Dinheiro — Foto: Daniel Dan-Pexels
Dinheiro — Foto: Daniel Dan-Pexels

Although geopolitical tensions have increased in recent days, given the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the positive dynamics of the real have been striking. With the high spread interest rate between Brazil and the foreign market and the expressive inflow of foreign capital into the domestic stock market, the foreign exchange rate left the level of R$5.71 to the dollar seen at the beginning of January and ended Tuesday being at R$5.0511, the lowest since July 1, 2021.

The move has surprised market analysts and, even after the recent appreciation of the real against the dollar, managers maintain a constructive view and see potential for further appreciation of the Brazilian currency.

Year-to-date, the dollar has dropped 9.39% against the real, in a much more intense movement than that observed in other emerging markets. Also this year, the greenback is down 0.95% in relation to the Mexican peso; dropped 5.45% in comparison with the South African rand; is down 3.34% against the Colombian peso; and shows a decline of 6.96% against the Chilean peso.

Analysts have maintained a constructive bias towards the real in the short term, although they point to a more adverse environment when looking at the coming months. This is the case of the French bank Natixis, which on Tuesday, in a report to clients, started to recommend long positions in reais, that is, those that gain from the appreciation of the Brazilian currency in relation to the Colombian peso.

In the view of Natixis’s chief economist for Latin America, Benito Berber, the more aggressive action by the Central Bank, a decrease in the political risk premium in the prices of domestic assets and the inflow of foreign capital to the Brazilian stock market is likely to support a further appreciation of the real.

“We feel that more market participants are feeling more and more comfortable with holding long positions in real,” says Mr. Berber. For him, the movement takes place despite a slowdown in economic activity in Brazil and latent concerns on the fiscal front. In addition, the economist assesses that there is a drop in the political risk premium, which would support the chance of the real to appreciate further.

At AZ Quest, the bias is also constructive with the future performance of the Brazilian currency. “The movement was large and quite relevant, but we believe it is likely to persist,” said Gustavo Menezes, the company’s macro manager, who highlights, in particular, the evolution of the real interest rate, which started from very negative levels in 2021 to a real rate ex -ante between 6% and 7%.

“The interest rate spread has always been a very relevant determinant in the projection of currencies,” he says. Mr. Menezes also notes that, with the change in the inflationary scenario in Brazil and in the world, the real interest rate expected in the future has become more difficult to project. “Last year, we had a very negative real interest rate, even with the Central Bank raising interest rates, and the return of the currency began to be very harmed,” Mr. Menezes notes.

He reveals that, in the second half of 2021, AZ Quest began to adopt more favorable positions to the real due to the expectation that the real interest rate scenario would undergo important changes. “We still have a debate about what the terminal level of the Selic will be, but inflation has become more palpable and, in the projections, varies between 5% and 6%, that is, we will have, 12 months ahead, a projected real interest rate of about 6%. It’s a pretty big change.”

In addition, Mr. Menezes notes that, in the U.S., the Fed has adopted a tougher speech, but has not yet started to tighten its policy, at a time when inflation has been persistent. “The real interest rate spread is what has made the market take this good stride, in addition to the thesis of reversing the flow, with capital leaving the stock exchanges of the developed markets and returning to emerging markets,” he says.

And it is based on this context that ACE Capital also continues with long positions in real, although they have reduced their size. “We don’t think it’s an appreciation because of the improvement in fundamentals, because the fiscal issue still raises a lot of uncertainty. The fact is that there is a flow of foreigners and there are no signs of interruption or reversal in the very short term,” said Daniel Tatsumi, the firm’s head of currency.

In this sense, Mr. Tatsumi states that ACE has a downbeat view of Brazil, but emphasizes that “it is difficult to bet against the real, especially in the context of portfolio rotation and higher interest rates in Brazil.” The manager draws attention to the fact that the real was heavily punished during the pandemic, both by the flight of capital from risk assets and by the low level of the Selic.

“If we look at the whole year, the real is the best currency and, in 12 months, it is among the best. But if we consider a two-year window, the real just shouldn’t be worse than the Turkish lira. It’s a currency that has been hit a lot and, in this reality, it’s not unreasonable to imagine a dollar below R$5 in the short term,” says Mr. Tatsumi.

In the opinion of the currency manager at Greenbay Investimentos, Marcel Yagui, the exchange rate has benefited from the interest rate spread, as the Central Bank made a major adjustment and made Brazil one of the countries that pays the highest interest rates even in relation to its peers. “This adds to the terms of trade issue, which have been very favorable, and makes our currency attractive from a foreigner’s point of view,” he said.

For Mr. Yagui, the very relevant flow that has entered the local stock market “helps in this very impressive effect of appreciating the real very quickly.” He said that Greenbay maintains an upbeat view of the Brazilian currency due to these factors, but points out that, given the speed of the adjustment, the manager chose to reduce long positions in reais against the dollar.

A less constructive view with the real, however, is defended by the partner and CEO of Armor Capital, Alfredo Menezes, for whom there is an undershooting [exaggeration downwards] of the exchange rate due to the flow of foreign capital. “But this flow is not recurrent. It is one-off, so further on we will see the real weaken [against the dollar] again.”

“Can the exchange rate drop below R$5? It can. It would be very brave to say no, given that the spot dollar is at R$5.05, but I think we are very close to the minimum,” he evaluates. Mr. Menezes says that there is a return of funds from Brazilians who were abroad and that foreigners have entered the Brazilian stock market with funds in the midst of a global rotation of portfolios. “But we cannot forget that it will not be these one-off flows that will finance the current account deficit forever.”

Armor Capital turned the month of January with long position in reais, but zeroed it after recent gains. “With the current level, we are slightly long in dollar,” says Mr. Menezes, that is, with a bet that the dollar will gain ground again against the real.

(Igor Sodré contributed to this story.)

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

The World's Top 10 Science And Technology Hotspots | teknoturk.org

Science, Technology, and Innovation Minister Marcos Pontes said on Monday (Feb. 21) during an interview with TV Brasil program Uncensored, the National Institutes of Science and Technology (INCTs) shall receive around BRL 280 million ($ 54,9 million dollars) in funds for research.

According to Pontes, this amount is part of the more than BRL 1 billion ($ 196 million dollars) invested in the sector in 2022. The minister also informed that another BRL 250 million ($ 49 million dollars) shall be made available to finance various lines of study at the Research Productivity (RP) level. Brazil’s Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MCTI) has a total of 130 INCTs with a gap of 30% in their budget. 

There are more than 70,000 idle vacancies in activities related to information and communication technology (ICT), and the Ministry offers courses and workshops to those interested in joining the sector, the minister said.

During the interview Pontes also talked about the production of vaccines, medicines and medical supplies in Brazil. He stressed the importance of being autonomous regarding their production and promoting scientific research in the country. “We have the strategy of making the country independent in the production of vaccines. If the planet doesn’t sell vaccines to us, we can sell vaccines to the planet. We shall also reduce Brazil’s dependence on medicine imports,” he stated.

Minister Pontes also informed he invited billionaire Richard Branson from Virgin Galactic – a company that offers orbital flights to tourists – to set up a launch center in Brazil.

Source: Agência Brasil

https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en

US Federal Reserve with the third interest rate hike this year

The Focus bulletin of financial market expectations, released on Monday, indicates that neutral interest rate estimates are on the rise, above 4% a year. This trend, if confirmed, means that the Central Bank will have to define a higher Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, in the coming years to keep inflation in check.

The market increased, for the second week in a row, its estimate for the nominal interest rate in 2024, to 7.38% a year from 7.25% a year. This means a real interest rate of about 4.38%, considering the 3% inflation target set by the government for the long term.

This percentage exceeds the estimate of a neutral interest rate of 4% a year given by the market in a survey answered by private-sector analysts in December, on the eve of the meetings of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).

The Central Bank itself estimates a neutral interest rate of 3.5% a year, as disclosed in the Inflation Report last month. But the monetary authority assigns a relatively high probability that the percentage will be higher than that, since it considers that fiscal fragility increases the risk of a higher neutral rate.

The year 2024 is far enough away to leave the most immediate horizon of monetary policy, so the interest rate estimated by the market for the period is a kind of approximation of the economy’s neutral rate.

Today, the Central Bank’s attention is focused on meeting the inflation target mainly for 2023 and, to a lesser extent, 2022. The real interest rate that will be in effect in 2024 will be focused on guaranteeing the fulfillment of the inflation target in 2025.

The increase in the projection for the interest rate in 2024 may reflect, besides an eventual increase in the neutral interest rate, a market view that the fight against inflation may be longer than expected, amid a greater resistance in the rise of global prices.

A sign of these difficulties is that the inflation projection for 2024 also rose for the second week in a row, to 3.09% from 3.04%. The rise, however, is smaller than the advance in nominal interest rates in the period, which reinforces the view that the rise in neutral interest rates may be behind the revision of the outlook for the Selic in the period.

The median projection for the Selic rate for the following years remains at 7% per year. But there are previous signs that it may be on an upward trajectory. The average of the projections for 2025 rose to 7.17% from 7.1%. In the case of projections for 2026, it rose to 7.07% from 6.9%.

It is difficult to determine exactly what is causing the higher estimates for the neutral interest rate. Judging by the December survey, two factors may be playing a role: the increase in fiscal risk and the more challenging international scenario.

This year, the government has once again considered new measures that weaken the fiscal situation, such as tax cuts for fuels and for the industrial sector, in a period in which the government still faces a fiscal deficit. The prospect of interest rates being raised by developed countries also creates uncertainty about the level of interest rates that will prevail worldwide in the long term.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Ficheiro:Thyssen-Krupp-Quartier-Essen-2013.jpg – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia  livre

Present in Brazil for a long time, having automotive components maker Metalúrgica Campo Limpo (state of São Paulo) as a landmark of its operations, the German industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp has new fronts to grow in the country and in South America. In March, it will be bringing to Brazil the Thyssenkrupp Uhde division, which will focus on industrial projects in the area of green chemistry, ammonia and hydrogen, and on environmental facilities at steel production plants.

The segment is a big bet of the group in the world, and in Brazil as a consequence. Here, there are advanced conversations with several companies that have a project to install a green hydrogen or ammonia production unit, either for the domestic market or for export.

“We dominate, worldwide, with 50% to 60% of the installed base of electrolysers focused on chlorine-soda, the green hydrogen technology, and we already have several projects of these products announced and in progress – one with Shell, which is located in Rotterdam, another in Saudi Arabia (Neon project), and also in the U.S. and Canada,” Paulo Alvarenga, head of Thyssenkrupp in South America, told Valor.

Uhde, a business unit controlled by Thissenkrupp Industrial Solutions, will have an engineering office in Belo Horizonte (state of Minas Gerais) and will begin to work with at least 50 people.

Uhde will absorb the steel and chemical activities, focused on various projects. In the steel industry, it will supply industrial facilities such as coke ovens, gas desulfurization units and treatment units to the gas generated in the process, for projects aimed at decarbonization of steel manufacturers.

In the chemical area, the focus is on plants producing fertilizers, such as green ammonia, basic chemicals, polymers and complete value chains for green hydrogen.

The executive adds that the country’s renewable energy capacity would be around 200 gigawatts (GW), with the production of green hydrogen, which requires clean energy (solar, wind) in the hydrolysis process. Today, the total energy mix installed in the country is 170 GW.

The Solutions mining unit was sold worldwide to the Danish company FL Smidth and is awaiting approval from antitrust bodies. Its equipment division for the cement industry continues to be managed by Polysius do Brasil.

The group operates 15 industrial units in Brazil. It employs 4,200 people and had revenues of R$4.8 billion in the 2020/2021 fiscal year, an increase of more than 50% compared to the previous year, which was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, mainly in the automotive components and agricultural equipment division.

According to Mr. Alvarenga, there was a strong recovery in this segment — which serves from light to heavy vehicles, with the most different types of components. “Out of every ten cars, nine have a Thyssen component,” he says, adding that there was a 40% increase. “We are back to the pre-pandemic level.”

The main manufacturing unit of this division is Metalúrgica Campo Limpo, which is next to São Paulo (in the city of Campo Limpo Paulista). It is one of the largest crankshaft manufacturers in the world. There are other units spread across São Paulo, the so-called ABC region around the capital, the city of Taubaté (also in the state of São Paulo), Poços de Caldas and Ibirité (state of Minas Gerais) and São José dos Pinhais (state of Paraná).

According to Mr. Alvarenga, revenue from business in the region, which encompasses Argentina, Chile and Peru, was divided equally for each of the three divisions: automotive, naval defense plus trading of steel products and industrial plant engineering.

The latter covers equipment and services for mining, cement and chemicals, in addition to service centers in Santa Luzia (state of Minas Gerais), Parauapebas (state of Pará), Chile (two) and Peru (two) and offices in Belo Horizonte, in São Paulo and in Chile and Peru.

The third basis — Naval Defense and the Steel Trading business — gained expression from 2021. Imports of steel products grew a lot last year with the heated demand in the Brazilian market.

The naval area emerged with the victory of a Navy tender for the construction of four frigates. For the bidding, the Águas Azuis consortium was formed by Thyssen, Embraer and Atech. This is a $2 billion contract, which provides for the delivery of the vessels ordered by 2028.

The construction of the first frigate is expected to start this year, after the replica is completed. Delivery to the Navy is scheduled for 2025. The others, one every year. The consortium acquired a shipyard in Itajaí (state of Santa Catarina), which was adapted to assemble the frigates. “We are going to transfer technology. The first will already have 30% of national components; the others, 40%.” The business vision is for the operation in Brazil to be a cluster for export to South American countries, says Mr. Alvarenga.

This deal replaced the loss of two others: the steel industry (formerly Thyssekrupp CSA), sold a few years ago to Ternium, and the elevator division, sold globally to private equity funds in early 2020. “In the shipyard, we will have 800 direct jobs, in addition to the 1,200 positions from suppliers and 1,000 indirect jobs (from sub-supplier companies).”

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Petrobras platform — Foto: Divulgação

Leveraged by the appreciation of oil prices, Petrobras is expected to disclose on Wednesday, after the closing of the markets, a robust earnings report, relative to the fourth quarter of last year, according to analysts. The expectation is that, even with the 2.8% drop in oil and gas production in 2021, the company will close the year with record annual profit – which makes room for it to pay more dividends to shareholders.

Until then, the best annual result by Petrobras was in 2019, when the oil company closed the year with a profit of R$40.137 billion. The company accumulates a net profit of R$75.16 billion in the first nine months of 2021 and is on track to reach a new milestone.

The year 2021 marks a turning of the page in Petrobras’ financial restructuring process. It was when the company reached in advance the goal of reducing gross debt to less than $60 billion. The achievement was made possible, above all, by the oil company’s strong cash generation — a scenario that should be repeated in the fourth quarter results. The Institute for Strategic Petroleum Studies (Ineep) estimates, for example, that the company’s free cash flow should total R$45.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

Analysts’ projections indicate that Petrobras is likely again present solid financial indicators. According to the average of the projections of the four banks consulted by Valor (BTG, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs and UBS BB), the oil company is expected to report a R$ 69.8 billion EBITDA for the period between October and December. The amount is 48.3% higher than that calculated in the same period of 2020 and 14.9% higher than in the third quarter of 2021.

For Goldman Sachs, a most expensive barrel should be the main driver of the exploration and production segment, the company’s flagship. The bank’s forecast is that E&P’s EBITDA will grow 10%, in dollars, compared to the third quarter, despite the 3.9% reduction in the company’s total oil and gas production on the same comparative basis. The Brent barrel was priced, on average, at $79 between October and December 2021. For comparison purposes, in the same period of 2020 the commodity was traded, on average, at $44.2 a barrel, while, in the third quarter of last year, the average price was $73.5.

The company’s revenues is expected to total around R$129 billion in the fourth quarter, up 72.1% in the annual comparison and 6.1% compared to the third quarter.

Petrobras is expected to see expressive net income in the fourth quarter, R$25.8 billion, according to the average of the banks’ projections. This number could be substantially higher, according to Ineep, if the oil company makes a new reversal of write-offs due to loss in the value of assets and investments (impairments), as it did in the third quarter of 2021, due to the appreciation of oil.

The positive result expected for the fourth quarter should be reflected in new dividend distributions to shareholders. In 2021, Petrobras paid a total of $12 billion in advance payments, related to the year’s results. The amount is almost double what the company distributed in total between 2018 and 2020.

Credit Suisse estimates that Petrobras will be able to distribute up to $5 billion in dividends related to the fourth quarter, as a reflection of organic cash generation and non-recurring effects. At the end of 2021, it is worth remembering, the company concluded important divestments, such as the one from the RLAM refinery (state of Bahia) to Mubadala, for $1.8 billion. On the cash outflow side, the payment of dividends in December is expected to be highlighted. BTG cites, in turn, that Petrobras’ “comfortable leverage position could mean that additional dividends could be in the horizon”.

Goldman Sachs makes a counterpoint stating that, although there is room for remuneration to shareholders based on the results of the fourth quarter, the company may eventually decide to wait for the results of the first quarter of 2022 to have better visibility of cash generation and only then proceed with new payments. The bank estimates that Petrobras could announce up to $7 billion in new dividends for the first three months of the year.

For 2022, analysts expect earnings to be even higher, since the company is no longer so strangled by debt — reduced by $70 billion since 2014. UBS BB estimates that, without considering divestments, Petrobras’ dividend yield is expected to be 19% in 2022, the highest index, alongside Russian Gazprom, among the 20 international oil companies analyzed by the bank. The dividend yield is a ratio between the dividends paid by a company in a given period and the individual share price and measures the company’s performance in terms of shareholder remuneration.

In November, Petrobras’ CFO Rodrigo Araujo said he expects to start, in the first quarter of 2022, the new dividends policy – which foresees paying an amount equivalent to 60% of the difference between operating cash flow and investments. The formula will be activated when the gross debt is equal to or less than $65 billion and there is accumulated profit. Under the new rules, payment must be made quarterly.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Jumble Spoiler – 12/10/20 | Unclerave's Wordy Weblog

While trying to figure out how to put two green hydrogen plants in the Northeast region by 2025, Qair — a French independent power generation company — is expected to start the construction of a 440 MW solar farm, with an estimated investment of R$1.9 billion, in Icó, Ceará.

Gustavo Silva, the head of operations in Brazil said that the funds will come from local banks. The operation is expected to start by the end of 2023, with most of the power being destined for commercialization in the free market.

Qair has been operating in Brazil since 2017. It has already invested R$2.7 billion in four 600 MW wind and solar power projects in Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte. With this new investment, the company will total 1 GW of capacity in the country.

The company has been studying wind and solar farm projects to produce electricity to supply two green hydrogen plants. One would be located near the Port of Suape, Pernambuco, while the other is likely to be installed around the Port of Pecém, Ceará.

Each plant will require an estimated investment of $3.8 billion and an installed capacity of 8 GW of clean energy (wind and solar) to be supplied. This means, in practice, investments at about $12 billion.

From the technical point of view, the installation of green hydrogen plants is possible, but the financial equation will only be solved when “demand really grows.” In practice, the sector awaits the start of green hydrogen auctions in Europe, scheduled for 2025, an event that is expected to mark the opening of the zero-carbon fuel market. “Today we don’t have a price, because no one is willing to pay for green hydrogen, but there is a high expectation for 2025 and 2030,” the executive said.

One of the main sources for replacing fossil fuels in the energy transition, green hydrogen is produced from a process known as water electrolysis. Although the technology is already mastered, Qair is still seeking to perfect the processes. To this end, the company will begin a production test through a partnership with an autonomous ship, which will work as a laboratory for the next three years. The vessel, called Energy Observer, is the first ship powered by green hydrogen in the world and has been testing the technology with seawater in several wind and sun conditions worldwide since 2017.

Qair was one of the first companies to start studies for green hydrogen production in Brazil, in May last year, in Pernambuco and Ceará. Other multinationals have also signed letters of intent for investment with state governments. In Ceará alone, there were 15 companies — among them White Martins, Fortescue, Neoenergia, AES and Engie.

If all the projects prove to be economically viable, there would be around R$100 billion in investments in Ceará alone in the next 20 years, an unprecedent amount of investments in the state.

Earlier this month, the Ceará government unveiled the first resolution for environmental permit of green hydrogen plants. A working group has been set up to improve the resolution, which details criteria and parameters for obtaining authorizations by investors.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Vanusia Nogueira — Foto: Divulgação
Vanusia Nogueira — Foto: Divulgação

Coffee is part of the economy of every country in the world. Whether uniting production and consumption – or if there is only consumption –it is present in 196 nations and has growth potential in virtually all of them. Despite this, the International Coffee Organization (ICO), founded almost 60 years ago, brings together less than half of them, even though its members account for 97% of global supply and 67% of global demand.

With the mission to expand the sector’s engagement around the world, Vanusia Nogueira, a Brazilian born in Minas Gerais, takes over as executive director of the London-based organization in May, replacing José Sette.

The challenge will involve not only a rapprochement with non-member countries, but broad work on income gains, transparency, market relations and sustainability.

The ICO brings together 75 countries — including all European Union countries, and not just the bloc. Production totals 168 million bags of the Arabica and Robusta varieties, and consumption reaches 167 million bags each harvest.

Assuming that advances will take place “step by step” and without “megalomania”, Ms. Nogueira already indicates the horizon she seeks in five years, when her term ends. “I will be fulfilled if we have all the countries in the world within the ICO,” she said. Thus, the entity will fulfill the task of being a forum for discussion and resolution of issues in its view.

At the age of 60, Ms. Nogueira put aside the idea of retiring and responded to an industry call. Her name was suggested last year – although she says she never wanted the job – and her candidacy was supported by the Brazilian private sector, with the approval of the federal government, and by chain players in other countries — including Colombia. The Colombians, well-known competitors of Brazil, occupy the second place in the supply of Arabica coffee to the world. The election took place in February.

The executive from Três Pontas will face the challenge of defending the pleas of a number of dissatisfied with the entity’s performance around the world, according to sources in the sector. The first woman to lead the ICO, Ms. Nogueira will arrive in the United Kingdom knowing that she will need to shake up an environment that breathes political timing, due to its intergovernmental origin, and that had been the target of harsh criticism in the pre-pandemic years. During this period, the U.S., the world’s largest coffee consumer, left the organization.

“At the last face-to-face meeting, in 2019, we discussed whether it was worth continuing. ICO was heavy, slow, and did not give answers to anyone,” she said. “We concluded that the private sector and civil society should be invited to take part in the debate.”

From there, a public-private task force was created in 2020, led and facilitated by the organization itself, which created five working groups: one coordinator and four others focused on prosperity (income), transparency, the environment and commercial relations. Although they have been moving at a faster pace since last year, Ms. Nogueira arrives to give traction to the actions.

The aspect related to prosperity aims to find out what income is necessary for a coffee grower to “survive with dignity.” The idea is to carry out surveys by regions to discover the gaps between the producer’s current income and the amount he needs to live from the activity.

It is in the scope of the actions to find out what are the causes of the gaps so that problems can be tackled, ranging from lack of education and technical assistance, planted varieties and productivity, to the analysis of structural issues in each region and that reflect in the activity.

Ms. Nogueira also highlights that it is necessary to have serenity to deal with the fact that there will be cases in which the producer will need to think about diversification of economic activity. Depending on environmental and social conditions, she explains, it will not always be possible to live on coffee alone.

In the income-focused group, there are pilot projects underway in Africa and Central America. Local associations such as the African Iaco and Promecafé are taking part, and there is support from development banks from Germany and Switzerland. In addition, talks are underway with FAO and the United States Agency for International Development Support (USAID), as well as other interested parties. The plan is to complete the mapping in all producing countries by 2030.

Another line of action in the task force is the one that will focus on market transparency. A delicate chapter, it involves studying productive cost methodologies. This point, added to financial speculation, are aspects of coffee volatility, she reiterates. The production cost is “hazy” since “there is no common methodology in the world.”

The working group brings together 15 experts in the coffee chain. Brazil has Maciel Silva, a member of the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA), as its representative. The objective is to propose a methodology applicable to different realities.

Other two lines are projects involving environmental recovery and commercial relations. “We thought about how to show the world that agribusiness is not a villain in environmental issues and the idea is to expose what is in progress, like the SOS Mata Atlântica project with Nespresso in Brazil,” she said.

With regard to the work of reintegrating the U.S. — an important consumer country that left the ICO in 2018, under former President Donald Trump — the strategy is to get closer to the Biden administration, involving producing countries that already have a system of lobbying the Americans. The ICO also has the support of the U.S. green, roasted and specialty coffee associations.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

BR-381 auction has not attracted interest parties, and has been canceled — Foto: Alberto Ruy/Minfra
BR-381 auction has not attracted interest parties, and has been canceled — Foto: Alberto Ruy/Minfra

A multi-billion package of highway auctions and acquisitions is expected to make news in 2022. At least nine bids are scheduled for this year, with estimated combined investments of R$80 billion. At the same time, three negotiations underway among private-sector companies are likely to combine for R$12 billion, sources say.

Among the roads in the hands of private-sector groups, AB Concessões, which has Bertin and the Italian company Atlantia as partners, and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala are in talks to sell their assets. In addition, construction company Andrade Gutierrez’s stake in CCR – which operates airports, highways and urban mobility businesses – is the target of dispute.

The agreement in the most advanced stage is the sale of Andrade Gutierrez’s 14.9% stake in CCR. Highways alone account for 61% of the gross revenue of the company, whose control block also includes Mover (formerly Camargo Corrêa) and the Soares Penido family.

Last week, the Peruvian group Aenza, controlled by asset manager IG4 Capital, entered the battle to buy a stake in the construction company, competing with Itaúsa, Opportunity and Votorantim, sources familiar with the matter say. BTG is in charge of the sale.

Andrade’s stake is worth R$3.7 billion, excluding the premium for control of the business, a person familiar with the matter says.

IG4 had already tried to buy Andrade’s stake in CCR last year. The groups reached a preliminary agreement, which provided a disbursement between R$4.6 billion and R$5 billion. Yet, the talks fell apart in November.

BTG Pactual oversees two other operations: the sales of Rota das Bandeiras, a concessionaire controlled by Mubudala, and of Atlantia’s 49.99% stake in AB Concessões. The negotiation for the 50.01% in AB owned by Bertin is advised by XP.

In 2019, Abu Dhabi’s fund and asset manager Farallon acquired 85% (split half and half) of the concessionaire Rota das Bandeiras for R$1.65 billion. Rota das Bandeiras runs Corredor Dom Pedro, which includes key highways in the interior of the State of São Paulo and belonged to Odebrecht Transport (OTP). Odebrecht group’s infrastructure arm is under judicial reorganization.

Two years later, Mubadala bought Farallon’s stake for about R$2 billion and took over the concession. Now, it intends to sell the business for R$4 billion amid an asset rotation drive, sources say. The deal attracted the interest of CCR, another person familiar with the matter says.

In the transaction that involves the sale of the shares of Bertin, which is under judicial reorganization, and Atlantia, the talks are seen as more complex, a source in the financial market says, partly because the shareholders did not agree to sell their stakes as a block.

Of the three assets under management, only the concessionaire Colinas, whose highways crosses 17 cities in the interior of São Paulo, including Campinas and Piracicaba, is considered interesting and could yield R$4 billion to the shareholders, a source says. The Triângulo do Sol concession expires in September and highway MG-050 needs investment.

Huge regulatory liabilities are a major obstacle to unlock the sale of concessions, including disputes around rebalancing and fines for non-compliance with construction works throughout the contract.

The problem is that pending issues often become a snowball as values are adjusted by the return rate of the project – in the case of Colinas, this is 19.5%. Even when concessions change hands, regulatory agencies are usually unwilling to negotiate liabilities, which burden the operation.

Among those highways for sale in the Southeast region, market players believe that the range of interested parties is limited since the region is already dominated by well-established operators, and new entrants would not have much room for expansion.

Despite the challenges, the acquisition of concessions is still seen as an attractive way by groups that want to have presence in the country. This was the move made by Monte Partners, which set up its platform for the sector, Monte Rodovias, from the acquisition of Odebrecht’s concessions in the Northeast region.

The group is preparing to bid in some state auctions this year, focusing on the Northeast and Central-West regions, said Julio Zogbi, founder of the asset management company. The company also continues to look for buying opportunities in the target regions.

“The acquisition of concessions with a remaining term is a great entry point. It proved to be the right model for us, because it brings a team with a track record. It is riskier to enter directly via auction,” the executive said.

The difficulties of attracting new operators to highway auctions has indeed drawn attention in the sector, especially in view of the huge supply of projects scheduled for 2022. Some are concerned that there are not enough investors for so many bids.

This must be taken into consideration by governments, said Marco Aurélio Barcelos, head of ABCR, an association of highway concessionaires. “It is a good problem, because we have many projects. But it is a problem. It is important that authorities ensure that the market will be able to absorb so many auctions. Maybe this scenario signals the need for more players to come,” he said.

The lack of interested parties in projects is a risk that may force governments to postpone challenging bids, said Massami Uyeda, a partner at law firm Arap, Nishi & Uyeda Advogados. This situation became clear last week when the federal government decided to cancel the auction of BR-381, a highway between Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, which was scheduled for next Friday, due to lack of interested parties.

The lawyer believes that some smaller state auctions have the potential to draw more competition, because they attract consortiums of medium-sized companies and more local operations – companies with a different profile of large groups like CCR and Ecorodovias.

There are also new groups analyzing the auctions. However, it is unclear whether they will take part, said Marcos Ganut, a partner at law firm Alvarez & Marsal. “We have new interested companies, with different profiles, including funds and firms from other segments. But I’m not sure that they will take part.”

For Rogério Yamashita, head of infrastructure and logistics in Itaú BBA’s project finance team, new operators are likely to emerge, but auctions are not an easy way. “It is not so simple to participate in a highway auction without having a platform. Foreign groups will have to make an effort to enter the country.”

In his view, political instability and high interest rates in the short term have a limited weight in the auctions. “Whoever invests in 30-year concessions has to be prepared to shoulder market hiccups. I think structural issues are more worrying, such as construction costs or a possible shortage of inputs,” he said.

For Mr. Barcelos, with ABCR, the elections are unlikely to affect the 2022 auctions so much. The question mark, he said, is how the pipeline of projects will look like from next year onwards, with the change of government.

Andrade Gutierrez, Arteris, Bertin, CCR, Mubadala, Votorantim, BTG and XP declined to comment. Itaúsa said it does not comment on market rumors. Atlantia and Opportunity did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Climate Change | OSCE

The greenhouse gases emitted by the automotive industry are mostly caused by the very vehicles that the industry has sold over the past decades. Estimates range from 75% to 96%. But making a car also pollutes. The decarbonization of the production of cars and auto parts involves Brazil, as the factories installed in the country must report to their headquarters, which have global targets to meet. Neutralizing the carbon emitted by the entire chain that involves a vehicle – which includes 2,500 to 5,000 parts – is a complex task. Even with a giant challenge ahead, the industry is already starting to move forward.

As a way to show society that they care about the climate emergency, the largest companies in the sector have started to work with deadlines that move up by at least ten years the goal of the Paris Agreement, which establishes the neutrality of carbon emissions by 2050.

Decarbonization comes at a price. Jaime Ardila, founder of U.S.-based Hawksbill and a consultant in this field, recalled that investments unveiled to this end around the world total $200 billion, according to international studies, a figure that excludes the electrification of vehicles. “But, in the end, the investments will have to be larger,” he said.

In Brazil, there are no calculations of how much the automotive industry has invested in the decarbonization of its industrial processes and logistics. “It depends on the paths that each one will follow,” said Masao Ukon, a partner at Boston Consulting Group. If an auto parts company exchanges the entire fleet that transports its products for electric trucks, for example, it will spend more.

The sector’s great dilemma is how to find ways to involve the whole chain, as hundreds of suppliers deliver thousands of components daily. This is a system without stocks, a condition familiar to the industry for decades. If, on the one hand, just-in-time production has become a reference of lean manufacturing, on the other hand, the method consists of a daily shuttle of trucks to transport the parts.

For the carbon neutralization in this sector to be complete, it must also include car haulers, which take vehicles to dealerships and ports across the country. Among suppliers, the purchasing teams of the automakers have been instructed to include as selection criteria companies that stand out in sustainable practices, in addition to ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) principles.

Scania has created a logistics laboratory that monitors the parts transportation routes. Guilherme Garbin, the company’s maintenance manager, said that this center helps truck drivers choose less congested routes and take advantage of the space in the trailers for maximum load occupancy. “It’s a constant learning process.”

Inside the vehicle factories, the picture is less complex. Brazil has the advantage of using hydroelectric energy, which gives these companies points in the global decarbonization race. Factories located in countries with low supply of renewable power sources have tighter targets. This lightens the burden on the Brazilian subsidiaries on the one hand. On the other hand, the water crisis has triggered warnings. Solar power panels are already in part of the factories of General Motors in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo, and of Mercedes-Benz in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. Iochpe Maxion, a Brazilian wheel manufacturer that has become a multinational, includes overseas plants to close its decarbonization account. The company’s line in Thailand already operates partly with solar power.

Iochpe, the world’s largest wheel maker, also has an example of how modifying products based on changing consumer – and industry – habits can help reduce emissions. The company realized that the production of aluminum wheels emits more than three times as much carbon dioxide as the same product made of steel. There are 9 kilograms of CO2 in every kilogram of aluminum wheels, versus 2.3 in steel wheels. The challenge is to offer alternatives or change the habit of consumers who see the sophisticated finishing of aluminum wheels as a consumption dream.

Another similar example comes from U.S.-based Cummins, which used to paint the engines it delivered to heavy equipment manufacturers, such as trucks. “We started to send engines without color, only with varnish, to customers,” said Adriano Rishi, the company’s CEO for Brazil. Nobody complained.

Not all changes, therefore, require high investments. Some ideas are simple and cost little or nothing. “We can stop painting more hidden parts in a car,” said Antonio Filosa, the chief operating officer of Stellantis for South America. The search for lighter materials has also helped, according to Iochpe Maxion CEO Marcos de Oliveira.

The challenge also involves reducing power and water consumption. Between 2003 and 2019, General Motors managed to reduce by 60% the electricity consumption per vehicle and by 2030 it intends to save 35% of the power spent in processes compared with 2010, according to Glaucia Roveri, GM South America’s energy, environment and sustainability manager.

Older plants have been adjusted. With more than 90 years, GM’s facilities in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo, recently had the press system replaced by more modern technology, which reduced power consumption by 50%, Ms. Roveri said. Because it was located in the city at a time when the region was not very urbanized, this was one of the first factories, at the end of the 1980s, to install a water treatment system for industrial reuse. “Today, we are all living around the factories. People are going to start rejecting products from companies that are not environmentally correct,” she said.

Mercedes-Benz’s plant in São Bernardo, which started operating in 1956, has been receiving equipment that use less electricity and smart lighting systems. “We are in this transformation process since 2018,” said Rafael Gazi, the company’s process planning manager.

ZF, the German auto parts giant, has also adapted its Brazilian facility. According to the regional environmental manager, Celso Guerra, in addition to the exchange of engines and compressors, the company adopted power efficiency modules for the total shutdown or the secondary functions of the machines.

In newer factories, designed with greener solutions, the process is easier. A year ago, Stellantis announced that its plant in Goiana, Pernambuco, achieved carbon neutrality. The vehicle factory had already obtained, in 2017, the gold seal of the GHG Protocol Brasil program, which seeks to encourage companies to quantify and manage greenhouse gas emissions. By 2021, all 16 factories that make up the supplier complex were included. Toyota’s Sorocaba plant, in the São Paulo state, is about to achieve carbon neutrality. The company is, however, waiting for an audit result, said Viviane Mansi, head of sustainability for Latin America.

Waste disposal is another problem in industrial processes. Thanks to the recovery of packaging and better use of organic waste (such as food scraps consumed in the cafeterias, which serve as fertilizer for the gardens) Scania reduced the portion of waste sent to landfills to 6% from 14% in three years. “Our goal is to reach zero,” Mr. Garbin said. The company will soon start its own sewage treatment plant around its plant in São Bernardo.

In vehicle factories, painting is among the activities that demand the most electricity for the process and water for cleaning the equipment when changing colors. The team at Mercedes’ truck cab plant in Juiz de Fora has discovered a new way to clean the supports that carry parts during the painting process. A simple solvent will replace the thousands of liters of water that used to be sprayed when cleaning the parts.

Next to the factory building was an unused shed. There, the company now stores tanks with solvent where the parts are immersed. This is a sustainable process, said Marcos Marsola, process planning manager in Juiz de Fora. The solvent can be reused in the same process. And the leftover paint goes to the cement industry. To complete the process, the roof of the shed received solar power panels. Mr. Marsola even looked for international benchmark, but he couldn’t find any. “This project started from scratch,” he said.

In quality and safety tests of cars, the industry is beginning to replace part of the so-called “crash tests” (in which the vehicles are destroyed) by virtual simulations. This is done by Volks’s engineering team in São Bernardo, for example. Recently, Stellantis invested in a laboratory in the Betim plant that does from material analysis to the final product testing. “The crash test also pollutes as we often sent the cars for tests abroad, which involved diesel consumption in trucks and ships,” Mr. Filosa said. In this case, decarbonizing also helps companies reduce costs.

Financial operations are also starting to be part of decarbonization. At the beginning of the month, Volkswagen reached an agreement with Bradesco to raise debt with ESG commitments. In exchange for funds, the automaker commits to transfer 12% of its CO2 emissions in the production process from fossil to biogenic origin by 2024, and to increase the share of biomethane to 20% of the total gas used by the factories.

New ideas even include employee transport. Volvo intends to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% in employee transport by 2025. According to the company’s CEO, Wilson Lirmann, this involves chartered buses at the Curitiba plant and even remote working. “This is something that the pandemic taught us,” he said. Scania created, for employees who use fleet cars, a corporate card that only allows them to fill up with ethanol.

Despite the several efforts, for the time being, decarbonization plans in this sector have proven to be less organized than its historical and impeccable industrial production system. Companies acknowledge, however, the need to adapt not only the vehicles but also the chain that produces them to the climate urgency. “It’s a matter of survival,” Mr. Garbin said.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Vale's iron ore attract foreign investors — Foto: Agência Vale
Vale’s iron ore attract foreign investors — Foto: Agência Vale

Despite the good performance of the Brazilian stock market this year, the market gains are concentrated in a restricted group of stocks, the destination of foreign investment in recent weeks. The focus has been on consolidated, liquid companies and not always with fundamentals that justify a long-term bet.

In the year, Ibovespa, the stock exchange’s main index, rose 7.68%, while the Small Caps, which includes companies with smaller capitalization, dropped 0.43%. Of the 90 stocks that make up the Ibovespa, only 39% outperform the index.

The group comprises stocks from the financial, raw materials and energy sectors, which have been the target of global investors. But, according to Valor Data, only ten shares account for 94.4% of the gains accumulated by the Ibovespa in the year. These are securities from companies such as Vale, Petrobras, Itaú, Bradesco, B3, Banco do Brasil, Hapvida and BTG Pactual.

With the exception of Hapvida, all stocks are raw materials exporters or companies in the financial sector. Altogether, they have a total weight of 49.8% in the Ibovespa theoretical portfolio, a fact that further highlights this discrepancy – the other half of the index accounts for only 5.6% of the accumulated gains in 2022.

Also noteworthy is the fact that, of the 90 stocks that make up the Ibovespa, only 35, or 39%, outperform the index. This group also includes stocks from the financial sector and raw materials, in addition to energy shares, the destination of the global investor, who is zeroing out positions in growth stocks.In 2022, foreigners increased their long position in B3 by R$58 billion — institutional investors reduced their position by R$48 billion.

For analysts, part of the foreign flow arrives in the country because the bonds seem cheap, due to the exchange rate. Guto Leite, with Western Asset, says that foreign investors have returned, but have opted for more liquid stocks.

He explains that the external flow, at first, focuses a lot on purchases through ETFs [exchange-traded funds] and this ends up having a greater impact on more liquid companies. “As the scenario is opaque, in general, privileging this type of bonds also makes sense,” says Alexandre Cancherini, manager at Frontier Capital.

For Daniel Gewehr, portfolio co-manager with WHG asset, the Brazilian stock exchange is benefiting from the global movement to search for value stocks, and no longer for growth stocks, after the world’s central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, prepare the monetary policy normalization cycle. “Brazil is perceived as a value market, 70% of the Ibovespa is made up of this type of bonds,” he says. “Russia is also a value market, but due to geopolitical issues, part of the flow that could migrate to that market may be coming to Brazil.”

For André Lion, partner and CIO of Ibiúna Investimentos, it is also necessary to consider the global investor reduced exposure to Brazil, both on the stock exchange and exchange in 2021, and became “underweight”. This global adjustment of positions opened space, therefore, for this investor to return to Brazil, especially attracted by stocks with attractive valuations, such as commodities, banks and steel. “But not everything is cheap,” he warns.

According to Mr. Lion, the Ibovespa is currently traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 times, below the historical average of 11 times. Stocks linked to commodities, in turn, are currently traded at 6.6 times, with Petrobras having a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8 times. But when considering only the group of stocks that are neither of state-owned companies nor linked to commodities – companies that reflect more directly the local economy, therefore – the multiple is higher, at 13.6 times.

In any case, Mr. Lion considers that the conditions for the external flow to continue reaching Brazil is likely to remain in the coming months. He says that, in addition to the fact that the valuation remains relatively attractive, favorable conditions for the exchange rate may even increase, as the Selic policy interest rate rises and the carry trade expands. In addition, with the interest rate hike by the Fed, the movement of migration from growth positions to value stocks is expected to intensify. “The Fed has only started to reduce purchases, soon it will completely withdraw the stimulus. This will have an impact on the market,” he says.

Mr. Gewehr, with WHG, also believes that the flow of external capital is likely continue, but at a slower pace. And it will continue to focus on the so-called “blue chips” [companies with greater liquidity and capitalization]. He says that the Ibovespa’s fair price today is a little below 11 times, according to the price-to-earnings ratio metric, which means that the stock market is still attractive.

“The Ibovespa trades with a 30% discount, while the world has a 10% premium, Brazil is still cheap in relative terms,” he says. “Our global fund chose to have some exposure to Brazil because the stock exchange looks interesting today.”

The negative point, he observes, is the profits projections of the companies that make up the Ibovespa, a fall of 12% in 2022. “In the tripod that investors consider to invest in the stock market, we have a good valuation, and also low allocation. What is missing is an upward revision of profits,” he says. Another risk, he points out, is the behavior of commodity prices. “It’s an investment that makes sense, but it’s risky.”

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com