April inflation hints at slight slowdown

This was the highest rate for the month of April since 2023, when it was 0.57%. In April 2024, the IPCA-15 had increased by 0.21%.

The result exceeded the median of 32 projections from analysts at consulting and financial institutions surveyed by Valor Data, who had estimated a 0.42% increase in April. The range of estimates varied from an increase of 0.37% to 0.54%.

With the April data, the IPCA-15 registered a 5.49% increase over 12 months. As of March, the 12-month result was 5.26%. The cumulative IPCA-15 for 2025, up to April, was 2.43%.

The 12-month result was above the median of the 32 estimates collected by Valor Data, which was 5.48%, with a range between 5.43% and 5.6%. The inflation target set by the Central Bank for 2024 is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below.

Of the nine price categories used to calculate the IPCA-15, five saw an acceleration in increases from March to April. Higher rates were observed in food and beverages (to 1.14% from 1.09%); household goods (to 0.37% from 0.03%); clothing (to 0.76% from 0.28%); health and personal care (to 0.96% from 0.35%); and communication (to 0.52% from 0.32%).

Conversely, there was a slowdown in the rate of increase in housing (to 0.09% from 0.37%); personal expenses (to 0.53% from 0.81%); and education (to 0.06% from 0.07%). Transportation reversed direction (to -0.44% from 0.92%).

The IPCA-15 is a preview of the IPCA, which is calculated based on a typical consumption basket for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. The indicator covers nine metropolitan regions (Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, and Curitiba), in addition to the cities of Brasília and Goiânia. The difference from the IPCA lies in the collection period and geographic coverage.

Inflation became more widespread among the items comprising the IPCA-15 in April. The Diffusion Index, which measures the proportion of goods and services that experienced price increases in a given period, rose from 61% in March to 67.8% a month later, according to calculations by Valor Data considering all items in the basket.