05/06/2025

Prevent Senior’s network includes 13 hospitals, 4 emergency care units, and 29 clinics, mostly in São Paulo — Foto: Divulgação
Prevent Senior’s network includes 13 hospitals, 4 emergency care units, and 29 clinics, mostly in São Paulo — Photo: Divulgação

Health insurers MedSênior and Leve Saúde, both focused on Brazilians over 60, are in talks with investment funds to sell minority stakes. While both companies have been growing rapidly, they plan to allocate the funds differently.

MedSênior, which already has Singapore’s sovereign fund Temasek as a shareholder since 2022, is considering a secondary offering in which the founding family would reduce its stake but retain control. Leve Saúde, on the other hand, is negotiating a capital raise of between R$300 million and R$500 million to expand its network of clinics and hospitals, Valor has learned.

Most health insurers in Brazil avoid the over-60 population, citing high medical costs, which has led to a shortage of plans for this age group. Currently, 7.7 million Brazilians over 60 have health coverage—15% of the total market—but they account for one-third of all medical expenses, according to consulting firm Arquitetos da Saúde, using data from the national health regulator ANS.

Yet Prevent Senior, MedSênior, and Leve Saúde—Brazil’s three leading senior-focused insurers—are defying that trend. Their loss ratios (medical costs relative to revenue) are well below the industry average, which closed 2023 at 83.8%.

In 2024, MedSênior posted a loss ratio of 56.7%—the lowest in the sector. Leve Saúde was close behind at 56.78%. Prevent Senior, after peaking during the pandemic, ended 2023 with a ratio of 83.1%, which fell to 74.7% in March—closer to historical levels.

Prevent Senior came under fire during the pandemic over allegations ranging from promoting unproven COVID-19 treatments to negligent care. Some cases were dismissed due to lack of evidence, while one investigation by São Paulo’s public prosecutor is still ongoing. No convictions have been issued. “Prevent Senior has always denied any wrongdoing,” the company said.

Over the past two years, a wave of unilateral cancellations by other insurers has driven many new clients to Prevent Senior, disrupting the balance between supply and demand.

Rapid growth

Between 2018 and 2024, MedSênior’s revenue jumped from R$193.8 million to R$2.1 billion. Net income reached R$297 million last year—more than twice that of Prevent Senior, despite the latter generating around R$7 billion in revenue. Leve Saúde, founded in 2020, grew from R$2.3 million in revenue to R$383 million by 2024. The company is still posting losses, due to its smaller scale (81,000 clients) and limited operating history.

Founders Maely Coelho (MedSênior) and Ulisses Silva (Leve Saúde) argue that serving older adults can be profitable. They entered this underdeveloped segment in response to Brazil’s aging population, which is expected to increasingly demand healthcare services. In 2023, 15.6% of Brazilians were aged 65 or older. By 2070, that figure is projected to rise to 37.8%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Together, the three specialized insurers have about 850,000 members, including a small share of younger dependents. Their market share is still limited, considering the 7.7 million Brazilians over 60 with health plans.

Roughly half of those older members have employer-sponsored coverage, often retained after retirement from companies that allow former employees to keep their benefits. However, more employers are eliminating this option—even for retirees willing to pay out of pocket—creating an opening for insurers offering individual plans. These are scarce for all age groups and particularly rare for older adults.

Model focused on prevention

Prevent Senior, MedSênior, and Leve Saúde operate on a prevention-oriented model that emphasizes routine exams and chronic disease management—costs that are far lower than hospital stays or surgeries. In addition, services are offered through proprietary clinics and hospitals designed specifically for elderly care, which is more cost-efficient than outsourced provider networks.

Prevent Senior pioneered this model and remains the market leader, with nearly 600,000 clients—three times more than MedSênior. Its network includes 13 hospitals, 4 emergency care units, and 29 clinics, mostly in São Paulo. This year, the company plans to open two more hospitals, two new urgent care centers, and a clinic.

“Having an operation fully focused on this demographic makes a difference. These companies have deep expertise—their entire infrastructure and data systems are tailored for this audience. Industry data shows people over 60 account for 15% of the member base but 34% of medical costs. Yet these specialized players perform far better,” said Luiz Feitoza, a partner at Arquitetos da Saúde.

Most insurers struggle to maintain a dedicated division for older clients. Not surprisingly, sources say Prevent Senior received acquisition and merger offers from large insurers shortly before the pandemic.

Around the same time, investors were eyeing MedSênior, which ended up selling a 15% stake to Temasek in 2022. The capital raised—undisclosed—went to shareholders. This time, the new offering would again be secondary, and Temasek’s stake would not be diluted, people familiar with the matter said.

The Singaporean sovereign fund did not invest directly into the operation but opened doors for MedSênior’s expansion into new markets.

“We don’t need capital—we generate cash. But we’re a small operator from Espírito Santo, and it’s hard to break into São Paulo, for example. Once we say our partner is Temasek, everything changes. It gives us credibility. Temasek did a thorough due diligence process, which proves everything is in order,” Mr. Coelho said. “They’re a dream partner. They don’t interfere, they know we understand healthcare. They sit on the board and have helped us a lot with introductions,” he added.

MedSênior is now present in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, the Federal District (Brasília), Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and, more recently, Recife.

Founded during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Leve Saúde is also growing rapidly. Sources said its capital raise—between R$300 million and R$500 million—will fund hospital acquisitions in its core market of Rio de Janeiro and expansion to other regions of Brazil. The company currently operates 11 clinics, which serve as patients’ first point of care.

Leve also has clients in small and mid-sized business plans (PME), a segment MedSênior has only recently entered. One of Leve’s strategies is to attract clients from other Rio-based insurers such as Assim Saúde, which is reportedly in talks to be sold, and Golden Cross, which will be shut down by the ANS in mid-May and must transfer its clients to other providers.

MedSênior and Leve Saúde declined to comment on the planned transactions. Prevent Senior also did not comment on past merger and acquisition offers.

*By Beth Koike — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

 

 

 

05/06/2025

Economists surveyed in the Central Bank’s weekly Focus report now expect interest rates to end the year slightly lower—suggesting both a milder tightening cycle and an earlier start to rate cuts.

According to data released Monday by the Central Bank, the median forecast for the Selic rate at the end of 2025 fell from 15% to 14.75% per year.

While the revision is minor and unlikely to significantly impact the Central Bank’s inflation projections at this week’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) meeting, it could mark the beginning of a broader reassessment of the expected intensity of monetary tightening—a shift that may complicate the committee’s goal of gradually bringing inflation back to its 3% target.

Two main factors drove the lowered Selic projection. First, fewer economists now expect the benchmark rate—currently at 14.25%—to peak at 15% or more during this cycle.

The median forecast points to a 0.5 percentage point hike at this week’s Copom meeting, followed by a smaller 0.25 point increase in June. But a growing number of analysts believe the tightening will end at 14.75%.

This is reflected in the average forecast for the June meeting, which dipped from 15.06% to 14.91%. Broadly, about one-third of analysts now believe the cycle will stop short of the 15% mark. A separate survey by Valor indicates that just under half of respondents expect the Selic to remain below 15%.

A second Central Bank report—tracking the distribution of inflation expectations—also points to fading expectations of a more aggressive rate hike cycle. The share of analysts forecasting rates above 15% in 2025 dropped from 36.7% in March to 16.4% in April.

The second factor weighing on year-end Selic forecasts is a growing belief that rate cuts might begin before the end of the year.

According to the median projection, the Selic would hold steady at 15% through the COPOM meetings in July, September, and November—then fall by 0.25 percentage point in December. This was the main new element in this week’s Focus report.

Market expectations for the year-end Selic are significant because they feed into the Central Bank’s inflation forecasting models. Although the updated forecasts show lower rates than those used in the last Copom meeting, the difference is not dramatic.

Previously, economists expected the Central Bank to begin easing in January 2026, starting with a 0.25 percentage point cut, followed by another of the same size. The Focus survey now anticipates one 0.25-point cut in December, but leaves the pace of easing for 2026 unchanged—still notably cautious.

The Focus distribution map supports this trend. The share of analysts projecting year-end Selic rates of 14.25% or lower rose from 5.7% in February to 9.4% in March and 14.3% in April.

This downward shift in rate expectations doesn’t materially change the outlook for real interest rates, which are expected to remain tight.

The average Selic rate across the eight COPOM meetings in 2026 is projected at 13.31%, compared to an expected inflation rate of 4.51%. For December 2026, the Selic is forecast at 12%, versus an inflation estimate of 4% for 2027.

If inflation expectations remain stable, this implies a real interest rate between 8% and 9% through the end of 2026—a restrictive level consistent with efforts to bring inflation back to target. The neutral real rate is estimated between 5% and 7%, depending on analysts’ outlook.

Since the March meeting, COPOM has emphasized that maintaining a sufficiently tight rate for long enough is just as important as reaching that restrictive level in the first place.

To enforce this stance, the Central Bank will need to counteract the market’s natural tendency to price in early rate cuts.

The Focus survey is starting to reflect that tension, subtly adjusting expectations. While this week’s dip in Selic projections may not shift the broader monetary picture, it could mark the beginning of a trend that—if it gains momentum—may complicate the Central Bank’s efforts to hold the line on inflation.

*By Alex Ribeiro, Valor — São Paulo

Source: Valor Inernational

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

05/06/2025

The protectionist measures adopted by U.S. President Donald Trump are injecting instability into global trade, but they may also create new business opportunities for Brazil and other emerging markets. That’s the assessment of Maria Silvia Bastos Marques, former president of Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) and currently Secretary for Major Projects in the state of Rio de Janeiro, and José Márcio Camargo, chief economist at Genial Investimentos.

The two experts spoke on Monday (5) at a business forum hosted by the Rio de Janeiro Commercial Association (ACRJ), where they discussed the shifting global economic landscape under Mr. Trump’s second term in office. Since taking office in January, the U.S. president has imposed tariffs on numerous countries—including key allies such as Canada and Mexico—initiated a trade war with China, and undermined multilateral cooperation.

According to Ms. Marques, one certainty amid the current uncertainty is that “we’re heading into a period of major turbulence and a world quite different from the one we’ve become used to.”

“It feels like we’re living through a reversal of what happened after World War II,” she said. In the postwar era, the U.S. was one of the main proponents of strengthening multilateral ties—an approach now being openly challenged by Mr. Trump.

Ms. Marques views the Trump administration’s trade stance as part of a broader power struggle with China: “There’s a contest between the U.S. and China for global supremacy—over who leads in innovation, who calls the shots, and who holds the greatest military power.”

However, she believes the U.S. is coming out on the losing end: “The way this policy is being implemented—chaotically and without coordination—has major consequences not only for the U.S. but for the world,” she said. “The expectation is that the U.S. will face higher inflation and slower economic activity as a result of these trade barriers.”

Ms. Marques also noted that “the U.S. is facing a supply shock, while China is dealing with a demand shock. It’s always easier to stimulate demand than to increase supply.”

In her view, the current scenario presents opportunities for Brazil and other emerging markets—particularly if they deepen their international ties and seek out new trading partners. One such possibility, she suggested, is that the volatility caused by the trade war could accelerate negotiations on a long-pending trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union.

She also pointed to the potential benefits of a weaker U.S. dollar. “A depreciation of the dollar could help ease inflation in Brazil and create room for interest rate cuts—assuming there are no new credit or fiscal stimulus measures to boost demand,” she said. “Important opportunities could arise for Brazil, but only if we do our homework.”

Mr. Camargo, meanwhile, warned that the U.S.’s reindustrialization efforts could end up isolating its economy. “The American economy is likely to slow under the weight of these tariffs,” he said. “It’s really very difficult to reindustrialize an economy by using tariff controls.”

*By Camila Zarur  — Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

 

05/05/2025

Croplife Brasil—the organization representing biotech companies—along with the national associations of corn (Abramilho) and cotton (Abrapa) producers and the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) will seek to advance negotiations with Chinese authorities for a long-awaited agreement on the synchronized approval of genetically modified (GM) crops.

At least ten GM seed varieties already approved in Brazil have not been planted because they are still under review in China—a process that can take up to eight years. Since China is the primary buyer of Brazilian soybeans and a major importer of Brazilian corn, exporting products containing traits not approved in China could trigger trade barriers.

Eduardo Leão, executive director of Croplife Brasil, said the goal is to sign a memorandum of understanding that would align approval processes between the two countries and open the door for China to export its own biotechnology to Brazil. “We are optimistic, as the timing is favorable. China has been investing more in biotechnology and gene editing, and there’s growing interest in exporting this technology to Brazil,” he told Valor.

While the Brazilian delegation is in China, the biotechnology committee of the China-Brazil High-Level Commission for Consultation and Cooperation (Cosban) will meet to address the issue. Mr. Leão noted that President Lula’s presence in the country will help “boost” the sector’s outreach.

“The relationship with China has reached a level of maturity, transparency, and clarity among the negotiating teams that is unprecedented,” said Luis Rua, secretary of international relations at the Ministry of Agriculture. “This has enabled significant progress.”

The National Union of Corn Ethanol (Unem) will also host a seminar with Chinese importers to promote dried distillers grains (DDG), a high-protein byproduct of ethanol production used in animal feed. Market access for DDG is one of the key items on Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro’s agenda during talks with Chinese authorities.

“This is a very opportune moment for Brazil to position itself, as two global powers are hitting each other with tariffs,” said Guilherme Nolasco, president of Unem. “This opens opportunities, and we must be ready to play. Brazil is the reliable alternative for food and energy supply.” He noted that Brazil’s efforts to sell DDG and ethanol to China began before Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency.

Brazilian orange juice exporters, meanwhile, are pushing for a tariff adjustment that would provide greater predictability in trade relations with China and potentially encourage future Brazilian investments in the country.

Currently, there are two export tax rates for orange juice—7.5% and 20%—depending on the temperature at which the product arrives at Chinese ports. The industry is seeking to unify the tariff at 7.5%, even though this lower rate currently results in higher energy and logistics costs.

*By Rafael Walendorff, Globo Rural — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

05/05/2025

Amid the ongoing tariff war between the United States and China, Brazil is sending its largest-ever delegation of agribusiness executives to the Asian country this week. About 150 representatives from various segments of Brazilian agriculture will travel to China for a series of meetings focused on market access, export expansion, and sanitary and tariff-related issues.

China is already the largest buyer of Brazilian soybeans and meat. Now, other segments of the agribusiness sector are looking to increase their footprint in the country, capitalizing on the momentum generated by trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. At least nine sectors will be represented in the delegation: beef, poultry and pork, corn, corn ethanol and DDG, fruit, coffee, cotton, citrus, and biotechnology. In 2024, Brazilian exports to China neared $50 billion.

The agenda includes business events organized by national trade associations with Chinese importers, missions to inland provinces to attract new buyers and study consumer behavior, and even the inauguration of a joint office in Beijing for Brazilian exporters of poultry, pork, and beef.

President Lula is also scheduled to visit China on May 12–13 to attend the China-CELAC Forum, and is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro and Silvia Massruhá, head of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), will also be part of the official entourage.

The scale of the Brazilian delegation is the result of several converging factors. Some organizations had scheduled their visits in advance, while others joined the initiative after the government confirmed President Lula’s trip, viewing the escalating tariffs between the U.S. and China as a strategic opening. Some executives had already planned to attend Sial China, the country’s largest food trade fair, taking place in Shanghai from May 19 to 21.

Both public and private stakeholders view this moment as a timely opportunity to strengthen ties with China and increase Brazil’s commercial presence there. “The massive presence of agribusiness leaders in China symbolizes this window of opportunity,” said Luis Rua, secretary of trade and international relations at the Ministry of Agriculture.

“It’s now clear that the reciprocal tariffs make U.S. products unviable in the Chinese market. Brazilian sectors see this as the right time to deepen relations and seize the chance to introduce new products,” Mr. Rua told Valor. “The trade war gives a boost to sectors that may not have been as well organized to operate in China. It’s important for Brazil to show that we’re a partner ready to engage when needed.”

The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC) and the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) will open a permanent office in Beijing to solidify their presence. Beef producers aim to boost sales in inland Chinese cities, while poultry and pork processors are eyeing opportunities left by the U.S. absence.

In the fruit segment, the focus is on unlocking exports of melons and grapes, which are already authorized but have yet to gain significant market traction. The Brazilian Association of Fruit Producers and Exporters (Abrafrutas) is sending a 42-person delegation to better understand local preferences and market dynamics to negotiate more effectively with Chinese buyers.

“Properly positioning our product is essential to maintaining a long-term trade relationship. We’re fully capable of competing if we understand their needs and respond accordingly,” said Jorge de Souza, technical manager at Abrafrutas.

Though the mission was planned before Donald Trump returned to the White House, his renewed conflict with Beijing has become a “new factor” for Brazilian businesses. The U.S. is currently China’s top supplier of grapes, and Brazilian exporters are hoping to tap into the market during China’s winter months, from December to May, when local production is limited.

The coffee segment is also optimistic. Brazilian producers believe Chinese buyers are willing to pay a premium for Brazilian beans. Márcio Ferreira, president of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (CeCafé), will be in China for meetings with government officials and participation in trade fairs. “There will be many initiatives to strengthen ties and expand coffee trade,” he told Valor.

*By Rafael Walendorff, Isadora Camargo and Cleyton Vilarino, Globo Rural — Brasília and São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

The urgency to reduce carbon emissions to combat climate change has sparked a global race for minerals critical to the energy transition—one of the topics set to be discussed at COP30 in Belém. Brazil sees this movement as an opportunity to attract investment and boost its mining sector. The country holds some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals.

 

 

 

05/05/2025


CBMM unit in Araxá (MG): The company’s annual niobium production capacity exceeds current global demand — Foto: Divulgação
CBMM unit in Araxá (MG): The company’s annual niobium production capacity exceeds current global demand — Photo: Divulgação

According to the 2025 edition of the Mineral Commodity Summaries, a report by the US Geological Survey (USGS), Brazil advanced one position in the global rankings for rare earths and lithium in 2024, now occupying second and sixth place, respectively.

Marcelo Carvalho, executive director of the Australian mining company Meteoric, notes that of the 17 rare earth elements, four are essential for the production of magnets used in electric vehicle motors and wind turbines, making them critical to the energy transition.

“An electric car motor carries 1 to 2 kilograms of these rare earth magnets, while a wind turbine can carry up to two tonnes of this material,” he says.

Meteoric does not yet produce in Brazil but has a promising rare earth project in the Poços de Caldas region (MG).

“We have 1.1 billion tonnes of ore, which extends the project’s useful life to over 100 years,” Mr. Carvalho adds.

Lithium, indispensable for the manufacture of electric car batteries, requires 8.9 kilograms of the mineral per vehicle, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Brazilian company Sigma Lithium, located in the Jequitinhonha Valley (MG), accounts for almost all of the country’s lithium production. The fifth-largest producer in the world, Sigma Lithium produces 270,000 tonnes of green lithium per year and is building a second unit, which is expected to double its production capacity.

According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), more than 50 projects are underway across Brazil and are expected to reveal new reserves of strategic minerals in the coming years.

“At a time when decarbonization is urgent, mining is considered the driving force behind this movement, which is essential for the preservation of the planet, with the supply of strategic inputs,” says Silvia França, director of the Mineral Technology Center (Cetem).

In addition to advances in rare earths and lithium, Brazil leads the world in reserves and production of niobium, a mineral used across segments, including electrification, mobility, and steelmaking. The country holds 94.1% of the world’s known niobium deposits. It also ranks among the global leaders in graphite, nickel, and manganese—essential materials for batteries and energy storage.

CBMM, based in Araxá (MG), is the world’s largest producer of niobium, with a production capacity of 150,000 tonnes per year, exceeding current global market demand. The company invests R$250 million annually in its technology program. In 2024, in partnership with Toshiba Corporation and Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus, CBMM unveiled the first electric bus powered by a lithium-niobium battery.

“This milestone not only demonstrated the technological feasibility of the project but also positioned Brazil at the forefront of innovation, showing that the country can contribute to more sustainable energy solutions,” says CBMM CEO Ricardo Lima.

In steelmaking, niobium enhances the properties of steel, helping to reduce CO₂ emissions throughout the production process.

Vale also contributes to lowering CO₂ emissions in steel mills by supplying the industry with high-quality iron ore. In addition to being one of the world’s largest iron ore producers, Vale ranks as the sixth-largest nickel producer and the 11th-largest holder of copper reserves, both critical for the energy transition.

In 2024, Vale produced 160,000 tonnes of nickel and plans to increase annual production to between 210,000 and 250,000 tonnes by 2030. In copper, the company produced 348,000 tonnes in 2024 and is investing to boost output to 700,000 tonnes by 2035.

Part of Vale’s nickel and copper production is based in the Carajás region (PA), where its iron ore operations are also concentrated. The company plans to invest R$70 billion between 2025 and 2030 in the Novo Carajás program, which encompasses iron ore and copper projects.

“Novo Carajás has the potential to position Brazil as a global leader in the supply of critical minerals and reinforce its leading role in combating climate change,” said Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta.

According to the Energy Research Company (EPE), demand for critical minerals is expected to grow significantly by 2034, driven by the expansion of the electricity grid and the increasing electrification of vehicles. In EPE’s projections, demand for rare earths alone is expected to grow sixfold over the period.

Aware of the rising demand, Serra Verde Pesquisa e Mineração (SVPM), based in Minaçu (GO), is evaluating the possibility of doubling production before 2030 without shortening the useful life of its mine. The company began operations in January 2024 as the only producer outside Asia of the four critical rare earth elements: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

“This makes Serra Verde a strategic asset for Brazil and the global market,” says SVPM president and Serra Verde Group chief operating officer Ricardo Grossi.

The company expects to produce at least 5,000 tonnes of rare earth oxide annually over the next 25 years.

Despite the promising projects, Raul Jungmann, president of Ibram—which brings together mining companies—points out that for Brazil to move beyond its role as a commodity exporter, it must overcome regulatory hurdles.

The National Mining Agency (ANM) acknowledges that the long gap between the initiation of research and the start of production remains a major bottleneck in meeting the growing demand for critical minerals, with projects taking an average of nearly 20 years to complete the entire cycle and commence production.

In 2024, the ANM authorized 4,630 mineral research projects and granted ten exploration rights, all related to critical minerals. The agency also reported that at least ten initiatives are underway to simplify regulations and expand legal certainty in the granting and management of mining titles.

Along with cutting bureaucracy, the government aims to stimulate investment in critical minerals by expanding project financing. In 2024, the BNDES, in partnership with the MME and Vale, launched a R$1 billion Critical Minerals Fund to support strategic mineral research, development, and mine implementation, with a focus on junior and medium-sized companies. Investments from the fund are expected to begin in the second half of 2025.

In 2025, with the support of the MME and in partnership with Finep, the BNDES opened a public call with a budget of R$5 billion for the submission of business plans that include investments in production capacity as well as research, development, and innovation for the transformation of strategic minerals and the production of processed materials or manufactured products aimed at the energy transition and decarbonization.

The public call is open until April 30, with the selection results scheduled to be announced by June 12.

“All these actions focused on critical minerals are part of the new industrial policy. Nova Indústria Brasil has been paying close attention to the green agenda, which is one of its strategic pillars, and to the innovation agenda,” says José Luis Gordon, director of Productive Development, Innovation, and Foreign Trade at BNDES.

The MME also launched the Guide for Foreign Investors in Critical Minerals for Energy Transition in Brazil last year and is closely monitoring the progress of bill 2780/24, proposed by Representative Zé Silva (Solidariedade-MG), which aims to establish the National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals. The bill is awaiting the opinion of the rapporteur in the Economic Development Committee. After it is voted on, the proposal will still be reviewed by the Environment and Sustainable Development, Mines and Energy, Finance and Taxation, and Constitution, Justice, and Citizenship committees.

*By Daniela Canedo — Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

 

 

 

 

05/05/2025

Even as the global trade tensions triggered by the United States create a more favorable climate for ratifying the Mercosur-EU trade deal, the coming months will demand intense diplomatic efforts to get it across the finish line. Brazilian officials involved in the negotiations expect a challenging period ahead, marked by possible attempts from France, Poland, and Italy to block the agreement. A coordinated campaign against the deal is also anticipated this summer, along with potential last-minute resistance in the European Parliament. Still, the goal is to secure final approval before the end of the year.

President Lula is expected to step in once again to help steer the process to completion. There is no fixed timetable for ratification, but Brazilian authorities believe Mr. Lula’s direct involvement will be key.

“[U.S. President Donald] Trump is actually helping as Europe doesn’t have many alternatives but to strengthen existing or pending agreements,” said Jorge Viana, head of ApexBrasil, the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, which is linked to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

Mr. Viana recently joined other officials and business leaders on a diplomatic tour through Portugal, Poland, and Belgium. The final stop, Brussels, also serves as the political heart of the European Union.

Negotiated since 1999, the agreement was announced at the end of 2024 by Mercosur heads of state and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Once implemented, the deal will establish a free trade area encompassing 700 million people, with a combined GDP of $22 trillion.

Amid a rising tide of protectionism fueled by Mr. Trump’s tariff escalation, the deal has taken on greater urgency. In April, citing the impact of U.S. trade policy, the World Trade Organization downgraded its forecast for global trade flows in 2025, from a 2.7% increase to a 0.2% contraction. Officials from both the EU and Mercosur have since stepped up public messaging about the agreement’s strategic and economic importance.

But several steps remain before the deal takes effect. The current text is being translated into the EU’s 23 official languages, along with specific versions in Portuguese and Spanish for Mercosur.

The next phase involves approval by 65% of the European Council, which comprises heads of state. These votes must represent at least 55% of the EU population. The math is considered “complex” and “dynamic,” with no fixed threshold—Brazilian negotiators even use a smartphone app to monitor daily shifts in the vote count. An alignment among France, Poland, and Italy alone would be enough to block the agreement. France and Poland have repeatedly voiced strong public opposition, while Italy’s stance is viewed as ambiguous.

Securing neutrality from countries like Belgium is already seen as a diplomatic win by Brazilian officials.

The final hurdle will be a simple majority vote in the European Parliament, based on the number of members present during the session. That stage is expected to be the most difficult, as parliamentarians are often more susceptible to lobbying pressure than heads of state.

“We’ll need a major effort to win public opinion,” said Aloysio Nunes, former foreign minister and current head of strategic affairs for ApexBrasil in Europe.

According to Brazilian officials, President Lula’s personal involvement will be crucial in the final stages. Mr. Viana is among those who argue that the “revival of presidential diplomacy” since Mr. Lula returned to office in 2023 has strengthened Brazil’s global standing.

“The president’s engagement will be decisive in turning the tide,” said Mr. Viana, an ally of Mr. Lula who previously served two terms as governor of Acre and one as senator, all with the Workers’ Party (PT).

One potential boost to Brazil’s case came in May with the expected formal recognition by the World Organization for Animal Health that Brazil is free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination—a long-standing concern for European agricultural interests.

Brazil’s ambassador to the EU, Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva, predicts that the agreement will be “quietly approved.” “No one wants the [political] fallout,” he said.

While optimistic, Mr. Costa e Silva warned that by the end of the European summer, “every opponent” of the deal, particularly Europe’s farm lobby and NGOs, will be mounting a “relentless campaign,” requiring a “grueling” response from Brazil. “It will be intense,” he said.

In Brazil, approval is expected to proceed with fewer obstacles. Once passed by Brazil’s National Congress and sanctioned, the changes will immediately take effect for the country’s economy, without needing ratification from other Mercosur members.

“This global conflict ends up creating opportunities and negotiation windows that become vital for countries trying to protect themselves,” said Senator Nelsinho Trad, chair of the Senate’s Foreign Relations and National Defense Committee. “It’s not a matter of if—we have to get it done.”

The agreement is expected to be reviewed by the committees on Foreign Relations and National Defense, Constitution and Justice, and Economic Affairs, before going to the floor of both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

The reporter’s travel costs were covered by ApexBrasil.

*By Estevão Taiar — Brussels

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

05/02/2025

Gabriel Galípolo, chair of Brazil’s Central Bank, met on Thursday (1) with businessman Joesley Batista of J&F Investimentos, in what was his only scheduled appointment on the Labor Day holiday. The meeting, held from 3pm to 4pm, was also attended by Ailton Aquino, head of supervision, and Gilney Vivan, head of regulation. It was added to Mr. Galípolo’s official agenda the previous evening.

The Central Bank said only that the meeting addressed “institutional matters.” J&F declined to comment. However, five people familiar with the matter said the holding company’s interest lies in Banco Master. One source close to J&F said the company is preparing a bid for Credcesta and Master’s portfolio of court-ordered government debt (precatórios), possibly through its financial arms PicPay or Banco Original.

When asked whether Banco Master was discussed, Mr. Aquino did not deny it and said only that the meeting “was good.”

The proposal by Mr. Batista reportedly includes assets from the personal estate of Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro. Sources familiar with the talks said the deal could help partially cover Master’s liabilities that fall outside the scope of Brazil’s deposit insurance fund (FGC), including pension fund-held securities.

Credcesta is a payroll-deductible credit card for public servants that began in Bahia. It was acquired by Banco Master during Rui Costa’s term as governor and later expanded nationwide. If J&F moves forward, the acquisition would advance a long-standing goal to expand PicPay’s footprint in payroll loans—but it would directly clash with Banco de Brasília’s (BRB) own interest in the asset.

Master’s precatório portfolio, totaling R$8 billion on the bank’s 2024 balance sheet, could gain value if the Treasury begins repayments as scheduled in July. Payment order for these government debts—from municipalities, states, and the federal government—will be decided by various courts, from Brazil’s Regional Federal Courts to the Supreme Court, but mainly by the Superior Court of Justice (STJ).

BTG Pactual, led by André Esteves, also remains interested in Banco Master’s less-liquid assets, including precatórios, judicial credit rights, and equity stakes in companies, sources said. BTG could either purchase the assets outright or manage a fund holding them, helping to avoid a scenario where the FGC would have to cover Master’s certificates of deposit (CDBs).

One possibility under discussion is that the FGC could lend money to a fund capitalized with these assets. That fund, in turn, would manage Master’s liabilities, potentially allowing Mr. Vorcaro’s bank to repay CDBs gradually—or even ahead of schedule.

As previously reported by Valor, Brazil’s major private banks are involved in discussions about the parts of Banco Master not being acquired by BRB. However, in recent days, especially Itaú and Bradesco have reportedly shown reluctance to take direct stakes or accept arrangements that would overburden the FGC.

While the Central Bank gave no details about the meeting’s agenda, it said Mr. Galípolo’s engagement with Mr. Batista complied with the “quiet period” rules of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), which meets next week on May 6–7. None of the parties involved—the Central Bank, Master, J&F, or BRB—commented on the matter.

*By Maria Cristina Fernandes, Valor — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

05/02/2025

Fishers at the Middle Juruá Extractive Reserve in Amazonas state — Foto: Araquém Alcântara
Fishers at the Middle Juruá Extractive Reserve in Amazonas state — Photo: Araquém Alcântara

Big changes in the world are triggering a broad rearrangement of society and demanding solutions as innovative as the challenges created. Urgent and significant actions are critical to mitigating the impacts of the climate emergency, the world’s biggest threat now. This edition of Valor Econômico, which also commemorates its 25-year anniversary, brings a special report showing how Brazil, holding 60% of the Amazonian biome, can transition into a low-carbon economic model that protects biodiversity through bioeconomy.

Farmers and experts report on the many challenges of development based on sustainable use of the forest, and of promoting production chains connected with sociobiodiversity, as the image above shows. Captured by the lenses of photographer Araquém Alcântara, it records the day-to-day of fishers in the Middle Juruá Extractive Reserve in Amazonas state.

Socially, other stories translate to our readers the zeitgeist. Such issues as gay relationships, using frozen embryos, and digital asset inheritances have been demanding legislative changes.

Other transformations like religious conversions, entrepreneurial culture, and social media, meanwhile, are affecting political identification in Brazil.

This commemorative edition also offers a broad menu of special reports, including a one-week foray in Buenos Aires probing the actions of President Javier Milei, which have struck down inflation and pleased businesses but also triggered doubts about their social cost.

*By Daniela Chiaretti, Marli Olmos, Laura Ignacio and Cristiane Agostine  — Belém, Buenos Aires and São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

 

05/02/2025


Belém's  Ver-o-peso market is a celebration of the senses as it showcases the biodiversity wealth of the Amazon — Foto: Ricardo Lima/Getty Images
Belém’s Ver-o-peso market is a celebration of the senses as it showcases the biodiversity wealth of the Amazon — Photo: Ricardo Lima/Getty Images

The rosewood tree, native to the Amazon and reaching heights of up to 30 meters, is known for its striking elegance and intense fragrance. For decades, its oil was a prized ingredient in Chanel No. 5—Marilyn Monroe’s favorite fragrance. Once abundant across the region, rosewood became a cautionary tale of overexploitation: a rare natural asset nearly driven to extinction by its own value. This story reflects the tension at the heart of the Amazon’s “bioeconomy”—a term gaining prominence but rooted in practices as old as the forest itself.

In essence, the Amazon’s bioeconomy represents a model that prizes biodiversity over scale, and forest health over market dominance. It’s not about mass production, but about sustaining livelihoods, respecting traditional knowledge, and keeping the forest standing. Though now a buzzword in policy and industry circles, the concept is far from new for Amazonian communities like rubber tappers and other gatherers, quilombo communities of former escaped slaves, river dwellers, and fishers whose ancestral activities align with the biome but are invisible in national accounting.

“People say, ‘Let’s implement the bioeconomy in the Amazon.’ What do they mean? That’s what we’ve always done,” quips economist Francisco de Assis Costa, a professor at the Federal University of Pará’s Center for Advanced Amazonian Studies (NAEA). For climate scientist Carlos Nobre, it’s simply “an economy of standing forests and flowing rivers.”Agribusinesses frame the term broadly, grouping “bio” with industrial-scale agriculture of soybean, sugarcane, and eucalyptus trees, and such livestock as cattle and poultry.

Globally, the concept is equally fluid—Finland is a success story with its natural and planted spruces and pines, and biomass replacing fossil fuels—but Finland does not have the world’s largest tropical forest. “Bioeconomy is a ‘terroir’ economy—it values what is specific and unique,” says Mr. Costa. “It deals with diversity. It’s fundamentally different from the homogenizing approach of agricultural bioeconomy.”

Among the Amazon’s signature non-wood-harvesting products is the Brazil nut, gathered exclusively from native forests—never from plantations. Almost all the Brazil nuts consumed globally come from native forests, “collected from century-old or millennia-old trees, many possibly planted by indigenous people before Pedro Álvares Cabral’s arrival,” wrote Salo Coslovski, a researcher with Amazon 2030 and a professor at New York University, in an article. He estimates the international trade in nuts generates $350 million annually, with Bolivia leading at 74% of the market, followed by Peru. Brazil ranks third with 11%.

Cacao is another bioeconomy symbol, with significant production in Pará, at around 950 kilograms per hectare. In a recent study, Mr. Coslovsky identified 64 Amazon-based products exported between 2017 and 2019, including fish, fruits, and peppers. Together, they made up just 0.17% of a $176 billion global market—signaling ample room for growth.

Drop-shaped murumuru seeds can be turned into a butter highly prized for cosmetics — Foto: Oswaldo do Forte/Valor
Drop-shaped murumuru seeds can be turned into a butter highly prized for cosmetics — Photo: Oswaldo do Forte/Valor

A recent World Resources Institute (WRI) study shows that Pará could become the hub of the Amazon bioeconomy. If R$720 million were invested across 13 bioeconomy value chains—including açaí, Brazil nuts, rubber, native bee honey, cupuaçu, and copaíba—Pará’s GDP could grow by R$816 million, generate R$44 million in additional tax revenue, and create 6,600 jobs. Mr. Costa, affectionately known inside and outside the Amazon as “Chiquito,” developed methods to measure the sector. “I wanted to make it visible,” he says.

Pará already accounts for 75% of all bioeconomy-related production across Brazil’s nine Amazon states. “The bioeconomy is a development strategy based on sustainable use of natural resources, valuing standing forests and fostering production chains tied to sociobiodiversity,” the WRI report states.

But WRI Brazil economist Rafael Feltran-Barbieri warns against expecting the bioeconomy to replicate the scale of soy or cattle. “That would defeat the purpose. Monocultures—even of biodiversity-based products—undermine the principles of the bioeconomy,” he says. “It won’t be massive, but it can do something other industries don’t: include the most vulnerable, who protect and know the forest.”

That warning echoes the cautionary tale of rosewood. Harvesting began in the 1920s, and within 40 years, its oil was one of the Amazon’s top three exports, trailing only rubber and Brazil nuts. But extracting 10 liters of oil required felling and grinding down a nearly one-ton tree. By 1992, rosewood was listed as endangered in Brazil by the National Institute of the Environment and Renewable Resources (IBAMA) and joined similar lists in Colombia and Suriname. A boycott led by French environmentalists in the late 1990s pressured Chanel to seek more sustainable alternatives to cultivate the tree and extract its oil.

Rosewood’s near extinction took place in Amazonas state, but Pará, too, has seen its share of failed ventures. One of the most notable was Fordlândia—a rubber plantation city built by Henry Ford in the 1920s along the Tapajós River between Santarém and Itaituba. Designed to supply the carmaker’s need for latex, the megaproject boasted homes, a hospital, a hotel, even a golf course, some say. All in the middle of the Amazon. The reasons behind its failure are varied and complex: malaria, latex prices, the invention of synthetic rubber. Above all, attempting extensive rubber plantations, combined with the arrogance that technique and science would conquer the tropical forest’s whims, proved fatal. Planted too closely in monoculture style, the trees succumbed to a plague. Without surrounding biodiversity to protect them from pests, the plantation failed. Established in 1928, Fordlândia lasted 18 years and became a ghost town, burying a dream worth $250 million in today’s values.

Trying to industrialize the Amazon like São Paulo or Brazil’s Central-West has repeatedly failed. As Mr. Costa puts it, the region follows a different production paradigm he calls bioecological economy: “A bioeconomy linked to necessary ecology.” It sounds repetitive, but it isn’t. “Problems here aren’t solved by mechanizing or homogenizing more.”

Economist Danilo Araújo Fernandes, also of NAEA, traces the region’s economic invisibility back to its roots. Also a professor at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA), he belongs to a tradition of Belém-based intellectuals who experience and study the jungle’s own pace. He cites the past to explain why national GDP does not capture the Amazon’s real economy, which involves thousands of people but isn’t monetized. Unlike other rubber-producing states like Acre and Amazonas in later phases of the latex boom, Pará never had large plantations. “It was the riverside communities—now known for producing açaí—that led the way. The only think that changed was the product,” he says. “The entire region’s economy originates from an ancestral bioeconomy of traditional populations producing various biodiversity products: rubber, nuts, açaí, cocoa.”

This era saw the rise of “regatões,” large commercial boats distributing products and trading between places. The Amazonian economy emerged with strong trade relations. “A powerful, efficient structure developed, able to trade in a region of long rivers and vast distances, with strategies to finance product marketing,” Mr. Fernandes explains.

Financing this organically complex economic architecture followed the logic of “aviamento,” a kind of credit-debt arrangement where rubber tappers received supplies from trading posts in exchange for their harvest. “Of course, this system is often viewed in research literature as a form of servitude. What I mean to say is that there was accounting, but no cash. It created an invisible economy. It’s the opposite of the wage-based, industrial economy that emerged around São Paulo’s coffee sector after the emancipation of slabery, with workers who earned wages to purchase products. There, an industrial economy was created.”

Belém, Pará’s capital, was once a beacon of prosperity. The city’s grand Teatro da Paz, built in 1870, predates the peak of the Amazon rubber boom in Amazonas and Acre. The capital’s mansions are memories of this opulence. “During Amazonas and Acre’s rubber boom, large plantation owners brought migrants from the Northeast to work as rubber tappers. Here, no.” The populous Belém region, with over 40 islands, housed extractivist families who supplied rubber in the first cycle, enriching Belém. “This structure created the merchant elite and the regatões, bringing Belém goods to communities in exchange for riverside products. It spawned the intermediary, still crucial today. Açaí, for instance, relies on it,” Mr. Fernandes explains. “These structures are ancient and biome-conforming. They struggle to generate income at the end but keep the economy running.”

Today’s bioeconomy, shaped by that legacy, faces major inequalities but remains remarkably effective, argues the researcher “These ancient systems wouldn’t survive otherwise,” says Fernandes. Agroforestry practices have emerged from this history, with communities learning to manage the forest’s diversity for production. We need history to understand the economic structure we now call socio-biodiversity bioeconomy or bioecological bioeconomy,” he says. Agroforestry systems are part of it—communities learned to produce by managing the jungle’s diversity.

Roughly 100 kilometers from Belém and just over an hour by boat on the Guamá River lies Santa Maria, a community in the municipality of Acará. There, amid açaí and bacuri palm trees, is the demonstration unit for meliponiculture by the Peabiru Institute, at a site with 600 stingless bee hives. They are native to the Amazon. “We don’t produce honey here—this is a reproduction center. Bees from here go to projects,” says Cleiton José Oliveira Santos, the technician who manages the bees. “I started 19 years ago, and today the bees are my livelihood.”

Each hive holds around 3,000 bees and yields 3 to 4 kilos of honey. “These bees are key pollinators of our forests. Without them, there’s no forest,” he says. Families receive 30 hives each; in Acará alone, 40 producers are currently involved.

The project relies on innovations rooted in local wisdom. Mr. Santos’s mother proposed using PVC pipes to support the hives. “She saw that after a year, wooden stands broke, hives fell, and everything needed rebuilding. PVC doesn’t rot,” the technician recounts. The social technology includes a sponge soaked in used motor oil to deter ants and termites. “Without this old mattress foam soaked in used oil, likely all these nests would’ve been decimated,” says Manoel Potiguar, Peabiru’s project manager. The oil makes the PVC pipe slippery, preventing larger creatures like coatis and collared anteaters from stealing honey. “This technology results from a collective effort of Embrapa researchers, Peabiru’s experiences, and people like Cleiton’s mother. We create a model,” Mr. Potiguar states.

The last two years have been atypical in the region, with heat waves. Flowering patterns of urucum and ingá trees happened out of season and scarcely, when it did happen. “We expected honey collection in some places but couldn’t because the bees consumed their reserves,” Mr. Potiguar says. They improvised a climate change adaptation—a small bottle attached to hives with water and sugar to feed bees when flowers are scarce. “The process brings novelties, but handling honey and these bees is very old,” Mr. Potiguar acknowledges.

In April, Peabiru launched a new front for the project called “Women Friends of the Bees,” which will distribute 400 hives to women in riverside communities as an effort for food-security, sustainability, and social empowerment of female leaders. “We’ll place bee boxes in women’s communities on Combu and Cotejuba islands,” says Luciana Kellen, Peabiru’s communication and engagement manager, who led the team that took Valor to explore bioeconomy activities in the territory.

“Incorporating gender perspective in the project recognizes that women are major leaders and caretakers here,” Ms. Kellen says. “They already produce cocoa, andiroba, and many other fruits. Having a bee box makes perfect sense and is another income source.” says Ms. Kellen.

Açaí, Pará’s flagship product, depends heavily on native bees. “Açaí generates enormous income for Pará, has a well-structure value chain. But the açaí palm needs pollination, and only these bees can do it. If you clear the surrounding forest, production drops. These bees nest in hollow logs—you lose them, you lose açaí,” says Mr. Potiguar

According to Peabiru CEO João Meirelles, the Amazon is home to 185 identified bee species, with between 30 to 50 awaiting classification. “Native bees have been here for 4 million years. A healthy forest has up to 50 stingless bee species. A pasture or a degraded area maybe has one.” He estimates that 80% of açaí’s value comes from pollination—an ecosystem service that goes unpaid. “We treat it like free water. But it’s essential. We’re learning meliponiculture, invented 50 years ago. In Oiapoque, indigenous people said bees increased banana production. Thats what we wanted: to promote food security and a supplementary income.”

In the quilombola community of Guajará Mirim, a few dozen kilometers away, 200 families produce Brazil nuts, murumuru, uxi, cacao, and honey. “I’ve been going to the jungle since I was small. My father was an extractor of forest inputs for sale in Belém. Back then we were the largest producers of uxi, a tiny sweet fruit. We sold around 30 bags with a thousand uxi a week” recalls Carlos Teles, a local farmer. “He even rowed to the Ver-o-Peso market [in Belém]. Now, there are boats and middlemen who come to us.”

Their prized product today is “açaí da hora,” or “fresh açaí”—harvested and delivered on the same day to markets like Ver-o-Peso, one of the oldest in Brazil and a true wonder of Pará. “You have to consume it right away, or it loses value,” says Mr. Teles. “It’s risky work—a branch may break, or you may have an accident with snakes—but it pays off. I leave for the jungle at 6 a.m. and I’m back by 8:30.”

The family farmer says he sells açaí in his community or to traders who pick it up for Belém. “If I sell here, I’ll base the price on Belém’s rate that day. It could fetch R$300 or R$400 for a basket of 18 kilograms. In 2024, during the off-season, a 60-kilogram açaí sack reached R$1,000,” he says.

In communities near Belém, traders have less power. “But in isolated communities, like inland Marajó, the trader sets the price. Producers have to comply or lose what was harvested,” Mr. Potiguar notes. “That’s right: the açaí value chain here differs greatly from Marajó’s,” Mr. Teles agrees.

At COP30, the climate change conference Belém will host in November, bioeconomy may transition from territories to possibly gaining new dimensions. At Porto Futuro 2, the government reserves spaces to highlight it in business and the future. “One space will be dedicated to community businesses and startups, creating an environment to innovate with social technologies and science, boosting the state’s diverse bioeconomy segments,” says Camille Bemerguy, Pará’s deputy secretary of bioeconomy.

Joelson Conceição da Cunha lives near Mr. Teles and is also an açaí producer. Often working with his nephew Anderson Galiza da Cunha, they collect and leave “rasas”—baskets and containers used to sell the fruit—at a simple pier by the river. Someone comes to fetch or takes it himself to market.

He insists that in his community, they don’t only work with açaí: “We bring cupuaçu, bacaba, peach palm, uxi, piquiá, and other Amazonian fruits.” On the dirt road to the small port, Mr. Cunha points out the Amazon’s bioecological economy menu to forest novices. “Our Amazon forest is rich. That’s cocoa; a box with 60 units is worth R$70 or R$80. But for native açaí cultivators, having taperebá, andiroba, and murumuru simultaneously is crucial. That over there is cupuí, a smaller cocoa relative. Who eats it? Humans, bats, quatipurus,” he teaches. Quati, who? “Quatipuru, the famous Amazon squirrel.” Oh, I see.

*By Daniela Chiaretti  — Belém

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/