CSN plans asset sales to cut debt by up to R$18bn

Steelmaker’s plan includes selling stake in infrastructure unit and control of cement in 202

 

 

01/20/2026

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) said on Wednesday (14) it plans to sell assets, including control of its cement business and a stake in the group’s infrastructure arm, to reduce leverage by between R$15 billion and R$18 billion. The plan was approved by the board of directors with the aim of definitively lowering the group’s debt level. The strategy calls for asset disposals starting in 2026, with the estimated proceeds equivalent to about half of current debt.

The initiative is part of a broader plan to reorganize the company’s capital structure and allow greater focus on businesses considered more profitable. Management expects that, with the execution of the strategy, CSN will be able to double EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) within eight years and reach leverage considered sustainable, at around 1 time the net debt/EBITDA ratio. The news moved the company’s shares, which closed the session down 3.12% at R$9.95.

Based on the maximum estimated value of the sales, the group’s leverage would fall from about 3.14 times to 1.83 time, according to pro forma projections.

According to chairman Benjamin Steinbruch, the decision marks the most relevant moment for the company to structurally address its leverage problem. “We don’t have bad companies, but we are living in an economic environment with stratospheric interest rates and competition from imported products, which undermines growth and investment,” he said.

According to the executive, despite expectations of price improvements and lower production costs, especially in iron ore, CSN chose to bring forward tougher decisions to strengthen its balance sheet. “We are going to solve CSN’s leverage once and for all. We have never committed ourselves in such an objective and pragmatic way for this to happen,” Steinbruch said.

Without providing many details, CFO and investor relations director Marco Rabello said the plan is to sell a minority but “relevant” stake in CSN Infraestrutura and seek the sale of control of CSN Cimentos. According to Rabello, asset disposals will be selective and focused on businesses that can unlock value quickly.

“We will make a relevant sale of a stake in CSN Infraestrutura still in 2026. In the short term, the plan for CSN Cimentos is to seek the sale of control in 2026,” he said.

There is no decision on whether the sale will be total or only a majority stake. For BTG analysts, when it comes to asset sales, as always, the plan will depend on future market conditions and valuation discussions, which could prove complicated.

For CSN Siderurgia, the company rules out a direct sale and is betting on forming strategic partnerships as a way to reduce debt. The energy arm will be kept in the portfolio, as it delivers returns with profitability above 30%.

The decision comes as CSN seeks to reinforce financial discipline amid a challenging environment for the steel sector, marked by price volatility, increased international competition and pressure on margins.

CSN Mineração will be excluded from the divestment package. CSN holds nearly a 70% stake and does not want to sell any portion to raise funds. The company ranks among the world’s seven largest iron ore exporters and, according to executives, the asset maintains high operational performance with margins above 40%.

For Artur Bontempo, principal iron ore and steel analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, CSN’s strategy involves a spin-off of the infrastructure area without losing control, using the sale of stakes as a deleveraging tool. The move allows debt reduction without giving up strategic assets and creates room to direct capital to higher-margin projects.

“The point is to make investments viable and expand mining’s access to capital to complete relevant projects. In steelmaking, the trend is for lower direct investment by CSN. Brazil’s steelmaking park is old and requires modernization, and these investments should come from strategic partners, especially Asian or European groups, bringing capital and technology,” he said.

The announcement did not necessarily take the market by surprise, as leverage has long been a known issue and the company has been moving to dispose of non-strategic assets. The first step was the sale of 11% of MRS to CMIN for R$3.35 billion in 2025.

*By Robson Rodrigues  — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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São Paulo Bar Association calls for Supreme Court code of conduct

Topic gained relevance with recent controversies involving decisions by justices on Banco Master case

 

 

 

 

 

01/19/2026

The mounting public pressure for the establishment of a code of conduct for Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court justices have reinforced the work of a group created by the Brazilian Bar Association in São Paulo (OAB-SP) to discuss the modernization of the country’s justice system. The Commission for Studies on Judicial Reform is about to finalize its discussions on ethics and integrity, with a view to strengthening the Justice system at a time when it is acquiring more prominence in Brazil.

The establishment of a code of conduct for justices of superior courts is a flagship policy of Chief Justice Edson Fachin, and has the support of the commission, formed by renowned experts and members of the OAB-SP. Among its prominent members are former chief justices Ellen Gracie and Cezar Peluso and former ministers of Justice José Eduardo Cardozo and Miguel Reale Junior.

According to the commission’s schedule, its proposals will be presented to the Supreme Court and the National Congress by the middle of the year. Issues such as term limits for ministers, rules for recusal and disqualification (when a magistrate abstains from judging a case), and monocratic (individual) decisions are also on the workgroup’s agenda.

After the recent controversies involving Supreme Court justices, the commission is shielded from any accusations of bias because it has been debating these issues since its creation in June 2025, according to the president of the OAB-SP, Leonardo Sica.

“Our work is isolated from these cases, precisely so as not to personalize or contaminate the debate. The outcry only proves that this is an urgent need. And we do not have a vision of antagonism or revenge against the court. On the contrary, [our work] is a defense [of the court]. We want to strengthen it, because we need a solid, independent and credible Judiciary,” Sica says.

In a speech at the launch of the commission, Peluso stressed the need to protect the Judiciary at a time when “criticisms that contribute to its disrepute” are intensifying. Along the same lines, Gracie said that the crisis “will not be resolved only with the judges,” nor “against the judges,” but rather with the participation of the whole society.

Sica understands that lawyers must also contribute to what he calls a “great effort to adjust ethical conduct” and observe limits to their actions. “Legal professionals must make the effort to submit to rules that are consistent with what we expect from the judiciary,” he argues.

The commission is collecting, until February, contributions from the more than 380,000 professionals registered with the OAB-SP on the functioning of the justice system. The form for submitting contributions, which will serve as the basis for the final document, asks lawyers about aspects such as the slowness of the judiciary, the way Supreme Court justices are chosen, and disrespect for consolidated jurisprudence in the higher courts.

“The path towards improving republican mechanisms of transparency and control of all branches of government, including the judiciary, is an inevitable and essential path for the development of democracy,” says Patrícia Vanzolini, former president of the OAB-SP and also a member of the commission.

Vanzolini downplays internal resistance in the courts to new rules, noting that there are also members making public statements of support, and says that “the establishment of a clearer and more rigorous code of conduct for the judiciary” is fundamental. In her view, “express support” from society for the cause is key for the debate to move forward “in a transparent way.”

In addition to the OAB-SP, organizations such as the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation are involved in the discussions. The organization linked to the former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso sent a proposal for a code of conduct to the Supreme Court in October, including provisions such as the disclosure of remuneration or benefits received for participation in external activities.

Some of the jurists who contributed to the foundation’s document are also members of the OAB-SP commission, such as Peluso, Cardozo and law professor Oscar Vilhena Vieira, from FGV Direito SP.

In parallel, a manifesto initially signed by economists, businessmen and intellectuals was launched in early December and later opened to the general public for signatures on the internet. By Friday (16), the document requesting the establishment of rules of conduct had gathered more than 14,000 signatures.

Reached by Valor, the Supreme Court did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

*By Joelmir Tavares — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Biofuels boom lifts agroindustry investments to R$60bn

Corn ethanol surge drove record infrastructure and industrial plans in 2025, a Valor survey show

 

 

01/19/2026 

Agribusiness and infrastructure projects announced in Brazil for 2025 totaled more than R$60 billion, according to an exclusive survey by Valor based on data from consulting firms, industry associations, and press releases. A wave of new corn ethanol plants accounted for a significant share of that figure.

Last year alone, investments announced in corn ethanol production capacity reached R$41 billion, according to a study by consultancy FG/A conducted for Valor.

These funds will be allocated to 44 projects that, if completed, will add 12 billion liters per year to Brazil’s ethanol production capacity. The largest investment was announced at the end of 2025 by Inpasa: R$3.5 billion for a new plant in Rondonópolis, in the state of Mato Grosso, and the expansion of its Nova Mutum facility, also in Mato Grosso.

The total investment pledged for corn ethanol in 2025 surpasses the R$30 billion invested in sugarcane ethanol projects between 2009 and 2012, according to a 2009 survey by Valor.

Willian Hernandes, partner at FG/A, said the corn ethanol boom is driven by the segment’s attractive profit margins and favorable financing conditions.

With Brazil’s abundant corn supply, the cost of producing ethanol from the grain has become more competitive than sugarcane-based ethanol, allowing the product to reach new markets. “It’s an opportunity to sell a higher value-added product [than corn], and the infrastructure is already in place,” said Felippe Serigatti, a professor at FGV Agro.

To navigate high interest rates, many of the announced investments were financed through the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) Climate Fund, which offers loans at around 8%. That was the case with São Martinho’s plant expansion in Boa Vista, Goiás state. Inpasa, Brazil’s leading corn ethanol producer, has funded its projects entirely with cash flow.

Another key driver for the surge in projects was the increase in the permitted blend of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline, enabled by Brazil’s Future Fuel Law. The law allows the government to raise the blend to as much as 35%, pending technical studies.

Biodiesel and soy

The biodiesel production chain also saw multi-billion reais in investment announcements in 2025, though on a smaller scale. Soy processors planned at least R$5.9 billion in investments through September 2026, according to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE).

These investments are focused on soybean crushing and oil refining and represent a 2.4% increase over the previous 12-month period.

In addition to ABIOVE’s tally, one of the highlights in 2025 was a R$1 billion investment announced by Frísia Cooperativa Agroindustrial, based in Carambeí, Paraná state. The plan includes a soybean crushing facility and warehouses in the states of Tocantins and Paraná, as well as expansions in other business lines such as dairy, pork, seeds, and forestry.

Daniel Furlan Amaral, ABIOVE’s director of economics and regulatory affairs, said the investments are largely aimed at meeting domestic demand for soybean oil used in food and biofuel production.

“Without biodiesel, Brazil’s crushing capacity would likely be much smaller. Oil production has been the main lever for increasing soybean meal output, which has helped lower animal feed costs and encouraged both semi-confinement and full confinement in livestock farming,” he said.

Meatpackers announced at least R$1.54 billion in domestic investments last year, and an additional $1.06 billion abroad, according to Valor’s tally. Most of the capital will go toward expanding production lines at existing plants to meet rising global meat demand.

Another R$7.6 billion in investments covered other agribusiness segments, from dairy and coffee to fertilizers, seeds, and potato processing plants. Argentine agribusiness firm GDM alone pledged R$1 billion over five years, while Brazilian cooperative Coamo announced a R$3 billion investment in a new port terminal in Itapoá, in Santa Catarina state, slated to begin operations in 2030.

Serigatti, from FGV, said that despite Brazil’s benchmark interest rate being at 15%, which discourages investments, “in the long term, the fundamentals support agribusiness as one of the most investment-intensive sectors.” “Among the country’s major industries, it has been the most successful in integrating into global value chains. It benefits from both a strong domestic economy and favorable conditions in international markets,” he added.

Citibank analysts also see growing global demand for food, with Brazil standing out as one of the few regions with significant potential to expand agricultural output. According to the bank, investments are being driven by the expansion of grain acreage—particularly through pastureland conversion—and the growth of biofuel production.

However, Citi forecasts a potential decline in agribusiness investments in 2026. “That’s due to the current challenging environment, marked by high leverage, elevated base rates, tight credit, and squeezed margins for producers. We believe most companies will prioritize resilience and debt reduction over the next year,” said Citi analysts Gabriel Barra and Renata Cabral.

*By Camila Souza Ramos, Nayara Figueiredo and Cibelle Bouças — São Paulo and Belo Horizonte

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Açotubo prepares corporate reorganization, aims for US market

Consolidation of distribution operations creates a company with R$600m in share capital and more than R$1bn in assets

 

 

 

01/12/2026 

The steel distributor Açotubo is preparing a corporate reorganization to unify the group’s business taxpayer IDs, currently concentrated primarily in Açotubo and Artex. The reorganization, which involves a shareholders’ agreement, will result in a share capital of about R$600 million in the companies linked to distribution, in addition to assets exceeding R$1 billion, the company’s CEO, Bruno Bassi, said in an interview with Valor.

The group’s remaining industrial companies have combined assets of more than R$500 million. At the same time, the company is advancing its plans to enter the American market, a move that is part of its strategy to improve efficiency, expand internationally, and enhance transparency for customers and investors.

Despite the reorganization, the shareholding structure remains practically unchanged. The company remains family-owned and privately held, with a board of directors comprising the three founders and two independent members.

“What we are doing is a reorganization to capture synergies, reduce redundancy, and provide more clarity for the market and customers,” said Bassi. With the restructuring, Artex ceases to exist as a brand, and all operations will be conducted under the name Açotubo Soluções em Aço, reinforcing the group’s integrated vision.

Today, about 80% of the group’s revenue comes from steel distribution, an activity traditionally associated with the Açotubo brand. The remainder is concentrated in the industrial arm, grouped under Incotep, and includes a joint venture with Vallourec focused on the production of profiled tubes and parts.

According to Bassi, the reorganization seeks to align these fronts. “It is necessary to look at the customer in a holistic way,” he said. The expectation is that, depending on the product line, integration could increase revenue by up to 10%, although the financial impact is still being evaluated.

In terms of performance, the company expects to close 2025 with results similar to those of 2024, with gross revenue close to R$2 billion. This growth has been sustained primarily through international expansion, as margins in the Brazilian market have tightened.

As part of its move into new markets, Açotubo recently incorporated a company with operations in Peru and Colombia, formerly known as SPG, thereby expanding its presence in Latin America. Another important strategic move is to expand internationally beyond South America. The company has been studying entry into the United States market for more than a year and a half—a plan that predates US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise steel import tariffs to 50%.

“The idea is not to export from Brazil to the US, because that wouldn’t leave a margin. We want to act as a local distributor,” explains Bassi. According to him, the strategy involves acquiring an established company in the country. “We imagine that in a short time we will acquire a company. Plan B is to do a greenfield [investment], [building] an operation from scratch,” he said.

Bassi acknowledges that the entry of imported steel is a growing concern in [Brazil’s] steel sector, including for distributors. Although the company makes occasional imports when it cannot find a certain product on the national market, he warns of the effects of subsidized steel.

“Cheaper imported steel is important for the industry, but the subsidy makes the product up to 30% cheaper, which corrodes the national industry,” he says.

On this point, Bassi’s view aligns with the sector’s view that the Brazilian government should implement trade defense measures, particularly for Chinese steel. He also acknowledges that buying from national producers implies paying a premium over the international price, which puts pressure on margins. “We were pressured by margins. There is a lot of imported material coming in, but we have an important partnership with national mills.”

The expectation is for improvement in 2026. Bassi projects average growth of up to 8% for Açotubo, with emphasis on clients in the paper and pulp, mechanical and metal, automotive, and agricultural machinery sectors, among others.

The company’s investment plan remains stable, with approximately R$30 million allocated. In 2026, one focus will be fleet renewal—the goal is to replace one-third of the trucks, totaling about 50 vehicles.

The corporate reorganization of Açotubo is also part of a broader context of diversification of the group, which today operates in four major areas: Açotubo itself, Trialle (an industrial and logistics warehouse developer), Tirreno Finanças (a financial arm and investment fund) and Firenze, an insurance brokerage, the group’s most recent business.

*By Robson Rodrigues — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Investigation examines alleged ties between Lula’s son and fraud scheme

President Lula’s son is indirectly cited in a phase of a federal investigation

 

 

 

 

01/09/2026 

Brazil’s Federal Police, an agency similar to the FBI, is investigating allegations that Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, the son of President Lula, may have acted as a “hidden partner” of businessman Antônio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as the “Bald of the INSS.” The information was first reported by O Estado de S. Paulo and confirmed by Valor.

The name of the president’s son was indirectly cited in December during one phase of Operation No Deduction, which is investigating an alleged fraud scheme involving unauthorized discounts applied to benefits paid to retirees and pensioners by the National Institute of Social Security (INSS).

The Federal Police informed Justice André Mendonça of the Federal Supreme Court that it is examining the alleged involvement of Lula’s son. One reference to him appears in testimony given to the Federal Police by businessman Edson Claro, who is linked to Antunes.

Fábio Luís Lula da Silva has not hired legal counsel specifically for the case, as he is not formally under investigation. Marco Aurélio de Carvalho, a lawyer who represents him in other matters, denies any wrongdoing and said he learned of the citation through the press, which he described as “serious.”

“There was no prior communication. I found out through the press, which is very serious,” Carvalho said. “It suggests that methods used during Operation Car Wash are being repeated. He is not accused and has no direct or indirect connection to the facts.”

“He has neither hired nor intends to hire a lawyer for this case. He denies any link to the “Bald of the INSS” and remains completely calm,” Carvalho added. “He was also not surprised by the attempt to implicate him. This is yet another effort to wear him and his family down. What is truly serious is the leak of information from a confidential investigation. We will request that the managing director of the Federal Police investigate these leaks.”

In December, after his son’s name surfaced, President Lula said that any involvement in the alleged INSS fraud scheme would be thoroughly investigated.

“If my son is involved in INSS fraud, he will be investigated. If Fernando Haddad is involved in INSS fraud, he will be investigated,” the president said at the time. “As far as the presidency is concerned, everything will be done to show Brazil that INSS fraud will be dealt with seriously.”

*By Tiago Angelo and Isadora Peron — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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New US guidelines favor shipments from Brazil

American government announced a policy to encourage the consumption of animal proteins, to the detriment of ultra-processed foods

 

 

 

01/09/2026 

The United States government announced on Wednesday (January 7) a set of new dietary guidelines for American citizens, valid until 2030, that encourage the consumption of “real food.” The idea, according to the government, is to increase consumption of proteins and whole foods, at the expense of ultra-processed foods, which could benefit sales of Brazilian beef to the US.

Brazil is the main supplier of beef to the American market, which is experiencing a strong decline in cattle supply. This situation, coupled with the announcement of the new dietary guidelines, could open up more space for giants like JBS and MBRF, owner of the American company National Beef.

“American households must prioritize diets built on whole, nutrient-dense foods—protein, dairy, vegetables, fruits, healthy fats, and whole grains—and drastically reduce their consumption of ultra-processed foods,” said US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a statement about the new guidelines. “Our government declares war on added sugar,” he said. The recommendation is that animal protein should be consumed at every meal.

Valor has learned that the initial assessment of Brazilian meatpackers is that the measure will, in fact, stimulate meat consumption in the US. This should boost Brazilian exports, which were already at a record high in 2025.

Lygia Pimentel, director of the consulting firm Agrifatto, noted that it is not yet possible to determine the guidelines’ effective impact on Brazilian exporters, but she added, “it is certainly positive marketing to reinforce meat consumption.”

“The US has been at its lowest [beef] production-to-consumption ratio in the domestic market since 2005, so they need to continue sourcing [meat] from abroad. And Brazil comes in as an important partner,” she said.

For Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, the new guidelines helped boost JBS NV’s shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The company’s shares closed up 1.25% on Thursday.

“The tendency is for Americans to prioritize protein,” said Cruz. He believes another factor that has helped increase demand—and, consequently, sales for companies in the animal protein segment—is the popularization of diets and weight-loss drugs.

According to the US Department of Health, the country is facing a crisis that justifies efforts to promote whole foods. Almost 90% of the country’s health spending is allocated to treating chronic diseases, many linked to diet and lifestyle. More than 70% of American adults are overweight or obese, and almost one in three teenagers has prediabetes.

In addition to potential benefits for Brazilian exporters, the new guidelines pleased American agribusiness. “At long last, we are realigning our food system to support American farmers, ranchers, and companies that grow and produce real food,” said the Secretary of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brooke Rollins.

Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau, emphasized that the measures reaffirm the importance of rural producers.

*By Rafael Walendorff and Nayara Figueiredo — São Paulo and Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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U.S. court recognizes Banco Master liquidation, freezes assets

Ruling triggers automatic blocking of assets held in the U.S. by Daniel Vorcaro’s bank

 

 

01/09/2026

Judge Scott M. Grossman of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Florida on Thursday (8) recognized the liquidation proceedings of Banco Master in the United States, despite objections raised by the defense of its owner, Daniel Vorcaro. As a result, the group’s assets in the U.S. are automatically frozen.

“The Brazilian liquidation proceeding shall be given full force and effect and be binding on and enforceable in the United States against all persons and entities,” the ruling states. The decision was issued a day after a hearing attended by Vorcaro’s defense team and lawyers for EFB Regimes Especiais de Empresas, the court-appointed liquidator designated by Brazil’s Central Bank.

Vorcaro’s attorneys had asked the U.S. court not to recognize the bank’s liquidation, as requested by the liquidator. In their arguments, they cited an inspection ordered by a justice of Brazil’s public spending watchdog, the TCU, and claimed there was a possibility that the liquidation could be reversed.

Information about the defense’s petition was first reported by O Globo newspaper and confirmed by Valor. According to documents reviewed by the newspaper, the law firm King & Ruiz, which represents Vorcaro, argued that Banco Master’s liquidation is a “controversial” matter in Brazil. “Although liquidation may be inevitable in some cases, it is far from clear that liquidation is inevitable for Banco Master,” the filing said.

The defense team maintained that recognizing the liquidation at this stage would be “premature” and argued that, although the liquidator states that all of his actions are ultimately subject to “judicial review,” this does not prove that the case is in fact being reviewed by a “foreign court,” as required under U.S. law.

Vorcaro also argued that the liquidator is seeking excessive powers over Banco Master’s assets in the United States. “The exercise of these powers could irreversibly and adversely affect Banco Master’s assets in the United States,” the defense team said.

In its rebuttal, EFB stated that Banco Master’s liquidation stems from the discovery of an “enormous fraud” and followed a series of failed attempts to sell control of the group. The filing, prepared by the law firm Sequor Law, also noted that the Central Bank’s investigations triggered a wave of coverage in domestic and international media outlets, “which began to associate Mr. Vorcaro’s life of luxury and extravagance, including the acquisition of properties and assets in foreign jurisdictions, with potential frauds committed to the detriment of [Master’s] account holders and investors.”

The liquidator’s attorneys said Vorcaro is suspected of having transferred large sums to himself at the expense of Banco Master’s creditors and investors, and that he was released from jail only on the condition that he wear an electronic ankle monitor.

Addressing Vorcaro’s claim that the liquidation could be reversed, the liquidator’s lawyers said that “there are no pending decisions that in any way alter the status, pendency, or validity of the Brazilian liquidation proceeding.” “As indicated above, no decision in the TCU proceeding suggests that the liquidation will be reversed or seeks to affect the validity or pendency of the Brazilian liquidation process,” they added.

*By Álvaro Campos, Valor — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Brazilian issuers ready $10bn wave of overseas bonds

Investment expect another strong year for dollar-denominated debt issuance following market’s recovery in 2025, when fundraising reached about $34bn

 

 

 

01/09/2026 

After a brief setback in the international bond market for Brazilian issuers, as investors became more cautious following concerns involving Ambipar and Braskem, companies from the country are expected to resume the pace of dollar fundraising in early 2026. Expectations are that the first issuance window of the year, between January and February, could total up to $10bn, with around ten companies on the list of potential offerings.

If confirmed, the volume would match the same period in 2025, which was already very strong, marked by the return of large issuers to the external market.

The start of the year is expected to be the most favorable period of 2026. Many companies are likely to bring forward their fundraising plans to avoid getting too close to Brazil’s presidential elections. Issuers, however, are keeping an eye on possible developments stemming from the U.S. operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the arrest of Nicolás Maduro. So far, the event has not had significant negative effects on the secondary market for Brazilian bonds. The risk of spillover, however, is not negligible, according to some asset managers.

Despite the electoral calendar, the view among investment bankers is that this will be another strong year for dollar-denominated debt issuance following the market recovery in 2025, when fundraising reached about $34bn.

Gustavo Siqueira, co-head of capital markets and fixed income for Latin America at Morgan Stanley, says he believes that more than the elections themselves, the factor that will dictate the pace of transactions will be the domestic market, which has been growing and has led many companies to concentrate their issuance locally. “On the map, we have to put the local market, because depending on how the dynamics are here, more companies may look abroad,” he says.

For January and February, Siqueira projects between $7bn and $10bn raised, with around ten transactions. He believes Brazilian offerings could reach around $30bn for the year, marking a new positive cycle.

For Miguel Diaz, head of external fixed income at Santander Brasil, “the macro environment outside the country tends to outweigh the domestic macroeconomic scenario” in issuers’ decision-making. “If there is ample liquidity and greater clarity around monetary policy abroad, that should outweigh Brazilian political uncertainties,” he says.

In Diaz’s view, as in several moments last year, issuance decisions will be taken at the last minute. “In 2025 we saw companies doing behind-the-scenes work with investors, and decisions were made very close to the offering,” he says. According to him, since early December companies have resumed contact with investors, but without finalizing transactions.

Part of this behavior is explained by the fact that other issues are currently on chief financial officers’ radar, such as dividend taxation, says the Santander executive. “What we expect is that at the turn of the year they will move toward fundraising,” he adds.

Diaz expects offerings to gain traction from February onward, as fourth-quarter financial results are released.

Joel Schimchak, who heads fixed income at Goldman Sachs in Brazil, says election-related volatility should emerge only in the second half of the year and that stability in US Treasuries will keep the market open to Brazilian issuers. According to him, companies are likely to prefer issuing in the first half to secure market access and navigate the electoral period more smoothly.

A Bank of America (BofA) study shows that in non-election years, 40% of transactions are concentrated in the second half. In election years, however, that share drops to 20%, says Caio de Luca Simões, head of fixed income at the bank. “There is a perception that the earlier, the better, because the issuer can avoid some volatility and drink cleaner water.”

The main point of attention, according to Schimchak, will be geopolitical events. Investors will also continue to monitor more highly leveraged companies. Siqueira, of Morgan Stanley, does not believe recent credit events will be strong enough to contaminate other transactions, but investor caution will lead to more detailed due diligence, especially for companies seeking access to the international fixed-income market for the first time.

Simões also says he does not believe in the possibility of contagion. According to him, the current moment is one of credibility with investors, despite isolated events. “There was no credit crisis with companies going bankrupt, for example, because of interest rate levels. These were governance issues and problems in specific industries,” he says.

Last year saw intense activity for banks involved in overseas issuance. After calmer years, issuance volume reached $34bn across more than 40 transactions, 59% higher than in 2024.

The Treasury issued more than $10bn in external debt securities, becoming one of the most active issuers of the year. The federal government accessed the market four times in 2025. The most recent offering took place in November, amid COP 30 in Belém. On that occasion, new green bonds were issued, the Global 2033 Sustainable, and the current 10-year benchmark, the Global 2025, was reopened.

JBS, Bradesco, Embraer, FS Bio, Vale and Raízen also raised funds more than once last year.

The largest transaction was by JBS. In June, the food producer raised $3.5bn. Demand reached $16.7bn, nearly five times the offering size, according to sources. Beyond the volume, the deal set other milestones: in one of the 30-year tranches, the yield reached the lowest level ever recorded for Brazilian issuances with the same maturity. In another, the bond was issued with the longest maturity ever for a Brazilian company—40 years. According to investment banks, such maturities are typically seen only in deals by US companies.

The year also saw debut issuers. In November, Eldorado Brasil raised $500m in the last external issuance by a Brazilian company in 2025. In September, car rental company Vamos made its debut with a $300m transaction.

*By Fernanda Guimarães and Rita Azevedo — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Venezuela makes up only 0.24% of Brazilian trade

Collapse of country’s economy reduced importance of bilateral trade since 2013

 

 

 

 

01/07/2026 

Venezuela’s share of Brazilian exports, which came close to 3% in 2007, fell to just 0.24% in 2025, according to foreign trade statistics from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

The loss of relevance is also seen in Brazilian imports from the neighboring country, which declined from 3.86% in 2007 to 0.12% in 2025.

In absolute terms, Brazilian exports to Venezuela stood at nearly $5 billion a year between 2011 and 2014, a level also close to that recorded in 2007 and 2008. Since 2013, however, there has been a sharp slowdown.

Last year, Brazil’s exports to Venezuela totaled less than $1 billion ($838.2 million), something that had not occurred since 2020. The figure represents a drop of nearly 30% compared with 2024. On the import side, the value fell 17.3% over the same comparison period, to $349.1 million.

The decline in bilateral trade follows the weakening of Venezuela’s economy, specialists say.

In releasing the 2025 trade balance figures, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services stated that “trade with Venezuela experienced marked fluctuations between 1997 and 2025,” adding that “the country’s relative weight declined over time.”

Venezuela is currently only the 52nd-largest destination for Brazilian exports and the 61st-largest supplier of Brazilian imports. Its 0.24% share of Brazil’s exports in 2025 was far below that of the main South American countries.

Argentina leads the region with a 5.2% share and ranks third globally, behind only China (28.7%) and the U.S. (10.8%). Chile (2.1%) is second in South America, followed by Paraguay (1.2%), Uruguay and Colombia (both at 1%), and Peru (0.9%). Outside the region, Venezuela’s share of Brazilian exports is comparable to that of countries such as Israel (0.2%), Bulgaria (0.2%) and Australia (0.3%).

In Venezuela’s foreign trade environment, economic sanctions and the embargo on oil sales to the U.S. weigh heavily. The restrictions affect crude oil exports and the import of raw materials.

Oil production in Venezuela fell from more than 3 million barrels per day in 2000 to less than 1 million barrels per day in 2025.

“Bilateral trade between Brazil and Venezuela showed marked fluctuations between 1997 and 2025. The peak in exports was reached in 2008, when they exceeded $5.1 billion. Brazilian imports from Venezuela peaked in 2000, surpassing $1.3 billion,” the ministry said.

Significant reduction

The ministry’s assessment points to “a significant reduction in bilateral trade” starting in 2013, “culminating in historic lows between 2019 and 2020.” “Total trade, which had reached its highest level in 2013 (more than $6 billion), lost momentum in subsequent years,” the statement said.

The drop in Brazilian shipments mainly reflects Venezuela’s payment difficulties, according to Welber Barral, a partner at BMJ and former Foreign Trade secretary.

“Today, what Brazil exports is almost always paid for in cash and includes some intracompany transactions, which ends up limiting the scale of trade between the two countries,” he said.

Livio Ribeiro, an associate researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Ibre) and co-founder of consultancy BRCG, describes trade with Venezuela as “irrelevant” at present, after the losses suffered by the Venezuelan economy in recent years.

“In trade terms, the impact is extremely limited,” Ribeiro said.

The small scale of bilateral trade is also highlighted by Lia Valls, a professor at Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ) and an associate researcher at FGV Ibre. She believes the low figures suggest there will be no impact on Venezuela’s trade relations with Brazil or even with the rest of the world. “Venezuela’s trade with Brazil and with the world is very small. These are very low values,” she said.

According to the classification used in the ministry’s study, Venezuela’s share of Brazil’s total foreign trade remained “modest” for most of the period since 1997, when the historical series begins. The neighboring country’s share of Brazilian exports has remained below 0.4% since 2017.

The data indicate, according to MDIC, that “despite its historical relevance, Venezuela’s relative weight declined over time.”

The main product exported to Venezuela in 2025 was sugar, followed by food preparations such as flours, mayonnaise and beverage mixes, as well as corn, rice and automobiles, among others. On the import side, Brazil mainly purchased fertilizers, aluminum and methanol.

*By Lucianne Carneiro, Marta Watanabe and Giordanna Neves – Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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