With Chinese automakers, electrification outpaces forecasts

The pace is brisk. The number of Chinese car brands operating in Brazil rose from four in 2024 to 11 in 2025 and reached 14 by year-end. There are also two truck makers—Foton, already established, and JAC, just starting sales. Through November 2025, while Brazil’s overall vehicle market grew just 1.4%, sales by Chinese brands jumped 53%, according to the National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA). Over the same period, sales of hybrids and electric vehicles—a Chinese specialty—rose 57%.

“There is no doubt about the impact. The Chinese, who once lacked a quality image, have quickly won over the market. This industry has gone from technology follower to technology leader, a symbol of quality and modernity that also offers better value for money. It’s a revolution,” noted Rogelio Golfarb, consultant and former president of ANFAVEA.

At first, it appeared that the strategy was to tap the potential of Brazil’s market—the world’s sixth largest—for exports. That changed when GWM and BYD opened factories in 2025. What now draws attention are partnerships with automakers already operating in the country. Without laying a single brick, two Chinese brands are set to begin local production this year.

By acquiring 26.5% of Renault do Brasil, Geely will be able to use not only the plant in São José dos Pinhais (Paraná) but also the French automaker’s dealer network and after-sales structure. Another alliance—this one global—between Stellantis and Leapmotor will allow the Chinese brand to run a production line at Stellantis’ factory in Goiana (Pernambuco).

Joining forces with what initially seemed like an enemy will benefit both sides. “They come in with new platforms [for electrified vehicles], and we bring the factory,” said Renault CEO Fabrice Cambolive.

Antonio Filosa, Stellantis’ CEO, explained the rationale behind the alliance: “Over the past 20 years, China has worked with a long-term, visionary and consistent approach to build the ecosystem needed to make competitive, affordable electric vehicles.”

Filosa attributed this success to China’s industrial policies that “encouraged automakers and suppliers to invest in this type of technology.” “The private sector responded and built technological capability,” he said.

According to Golfarb, Chinese companies saw Brazil’s idle industrial capacity—estimated at up to 45%—as an opportunity to produce at lower costs. Renault’s plant has an annual capacity of 400,000 units, but currently operates at about half that level. For Cambolive, the partnership with Geely will help fill the gap.

“The global automotive industry is watching what the Chinese are doing in Brazil,” Golfarb said. In his view, Brazil serves as a “laboratory” for them. “The goal has always been international expansion, whether in making sneakers, ships, or cars.”

The Chinese wave has also introduced another manufacturing model. Through its partnership with SAIC and Wuling in China (SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile), General Motors began, in December, local production of EVs that it had previously imported from China.

The new production line, however, will not be located at any of the three plants GM operates in Brazil. It will be outsourced. The electric Spark and Captiva models will be built at PACE (Planta Automotiva do Ceará), in Horizonte (Ceará), a facility that once housed Troller, formerly owned by Ford. Located in a region that benefits from tax incentives, the plant was acquired by Comexport, a Brazilian group planning to manufacture a range of electrified vehicle brands.

Rising sales and the arrival of new Chinese players have pushed Brazil’s market to an electrification level that exceeds projections. According to Ricardo Bastos, president of the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (ABVE), the association had estimated that hybrids and electric vehicles would account for 10% of domestic sales by 2027. That threshold was reached earlier, at 10.7%, as of November 2025.

Several factors support further growth. One is the expansion of charging infrastructure. Although still insufficient and nearly nonexistent in rural areas, the number of public charging points, largely installed by private companies, is increasing.

Over two years, the number of charging points jumped from 3,800 to 16,800, according to ABVE. In addition, faster chargers are being introduced regularly.

Brazilian multinational WEG has launched an ultrafast 640-kW charger capable of serving four vehicles simultaneously and, according to company president Alberto Kuba, “charging the battery of an electric Porsche in under half an hour.”

The next step, Kuba said, is integrating the car with the home. Another WEG system allows electricity to be stored in the car’s battery during off-peak hours and later “discharged” to supply the home during peak periods, when power costs are higher.

Another factor supporting the advance of electromobility is the imminent conclusion of a debate over charging safety in residential garages. After a lengthy controversy sparked by concerns raised by the Fire Department, São Paulo’s state legislature approved a bill in recent days regulating the installation of charging points in multifamily-housing.

São Paulo’s initiative, which sets guidelines for safe installations, is expected to be followed by other states. It puts an end to uncertainty that had stalled the construction sector and is likely to cool disputes within multifamily-housing. According to William Esper, president of the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards (ABNT), the organization will launch awareness campaigns for building managers and insurance companies. ABNT has also issued recommendations for professionals who work on the maintenance of electric and hybrid vehicles.

Electromobility is also advancing in fleets operated by rental companies, taxis, and vehicles for persons with disabilities (PwD). Vehicles sold under these categories are tax-exempt, provided they are produced locally. With its factory in Camaçari (Bahia), BYD has been able to enter the direct-sales segment, said Pablo Toledo, the company’s chief communications and marketing officer. Prices for the Dolphin Mini, sold at retail for R$119,900, drop to R$107,000 for fleet buyers, R$99,900 for PwD customers, and R$ 98,500 for taxi drivers.

In partnership with BYD, EPR Triângulo—the concessionaire that operates nine highways in the Triângulo Mineiro region—has electrified 100% of its passenger vehicle fleet used for road monitoring and administrative activities.

This year is also likely to mark the rise of so-called mild hybrids, a segment in which legacy automakers are investing. ABVE does not include this category in its sales tally because, in mild hybrids, the electric motor does not drive the vehicle. Combined with the internal combustion engine, however, it improves fuel efficiency and reduces emissions. ANFAVEA considers this type of vehicle important for decarbonizing transportation, especially when fueled with ethanol.

Mild hybrids are expected to become the economy car of the electromobility era. “It’s an important step for entry-level vehicles,” said Ciro Possobom, president of Volkswagen do Brasil. For Herlander Zola, president of Stellantis South America—the first of the legacy automakers to launch ethanol-powered mild hybrids—sales of hybrids will surpass those of purely combustion-engine cars within five years.

That view is shared by analysts. “We believe in the strength of combining mild hybrids with ethanol, which, in addition to being lower cost, can reduce emissions more than electric vehicles when the production phase is taken into account,” said Masao Ukon, partner and managing director at Boston Consulting Group (BCG). According to Ukon, from now on, sales of electrified vehicles will consistently grow faster than the overall market.

The total number of hybrids and electric vehicles sold in 2025 will be released this week. Preliminary estimates point to between 265,000 and 270,000 units, including all vehicles with some level of electrification.

Cassio Pagliarini, a former industry executive and now a consultant at Bright Consulting, estimates that EV sales will exceed 400,000 units in 2026. In his view, the biggest gains will come from mild hybrids and conventional hybrids, which “have lower costs, do not require charging infrastructure and offer a way to comply with the MOVER legislation” (a federal program in Brazil that provides tax incentives in exchange for meeting energy efficiency and emissions standards).