As major retail groups face a series of debt renegotiations, new figures point to a pronounced slowdown across the sector.

The companies ranked among Brazil’s 300 largest retailers posted combined sales of R$1.3 trillion in 2025. Among the 227 chains with comparable data for the past two years—those included in both the 2024 and 2025 surveys—sales rose 8.6% to R$1.1 trillion, twice the 4.26% inflation rate measured by the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) compiled by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The 8.6% nominal increase, however, was the smallest annual gain since 2018, when sales rose 7.9%. The net balance of stores in Brazil—openings minus closures—was also the lowest since 2020.

Adjusted for inflation, sales grew 4.3%, more than twice the rate recorded by IBGE’s national retail survey. Even so, that was the slowest growth pace since 2021, during the pandemic.

The figures come from the “Top 300 Brazilian Retailers 2026” survey, prepared by the Retail Think Tank Institute (IRTT) and published by Valor for the past 10 years in partnership with the institute’s founders, Alberto Serrentino, Eduardo Terra, and Helio Biagi.

The survey also shows that 282 chains with comparable data for the past two years posted a net gain of 2,474 stores last year, taking openings and closures into account. That was the smallest net increase in the past five years.

In 2020, retailers closed stores as lockdowns were imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, producing the study’s lowest net gain, at 163 stores.

“We don’t see a crisis in the sector, but a slowdown in activity. Retail is feeling the effects of the Brazilian economy; there’s no way to separate the two. There are cyclical factors, such as rising public debt and high interest rates, as well as additional factors, such as the expansion of sports betting with cuts in essential spending to pay for gambling,” Serrentino said.

“Those that outperform the average tend to have low leverage, a solid capital structure and discipline in executing projects, allowing them to maintain certain investments even in an uncertain environment,” he said.

The figures also highlight the strength of regional retailers, with chains in the middle of the ranking expanding faster. Historically, these companies have tended to grow with low leverage and their own capital during periods of high interest rates.

At the same time, the five largest retail companies have barely changed their share of total sector sales over the past five years. The group accounted for 13.3% of total retail sales in 2025, compared with 13.1% in 2020. In 2024, the share was 13.5%, meaning it actually declined slightly last year.

The five companies are, in order, Grupo Carrefour, Assaí, RD Saúde (Raia Drogasil), Magazine Luiza, and Grupo Boticário.

The 50 largest retailers, however, including strong regional players, increased their combined share from 33.5% to 35.7% over five years. Among the 100 largest, the share rose from 39.7% to 42.4%.

At the same time, the share of chains with stores in one to five states increased from 63.1% to 67.4% since 2020. More companies also expanded from a single state into two or three states, with the number of such chains rising from 37 to 41.

More groups also sought to establish a presence across Brazil, aiming to increase sales volume, strengthen their bargaining power with manufacturers and become more competitive. In 2025, 41 chains operated in all 27 states, compared with 38 retailers the previous year.

“The Brazilian market strengths include regional and family-run retailers. Concentration in our sector remains low and well below levels seen in other markets with similar or greater levels of maturity,” Terra said.

The 10 largest retailers accounted for 19% of Brazil’s retail market in 2025, compared with 57% in Mexico, 53% in the U.S., and 82% in Germany, according to the IRTT study. The figures underscore how fragmented Brazil’s retail market remains and how much room chains still have to grow.

Among regional chains that expanded into new markets last year, according to the Valor survey, was Lojas G, a Paraná-based home-goods retailer founded in 1996 in Maringá and now operating 70 stores nationwide. The chain invested R$20 million to open its first store in Espírito Santo state—its eighth state of operation—at the end of 2025. In the short term, it plans to open 10 stores in the region and invest R$200 million, according to the latest projection announced by management.

Another regional chain, Grupo Amma, opened the first store under its Amma Atacadista banner last year. Owned by the Zat family of Concórdia, in Santa Catarina state, the business was founded 40 years ago as a supermarket retailer under the Super Zat brand and has grown with low leverage and investments funded with its own capital. In the second half of this year, it plans to enter Paraná state with its first cash-and-carry store.

“They had already opened three cash-and-carry stores since last year and plan to have five by 2027, but in a controlled manner, spending just over R$20 million to R$25 million per store. They are a good example of the regional-retail mindset, focused on planned growth without taking excessive risks,” said a former executive who is now a retail consultant in Paraná.

The Brazilian retailer with the highest sales per store is Andorinha Hipercenter, which generated R$982 million in sales in 2025 at its single location in northern São Paulo.

The survey shows that only 25 chains operate more than 1,000 stores in Brazil, a country of continental dimensions where retailers face limited access to capital. “The explanation for this modest number [of 25 chains] lies in the companies’ development history, with restricted access to capital markets until they reach a certain scale,” Serrentino said.

“There are only 41 publicly traded companies among the 300 largest, and franchising ends up being a model that enables chains to expand,” he said.

For Terra, however, last year’s environment doesn’t yet fully reflect the downturns companies have faced in the consumer market in recent months, amid worsening household debt and delinquency.

“We have a more challenging international and domestic environment this year than in 2025, with greater uncertainty due to fluctuations in the dollar and oil prices, as well as higher inflation followed by some cooling. All this volatility creates a great deal of uncertainty around companies’ business plans. We’ll see the effects of these conditions in next year’s survey,” he said.

Among retail groups with annual sales above R$1 billion, there were 138 chains in 2020, compared with 206 last year.

Looking at the past decade, however, gives a clearer picture of the sector’s expansion. The number of chains with annual revenue above R$1 billion rose from 109 to 206, while the number generating more than R$10 billion jumped 250%, from eight to 28.

The survey found that 79 retailers reported having artificial intelligence (AI) projects underway—the first time the study has tracked this information. Another 35 groups said they were already developing sales initiatives using AI agents.

*By Adriana Mattos — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/