JBS opens ‘superprotein’ R&D hub in southern Brazil

JBS Biotech unit in Florianópolis receives $37m investment

 

 

JBS is set to inaugurate a research center in Florianópolis focused on the development of cultivated protein. Named JBS Biotech, the facility has been designed to operate across the full value chain—from early-stage research to industrial scale—in the market for lab-built protein supplements derived from cells similar to animal muscle tissue.

The multinational’s biotechnology arm aims to advance research and development to produce “superproteins” with tailored characteristics. According to CEO Gilberto Tomazoni, “it is not meat, but cultivated protein.”

Lab-produced biotechnology will serve as a food supplement ingredient to be used in shakes, cereal bars, and JBS products. Tomazoni added that the goal of JBS Biotech is to accelerate proof-of-concept work and pave the way for future industrial-scale applications.

The new complex includes more than 20 laboratories spread across 4,000 square meters at the Sapiens Parque innovation center. Chemical engineer Fernanda Berti, who holds a postdoctoral degree from the European Institute of Excellence in Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine, will lead the division.

Four years ago, JBS announced a $100 million investment to enter the cultivated protein segment. The outlay included the construction of the biotechnology center in Florianópolis, which received $37 million, and, in Spain, the first cultivated protein plant of BioTech Foods, in which the multinational is the majority shareholder.

Berti said the research center in Santa Catarina’s capital focuses on developing technology rather than finished products—namely functional proteins and bioactive ingredients that complement JBS’s existing portfolio. “We are entering a new frontier, where it is possible to understand the potential of protein-based foods at the molecular level and develop solutions with tailored nutritional and functional characteristics for different consumer needs,” she said.

The global protein supplements market is estimated to have generated $30 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $63 billion by 2033, growing at an average annual rate of 10.3% between 2026 and 2033, according to U.S. market research firm Grand View Research. The consultancy said rising awareness of health and wellness is driving the segment.

Tomazoni said consumer behavior is increasingly focused on longevity and quality of life. “Now we have the [weight-loss] injections, a medical technology that has been changing consumer behavior. This is a group seeking advanced precision nutrition,” he said.

*By Marcos Fantin, Globo Rural — São Paulo

Source:Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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U.S. tariffs cut into sales of Brazilian manufacturers

From Taurus to WEG, companies say U.S. trade barriers hurt revenue and margins, even as some effects begin to ease

 

 

 

Iochpe-Maxion plant in Castaños, Mexico: revenue declines as an indirect effect of tariffs — Foto: Divulgação
Iochpe-Maxion plant in Castaños, Mexico: revenue declines as an indirect effect of tariffs — Photo: Divulgação

Gunmaker Taurus expects at some point to recover $18 million it paid in export tariffs to the United States, charges that were struck down in February by the country’s Supreme Court.

Like Taurus, other large Brazilian companies with exports to the U.S. or production in North America spent the second half of 2025 trying to find ways around the impact of Washington’s tariff offensive.

Now that fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings season has passed, manufacturers such as Tupy, Iochpe-Maxion, WEG and Taurus itself are calculating the damage U.S. tariffs inflicted on their results.

“Our war is over,” Taurus Chief Executive Salesio Nuhs said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call, referring to the end of the 50% tariff that had been applied to shipments to the U.S.

Firearms were not included on the list of products exempted from the 40% surcharge announced by U.S. President Donald Trump in July last year, which was added to the initial 10% “reciprocal” tariff.

Indirect damage

Brazilian multinational Iochpe-Maxion, which operates in 14 countries producing vehicle wheels and components for the transport industry, faced a R$700 million hit to revenue because of the tariff shock. Since it has four plants in Mexico and the U.S., the company did not suffer direct effects from the tariffs, as products made in Mexico are exempt when shipped to the U.S. market under regional trade agreements.

But its production was hurt by a drop in sales volumes of steel wheels and chassis for heavy trucks. The impact was indirect: as tariffs reduced U.S. imports, freight volumes and freight prices fell, weakening transport operators’ appetite to renew fleets.

“The drop in volumes was much more related to weaker end demand than to a direct effect from tariffs,” Renato Salum, Iochpe-Maxion’s finance and investor relations director, told Valor. “The decline in truck production in North America last year was more an indirect than a direct consequence of the tariffs. The end buyer does not immediately feel the inflationary impact on prices, which increases uncertainty and leads to postponed purchase decisions, affecting demand throughout the chain, including in Mexico,” Salum said.

In financial terms, Iochpe-Maxion saw “a reduction of roughly R$700 million in revenue, equivalent to about 35% of revenue in North American structural components,” he said.

Based on conversations with clients and analysis from specialized consultancies, the company expects demand to normalize in the second half of 2026.

“That view is supported by rising orders for heavy-duty vehicles since late 2025, a trend that strengthened at the start of this year.”

Rising prices

For Taurus, a new 10% tariff announced by Trump on the same day as the court ruling, under a different legal provision in U.S. trade law, was largely offset by the 7% price increase the company imposed on its products in the U.S. at the start of the tariff shock, according to Nuhs.

To reduce the impact, the company also activated assembly lines at its Taurus USA subsidiary in Georgia, shifting to exports of parts, which carry lower value than fully assembled products. All pistols in the G family are now made at the U.S. unit.

“In addition, we took radical measures on productivity, whether through headcount reduction or changes in our production processes,” Nuhs told Valor. Even so, Taurus estimates it paid $18 million in tariffs in 2025 and early this year.

The company hired two law firms in the U.S. to seek reimbursement of those tariffs and recently decided to continue with only one.

Mixed picture

Foundry group Tupy cited the tariff shock as one of the factors pressuring sales of structural components such as engine blocks and cylinder heads in its fourth-quarter performance. Net revenue from that segment fell 5.1% year on year, to R$1.31 billion in the period.

For this year, Tupy’s management said on the earnings call that it sees positive signs in the external environment, with reduced tariff-related uncertainty translating into higher orders from automakers, which should lift Tupy’s production from the second half onward. The company declined to comment.

In a report, analysts at Banco Safra said the removal of the 50% tariff should improve the electrical equipment manufacturer WEG’s competitiveness, allowing it to resume direct exports from Brazil to the U.S. rather than relying on Mexico as an intermediary.

In an interview with Valor in October last year, Chief Financial Officer André Rodrigues said the company’s Mexican unit was almost entirely dedicated to the U.S. market.

On the fourth-quarter earnings call, after the tariffs were struck down, Rodrigues said it was still too early to draw a new scenario and noted that the 50% tariff on imports of steel, aluminum and several related products remains in force under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

In a note on the results, Citi said that although revenue remained under pressure, WEG’s 34% gross margin in the fourth quarter suggests the company “is improving its mix and dealing with tariff effects more quickly than the market had anticipated.” WEG declined to comment.

*By Nelson Rocco — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Juíza proíbe plano de negativar nome de usuário por dívida de cirurgia

A exigência de pagamento por material cirúrgico em um procedimento já autorizado, sem a prestação de informações claras ao consumidor sobre custos adicionais, torna o débito controvertido e afasta a possibilidade de restrição de crédito.

 

 

 

 

1 de abril de 2026

 

Pixabay

médicos fazendo cirurgia

Operadora foi proibida de negativar nome de paciente por dívida com material cirúrgico

 

Com base neste entendimento, a magistrada Fabiana Calil Canfour de Almeida, da 7ª Turma do Núcleo 4.0 em Segundo Grau do Tribunal de Justiça do Estado de São Paulo, concedeu liminar para proibir uma operadora de saúde e um hospital de inscreverem o nome de um paciente em cadastros de inadimplentes.

O litígio teve início após um beneficiário de plano de saúde na modalidade “livre escolha” passar por uma cirurgia de alta complexidade na coluna cervical. O procedimento teve aprovação prévia da operadora. Durante a operação, os médicos usaram materiais implantáveis indispensáveis ao sucesso da intervenção, como placas, parafusos e enxerto ósseo sintético.

Após a alta hospitalar, o consumidor foi surpreendido com uma cobrança direta do hospital referente aos insumos, no valor de R$ 79 mil. Ele narrou que não teve acesso a nenhuma informação prévia e específica sobre limitações de cobertura ou a apresentação de um orçamento detalhado antes de sua internação.

Diante da cobrança inesperada, o paciente ajuizou uma ação requerendo que a operadora cobrisse integralmente as despesas. Ele também pediu uma tutela de urgência para impedir a restrição de seu nome enquanto a validade da dívida fosse discutida. O juízo de primeira instância negou o pedido liminar.

Inconformado, o autor apresentou um Agravo de Instrumento ao TJ-SP. Ele argumentou que a decisão gerava risco de dano irreparável, uma vez que os insumos cobrados foram usados em uma cirurgia eletiva prescrita e aprovada. Afirmou ainda que os materiais não são acessórios, mas partes indissociáveis do ato médico, o que evidenciaria a falha no dever de transparência.

Proteção ao consumidor

Ao analisar o recurso, a relatora acolheu os argumentos do autor e concedeu a tutela de urgência. A magistrada apontou que a situação exigia a proteção do consumidor contra o risco de restrição de crédito, já que os valores exigidos ainda estão em discussão judicial.

“Analisados os argumentos do agravante, por medida de cautela, há que se deferir o efeito ativo pleiteado, para o fim de determinar que as rés se abstenham de inscrever ou manter o nome do autor, ora agravado, nos cadastros de proteção ao crédito, relativamente ao débito discutido nos autos”, determinou a magistrada.

A decisão ordenou que a cobrança coercitiva não seja feita até o julgamento final da demanda, estipulando a aplicação de multa diária de R$ 500 em caso de descumprimento. A relatora destacou que todos os demais pontos do litígio serão analisados de forma aprofundada pelo colegiado no julgamento do mérito recursal.

Agravo de Instrumento 4019195-92.2026.8.26.0000

Fonte: Conjur

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Desembargador autoriza advogada argentina que imitou “macaco” a deixar o país

Relator do TJ/RJ condicionou viagem ao pagamento de R$ 97 mil como garantia de cumprimento de eventual pena e indenização.
Injúria racial

 

01 de abril de 2026

O desembargador Luciano Silva Barreto, do TJ/RJ, autorizou a advogada argentina Agostina Páez, acusada de injúria racial, a voltar para a Argentina após o fim da instrução, mediante caução e manutenção das obrigações processuais.

Segundo a promotoria, ela ofendeu três funcionários de um bar em Ipanema, em janeiro, com expressões racistas e gestos imitando um macaco, condutas registradas em vídeo.

Medidas cautelares revistas após instrução

Ao analisar o pedido, o desembargador concluiu que, com o fim da instrução, as medidas cautelares já não eram mais necessárias, pois não havia atos processuais que exigissem a permanência da acusada no Brasil. Por isso, entendeu que a proibição de saída do país não se justificava no atual estágio da ação penal.

Ele também destacou que o MP e a assistência de acusação concordaram com a liberação, desde que fosse fixada uma garantia financeira para assegurar eventual indenização às vítimas. Na avaliação do desembargador, a negativa do pedido contrariou a posição convergente da acusação sem apresentar fundamento concreto bastante para manter cautelares tão gravosas.

Como condição para deixar o Brasil, a advogada deverá pagar R$ 97 mil, valor equivalente a 60 salários mínimos, a título de caução. A quantia funcionará como garantia para cumprimento de eventual pena e reparação de danos. Mesmo fora do país, a acusada deverá manter endereço e contatos atualizados, além de se apresentar à Justiça brasileira sempre que necessário.

O relator também considerou que a advogada é primária, possui profissão definida e colaborou com o andamento do processo, inclusive com manifestação pública de arrependimento. Para ele, esses elementos enfraquecem a hipótese de fuga.

Na decisão, o desembargador avaliou ainda que impedir a saída do país após o encerramento da instrução configuraria constrangimento indevido. Ressaltou que acordos internacionais entre Brasil e Argentina permitem que, em caso de condenação, a pena seja cumprida no país de origem.

Por fim, assinalou que a repercussão do caso não autoriza, por si só, a manutenção da restrição.

O caso

O episódio ocorreu em janeiro deste ano, em um bar localizado em Ipanema, zona Sul do Rio de Janeiro.

Segundo a investigação, Agostina Páez se envolveu em uma discussão após discordar do valor da conta e passou a dirigir ofensas de cunho racista a funcionários do estabelecimento.

De acordo com os relatos, ela chamou um dos empregados de “negro” de forma pejorativa e, em seguida, utilizou a expressão “mono” – termo que significa “macaco” em espanhol -, além de imitar gestos e sons do animal. As ofensas teriam sido reiteradas contra outros trabalhadores, inclusive fora do bar.

Em 18 de janeiro, a Justiça determinou a apreensão do passaporte e o uso de tornozeleira eletrônica, a pedido da Polícia Civil, como medidas cautelares durante a investigação.

Posteriormente, em 6 de fevereiro, após o oferecimento da denúncia pelo MP/RJ, o juiz de Direito da 37ª vara Criminal do Rio de Janeiro decretou a prisão preventiva da acusada, sob fundamento de reiteração das condutas e gravidade dos fatos.

No mesmo dia, no entanto, a prisão foi revogada, sendo mantidas as medidas cautelares, como a proibição de deixar o país e o monitoramento eletrônico.

A denúncia aponta que os relatos das vítimas foram corroborados por testemunhas, imagens de câmeras de segurança e outros registros produzidos no momento dos fatos, afastando a versão defensiva de que os gestos teriam sido mera brincadeira.

Desde então, Agostina respondia ao processo em liberdade, no Brasil, sob monitoramento, enquanto aguarda a sentença.

Processo: 0020717-23.2026.8.19.0000

Fonte: https://www.migalhas.com.br/quentes/452976/desembargador-autoriza-advogada-que-imitou-macaco-a-deixar-o-pais

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COPOM urges caution while markets price in more rate cuts

Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee leaves room to speed up easing, while a pause looks less likely unless war triggers broader market stress

 

 

The minutes of the Central Bank of Brazil’s latest Monetary Policy Committee, or COPOM, meeting reinforced the market’s view that the country remains in an easing cycle.

By Tuesday (24), the interpretation had gained ground that, even with the war in the Middle East and uncertainty over oil prices, a pause in rate cuts now appears less likely than a possible acceleration in the pace of monetary easing.

The committee sought to sound cautious, saying that its next steps would be determined “over time” amid an uncertain backdrop made even more complex by the war in the Middle East. Even so, it signaled the continuation of a Selic “calibration” cycle after lowering the base rate last week to 14.75% from 15%.

Among market participants, the minutes largely reinforced the message already delivered in the meeting statement. In the section explaining its decision, the committee said that “recent events” would not prevent the materialization of the guidance it had given in January, when it judged that the start of an interest-rate cutting cycle would be appropriate.

COPOM said it had analyzed “the options for the pace of the start of the base-rate calibration cycle” and concluded that a 25-basis-point cut was the most appropriate move at this stage. “The magnitude and duration of the calibration cycle will be determined over time, as new information is incorporated into its analyses,” it said.

In economists’ view, that passage shows an asymmetry in COPOM’s thinking. It would take a worsening of the war, with additional effects on oil prices and the exchange rate, to interrupt the cutting cycle, while any improvement in the external backdrop could allow the pace of cuts to accelerate to 50 basis points with fewer obstacles.

Felipe Sichel, chief economist at Porto Asset, said the minutes brought little new compared with the statement and made clear that COPOM believes rates remain highly restrictive and are having the expected effect on activity.

“The main discussion was about pace and about confirming that we are, in fact, in a rate-cutting cycle. The bar for interrupting that process is currently very high. Barring a disruption in the exchange rate and oil prices, the next moves remain Selic cuts,” he said.

According to BTG Pactual’s team, led by Tiago Berriel, the minutes reinforced a dovish tone by remaining broadly neutral relative to the Central Bank’s earlier communication.

“The minutes are consistent with the view that COPOM left the door open both to accelerate and to maintain the 25-basis-point pace ahead, depending on how the geopolitical backdrop evolves. The bar for interrupting the cycle seems high to us. So if the current scenario holds, our call remains for the cycle to continue with a 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting. A reduction in uncertainty with positive effects on energy prices would lead to an acceleration to a 50-basis-point move,” they said.

War clouds outlook

For Itaú Unibanco, the minutes suggest the Central Bank remains confident in its ability to calibrate the degree of monetary restriction.

COPOM said the magnitude and duration of the cycle will depend on incoming information.

In recent weeks, the war involving Israel, Iran, and the United States has added uncertainty and pushed oil prices higher. Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel.

“That decision [to cut rates and wait for new information] is consistent with the current scenario, in which the duration and extent of geopolitical conflicts, as well as mixed signals about the pace of economic slowdown and its effects on price levels, make it harder to identify clear trends,” the committee said.

The market was also trying to understand why COPOM projected inflation at 3.3% over its relevant policy horizon, well below what economists had expected.

According to the committee, the oil price is assumed to follow the futures curve for the next six months and then rise 2% a year thereafter. “Given the observed Brent futures curve, this framework translated into a declining path in the second half of the year, after a sharp increase in the short term,” COPOM said.

“In practice, that meant an upward revision to short-term inflation, but with a partial reversal over the relevant horizon, helping keep the projection relatively lower for the third quarter of 2027,” BTG Pactual said.

For Itaú Unibanco’s economics team, led by former Central Bank director Mario Mesquita, the minutes indicate that the authority remains confident in its ability to calibrate the level of monetary restriction despite the global turbulence. “In fact, the minutes suggest that only the options of a 25-basis-point cut or a 50-basis-point cut were on the table,” the bank’s economists wrote.

According to Itaú, COPOM also highlighted that the disinflation process has lost momentum in more recent readings, something that was not in the statement, and that a possible reacceleration in activity in the first quarter “will not imply a major change in its current scenario.” In that sense, the bank said, the minutes are consistent with an acceleration in the pace of Selic cuts in April, to 50 basis points, which would take the rate to 14.25%.

Split signals

J.P. Morgan economists led by Cassiana Fernandez share the view that the next meeting could bring a larger cut. For the bank, the minutes signaled further easing, even as they stressed the uncertainty created by the war and played down the recent improvement in activity data. “It will be important to watch how the Central Bank handles these mixed signals in its estimate of the output gap,” they said.

For J.P. Morgan, the minutes brought little new on inflation. “The Central Bank referred to the inflation process using past-tense verbs, which probably reflects the expected impact of the conflict, already incorporated into the projections, on the IPCA inflation index. The Central Bank highlighted that inflation expectations had been falling before the conflict, but have risen again since then,” the U.S. bank’s economists said in a report.

*By Gabriel Roca, Victor Rezende and Gabriel Shinohara — São Paulo and Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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China eyes Brazil rail and ports, warns on taxes

Brazilian government says expanding transport infrastructure is a priority and that it is working to improve legal certainty and unlock private investment

 

 

 

China Summit: Panel discusses opportunities in logistics and infrastructure
China Summit: Panel discusses opportunities in logistics and infrastructure — Photo: Heka Produciones/Valor

China sees major investment opportunities in Brazil’s rail and port infrastructure, but the complexity of the country’s tax system is still viewed as a significant obstacle. Expanding the sector is one of the Brazilian government’s priorities, and officials say they are working to increase legal certainty and unlock private investment.

The issue was discussed during the panel “Logistics and Infrastructure: Connections Linking Ports, Railways and Chinese Investment in Brazil” at the Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026 on Wednesday (25) in Shanghai. The event is organized by Valor Econômico in association with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri) and the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC). The panel was moderated by Valor Executive Editor Zínia Baeta.

“The biggest barrier in Brazil is the legal and tax environment, which is highly fragmented,” said Li Sisheng, executive vice president of Power China International. In his view, that helps explain why some foreign companies have struggled with investments in the country. He noted, however, that the company has $4 billion invested in Brazil and is studying projects in highways, railways, and energy.

Leonardo Ribeiro, rail transport secretary at Brazil’s Transport Ministry, said the government wants to raise railways’ share of the country’s transport matrix from 20% to 35%. According to Ribeiro, Brazil’s Railway Legal Framework now provides laws, regulations, and standardized contracts that ensure legal certainty for investment in the sector. “We also have strategies to provide guarantees so these projects can move forward under a risk-sharing structure in which the government will share with the private sector any extreme situations.”

Ding Songbing, general manager and head of strategy and research at Shanghai International Port, said there is ample room for the development and modernization of Brazilian ports.

“Ships are getting larger, and ports need to adapt,” he said. In his view, climate adaptation as well as automation and digitalization of processes are two other areas with strong potential.

Zhang Jianyu, deputy secretary-general and chief development director of the Belt and Road International Green Development Alliance, said China and Chinese stock exchanges have been tightening environmental requirements for companies, and those rules also apply to their operations abroad. “If a Chinese company does not have good sustainability results in the Brazilian market, for example, it will face difficulties raising capital here in China.”

The “Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026” is the third event of its kind organized by the newspaper in China since 2024. This edition is sponsored by BYD, the Rio city government through Invest.Rio, Embratur, the Rio de Janeiro state government, and ApexBrasil, with support from the São Paulo city government and São Paulo Negócios, Suzano, CBMM, Alibaba, the World Resources Institute, the Climate and Society Institute (iCS), CNA Senar, and the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).

The newspaper does not cover expenses when public officials invited to take part in the discussions attend the event.

  • By Asdrúbal Figueiró  — São Paulo
  • Source: Valor International
  • https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Yardeni sees global stocks falling as much as 15% if war drags on

Yardeni Research chief says prolonged conflict could trigger deeper selloff, though he still finds opportunities in Brazil and other emerging markets

 

 

Despite risk aversion in global markets caused by the war in the Middle East, New York stocks have shown resilience and are still trading close to their record highs.

Still, economist Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, believes the conflict is unlikely to end anytime soon and sees the possibility of a further correction of as much as 15% in global stock markets, especially in economies more dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf region.

“My concern is that the conflict lasts longer than the market expects,” he said in an interview with Valor. “It may be difficult to achieve a quick resolution to the conflict. Iran has lost significant ground in recent weeks, but may not fully recognize that, and conflicts involving non-state or asymmetric actors rarely end quickly, tending to drag on for extended periods,” said the economist, who previously worked at Deutsche Bank and Prudential Financial.

In his view, even if Israel and the United States have succeeded in eliminating leaders, “that does not mean the philosophy of the Iranian regime will disappear.” Yardeni sees a 10% to 15% correction in the global stock market as likely, especially in countries more dependent on Middle Eastern oil, such as South Korea, Japan, and China.

Against the broader market view, Yardeni believes the dollar should continue to strengthen. After a sharp depreciation last year, the consensus among investors for this year had been that the currency would remain on a downward path. But the dollar has risen firmly since the start of the war with Iran. “This conflict is also reminding investors that, in times of uncertainty, the main safe haven is still the United States and the dollar.”

Despite U.S. dominance, Yardeni also sees good opportunities in emerging markets such as Brazil. Late last year, he changed his recommendation on emerging markets to overweight, the equivalent of a buy rating. With the start of the war, the environment changed.

Still, once the conflict ends, he believes emerging markets have the potential to perform well. “There is no urgency to get in immediately, however, since valuations may become even more attractive if the war persists.”

Market relief

On Monday (23), U.S. President Donald Trump announced a five-day delay in attacks on Iranian plants and energy infrastructure, citing “productive talks” with officials from the Islamic Republic, which triggered a positive market reaction, though Tehran denied it.

Yardeni believes the possibility of negotiations is a good sign, but said the economic outlook remains uncertain. “Negotiating does not always get you where you want to go. It is still not clear where this is heading.”

New York stocks have proved resilient to the deterioration in investor sentiment. At its low for the year so far, the S&P 500 was down 4.96% from its all-time high, reached on January 27, when the index closed at 6,978.60 points.

Even so, Yardeni said it is “realistic” to expect a deeper correction. “We also need to consider the risks of a global recession and a global bear market, which have increased significantly over the past week,” he said.

So far, market participants’ concern has centered on inflationary pressures from higher oil prices. Yardeni,, however, also pointed to the possibility that this scenario could weigh on U.S. economic growth, something that, in his view, will leave the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.

“The Fed probably will not be able to cut rates, because that could intensify the inflationary effects of the oil shock,” he said. “We have a classic problem: higher inflation and weaker growth at the same time, putting the Fed in an extremely difficult position. At some point, the Fed will have to recognize that there are limits to what monetary policy can do, and that the outcome will depend more on how the conflict evolves.”

Yardeni stressed that there is still no clear prospect of negotiations or a ceasefire and believes Trump’s stance has often been contradictory, helping to deepen the sense of uncertainty. “He has been consistent in calling for unconditional surrender, something the Iranian regime is unlikely to accept,” he said.

In line with the consensus view among market participants, Yardeni expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged for at least the next seven months, avoiding classifying the inflationary shock as “transitory” in light of the uncertainty. “Rates are still high enough to slow the economy, especially with oil prices rising. I also think productivity is coming back, which could be an important disinflationary force in the coming years,” he said.

Yardeni also rules out the possibility of monetary tightening unless the war lasts longer than expected and oil prices remain at very high levels.

“Warsh will probably be frustrated. If he is confirmed by the Senate, he will take office in an environment of higher inflation,” Yardeni said, referring to Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to lead the Fed. “In that context, it will be difficult to persuade other members to cut rates. Most will probably prefer not to act, recognizing the limits of monetary policy. Warsh will probably have to moderate his stance even further.”

Yardeni believes that if higher energy prices, and therefore higher inflation, end up weighing on consumers, market participants may revise corporate earnings forecasts downward, hurting stock-market performance. “We have had oil shocks in the past that led to stagflation, bear markets, and even a lost decade for the U.S. market. We should not be naive in thinking that cannot happen again,” he said.

Even so, for now he is maintaining his year-end target of 7,700 points for the S&P 500. “We have had similar crises in the past that turned into buying opportunities,” he said. “At the same time, it is conceivable that we could see a sell-off. It will be a very volatile market until the war is completely over, and we may be surprised.”

*By Luana Reis — São Paulo

Sosurce: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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The present and future of the Brazil-China relationship

Valor brings together officials and business leaders in Shanghai to discuss business prospects

 

 

Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026 in Shanghai: present and future of economic relations between Brazil and China will be in the spotlight — Foto: Pixabay
Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026 in Shanghai: present and future of economic relations between Brazil and China will be in the spotlight — Photo: Pixabay
 

The present and future of economic relations between Brazil and China will be in the spotlight from Wednesday (25) to Friday (27) in Shanghai and its metropolitan area. Officials, diplomats, business leaders, investors, academics and analysts from both countries will participate, on the first day of the event, in the “Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026,” promoted by Valor in association with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri) and the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC), to discuss opportunities in bilateral relations. Visits to Chinese companies’ operations will complete the program on the other two days, allowing an exchange of information and experiences on innovation.

Brazil’s largest trading partner for almost two decades, China’s business with Brazil has increased even further in recent years. Numbers from the Secretariat for Foreign Trade (Secex/Mdic) indicate that last year Brazilian shipments to China reached $99.9 billion, up 5.9% compared with 2024. Imports also had a stronger expansion (11.4%), totaling $70.9 billion. And for 2026, economists project a continuation of this trend. A study by the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC) indicates that the volume of Chinese investments in Brazil in 2024 totaled $77.5 billion, placing the Asian nation as the fifth largest foreign investor in the country.

Participants in the summit’s opening include Marcos Galvão, Brazilian ambassador to China; Marcos Caramuru, international advisor to Cebri and former Brazilian ambassador to China; Shen Xin, vice-president of CPAFFC; Chen Jing, vice-president of the Standing Committee of the Shanghai Municipal People’s Congress; Frederic Kachar, general director of Editora Globo and Sistema Globo de Rádio (SGR); and Maria Fernanda Delmas, editor-in-chief of Valor.

Next, eight panels will address the main economic connections between the two countries: “Brazil and China on the Global Chessboard: Strategies for a World with New Trade Relations,” “Brazil and China in the Global Leadership of the Energy Transition and Critical Minerals,” “Logistics and Infrastructure: Lines Connecting Ports, Rails and Chinese Investment in Brazil,” “Forging the Future: Health, AI and Emerging Sectors in Brazil-China Collaboration,” “Agribusiness – Food Security and the Next Growth Cycle of Brazilian Agriculture with China,” “Mobility of the Future: Chinese Industrial Plans in Brazil,” “Green Corridors: Developing the Low-Carbon Fuel Market in the Brazil-China Aviation and Maritime Transport” and “Paths to a Robust Finance Ecosystem.”

In the first panel, the debaters will be Izabella Teixeira, international advisory board member of Cebri and former minister of the environment; ambassador Marcos Galvão; Fang Li, chief representative of the Beijing Office of the World Resources Institute (WRI); Xu Tianqi, deputy director of the Department of Regional Studies at the Renmin University of China’s Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies; and Briza Bueno, general manager in Brazil of AliExpress.

The discussion on the role of critical minerals in the energy transition will feature Ricardo Lima, CEO of Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineração (CBMM); Jorge Arbache, professor of economics at the University of Brasília; Gu Haidong, vice-mayor of Suzhou; Han Zhao, senior investment executive at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); Marcelo Sampaio, executive director of legal and institutional affairs at Vale Minerals China; and Shelley Wang, head of the Brazil unit of Hexing Electrical.

Logistics and infrastructure issues will be discussed by panelists Leonardo Ribeiro, secretary of rail transport at Brazil’s Ministry of Transportation; Gao Liang, vice-president of the China Overseas Engineering Group; Li Sisheng, executive vice-president of Powerchina International; Ding Songbing, general manager and head of the Strategy and Research Department at Shanghai International Port; and Zhang Jianyu, deputy secretary-general and chief director of Development at the Belt and Road Alliance for Green Development.

The panel on health and artificial intelligence will include Igor Marchesini Ferreira, special advisor to the Ministry of Finance; Shirley Lu Han, specialist at the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products (CCCMHPIE); Felipe Daud, director of institutional relations for the Alibaba Group in Latin America; Leticia Frazão Leme, minister counselor at the Brazilian Embassy in Beijing; Chen Weijing, deputy director at the Hangzhou Municipal Commerce Agency; Zhou Yong, CMO of Hangzhou StarSpecies Robotics; and Hui Jingbo, marketing director at Hangzhou Zhizhen Technology.

The panel focused on agribusiness will bring together Pablo Machado, executive vice-president of business in China and strategy at Suzano; Kevin Chen, international dean at the Chinese Academy of Rural Development (CARD); Larry Lin, chief representative at Minerva’s office in China; André Guimarães, executive director at Ipam; Inty Mendoza, chief representative for China at CNA/Senar; and Tian Lei, president of the Tianjin Meat Producers Association.

The discussion on mobility and the automotive industry will include Sidney Levy, president of Invest.Rio; Victor Oliveira de Queiroz, general manager at the ApexBrasil office in Beijing; Priscila Sakalen, secretary of transportation and urban mobility of the State of Rio de Janeiro; Cui Hongbin (August), director of international energy systems’ projects for Latin America at CATL.

The panel on green fuels will feature Sergio Peres, professor at the University of Pernambuco (UPE); Larissa Wachholz, senior fellow at Cebri; Feng An, executive director at the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (iCET); Shen Wang, CEO of SafPac; Li Zhenglong, vice-director at Zhejiang University; and Xia Shubiao, manager of the R&D center for security technology at China Marine Bunker.

The summit’s closing will bring together, to discuss financing mechanisms, Ricardo Damiani, representative of Banco do Brasil in China; ambassador Marcos Caramuru; Lucas Reis, senior leader of climate finance at BNDES; Li Zhiqing, executive director of the Institute of Green Finance at Fudan University; Wu Changhua, representative of the Global Climate Academy; Liao Shuping, senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute; and Ruiming Song, special climate advisor at Century City Holdings.

The panels will be moderated by Fernanda Delmas; Zínia Baeta, executive editor of Valor; Lucas de Vitta, assistant editor at Valor; Maria Luiza Filgueiras, editor of Pipeline; Marli Olmos, special reporter for Valor; and Marcelo Ninio, correspondent for O Globo in Beijing.

In addition to the debates, which will take place at the Mandarin Oriental hotel, the program includes two days of visits to companies that have become prominent worldwide for the technological innovations introduced in their sectors of activity. At Alibaba, artificial intelligence and cloud environment solutions will be the focus; at JD (Jingdong Group, China’s largest retailer), logistics; at Fourier, robotics; at Envision, energy transition.

The “Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026” is the third event of its kind promoted by Valor in China since 2024. This edition is sponsored by BYD, the City of Rio de Janeiro through Invest.Rio, Embratur, the Government of the State of Rio de Janeiro, and ApexBrasil, with support from the City of São Paulo and São Paulo Negócios, Suzano, CBMM, Alibaba, the World Resources Institute, the Climate and Society Institute (iCS), CNA Senar, and the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). The panels will be broadcast on Valor’s website and social media. There will be English-language coverage on Valor International. The newspaper will not cover any expenses for public officials participating in the debates.

*By Valor — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Brazil weighs R$15bn package for sectors hit by tariffs and war

Credit line is part of broader effort to cushion impact on fuel prices and exposed industries

The government is preparing a provisional presidential decree to launch “Brazil Sovereign Plan 2,” and under the scenario now being considered, it is studying a R$15 billion credit line to support sectors affected by new U.S. tariffs and the war involving Iran.

Of that total, about R$10 billion could come from the Annual Budget Law, with another R$5 billion from the Export Guarantee Fund, using resources left over from the first phase of the program. The issue is still under discussion by government teams.

The debate is taking place amid a broader discussion within the government over a package of measures to mitigate the effects of the conflict, especially on fuel prices and the sectors most exposed. One alternative under review is to increase subsidies for diesel producers and importers through a new provisional presidential decree, or MP.

MP No. 1,340/2026 set a subsidy of R$0.32 per liter, with an estimated fiscal impact of R$10 billion for the federal government through extraordinary credit, an expense that falls outside the spending cap but is counted toward the primary balance target. If that option moves forward, the cost could rise through an increase in the subsidy amount via a new MP adjusting the current parameters.

Government officials believe there is enough revenue to fund this package of measures, especially given the increase in tax collection linked to higher Brent crude prices, without the need to declare a public calamity.

Teams have been monitoring developments on a daily basis in a scenario marked by high volatility abroad, amid the conflict in the Middle East, and its effects on the domestic market, in order to calibrate possible measures. Brazil Sovereign Plan 2 may be announced before the broader package or at the same time. The final decision will rest with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The government is also betting on reaching an agreement with state governors. As Valor reported last week, the states have reservations about the federal government’s proposal to cut to zero the state value-added tax on goods and services, or ICMS, on imported diesel and have begun discussing an alternative based on direct subsidies for importers. The issue was discussed on Friday (20) in a meeting between state finance secretaries and National Treasury Secretary Rogério Ceron.

Under that model, each state would grant the subsidy to the importer, with a partial reimbursement later made by the federal government, in a cost-sharing arrangement with half borne by the states and half by the federal government. The states agreed to draft a structured proposal along those lines, while the economic team agreed to formalize a compensation model.

The subsidy amount is still being studied by the states, but talks have included an estimated cost of R$2 billion a month for each side — states and federal government.

Subnational governments also raised the possibility of increasing federal compensation to 70% of the losses, but the Finance Ministry resisted the change, stressing the collaborative nature of the proposal.

* By Giordanna Neves  and Lu Aiko Otta, Valor — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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