Local investors expected to gain ground in 2024 amid capital market reaction

02/16/2024

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Daniel Wainstein — Foto: Carol Carquejeiro/Valor

The share of foreign capital in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Brazil increased last year, reaching the highest percentage in at least seven years.

In 2023, cross-border transactions accounted for 50.1% of a total of 371 operations, according to a survey carried out by Seneca Evercore for Valor. In the second half of the year alone, the share was 54.5%—out of a total of 156 operations—the highest half-yearly proportion since 2016. According to the study, since 2014 there have been 5,061 M&A deals in Brazil, 47% of which involved foreign buyers.

Investment bankers point out that the larger share reflects an improvement in Brazil’s risk perception, especially when compared to its emerging peers, which has also resulted in a greater number of mandates in the first weeks this year.

The trend should continue in 2024, although Brazilian buyers are also expected to show more strength this year, driven by a more functional capital market and the return of initial public offerings.

“We believe that, based on what we observe in the market and our own pipeline, the first half of 2024 will be even stronger than the last half of 2023 and should reveal even greater predominance of international investors,” said Daniel Wainstein, a partner at Seneca Evercore.

According to the executive, the increased participation of foreigners in M&A deals in the country is a consequence of the improvement in Brazil’s risk perception after the fall seen last year. “That is combined with a relatively low unemployment rate, inflation under control so far, a decrease in Brazilian interest rates and a downward trend in the U.S. likewise, and Ibovespa [Brazil’s benchmark stock index] at record highs,” he notes.

According to Dealogic, a consultancy that tracks financial market data worldwide, the same trend is observed in an analysis by financial volume. Last year, of a total of $37.9 billion in transactions, $17.8 billion came from cross-border operations, or some 47%, the largest share over the recent years.

The strength observed last year was driven by large-scale operations, such as the sale of shares of Vale’s base-metals unit, AESOP, and The Body Shop, the last two carried out by Natura as part of its business restructuring. In all three cases, the operations occurred largely abroad, but are included in the local M&A volume as they involve domestic companies.

The same trend has been observed in the investment bank sector, with foreign investors actively seeking assets in Brazil. “At the beginning of the year, we saw foreign investors interested in learning about transactions in Brazil, including the Arab and Chinese. But we have mandates at both ends, not only from foreigners wanting to invest in Brazil, but also from foreign companies leaving the country due to strategic decision,” said Leonardo Cabral, head of Santander’s investment bank in Brazil.

Fabio Medeiros, the head of Morgan Stanley’s investment bank in the country, points out that the participation of foreign investors last year is even clearer in transactions worth more than $100 million. In this section, 70% of the total were cross-border transactions. “It is the highest number since official records began, and the same as in 2016,” he said. According to the executive, that can be explained by Brazil’s attractiveness compared to its emerging peers. “Each country has its own challenges. We have our own, but they don’t scare foreigners so much.”

For this year, Mr. Medeiros believes that local transactions will gain traction again and will share the M&A pie with the foreign capital. Such expectation is also based on the forecast of improvement in the capital market in Brazil, with the expected return of IPOs in the local market. IPOs help fuel companies’ cash, boosting their interest in acquisitions.

Diogo Aragão, Brazil head of M&A at Bank of America, says the capital market is more functional this year, not only for equity, but also for local and international debt, which helps take operations off the drawing board. “The scenario has made companies feel more comfortable in starting a transaction,” he notes. According to him, new transactions are arriving at the negotiation table, while others, previously on hold, are taking up again.

“When you look abroad, Brazil is well positioned. Falling interest rates and stability in the exchange rate and in the political scenario create conditions for investors to take the country more seriously,” the BofA executive said.

Roderick Greenlees, global head of investment banking at Itaú BBA, says that, in general, operations involving foreign capital are large and have a long-term horizon. According to him, several conversations are underway, with new mandates at the beginning of the year, including the participation of foreign investors.

*Por Fernanda Guimarães — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/