Polls predict strong right-wing momentum, re-election dominance, and a tight battle among major parties in key Brazilian capitals

10/04/2024

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If the polls hold true, this year’s municipal election in Brazil is shaping up around three central issues: the electoral rise of the right-wing, a strong trend toward re-election, and the dominance of four political parties: Brazil Union, Social Democratic Party (PSD), Progressive Party (PP), and Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB). The strength of the right is particularly noticeable in capitals and large cities, especially where the current mayor is politically weak with low pre-campaign approval ratings.

The surge of right-wing candidates is evident in cities like São Paulo, Belo Horizonte, and Fortaleza. In São Paulo and Belo Horizonte, the cities are governed by vice mayors who stepped up due to the death or resignation of the incumbent. Neither Ricardo Nunes (MDB) in São Paulo nor Fuad Noman (PSD) in Belo Horizonte had prior major political contest experience or significant political clout. In Fortaleza, José Sarto (Democratic Labor Party, PDT) faced poor management ratings and his party’s weakening due to internal rifts within the group once led by former Governor Ciro Gomes.

This situation has propelled candidates like Bruno Engler (Liberal Party, PL) in Belo Horizonte and André Fernandes in Fortaleza to the forefront. Pablo Marçal (Brazilian Labor Reconstruction Party, PRTB) is making significant strides in São Paulo. According to a Datafolha poll released on Thursday, Messrs. Nunes and Marçal are both at 24%, statistically tied with Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Freedom Party, PSOL), who stands at 26%. In Belo Horizonte, Mr. Engler shares the lead with Mauro Tramonte (Republicans) and Mr. Noman, all locked in an unprecedented three-way tie at 21%.

In capitals where the mayor is well-regarded and enjoys solid political backing, re-election appears likely. Eduardo Paes (PSD) in Rio de Janeiro is poised to potentially win in the first round by a narrow margin. João Campos (PSB) in Recife and Bruno Reis (Brazil Union) in Salvador are expected to secure re-election easily. Of the 21 incumbent capital mayors seeking another term, 10 are favorites to win outright on Sunday. Six are competitive for a runoff, and only five seem poised to miss the final round.

Researcher Antonio Lavareda from IPESPE (Institute for Social, Political and Economic Research) noted that the overarching issue of the election is normalcy, despite the potentially disruptive nature of the São Paulo race, the only contest that could impact the 2026 presidential election. Across the capitals, the pro-incumbent trend seen in 2020 continues, when only one of 13 eligible mayors—Marchezan Júnior in Porto Alegre—failed to reach a runoff.

The Brazilian electorate’s shift to the right has been growing since 2016 and solidified this year, not only in the mentioned capitals. Right-wing candidates are defined as those running under PL, PRTB, Brazil Union, PSD, PP, Avante, and Republicans, without alliances with left or center parties. This trend has now expanded, and by Thursday night, the right was leading in 16 capitals and could potentially win in up to 23.

This right-wing ascendancy is mirrored in other municipalities and, combined with the trend toward re-election, bolsters parties currently holding numerous city halls: PSD, Brazil Union, PP, and MDB. These parties are likely to elect more congresspersons in 2026, potentially joined by Republicans. These parties, which control the leadership of both the Senate and the Lower House, are often labeled as the “Centrão,” a cluster of center-to-right parties that has been part of every government since democratization—and a label they dislike.

The PL of former President Jair Bolsonaro is also expected to be among the election’s big winners, although it is not part of the “Centrão.” The party may not reach its goal of 1,000 mayors as set by its leadership, despite controlling the largest share of the government funds provided for the parties, but it should still strengthen its bargaining power for leadership succession support.

Mr. Marçal openly shares his presidential ambitions and has mentioned occasionally his intent to form a new party. Even if he doesn’t win in São Paulo, his local opponents believe he will have enough political capital to pursue this project. Former President Bolsonaro’s supporters went against his endorsement in eight capitals, including São Paulo. Mr. Bolsonaro is no longer the undisputed leader of the right and will lose control over this field if he remains ineligible in 2026.

And what about the left? The outlook is less promising, but expectations were already tempered. President Lula actively campaigned only in São Paulo. The Workers’ Party (PT) refrained from fielding candidates in several capitals, and President Lula’s supporters scattered, following the party’s guidance in only a minority of cases. The governing coalition chose not to challenge local dynamics. The PT is optimistic about Fortaleza and Teresina, where Evandro Leitão and Fábio Novo have a chance to lead in the first round.

There is uncertainty about reaching a runoff in Porto Alegre, where Maria do Rosário (PT) faces a threat from Juliana Brizola (PDT). Even if Ms. Rosário prevails, the likelihood of preventing Sebastião Melo’s (MDB) re-election is low, as he recovered in polls following the impact of May’s floods in Porto Alegre. PT candidates may also reach runoffs in Goiânia and Natal but face bleak prospects for the decisive round.

Governors’ influence is stifling national polarization in certain areas. The clearest example is in Belém, where Mayor Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL) is poorly rated, paving the way for Éder Mauro (PL). However, Belém will host COP 30 in 2025, promising substantial economic returns, and the governor’s candidate, Igor Normando (MDB), is gaining traction in polls.

In Goiânia, Governor Ronaldo Caiado (Brazil Union), eyeing a presidential bid, brought retired former legislator and businessman Sandro Mabel back to counter the PL’s rise. The backdrop is control over the race for Goiás’s gubernatorial succession. Mr. Mabel leads, but PL candidate Fred Rodrigues is gaining ground in polls.

The São Paulo situation is more complex. Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) intervened in the capital’s election to support Ricardo Nunes’ re-election upon recognizing Mr. Marçal’s strength. The underlying issue, never admitted by the governor, is the leadership of the right. Mr. Tarcísio’s involvement coincided with Bolsonaro’s disengagement from the São Paulo campaign. It’s a risky move. If Mr. Nunes advances to the runoff, it will be a victory for Mr. Tarcísio, not Mr. Bolsonaro. If the mayor is eliminated, Mr. Tarcísio will face a difficult position.

He would have to support Mr. Marçal against Mr. Boulos, risking his status as a right-wing leader. But if Mr. Marçal wins, Mr. Tarcísio will not be the main figure.

In the state’s countryside, the contest among the group led by Secretary Gilberto Kassab, PSD’s national president, Republicans, and PL led by former deputy Valdemar Costa Neto leans towards the first in crucial cities like São José dos Campos and Ribeirão Preto. In Guarulhos, the situation remains uncertain. This local struggle fuels Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters’ national offensive against PSD, amplified on social media.

*By César Felício — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/