. Meanwhile, Brazilian imports from Argentina were driven by automobiles.
Livio Ribeiro, partner at BRCG and researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre), pointed out that Argentina is undergoing a severe income contraction. “In reality, the country is redefining itself as much poorer than previously perceived. Trade levels are adjusting in the short term between Argentina and the rest of the world, and its share in Brazil’s export agenda is shrinking.”
Brazil’s trade surplus with Chile also shrank, from $3.63 billion in 2023 to $1.71 billion in 2024, pushing the country from sixth place to 18th. Petroleum is Brazil’s main export to Chile, accounting for 29% of total shipments. In 2024, Brazil exported $1.92 billion worth of oil to Chile, a 38% drop from 2023, which drove an overall 16.2% decline in exports to the country. Meanwhile, imports from Chile rose by 14.8%, mainly due to increased copper purchases.
With Mexico, Brazil’s trade surplus shrank from $3 billion in 2023 to $2 billion in 2024, moving Mexico down from seventh to 15th place. This decline resulted from a 9% drop in exports and a 4% increase in imports.
Mexico, another key destination for Brazilian manufactured goods, imported $715 million worth of automobiles from Brazil in 2024. While cars remained Brazil’s top export to Mexico, sales fell 35% from 2023. Meanwhile, Brazilian imports of vehicle parts and accessories from Mexico rose by 22.3%.
Welber Barral, partner at BMJ and former foreign trade secretary, noted that Brazil and Mexico have a longstanding trade agreement primarily focused on the automotive sector. “There’s a proposal to expand the agreement to include more products, but one major obstacle is Mexico’s protectionist stance on agriculture,” he said.
Mr. Barral added that the more aggressive trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump toward the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—the updated version of NAFTA negotiated during his first term and set for review in 2026—could push Mexico to revisit trade talks with Brazil. “It would be an opportunity, though the trade instability caused by Trump’s new tariffs is bad for the entire world,” he said.
Growing influence
For Mr. Ribeiro of BRCG, the decline in trade surpluses with Latin American countries is part of a broader shift in which Brazil is losing its traditionally captive regional market to China. “This is particularly evident in 2024, as China ramped up its exports—especially toward the end of the year—anticipating a worsening trade war,” he said, referring to the expected escalation of tensions between China and the U.S.
Looking ahead, Mr. Ribeiro said the key question is how global trade will balance in 2025. “The 2024 trade agenda was influenced by specific factors, but overall, Brazil remains a major commodity supplier, primarily to Asia. It also exports some industrial products to the Americas, but these are increasingly being replaced by Chinese goods.”
Despite its decline in 2024, Brazil’s trade surplus with China remains by far the largest among all partners, totaling $30.73 billion, down from $51.15 billion in 2023. The drop was driven by both lower exports, which fell to $94.4 billion (nearly $10 billion less than in 2023), and higher imports, which rose from $53.2 billion in 2023 to $63.6 billion in 2024.
Government data indicate that soybean exports accounted for much of the decline in shipments to China. In 2023, amid a record grain harvest, Brazil exported $38.9 billion worth of soybeans to China. In 2024, with lower agricultural production, sales fell to $31.5 billion. Shipments of oil and iron ore remained relatively stable, and together, these three products made up 75% of Brazil’s total exports to China in 2024.
Commodity prices played a significant role in these trends. The average price of crude oil exports fell by 4.4% in 2024, while iron ore prices declined by 5.2%. Soybean prices plummeted by 16.9%, further affecting trade values. Meanwhile, China’s GDP growth remained stable, rising by 5.2% in 2023 and 5% in 2024.
The surge in Brazilian imports from China was driven by domestic demand and China’s strategy to redirect its excess supply to new markets amid rising protectionist measures from the U.S. and Europe. In 2024, Chinese cars took advantage of favorable tariffs and stood out in Brazil’s import data. Boosted by electric and hybrid models, Brazil imported $3.1 billion worth of Chinese automobiles in 2024—triple the value of 2023.
For Mr. Castro of AEB, Brazil’s trade surpluses with China, as well as with countries like Egypt and Iran in 2024, reflect strong commodity sales. The top export to Egypt was corn, followed by sugar and molasses. For Iran, Brazil’s main exports were corn, soybeans, and soybean meal.
Singapore, which ranked third in trade surpluses with Brazil in both 2023 and 2024, serves as a key re-export hub, particularly for China and Southeast Asia. The Netherlands, which held second place both years, plays a similar role for the European Union.
Brazil’s finance minister, Fernando Haddad, said U.S. President Trump’s tariffs are “a generic thing for everyone,” and reaffirmed Lula administration’s willingness to negotiate
02/12/2025
Brazil’s minister of institutional relations, Alexandre Padilha, stated on Tuesday (11) that Brazil “will not engage in any trade war” when commenting on the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum imports. This measure directly impacts Brazil, which was the second-largest supplier of steel to the U.S. last year, trailing only Canada.
“Trade wars benefit no one. Brazil does not encourage and will not engage in any trade war,” he said during a meeting with mayors.
On Monday (10), President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. The Brazilian government is still considering how to respond to this measure, but the initial inclination is to seek negotiations with the U.S. government rather than adopting retaliatory measures.
One approach could be to persuade the Trump administration to reinstate the export quota policy, which had been negotiated between Brasília and Washington during the first term of the Republican president (2017-2021).
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that unilateral tariff impositions by the U.S. government, such as the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, “are counterproductive for the improvement of the global economy” and that “the global economy loses with this contraction.” Minister Haddad also mentioned that “this is not a decision against Brazil; it is something generic for everyone” and reaffirmed the government’s willingness to negotiate. According to him, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce, and Services is gathering information to present to President Lula for decision-making.
The Aço Brasil Institute, which represents steel manufacturers in the country, expressed surprise at President Trump’s decision to impose a 25% import tariff on steel regardless of origin. However, they remain confident “in the opening of dialogue between the governments of the two countries to reestablish the flow of steel products to the United States based on the agreements reached in 2018.”
The taxation nullifies an agreement made with Brazil during Mr. Trump’s first term, which set export quotas for the U.S. market at 3.5 million tonnes of slabs and semi-finished products and 687,000 tonnes of rolled products. This measure was negotiated after the U.S. had established 25% import tariffs. “It’s important to note that the negotiation that took place in 2018 met not only Brazil’s interest in preserving access to its main external steel market but also the interest of the American steel industry, which demands Brazilian slabs,” Aço Brasil stated.
In 2024, the U.S. imported 5.6 million tonnes of slabs to meet domestic demand, as they are not self-sufficient in this type of steel product. Of this volume, 3.4 million tonnes came from Brazil. According to Aço Brasil, Brazilian sales fully complied with the conditions established under the “hard quota” regime. The institute also notes that Brazil has been “plagued” by a significant increase in imports from countries engaging in “predatory competition, especially China.” As a result, the industry has requested that the Brazilian government implement trade defense measures, currently applicable to nine types of steel (NCMs).
“Therefore, contrary to the claims in the American government’s decision of February 10, there is no possibility of circumvention occurring in Brazil for steel products originating from third countries to the United States,” Aço Brasil argues. According to the institute, the United States and Brazil have a longstanding commercial partnership historically favorable to the U.S., with an average trade surplus of $6 billion over the past five years. Considering the main items in the steel chain (coal, steel, and machinery and equipment), the U.S. and Brazil negotiate approximately $7.6 billion, with the U.S. having a surplus of $3 billion.
*By Fabio Murakawa, Ruan Amorim, Guilherme Pimenta e Stella Fontes — Brasília and São Paulo
CEO Milton Maluhy Filho says projections could improve if macro conditions exceed expectations, while analysts view bank’s outlook as conservative
02/07/2025
After another year of record results in 2024, Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s largest private bank, released a conservative guidance for 2025, according to market analysts. Itaú CEO Milton Maluhy Filho emphasized on Thursday (6) that this stance reflects greater macroeconomic uncertainty but noted that if conditions improve beyond initial expectations, the bank may revise its projections upward.
“Guidance represents a range, not a fixed point,” he said. “In 2024, we started the year with a certain portfolio pace and ended with a completely different one” he added, referring to stronger-than-expected credit expansion last year. If the economic outlook turns out to be more favorable, Itaú has significant capacity to accelerate, he noted. “We’ve never been better positioned to handle any scenario.”
Credit growth
Itaú’s expanded loan portfolio reached R$1.35 trillion in December 2024, marking a 15.5% increase over 12 months. Adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations, the expansion was 10.2%. The bank had already revised its 2024 guidance upward, projecting growth between 9.5% and 12.5%, but for 2025, it now forecasts a much lower expansion of 4.5% to 8.5%.
The cost of credit is expected to range between R$34.5 billion and R$38.5 billion, a figure Mr. Maluhy said he is comfortable with.
For the bank’s Brazilian operations, Mr. Maluhy expects credit growth to land in the middle of the guidance range, between 6.5% and 7%. In the small and medium-sized business segment, growth could once again exceed double digits, he added.
Mr. Maluhy highlighted strong portfolio management efforts and said even the more volatile segments—such as personal and SME loans—are in healthy shape.
Regarding delinquency rates, he acknowledged there could be a slight increase but expects overall stability.
“It’s hard to imagine further improvement in default indicators, as they are already at historic lows,” he said. Itaú’s delinquency rate stood at 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 2.6% in the third quarter and 2.8% in the last three months of 2023.
During an earnings call, Mr. Maluhy was asked about Itaú’s net interest margin with the market, which is projected between R$1 billion and R$3 billion for 2025. He acknowledged that this figure is difficult to forecast, and given macroeconomic uncertainties, the bank chose a conservative estimate.
“Our ability to improve market-related margins is there, but it will depend on the scenario,” he said. “If we perform better than expected, we may revise guidance in the first or second quarter.”
On dividend distribution, Mr. Maluhy said that, barring any major changes, the bank expects to pay an additional dividend on 2025 earnings. “Our goal is not to retain excess capital,” he said. “When an extraordinary dividend is paid every year, it stops being extraordinary—so we’re calling it an ‘additional’ dividend now,” he added.
Mr. Maluhy also praised the government’s initiative to revamp the private payroll loan market in collaboration with banks. “It could become a very strong credit program, highly beneficial for the country,” he said.
The private payroll loan market is currently valued at around R$40 billion, with Itaú holding a 30% share. However, Mr. Maluhy said the bank would prefer to hold a smaller share in a much larger market—potentially four to five times its current size.
While acknowledging implementation challenges, he said that once the project is completed, it will greatly facilitate business participation.
“The new payroll loan system must be available across all channels—there cannot be a monopoly by a single marketplace,” he noted.
Market reaction
Analysts praised Itaú’s fourth-quarter results, highlighting credit growth, record-low delinquency rates, and strong profitability. However, the conservative guidance and slightly lower-than-expected implied profit left some market participants unimpressed.
Goldman Sachs estimates R$45.0 billion in net income for 2025, 3% below previous projections. “We believe Itaú continues to deliver the best performance among Brazil’s traditional banks. However, the overall earnings, dividend, and guidance announcement did not bring major positive surprises,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Citi analysts also described the guidance as somewhat disappointing, noting that Itaú’s credit provisions assume a highly challenging macroeconomic environment. However, they pointed out that if the economy proves resilient, there could be room for adjustments.
“Despite operating expense pressures, we believe Itaú has room to reach the upper end of its guidance range,” Citi noted.
*By Álvaro Campos e Mariana Ribeiro, Valor — São Paulo
Fewer Brazilians are in debt or behind on payments, but more income is going toward loan repayments, according to trade association CNC
02/07/2025
The share of indebted and delinquent consumers declined in January, according to the Consumer Debt and Delinquency Survey by the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services, and Tourism (CNC). However, the portion of household income dedicated to debt payments increased, reaching its highest level in eight months.
The percentage of households reporting debt fell from 76.7% in December 2024 to 76.1% in January 2025. This figure was also lower than 78.1% in January 2024.
The share of households with overdue debt stood at 29.1% in January, slightly down from 29.3% in December, though still above 28.3% in January 2024. Among those unable to repay their loans, the proportion dropped to 12.7%, compared to 13% in December, but remained higher than 12% in January 2024.
Meanwhile, the share of household income allocated to debt payments reached 30% in January, up from 29.8% in December, marking the highest level since May 2024 (30.1%).
Another notable trend was the increase in consumers who consider themselves “heavily indebted”, which rose to 15.9% in January, the highest level since September 2024.
“High interest rates and tighter credit availability are leading consumers to take on fewer new debts. However, as an unintended consequence, they feel an increased burden from their existing obligations,” said José Roberto Tadros, president of the CNC-SESC-SENAC System, in a statement.
“The slight improvement in delinquency rates suggests that Brazilian households have been making an effort to balance their finances. However, the growing share of income committed to debt payments is a warning sign for the economy in 2025,” he added.
Despite the recent improvement in debt and delinquency indicators, the CNC cautioned that household debt levels could rise again throughout the year. The organization projects that by the end of 2025, 77.5% of Brazilian households will be in debt, with 29.8% classified as delinquent.
“The combination of increased reliance on credit for consumption and persistently high interest rates will make financial management even more challenging for Brazilian consumers,” said Felipe Tavares, economist at CNC.
In January, credit cards remained the most widely used form of consumer credit, accounting for 83.9% of total debt holders, CNC noted.
By the end of 2025, 77.5% of Brazilian households will be in debt, with 29.8% classified as delinquent, CNC says — Photo: Marcello Casal/Agência Brasil
Block trade seen as likely option over share offering
02/07/2025
Carrefour Brasil reported net income of R$221m in the third quarter of 2024, up 67.4% year over year
Península, the investment vehicle of the Diniz family, is in talks with banks to sell its 7.3% stake in Carrefour Brasil but has yet to select a lead advisor. With the retailer’s market capitalization at R$13.6 billion, the Diniz heirs’ stake is valued at R$992.8 million.
A block trade—the full sale of the stake in a single transaction—appears to be the preferred approach given the size of the position, the stock’s liquidity, and the success of similar deals in the current market, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Península is also one of the largest shareholders of the Carrefour group listed in Paris, holding an 8.83% stake worth approximately €812.4 million based on the company’s current €9.2 billion market cap. Carrefour’s shares have declined 17.4% over the past year on the Paris exchange.
Since the European stock is more liquid, Península may prioritize selling its stake in the French parent company first, though the final decision will depend on market conditions.
Abilio Diniz first acquired a stake in the French-controlled retailer in 2014 after a dispute with Jean-Charles Naouri, then head of Casino, over GPA. Mr. Diniz attempted to renegotiate the terms of GPA’s sale and even proposed merging Pão de Açúcar’s operations with Carrefour in Brazil, but the plan fell through.
In 2018, Península reduced its position in Carrefour Brasil, then valued at R$31 billion, from 11.46% to 8.91% through a R$805 million block trade on the B3 stock exchange. Today, the company is worth R$13.5 billion, with its shares down 41.72% over the past 12 months but up 18.04% year-to-date. The investment firm’s intention to sell its stake was first reported by O Globo columnist Lauro Jardim.
Península executives hold three of the 13 seats on Carrefour Brasil’s board of directors. Mr. Diniz previously served on Carrefour’s board in France before being replaced by Eduardo Rossi, who also represents Península on the Brazilian board.
In Brazil, Carrefour operates the Atacadão wholesale chain, Sam’s Club, Carrefour Hiper, Carrefour Bairro, Nacional, Super Bompreço, and Carrefour Express. It has also expanded into other segments with Carrefour Drogarias, Carrefour Posto, real estate arm Carrefour Property, and financial services through Banco Carrefour.
The planned stake sale could put additional pressure on Carrefour Brasil’s already discounted shares. Analysts at J.P. Morgan noted in a late-January report that Península’s stake is equivalent to roughly nine days of average trading volume.
Carrefour Brasil is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7 times its projected 2025 earnings. J.P. Morgan maintains a neutral rating on the stock with a price target of R$11.50, implying an 85% upside from its current level of R$6.23.
In the third quarter of 2024, Carrefour Brasil reported net income of R$221 million, up 67.4% year over year, driven by cost reductions, synergy gains, and operating leverage from sales growth. However, its EBITDA margin remained stable at 5.7%. The group has been working to improve margins at Atacadão by expanding its B2C offerings, adding in-store services such as bakeries, butcher counters, and deli sections.
When contacted, Península stated that it “does not comment on market rumors.”
The plan was one of the conditions for the environmental agency to proceed with the analysis of the company’s request for a license to explore oil in the Amazon River mouth
02/06/2025
Ivan Werneck Bassères, the coordinator of environmental licensing for oil and gas exploration at the environmental protection agency IBAMA, has requested that the agency’s experts team prioritize the evaluation of the wildlife protection plan submitted by Petrobras. This plan is a prerequisite for the environmental agency to proceed with the licensing application for oil exploration in the Mouth of the Amazon, part of the Equatorial Margin.
In a document released in IBAMA’s system on Tuesday (4), the coordinator asks the technical team to assess the possibility of approving the plan and the feasibility of Petrobras conducting the pre-operational assessment (APO).
The APO is a test in which the company simulates an oil spill in the region and demonstrates its capacity to resolve the issue with teams and vessels. This evaluation is the final step to obtaining the environmental license.
On Monday (3), President Lula indicated to the new President of the Senate Davi Alcolumbre that the government will work to “quickly” unlock exploratory activities in the region. Mr. Lula reportedly said that oil exploration in the Mouth of the Amazon “needs” to be carried out as soon as possible.
On Wednesday, the CEO of the oil company, Magda Chambriard, said that the company responded to all the environmental agency’s demands in November. “We submitted all of Ibama’s requirements in the last days of November. We are constructing the wildlife rehabilitation center in Oiapoque, as requested, which should be ready by March,” she said. “Now, we are awaiting IBAMA’s evaluation of the material we submitted.”
Rodrigo Agostinho, the president of IBAMA, told Valor last Thursday (30) that the license is expected to move forward only after March, when Petrobras anticipates completing the wildlife protection unit.
The plan was one of the conditions for the environmental agency to proceed with the analysis of the company’s request for a license to explore oil in the Amazon River mouth
02/06/2025 12:56 PM Updated uma hora
Ivan Werneck Bassères, the coordinator of environmental licensing for oil and gas exploration at the environmental protection agency IBAMA, has requested that the agency’s experts team prioritize the evaluation of the wildlife protection plan submitted by Petrobras. This plan is a prerequisite for the environmental agency to proceed with the licensing application for oil exploration in the Mouth of the Amazon, part of the Equatorial Margin.
In a document released in IBAMA’s system on Tuesday (4), the coordinator asks the technical team to assess the possibility of approving the plan and the feasibility of Petrobras conducting the pre-operational assessment (APO).
The APO is a test in which the company simulates an oil spill in the region and demonstrates its capacity to resolve the issue with teams and vessels. This evaluation is the final step to obtaining the environmental license.
On Monday (3), President Lula indicated to the new President of the Senate Davi Alcolumbre that the government will work to “quickly” unlock exploratory activities in the region. Mr. Lula reportedly said that oil exploration in the Mouth of the Amazon “needs” to be carried out as soon as possible.
On Wednesday, the CEO of the oil company, Magda Chambriard, said that the company responded to all the environmental agency’s demands in November. “We submitted all of Ibama’s requirements in the last days of November. We are constructing the wildlife rehabilitation center in Oiapoque, as requested, which should be ready by March,” she said. “Now, we are awaiting IBAMA’s evaluation of the material we submitted.”
Rodrigo Agostinho, the president of IBAMA, told Valor last Thursday (30) that the license is expected to move forward only after March, when Petrobras anticipates completing the wildlife protection unit.
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