Brazil seeks ways to expand gas supply

Idea is to review regulation to enable a 25% reduction in cost to industry, minister of Energy says

04/23/2024

Alexandre Silveira — Foto: Fabio Rodrigues-Pozzebom/Agência Brasil

Alexandre Silveira — Foto: Fabio Rodrigues-Pozzebom/Agência Brasil

The Ministry of Mines and Energy carried out a study aimed at identifying opportunities to expand the supply of natural gas in Brazil and found that it’s possible to deliver more than 150 million cubic meters per day (m3/day) in the coming years. The study’s general ideas were unveiled to investors in the sector on Thursday (18) by Minister Alexandre Silveira at the 2024 Gas Week event.

In addition to expanding the product’s supply, the government plans to adopt regulatory measures aiming at flow and processing activities that could reduce the end price by 25%, especially for the industry.

The increase in natural gas volumes delivered to the domestic market would come from ongoing projects and initiatives under study. According to the minister, the acquisition of Argentine gas from the Vaca Muerta region could increase supply by 3 million m3/day. He estimates another 14 million m3 in the Brazilian market with Equinor’s Raia Project. Rota 3, Petrobras’s processing unit in Rio de Janeiro, will contribute another 18 million m3/day. The same volume should be made available with the Sergipe Águas Profundas Project (SEAP).

To deliver a substantial volume of gas, the government will have to implement plans to develop the biomethane market, with a potential supply of 60 million m3/day—the minister compared it with Brazil’s pre-salt oil wealth. Another challenge would be to break resistance to unconventional gas exploration, which uses the controversial fracking process to extract oil and gas from porous rocks underground. In this case, the increase in supply would be 32 million m3/day.

Regarding the 25% price cut, the minister of Mines and Energy argued that the high cost of transportation through maritime gas pipelines that take the product from wells to the coast, as well as treatment in processing units (UPGNs), must be addressed.

Mr. Silveira said the gas comes out of the wellhead, where it is produced, at a cost of $2.86 per million BTU (British thermal units). However, transport stages through maritime gas pipelines and treatment in UPGNs add up to $9.22 (or 46% of the end price). “When it arrives on land, this gas costs the domestic industry $12.08. In other words, it arrives on the Brazilian coast at prices well above the international average,” Mr. Silveira argued.

To that value, according to the minister, there is an additional cost of $2.04 for the onshore transportation gas pipeline and $1.28 for the local piped gas service, reaching the end price of $20.14 per million BTU. “Gas in Brazil has an absurd price. We have identified it, and now we have to discuss how to work towards an updated, safe regulation in the gas flow pipeline. We cannot fail to be transparent in that,” he said.

The government found that gas producers choose to inject gas back into the well as the end price makes commercialization unfeasible. “Today, our production is just over 140 million m3/day, while reinjection exceeds 73 million m3/day,” the minister said. He pointed out that the global industry reinjects, on average, 28% of the gas produced.

“Our gas has to reach the chemical, steel, metallurgy, ceramics, energy industries, and others. It has to reach those who produce wealth and generate opportunities in Brazil,” Mr. Silveira claimed at the event opening.

The minister advocated for a “supply shock” in the sector. “We are going to promote a real gas supply shock, with access to flow and processing infrastructure, thus reducing costs,” he said.

Following the example of the electricity sector, Mr. Silveira said the gas market should have a “monitoring committee,” bringing together authorities from key agencies to hold regular meetings to discuss supply conditions and prices for the product.

“Monitoring supply and demand in the sector will be constant. We will create a monitoring committee to check the progress of works and the entry into operation of relevant projects to ensure national supply,” Mr. Silveira said.

“Brazil will no longer have one of the most expensive natural gas on the planet,” he added.

* Por Rafael Bitencourt — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Lombard Odier to grow in Brazil without acquisitions

Swiss group shapes organic expansion strategy to maintain boutique service

04/23/2024

Frédéric Rochat — Foto: Gabriel Reis/Valor

Frédéric Rochat — Foto: Gabriel Reis/Valor

With $351 billion in wealth management globally, Swiss private banking firm Lombard Odier wants to grow in Brazil with no acquisitions. All foreign groups that achieved a relevant share in this segment took shortcuts through acquisitions. That was the case with Credit Suisse, now owned by UBS, and Julius Baer Family Office.

Frédéric Rochat, a partner and executive at the bank since 2012, explained that the current group is the outcome of the 2000 merger between two centuries-old family-held financial institutions: Lombard Odier and Darier Hentsch. No other consolidation movement has been taken since then and the group has grown organically. The same logic will prevail in Brazil, where the private banking firm opened its office in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“[Organic growth] is at the heart of Lombard Odier’s model. We are not listed [on the stock exchange], we are a privately held firm structured as a partnership. That is the best quality growth we want to achieve, always organically,” said Mr. Rochat, who spoke with Valor at the firm’s local office during a recent visit to Brazil. “Critics will say it is too slow, that it would be better to make acquisitions. We say yes, it is slower, you need to be patient, but it allows us to build lasting quality in the way we develop the customer base and the team. We can handpick our customers, and new team members, and integrate them into our culture.”

According to Mr. Rochat, the wealth management industry, not only in Brazil but also in Europe and worldwide, is going through ramifications. “We see wealth management players becoming bigger and bigger, going through strong consolidation. We take a different approach. We like to keep it human size.”

The executive points out that $351 billion in investor funds is a small amount compared to the size of large financial groups—UBS and CS combined total some $4 trillion. But Lombard’s size, according to Mr. Rochat, allows the firm to get to know every customer “individually and personally.” Financial conglomerates tend towards standardization, he says, which is why the plan is to continue as a privately-held boutique.

“Going public would be good for acquisitions, to increase equity. But that could bring natural tension, with short-term pressures to report the best results for shareholders versus the long-term interest of customers,” Mr. Rochat explains. “Due to these pressures, many large banks view the wealth management business as a product distribution channel. We don’t perceive ourselves as product sellers. We offer the best possible long-term advice, we are trusted advisors. Customers are smart, they know what type of model they prefer.”

The executive points out that, although the firm is physically new to Brazil, relations with the country span almost eight decades serving Brazilian businesspeople and their families from its base in Geneva. “Opening an office in São Paulo was a natural step considering our strong commitment to get closer and provide investors with greater convenience,” Mr. Rochat said. “We are very pleased with the customer base we are developing in São Paulo, we are on target. Brazil is a strategically important market. We respect its economic performance and admire the country’s entrepreneurial fabrics.”

The executive did not disclose specific goals for the local operation. However, a fair slice would be 1% to 2% of the volume the group has under its umbrella globally, according to Marc Braendlin, Lombard Odier’s head in Latin America.

The goal, according to Mr. Rochat, is not to go head-to-head with the large private banking groups operating in the local market, but rather to complement the offer with alternatives in a strong foreign currency, including assets with a focus on sustainability.

He is aware that competing with Brazilian interest rates and unmatched returns above inflation is not trivial for a foreign wealth management firm. But he believes there is a willingness for diversification among businesspeople who already have exposition to risk in Brazil, whether in illiquid alternatives, linked to the real economy abroad, or in liquid options, as international bonds now offer more attractive rates. “Many businesspeople want to increase their exposure to private assets. And the biggest markets are still the U.S. and Europe.”

Mr. Rochat understands the sustainable approach as the asset manager’s ability to map the paths of climate transition and identify which companies will emerge stronger to be included in the portfolio while removing the ones that will lose ground. “Entire economic systems or sectors will be turned upside down. Some companies will emerge stronger, others will have their business models seriously challenged.”

Behind that is the belief that responsible practices tend to be a driver of financial performance. However, having a great environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score is not enough.

In this field, Brazil could act as an attractor of foreign capital, a type of exposure that Lombard Odier could have through international private equity managers listed on the stock exchange to fund local projects. “For Brazil, one of its priorities in the coming years will likely be creating the right economic environment to increasingly attract direct investments,” said Mr. Rochat.

That is not an easy market for foreign capital, Mr. Braendlin adds, although he sees potential in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and logistics. “It is not enough, there are many other countries that lack investments.”

A curious note, according to Mr. Rochat, is that the first contact between Lombard Odier and Brazil dates back to 1870 when the firm engaged in underwriting a public offering to back the first oil and gas company in Rio de Janeiro. At the time, the crown granted concessions for oil and mineral exploration for 90 years.

*Por Adriana Cotias — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Lula mobilizes ministers to quell political crisis

Key aides met leaders of the governing coalition in the Lower House to address the Executive branch’s legislative agenda

23/04/2024

Arthur Lira — Foto: Zeca Ribeiro/Câmara dos Deputados

Arthur Lira — Foto: Zeca Ribeiro/Câmara dos Deputados

President Lula’s ministers stepped in to defuse a growing crisis between the Planalto Palace and Congress. Following the president’s meeting with Lower House Speaker Arthur Lira, key aides such as Institutional Relations Minister Alexandre Padilha and Chief of Staff Rui Costa, responsible for political coordination, convened with leaders of the governing coalition in the Lower House on Monday to address the Executive branch’s legislative agenda.

The meeting was set at the residence of Congressman Emanuel Pinheiro Neto, a member of the governing coalition. The group of deputy leaders includes representatives from several parties, not just President Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT). By Monday night, the outcome of the discussions remained unclear.

The initiative came from José Guimarães, the government’s leader in the Lower House, amidst an ongoing spat between Messrs. Lira and Padilha. The purpose was to gather pro-government lawmakers for a broader discussion “on politics,” as the administration has been facing recurring difficulties in its relations with Congress.

“This would mark the start of political meetings, to discuss politics beyond the usual legislative debates, amendments, and appointments,” said a source in the presidential palace. Mr. Guimarães, who arranged the dinner, conceded last Friday that the relationship between Mr. Lira and the presidential palace’s political coordination team needed “minor repairs here and there.”

The friction prompted Mr. Lula to demand more dedication to political coordination from his ministers on Monday. Speaking at an event in the palace, he highlighted the disproportion of the Workers’ Party representation in Congress—70 out of 513 deputies and nine out of 81 senators—and emphasized the need for more proactive engagement: “[Vice President Geraldo] Alckmin needs to be more dynamic and engage more. [Finance Minister Fernando] Haddad should spend less time reading and more time discussing issues in the Senate and the Chamber, along with Wellington [Dias, minister of Social Development] and Rui Costa engaging in conversations with various parliamentary caucuses. It’s tough but we can’t complain because that’s politics. Either you do it, or you don’t get involved in politics at all.” Mr. Haddad later quipped that he does nothing but that.

Behind the scenes, there is internal pressure within the government for Mr. Lula himself to become more actively involved in political maneuvers. In his previous terms, Mr. Lula frequently engaged directly with allied lawmakers, hosted events at the presidential residence in Brasília, and invited members of Congress to join his delegations on national and international trips—an approach that has been absent this term, which insiders argue has negatively affected interactions with Congress.

A rare exception occurred with Mr. Lula’s recent meeting with Mr. Lira on Sunday, as confirmed by sources to Valor. Originally scheduled for later in the week, the meeting was expedited to Sunday by advisors close to both parties. The meeting was not officially documented in their schedules. Mr. Lira did not respond to requests for comment.

Mr. Lula’s meeting with the congressman was part of an effort to mitigate the conflict between the Lower House speaker and the government’s political coordination team, led by Mr. Padilha.

The political crisis was fueled by the government’s decision to dismiss Mr. Lira’s cousin from the leadership of the National Institute of Land Reform and Colonization (INCRA) in Alagoas. Following the dismissal, Mr. Costa approached Mr. Lira to deny Mr. Padilha’s involvement in the incident. Sources say that Mr. Costa even offered to show his message exchanges with Mr. Padilha on the matter as proof of his account, but Mr. Lira deemed it unnecessary.

(Guilherme Pimenta and Jéssica Sant’Ana contributed reporting.)

*Por Renan Truffi, Estevão Taiar, Mariana Assis, Raphael Di Cunto, Marcelo Ribeiro — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Companies spend more on interest payments than on investment

Financial expenses reached R$306bn in 2023, while capital allocation totaled R$298bn; delay in fiscal target worsens the scenario

04/22/2024

André Freitas de Moura — Foto: Rogerio Vieira/Valor

André Freitas de Moura — Foto: Rogerio Vieira/Valor

Brazilian companies spent more on financial expenses—mainly made up of interest payments—than on investment in 2023, according to a survey carried out for Valor encompassing all domestic publicly traded companies.

They set aside R$306.8 billion for these expenses last year, 8.2% more than in 2022. In the same period, the amount allocated to investment totaled R$298.7 billion, practically unchanged.

Although the economic environment started to worsen in 2021 with the rise in Brazil’s policy interest rate Selic, this situation was not seen in 2022. That year, investments totaled R$299.2 billion, while expenses with interest rates and charges were R$283.6 billion.

Data from financial statements by 386 non-financial publicly traded companies were collected by André Freitas de Moura, a professor and consultant at FGV/EAESP who holds a PhD in accounting and finance from the University of Birmingham.

Although the Central Bank’s move to reduce the Selic after 2023 could mitigate such an impact this year, the government’s decision to postpone the fiscal target achievement has led to a consensus in the market that interest rates will fall slower. The worsening of the global scenario due to the aggravation of the geopolitical environment in 2024 also weighs on companies’ results.

This situation directly impacts investment plans as companies tend to protect their cash reserves. “The same thing we saw in 2022 and 2023 will likely recur in 2024, with still relevant interest rates pressure and persistent net interest rate spread,” said Pedro Magalhães, who served for over two decades as a financial executive at large corporations in Brazil.

According to him, around 70% of banks’ cost in a debt operation with small and medium-sized companies comes from net interest rate spread, which has not been falling. “That affects the cost of capital, and, as a result, investments,” he points out. According to the Central Bank, there was a 0.5 points increase in the spread rate for companies in 2024 (to 9.2% per year). In 2023, it rose 0.2 points.

The net interest rate spread is the difference between interest rates charged by banks on companies and those they pay to raise funds.

A more gradual decline in interest rates could delay a stronger reduction of expenses for companies with debt linked to the Selic. Banks estimate that the stock of corporate debt in the country is currently around R$600 billion considering both publicly traded and privately held companies.

Experts point out that investment movements vary according to each sector. Companies from the consumer segment tend to hold back spending, while those from areas such as telecommunications and paper manufacturers have announced larger investments. That was the situation before the fiscal risk increased a few days ago.

“Companies that were planning to make larger investments are already considering a change in the route. Also, we have seen complaints among entrepreneurs at dinners and private conversations since last week. Higher public debt creates more inflation and affects confidence,” said a businessman in the capital goods sector who has worked in this segment since 1972.

The survey carried out by the FGV professor also reveals that the ratio between expenses and investment cash has worsened.

This indicator increased to 0.84 in 2023 from 0.80 in 2022, which means that for each R$100 that companies allocated in investments, interest expenses to finance growth went from R$80 to R$84.

To avoid distortions, the broad indicator was based on an average of that ratio in all companies surveyed.

Mr. Moura’s study does not consider financial institutions and includes Petrobras and Vale. However, when excluding the two giant companies, there were R$272.3 billion in financial expenses and R$227.8 billion in investments in 2023.

According to Eliseu Martins, a professor emeritus at FEA/USP and a guest member of the Accounting Procedures Committee (CPC), the rise in interest rates weighed on expenses. He points out that the impact could have been even worse but, to avoid the rise, companies reorganized their debts and sought fixed-rate financing, including inflation-indexed instruments.

“When the Selic was at 2% per year in 2020, companies aware that this would not be sustainable tried to avoid the rate,” Mr. Martins said.

“However, there is still a lot of foreign-currency-denominated debt, and, with the exchange rate on the rise, that becomes a concern again due to the scenario of global uncertainty.”

Foreign exchange has an accounting impact on companies, not on their cash, and it is experienced by those with no currency hedging. The exchange rate is up 3.67% against the real in April and 7.13% in 2024.

Although the Selic started to fall after August 2023, the companies considered in their financial statements the peak rate, at 13.75%, in 2022 and much of last year.

The positive effect of the interest rate reduction was not seen until the fourth quarter of 2023. The Selic policy rate is currently at 10.75% per year.

Based on the data collected, Mr. Moura found that the weight of investments in the corporations’ total revenue between 2022 and 2023 fell, while the share of expenses on revenue remained unchanged.

“Publicly traded companies spent a larger amount on interest rates than on investments in 2023, and that was caused rather by the decrease in investment than by an increase in interest expense and charges, which were already high,” Mr. Moura said.

Expenses include interest rates, taxes, and spending on contracting loan facilities. Investments include payment for acquisitions, financial investments, and funds generated by business divestment, among others.

Another survey, carried out by Valor Data with publicly traded companies, reveals the effect of the increase in net financial expenses on these companies’ bottom lines.

According to the numbers, excluding Petrobras, Vale, and companies under court-supervised reorganization, these expenses rose 25% last year, while net earnings fell 12%—to R$186 billion from R$213 billion.

There was a decline in final results despite operating expenses (which also affect profits) rising slightly, around 5%, close to the inflation rate in the same time frame. Only in the fourth quarter, some relief was seen in interest expenses, which fell compared to a year earlier.

Bank analysts expect that the hypothesis of a slower decline in the Selic rate and the appreciation of the dollar against the real will return to the discussion in the first-quarter earnings season, which began last week.

That will be a barometer of how companies are dealing with the two topics. The issue has already been mentioned in the first earnings report by a publicly traded company, released on Thursday (18) by machine maker Romi.

Asked about the change in the interest rates and dollar scenario after the postponement of the fiscal target, CEO Luiz Cassiano Rosolen said the increase in the Selic would have a direct impact on Romi’s customer’s mood.

The executive also pointed out that, in a scenario of timid investments in the sector, the company’s machine rental business is growing. The operation was launched after the pandemic, in 2020. “When our customers are not comfortable investing in acquiring machines, they have the option of renting,” he said. Machine rental orders rose 129% from January to March, compared to 2023. Last year, the increase was 34%.

This debate is expected to gain ground among analysts and companies in segments that are mostly dependent on credit and sensitive to variations in confidence—such as consumer industries and electronics and technology retailers.

*Por Adriana Mattos — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Pharma investments blocked by health regulator’s lack of analysts

ANVISA has about R$6bn in new drugs waiting for analysis and another R$11bn under consideration

04/22/2024

Ricardo Cappelli — Foto: Gesival Nogueira Kebec/Valor

Ricardo Cappelli — Foto: Gesival Nogueira Kebec/Valor

The pharmaceutical industry has nearly R$6 billion in potential investments pending analysis by the National Health Surveillance Agency (ANVISA). Another R$11 billion is being analyzed, but there has been no response so far.

The survey was carried out by Grupo FarmaBrasil, the trade association representing companies in the sector. The calculation took into account two factors: requests for approval of medications under review or halted, and the average market value for each category of products.

By categories, R$9.4 billion of the drugs under analysis or awaiting analysis are biological, R$4.1 billion are new and innovative, R$4 billion are generics, R$205 million are non-synthetic, and R$31 million are herbal medicines.

Brazilian Development Bank President Aloizio Mercadante was the first to draw public attention to the issue in February. At the time, he suggested hiring reviewers to speed up the evaluation process. “There are R$17 billion in investments in ANVISA,” he said at the inauguration ceremony of the president of the Brazilian Agency for Industrial Development (ABDI), Ricardo Cappelli. At the time, Mr. Cappelli also advocated greater “efficiency” of regulatory agencies “to leverage private investments in Brazil.”

Measures such as expanding the number of ANVISA employees are necessary to “generate a workflow and regular approval” of medicines in order to offer “predictability” to the industry, said Adriana Diaféria, vice president of FarmaBrasil. She said the federal government “is committed to strengthening research, technological development, and innovation in the country.” She also sees the public test announced to hire 50 specialists in health regulation and surveillance by ANVISA as positive. “But it’s not enough to meet all demands,” she said.

In a note, ANVISA also attributes the sluggishness to the lack of employees. “The long queue periods to which drug candidates are submitted in the country are not the result of inertia of the agency’s managers and employees, but of the number of workers incompatible with the size of the Brazilian drug market,” the regulator said, highlighting “the drug development and manufacturing capacity of the companies operating in the country.”

ANVISA said that between 2007 and 2023, the number of employees fell to 1,491 from 2,360. Of this group, only 187 work to approve or not drugs. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has 6,815 “employees with regulatory and authorization skills,” according to ANVISA. Thus, the average time for drug approval is 776 days in Brazil, compared to 245 days in the U.S. The Brazilian queue is also longer than in Japan and Canada (301 days) and Australia (350 days).

Despite the insufficient number of servers, ANVISA “has been adopting mechanisms” to accelerate approvals, “maintaining the international standard of quality, effectiveness, and safety verification.” Among the measures, it highlights the use of agency evaluations “with standards and regulatory practices equivalent” to those of ANVISA; joint evaluation with foreign agencies; and implementation of the company’s pre-qualification program, a model similar to that of the Federal Revenue’s Authorized Economic Operator.

In a statement, the Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services highlighted that the government will hire 50 specialists in health regulation and surveillance. In addition, at the end of last year, the ministry started a debate with “the workers of the regulatory agencies, including ANVISA, as part of the negotiation process to handle specific demands of the category.”

*Por Estevão Taiar — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Brazilian banks embrace generative AI technology

Federation of banks survey shows growing adoption to enhance efficiency in more than half of institutions

04/19/2024

Sergio Biagini — Foto: Divulgação

Sergio Biagini — Foto: Divulgação

The Febraban 2024 Banking Technology Survey, conducted by consulting firm Deloitte at the request of the Brazilian Federation of Banks, shows that 96% of banks have artificial intelligence technologies, and 54% say they already use generative AI (GenIA). According to the study, GenIA is highly adaptable and customizable to the specific business needs of each institution.

While traditional AI only copies, imitates, or reproduces something that already exists or has been done, GenIA can create new and original content based on what it has learned.

“This technology has the potential to drive innovation and productivity, as well as promote efficiency. The research indicated that for banks that have already implemented AI, the efficiency of banking processes has increased at an average rate of 11%,” said Sergio Biagini, Deloitte’s lead partner for the financial services industry.

Among the AI applications used by banks are facial biometrics (75%), chatbots (71%), robotic process automation (67%), GenIA (54%), and cognitive intelligence (25%).

“With the need to seek an increasingly relevant position towards differentiation, banks can use the Open Finance movement to expand data and knowledge about their customers. With the use of technologies such as AI and GenIA, information can be explored more efficiently and accurately to personalize customer relationships,” said Mr. Biagini.

The study points out that, like any other type of technology, GenIA has some limitations, which can be considered challenging, such as hallucination (creating responses with full conviction but not based on its training data); biases (inherited from its training data); lack of logical reasoning (based on statistical characteristics, which does not allow human logical reasoning); and contextual limitation (composed of a finite combination of words and contexts, which limits the generated results).

“Banks are leading adopters of generative AI, especially in customer service processes and developer support, which has allowed an improvement in the efficiency of banking processes,” the research points out. The efficiency increase brought by AI is estimated at 11%. In the back office, this index is even higher, at 17%.

Concerning expectations of the adoption of the Open Finance initiative, banks continue to work to offer new products and services related to the ecosystem and aim to achieve a 6% to 20% adherence rate from their active base by the end of 2024.

*Por Álvaro Campos — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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How Brazil is using AI to scan valuable trees in the Amazon

State-run Agricultural Research Corporation EMBRAPA will launch algorithms that help create sustainable management projects

04/19/2024

Data collection in the field: with EMBRAPA’s help, the cost of a typical survey has dropped from R$140 to as low as R$4 per hectare — Foto: Felipe Sá/Divulgação

Data collection in the field: with EMBRAPA’s help, the cost of a typical survey has dropped from R$140 to as low as R$4 per hectare — Foto: Felipe Sá/Divulgação

An artificial intelligence tool is aiding in the identification of commercially valuable trees and pinpointing their exact location in the forest. Species such as Brazil nut, cumaru-ferro, açaí, and cedar are recognized with an accuracy rate of 95%, reducing production costs and promoting more sustainable forest management practices in the Amazon.

Netflora, a methodology developed by the state-run Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), encompasses a set of algorithms trained with artificial intelligence to recognize forest species based on botanical characteristics available in a database. The methodology is targeted towards companies in the forestry sector, academic professionals, agro-extractivist associations, and environmental agencies.

Evandro Orfanó, an EMBRAPA researcher who co-heads these studies, Netflora automates forest activity planning and enhances the precision and efficiency of management plans. “Once trained and specialized, the algorithm also provides metrics such as diameter and canopy area, which enable the estimation of each tree’s wood volume through allometric equations (which relate to shapes and sizes),” he said.

EMBRAPA’s research to enable the use of AI in the forestry sector began in 2015 and covers several aspects of the activity. In the current phase, studies are conducted under the Geoflora project, implemented in the states of Acre, Rondônia, Roraima, Amapá, Pará, and Amazonas, in collaboration with the JBS Fund for the Amazon.

The adoption of these technologies requires investments in computers, drones, batteries, and suitable office infrastructure. According to Mr. Orfanó, the drastic reduction in production costs, especially in the forest inventory stage, offsets these expenses.

The cost of a traditional species survey with field teams ranges between R$100 and R$140 per hectare of mapped forest. In the Netflora methodology, the expense is between R$4 and R$6 per hectare.

This significant difference is due to the agility in obtaining and processing information. “A forestry company using traditional management can map up to 10,000 hectares of forest per year. With the use of AI, operational capacity can increase to up to 1 million hectares in the same period,” Mr. Orfanó added.

To build the algorithm’s “training” database, drones mapped over 40,000 hectares of forest in 37 areas of Acre, Rondônia, and the southern Amazon. Over two years of study, researchers conducted around a thousand flight plans, each generating about 300 aerial images. These images underwent processing and were transformed into orthophotos (georeferenced and high-resolution images). The information from orthophotos was used to train nine algorithms, each with different purposes and performance levels.

“We have algorithms that recognize a single forest species, while others can identify different groups or the main timber and non-timber trees of Acre and other locations in the Amazon. Some algorithms have already achieved high performance, but this learning will be continuous,” said Mr. Orfanó. EMBRAPA aims to map 80,000 hectares and include new areas of commercial interest in the Amazon to expand the database.

The state-run company will launch the first two algorithms that have undergone the refinement phase next Wednesday. One of them can recognize “açaí solteiro” palms in productive (with clusters) and non-productive phases in Acre. The other, in addition to single-stem açaí, can recognize nine other palm species from the Amazon (paxiúba, buriti, jaci, ouricuri, murmuru, tucumã, inajá, patauá, and bacaba).

The launch of the other seven algorithms is expected to take place by February 2025. The list includes algorithms that identify timber and non-timber species in different Amazonian locations, as well as versions intended for environmental monitoring and species recognition in agroforestry systems.

Forest Engineer Mauro Alessandro Karasinski, a doctoral student at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR) and a member of the Netflora creation team, said that the algorithm learns tree canopy patterns and organizes this information to recognize features in images of newly mapped areas. “As a result of learning, a ‘shapefile’ [file with identification and location of each species and indication of certainty level] allows for the preparation of the forest inventory, providing information on the number of existing trees, divided by class or genus, and other data on the species and the mapped area,” he said.

*Por Marcelo Beledeli — Porto Alegre

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Lactalis aims to increase market dominance in Brazil

After integrating the DPA operation, the group will invest in higher value-added lines

04/19/2024

Emmanuel Besnier — Foto: Gilson de Souza/IDT

Emmanuel Besnier — Foto: Gilson de Souza/IDT

Lactalis, the world’s largest dairy company, plans to consolidate its leadership in Brazil, targeting a market share of 15% by 2028—up from 11% last year. In the short term, the French company will focus on integrating the operations of DPA Brasil, a venture created by Fonterra and Nestlé. The R$700 million deal, completed in December 2023 after receiving approval from Brazil’s Administrative Council of Economic Defense (CADE), marks a significant step.

The company aims to increase its milk processing volume from 2.5 billion to 3.5 billion liters per year by 2028. In terms of dairy sales, Lactalis seeks to boost its market share from 13% in 2023 to 20% within five years.

“We see significant growth potential for our group in Brazil. Therefore, we are investing substantially in Brazil compared to its current contribution to our overall revenue, emphasizing its importance as a priority market for us,” Lactalis CEO Emmanuel Besnier told Valor. On Tuesday (17), the executive visited the operations of Itambé, which belongs to the group, accompanied by French journalists.

Lactalis has operated in Brazil for 10 years, investing €1.3 billion in acquisitions and €300 million in enhancing milk productivity, quality, and product development. The company owns 16 brands in the country, including Elegê, Itambé, Cotochés, Parmalat, and Batavo. Last year, sales totaled €2.5 billion.

Currently, the Brazilian operation accounts for nearly 10% of the group’s global revenue, according to Lactalis CEO in Brazil, Patrick Sauvageot. In 2023, Brazil was the fifth largest market for Lactalis, trailing behind France, the United States, Canada, and Italy. In the first quarter of 2024, Brazil surpassed Italy in sales.

For 2024, Lactalis’s priority is to integrate the DPA operation properly. “We’re going to keep the company independent but look for synergies with the group’s other activities,” said Mr. Besnier. The acquisition adds the Chandelle, Chamyto, and Chambinho brands to Lactalis’s portfolio, along with the rights to use the Nestlé brand on refrigerated products. DPA has two factories, in Garanhuns (state of Pernambuco) and Araras (state of São Paulo), eight distribution centers, and employs 1,300 people. In 2023, the operation generated net sales of €361 million.

To gain long-term market share in Brazil, Lactalis has focused on creating higher value-added products. “Brazil is a big commodity market. It sells a lot of UHT milk and cheese groups that offer very low profitability,” said Mr. Besnier. The company plans to expand its range of fine cheeses, yogurts, and other dairy products with higher added value.

Mr. Sauvageot noted that Lactalis had also felt the impact of increased imports of powdered milk from Argentina and Uruguay into Brazil and the consequent drop in dairy prices. “We think that the whole chain needs the government’s help to ensure the improvement of the competitiveness of dairy production in the country,” he said.

Lactalis and other industry players, including cooperatives, recently proposed that the federal government increase the refund rate for PIS and Cofins—taxes on business revenue funding social security and healthcare—from 50% to 100%. In exchange, the industrial companies would boost the percentage of credits earmarked for investments in productivity improvements from 5% to 10%. He estimates that this would raise investments from R$110 million to R$440 million per year, on average. He explained that since the 2015 implementation of a rule allowing PIS and Cofins tax credits to be returned in exchange for investments, industries have launched over 1,800 projects. These projects represent investments exceeding R$900 million and have benefited more than 168,000 producers.

*Por Cibelle Bouças — Belo Horizonte

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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Brazil faces tougher challenges than other emerging markets in 2024

Increased fiscal uncertainty, significant company devaluations, instances of government interference, and rising U.S. interest rates are contributing to a challenging stock market environment in Brazil

04/19/2024

Thalles Franco — Foto: Silvia Costanti/Valor

Thalles Franco — Foto: Silvia Costanti/Valor

Brazilian stocks have experienced steeper declines than those of other major emerging markets this year, signaling that domestic challenges play a substantial role in the underperformance of local equities.

According to a Valor Data survey using MSCI stock indices—which measure the performance of stock exchanges across various countries and regions—Brazil’s stock market has seen a decrease of 14.89% in 2024. In contrast, the average for emerging markets has only dropped by 0.5%, while the global average has actually increased by 3.5%. These comparisons are denominated in U.S. dollars, highlighting that the recent appreciation of the American currency against the Brazilian real has further exacerbated the poor performance of Brazil’s index.

Several domestic issues distinguish Brazil from its peers, including fiscal uncertainty following the adjustment of next year’s fiscal targets, struggles with key stocks such as Vale on the local exchange, and the volatility spurred by governmental attempts to meddle in the affairs of domestic companies.

On a global scale, the anticipation of a more restrained U.S. monetary policy has impacted equities worldwide. Brazil, where foreign capital had been more heavily invested prior to changes in the U.S. economic outlook, has felt the pinch acutely, suffering from a more pronounced outflow of funds.

According to J.P. Morgan, the significant underperformance of variable income in Brazil this year can be primarily attributed to a sharp decline in Vale shares, persistently high interest rates, and a substantial devaluation of the real.

The bank’s report highlights that Vale has been a major contributor to Ibovespa’s—Brazil’s benchmark stock index—losses in 2024. “If Vale’s performance had remained stable this year, Brazil’s performance in local currency would only be 1% behind MEXBOL,” notes the bulletin from J.P. Morgan’s equity strategy team for Brazil and Latin America, headed by Emy Shayo Cherman. MEXBOL refers to the Mexican stock exchange.

Vale’s common shares, which make up 14.16% of the Ibovespa and 10.99% of the Brazilian MSCI, have fallen by 15.65% this year. This decline is largely due to the global decrease in iron ore prices despite some recent signs of recovery. For most of 2024, however, the price of the commodity has been on a downward trend. Additionally, the Brazilian government’s attempt to appoint former Finance Minister Guido Mantega as the CEO of Vale has introduced further volatility, according to local fund managers.

“The price dynamics of iron ore until last week were quite poor, significantly impacting Vale. Several factors have negatively impacted the company, including discussions involving the CEO and instances of government interference,” explains Thalles Franco, partner and manager at RPS Capital. “With Vale being such a pivotal component of the index, the stock’s downturn largely mirrors the overall performance of Brazil’s market.”

Managers are particularly concerned with the fiscal challenges that have resurfaced following the government’s recent revision of next year’s fiscal target from a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP to zero. “The fiscal dilemma has consistently been the weakest link in Brazil’s economic discussions. It surfaces repeatedly, manifesting with varying degrees of severity across different administrations. This recurring issue sets Brazil apart,” explains Eduardo Carlier, co-managing director at Azimut Brasil Wealth Management.

The adjusted fiscal target has recently prompted a rise in future interest rates, casting a shadow over the stock market. This increase places downward pressure on stocks linked to local consumption and heavily indebted companies while simultaneously boosting the appeal of fixed-income investments over variable-income investments in the country. “The balance still favors fixed income over riskier assets. Brazil needs to redirect local financial flows to make the stock market seem more enticing. However, periodic debates over fiscal policies hinder this; they obscure the market’s trajectory,” Mr. Carlier notes.

Additionally, there has been a notable retreat of foreign investors from the Brazilian stock market. Data from B3, the Brazilian stock exchange, reveals that this year, sales of shares by non-residents have outstripped purchases by R$27.39 billion. Meanwhile, global stock markets, including Brazil’s, are feeling the impact of shifting expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve. Robust economic indicators from the United States are postponing any anticipated reductions in interest rates, posing challenges for global stocks. The exception has been the U.S. stock market, which continues to draw support from robust performances in the technology sector.

Welliam Wang, head of equities at AZ Quest, noted a shift in market expectations regarding disinflation in the United States. “Initially, the market anticipated a scenario where the U.S. could achieve disinflation without major sacrifices. Now, it appears we are moving toward a situation where, as the textbooks say, sacrifices are necessary,” Mr. Wang explained. Initially, Fed funds futures at the start of the year hinted at the beginning of monetary easing in March. However, current forecasts have adjusted this expectation to September.

Mr. Wang added, “With the U.S. entering an election period in September, the likelihood of interest rate cuts could further diminish, depending on the electoral frontrunner. The market perceives former President Donald Trump, who is seeking reelection, as potentially more inflationary due to his proposals to increase tariffs on China and restrict immigration, thereby reducing the labor force in the U.S.”

Thalles Franco, from RPS, highlighted how external movements have affected Brazil’s stock market. “Foreigners had significantly increased their investments in Brazilian stocks at the end of last year, drawn by attractive pricing. However, as U.S. interest rates began to divert investment flows away from emerging markets, Brazil, having seen substantial foreign investment, was particularly hard hit. The retraction of these funds around the turn of the year has been a major factor in Brazil’s underperformance,” he remarked.

In the final two months of 2023, non-residents injected a net R$38.49 billion into Brazilian stocks, accounting for the majority of the net R$44.85 billion that flowed into the country’s equity market throughout the entire year.

J.P. Morgan suggests that conservative expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s actions may curb significant capital flows into the Brazilian stock market, even as U.S. interest rates begin to decline. The firm questions the impact of the Fed’s cautious stance: “Will a more restrained approach by the Fed be sufficient to support ‘high-beta trades’ [potentially higher returns] like those in Brazil? It might, eventually, but the potential gains from such a scenario are now less compelling than they were prior to the Fed’s temperance,” according to the report.

*Por Augusto Decker — São Paulo

Source: Valor Inernational

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Privatization of Sabesp will be carried out in two stages

The first step is to choose potential primary shareholders

04/18/2024

Natalia Resende — Foto: Silvia Costanti/Valor

Natalia Resende — Foto: Silvia Costanti/Valor

The São Paulo state government released on Wednesday (17) information on the model for the privatization of water utility Sabesp. However, some points are yet to be defined. The plan is that the offer will occur in two stages. First, a competitive process will be carried out between groups with the potential to be the primary shareholder, holding 15% of the company and having greater control over management. At this stage, the two groups offering the highest prices will be selected. In the following stage—which will be part of the same process, but not necessarily will take place on the same day—there will be a dispute between the two groups previously selected. In this stage, other investors will choose the winner.

In this second stage, two book-building processes will be carried out with the broad market, meaning that investment intentions will be collected for each of the potential primary shareholders. In the dispute, the bookbuilding with the highest total value will be the winner. However, detailed rules for this selection are yet to be defined as there should be a combination of criteria between price and volume. If there is a potential primary shareholder who, in the market’s view, is more qualified to lead the company, this group will have an advantage in the competition.

More detailed information about the model of the offer will be disclosed in the coming weeks. It remains unclear, for example, whether the price paid by the primary shareholder will be equal to the value of shares acquired by the broader market. According to people familiar with the matter, this possibility is currently being studied, but it hinges on legal and regulatory analyses.

The Sabesp privatization model was unveiled to the press by Natalia Resende, São Paulo’s secretary of environment, infrastructure, and logistics.

The concept of having a primary shareholder was introduced by the state government to ensure that the sanitation company will have a partner with a longer-term vision and the capacity to carry out the necessary changes in the company’s management following the privatization.

This primary shareholder should comply with a lock-up period of up to five years, in which the acquired shares cannot be sold and the universalization of services must be implemented.

After that period, the primary shareholder will be allowed to sell the shares but the government included a rule to try to keep the group in the company. If this partner reduces its stake to less than 10%, the shareholders’ agreement—to be signed with the government to set the governance rules—will be terminated. The terms of the shareholders’ agreement will be finalized before the offering.

The issue of governance involving future partners is regarded as crucial for potential primary shareholders, who want to learn what type of control mechanisms they will have. Several groups are mentioned as potential primary shareholders, including Equatorial, Aegea, Cosan, Votorantim, Veolia, and IG4 Capital, among others. However, they await the definition of governance, which will be central to the decision.

On Wednesday (17), an important step was taken in the process. The São Paulo City Council approved, in the first vote, the bill for the company’s privatization. The proposal allows the maintenance of the municipal government’s contract with the company after privatization. The project had 36 votes in favor and 18 against in the first vote. The City Council will hold public hearings until the end of the month, before the second and final vote. The date for the final vote has not been scheduled.

*Por Taís Hirata, Cristiane Agostine — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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