Selective tax decree could bring list of industrialized product exemptions

The Lula administration’s economic team is considering publishing the list of products that will be exempt from the Industrialized Products Tax (IPI) on the same day it sends the provisional presidential decree (MP) on the Selective Tax (IS) to Congress. The IPI will be replaced by the Selective Tax in 2027. The tax will not disappear entirely, however, because it will still be levied on a small list of items to preserve the competitiveness of the Manaus Tax Free Zone (ZFM).

The two measures are eagerly awaited by companies because they can clarify exactly how these taxes will work next year. The consumption tax reform provides for the IPI rate to be reduced to zero starting in 2027 for all products except those produced in the ZFM. The IPI is expected to apply to only 5% of industrial products in the country, with the rate set at zero for the rest.

Supplementary Law 214, which regulates the consumption tax reform, requires the Executive branch to publish a detailed list of products that will have a zero IPI rate starting in 2027. The Federal Revenue Service has promised the publication since the end of May, but its release was delayed by the preparation of the Annual Budget Bill (PLOA) and uncertainties surrounding the Selective Tax.

The strategy now is to publish the list alongside the Selective Tax MP this month, in September. The goal is to link a measure considered negative by one faction of the government—taxing goods and services harmful to health or the environment through the Selective Tax—with a positive one: reducing the IPI rate to zero for about 95% of industrial goods produced in the country.

The decision has not yet been finalized, however. Part of the government’s political wing continues to argue that the Selective Tax MP should be postponed until after the elections, fearing its electoral impact, even though the tax would not represent an increase in the tax burden on the affected sectors. In that case, the IPI details could be released first and the Selective Tax later.

On Monday (31), Finance Minister Dario Durigan reiterated that the rates proposed for the Selective Tax will take into account the same tax burden that the sectors affected by the new tax currently pay in IPI. “The Selective Tax projection takes into account the IPI burden that exists today, as I am negotiating with the sectors, maintaining the commitment not to increase the tax burden,” the minister said.

In the 2027 budget proposal, the government estimated that IPI revenue will amount to just R$5.497 billion, since the tax will be levied only residually to preserve the competitiveness of the ZFM, which generates tax credits. By comparison, the government expects to collect R$99.99 billion from the IPI this year, according to the latest bimonthly report on the assessment of revenues and expenditures in the 2026 budget.

The remainder of today’s IPI revenue was allocated for 2027 between the Selective Tax and the Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS), which will also replace the Social Integration Program/Contribution for Social Security Financing (PIS/Cofins) and the Tax on Financial Operations (IOF)-Insurance. The government estimates it will collect R$636.8 billion from the CBS in 2027 and R$42 billion from the Selective Tax. The figures may change depending on the rates ultimately set for the new taxes.

Revenue from the Selective Tax is much lower because, per the consumption tax reform, it applies only to products and services harmful to health and the environment, rather than to all products currently subject to the IPI.

Tax lawyer Luiz Gustavo Bichara, founding partner of Bichara Advogados, believes the government, “for political reasons and due to disorganization,” has not yet submitted the bill establishing the Selective Tax rates. “And now it will distort the purpose of the decrees, which should be issued in situations of urgency,” he said.

In his view, the delay in setting the rates creates legal uncertainty and makes it harder for companies to plan for next year. It also hampers efforts to attract potential new foreign investors. “How can someone establish themselves in a new country without knowing how much tax they will pay?” Bichara asks.

On the spending side, the near-elimination of the IPI will require the federal government to spend R$33.8 billion in 2027 to compensate states and municipalities for the end of the tax. The amount was also included in the 2027 budget proposal—equivalent to 0.2% of GDP.

The compensation will be necessary because the government shares part of IPI revenue with states and municipalities. In 2027, however, total IPI revenue will be replaced by the Selective Tax and the CBS, and only Selective Tax revenue will be shared with subnational governments, while CBS revenue will remain entirely with the federal government.

Because of that, the tax reform provides for compensation through a constitutionally mandated transfer to states and municipalities. To arrive at the R$33.8 billion figure, the government calculated the difference between what is currently transferred to states and municipalities through the IPI and what will be transferred through the Selective Tax. That difference became the budgetary compensation subnational governments will receive in 2027.

A government official told Valor that if the Selective Tax is significantly weakened during its consideration by Congress, compensation to states and municipalities will have to increase. Likewise, if the Selective Tax is strengthened, the amount will be reduced.

The R$33.8 billion transfer was classified in next year’s budget as a primary expenditure, meaning it is included in the calculation of the primary balance for purposes of meeting the fiscal target. At the same time, it was excluded from the year’s spending limit and classified as expenditure not subject to the cap.

*By Jéssica Sant’Ana — Brasília

Source: Valor International

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