Survey of 394 non-financial companies shows growth in revenue and profit in last quarter of last year

04/08/2024

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Aline Cardoso — Foto: Carol Carquejeiro/Valor

Brazilian publicly traded companies had a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2023, with both profit and revenue growth compared to the previous year and the third quarter. This achievement was driven by companies focused on the domestic market and continued cost-cutting efforts, which offset the weakness in commodities. In the view of analysts, this positive trend opens up a perspective for strong performance throughout this year, especially for domestic companies. This optimism is bolstered by declining interest rates and rising consumer spending.

A survey by Valor Data of 394 non-financial companies shows that the net profit of this group of companies reached R$54.1 billion, a 12.6% increase compared to the previous year and 20.4% compared to September. Meanwhile, revenues reached R$913.5 billion between October and December, a 3.4% increase over the same period in 2022 and 4.9% compared to the third quarter. These figures exclude Petrobras and Vale due to their size, to avoid distorting the results, as well as companies that have recently undergone court-supervised reorganization, such as Oi, Light, and Paranapanema, whose numbers significantly vary year-over-year.

Despite the improvement, analysts interviewed by Valor considered the fourth-quarter results “neutral,” meaning there were no major surprises and mostly fell within the market’s expectations for the quarter.

Companies operating in the domestic market had a more positive performance than those exporting commodities, which were affected by falling prices and the fact that the exchange rate remained around R$4.8 per dollar.

“In aggregate, the results were only 4% below what we expected, which we consider neutral performance,” said Aline Cardoso, head of Brazil equity strategy at Santander. “Still, we had a quarter in which company profits grew on average by 3%, compared to a 20% decline in the third quarter.”

“The quarter was slightly worse than we expected, especially in EBITDA and profit, but undeniably, it was a very strong performance in year-over-year comparison,” said Carlos Eduardo Sequeira, head of research at BTG Pactual. He highlighted the performance of companies operating in the domestic sector, supported by better economic performance during the period.

The energy, sanitation, and telecommunications sectors, in general, surpassed expectations. In the energy sector, increased demand for electricity and higher prices, driven by higher temperatures, boosted results during the last three months of the year.

Meanwhile, telecommunications companies, especially Telecom Italia’s TIM and Telefónica’s subsidiary, took advantage of a more “rational” competitive environment—with less aggressive offers—and passed on price increases above inflation to customers. Reductions in investments also resulted in a significant margin increase and robust cash generation.

Overall, what caught analysts’ attention was the improvement in efficiency that domestic companies demonstrated in the fourth quarter, with margin expansion and robust cash generation thanks to initiatives taken in recent years. “In a more challenging environment, companies needed to pursue greater efficiency in profit margins,” said Mr. Sequeira.

According to Bank of America (BofA), which considers 79 companies composing the benchmark stock index Ibovespa, including financial companies, earnings per share fell by 13%. In contrast, EBITDA decreased by 3%, and revenues remained stable on a year-over-year basis. Compared to the third quarter, earnings per share fell by 1% for the year, EBITDA rose by 15%, and sales fell by 6%.

Excluding effects from energy and commodity companies, notably Petrobras and Vale, earnings per share grew by 21% in the fourth quarter, compared to the same period in 2022, with EBITDA also rising by 21%, and revenues of the 79 surveyed companies increasing by 5%. Compared to the third quarter, earnings per share remained stable, while EBITDA increased by 9%, and company sales increased by 6%.

Commodity-related companies had weak results as expected due to falling prices, resulting in reduced profits. According to BTG’s survey, commodity companies experienced a 7.2% decline in revenues and a 22.7% decline in net profit, on a year-over-year basis. According to Santander, results ended up slightly better due to a smaller-than-expected decline in prices.

Both oil and pulp experienced lower prices during the fourth quarter, with Brent crude falling by 7% during the period, averaging $83, while pulp traded in China saw a 29% reduction in prices, to $615 per tonne, due to macroeconomic uncertainties worldwide.

Meanwhile, iron ore maintained high levels, with supply-side issues, but steel mills had low utilization rates, and steel prices remained under pressure.

Overall, expectations for the year seem more optimistic. An analysis by Santander of earnings conference call transcripts during the first quarter shows a significant increase in the use of the word “recovery” and fewer mentions of inflation and default, indicating that companies anticipate a better environment in 2024—which could mean improved profit margins throughout the year.

“We expect that the economic recovery, real wage gains, and lower unemployment should have positive effects on consumer sectors during the first quarter,” said the head of research at BTG. “It won’t be a spectacularly stronger season, but the trend of improvement is expected to continue,” he said. He added that much of the improvement will come from lower interest rates, reducing pressure on financial expenses.

*Por Felipe Laurence, Victor Meneses — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/