The scenario of uncertainty —rising inflation and interest rates, and facing the majority elections this year — leads real estate developers to adopt a more cautious stance when drawing up their plans for 2022. The famous “guidances”, that is, the goals for the year, gave way to the discourse of most companies that decisions will be taken based on a more careful monitoring of the market. “The tone is one of selectivity. During the year, launches will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis,” says Bruno Mendonça, real estate market analyst at Bradesco BBI.

Together, Cury, Cyrela, Even, EZTec, Lavvi, Melnick, Miter, Moura Dubeux, MRV&Co and Plano&Plano launched the general sales value (VGV) of R$28.7 billion in 2021, with growth of 41.3%. From October to December, there was also expansion, but at a lower level, of 22.6%, to R$9.93 billion. “Apparently, most had the courage to put projects on the street. The releases in the quarter were a sign of confidence that the sector is adjusting, but is not frozen”, says Mr. Mendonça.

Net sales had, last year, an increase of 20.8%, to R$22.4 billion. In the quarter, the total sold by the ten developers grew 5.2%, in the annual comparison, to R$6.4 billion. As in the third quarter, sales were partially affected by the fact that a portion of launches was concentrated at the end of the period. But there was also a slower pace of property purchases by consumers due to higher prices as a result of rising costs.

Developers with priority to operate for middle and high income clients are the most affected by the macroeconomic environment. Just as the increase in real estate prices hampers the ability to purchase, the rise in interest rates on real estate credit makes it more difficult, especially for the middle class, to match the installments to the client’s income, highlights Ygor Altero, chief analyst for real estate at XP.

The increase in cases of Covid-19 and influenza also contribute to the more cautious posture of developers. “We have R$2 billion in approved projects. There is room to launch at the same pace as 2021, but the company has yet to make the decision on that. The guidance will be announced at the right time,” said EZTec’s CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Emilio Fugazza, recently. The company did not meet its launch target for the 2020-2021 biennium, reaching 76.5% of the range’s floor.

In the low-income segment, developers have given priority to operations in range 3 of Green Yellow House and in the segment just above the housing program ceiling. There were adjustments in the price limit of group 3 and interest reductions. The sector awaits the government’s announcement of measures that also favor group 2. “If the government reviews the ceiling for range 2, we have products on the shelf to launch,” said this week Rafael Menin, co-president of MRV&Co. Cury will not act in groups 1 and 2 “until adjustments are made”, according to the director of real estate credit, institutional and investor relations, Ronaldo Cury.

Mr. Altero, with XP, says he prefers the performance of low-income developers precisely in range 3 and slightly above, segments in which it is possible to “preserve profitability”. MRV&Co, Cury and Plano&Plano presented record performances in 2021. At MRV&Co, the performance of the other subsidiaries surpassed that of the Brazilian developer, but the latter also grew in launches.

Direcional Engenharia ended 2021 with a record total launched VGV of R$3.14 billion, which represents an increase of 78%. The Direcional brand, with units classified in ranges 2 and 3 of Green Yellow House, had 24% more launchings, reaching R$ 1.85 billion. At Riva, aimed at the middle-income segment, there was an expansion of almost 4.7 times, to R$1.29 billion.

“Direcional launched R$1.1 billion in 2017. Created two years ago, Riva had a higher VGV than Direcional’s four years ago,” compares the company’s CEO, Ricardo Ribeiro. According to him, the high demand for medium-income properties results from well-located products, with a complete leisure area, sold at competitive prices as a result of the “efficiency in the execution of works”.

In the year, Direcional’s net sales grew 45%, to R$2.44 billion — R$1.65 billion from the brand that bears the developer’s name, R$776 million from Riva and R$19 million from units of old projects. In the quarter, consolidated launches, in the amount of R$ 693 million, were in line with those of the same period in 2020. From October to December, consolidated sales increased by 27.7% in the annual comparison, and by 3.9% compared to the third quarter, to R$ 668 million.

“We had a good year, with growth in our two operating segments. We enter 2022 cautious with higher interest rates and inflation and attentive to how job creation will be. We are very well prepared, with products available for sale and projects under approval to offer properties to meet the demands of Direcional and Riva,” says Mr. Ribeiro.

In the understanding of the XP analyst, real estate production for the low-income segment tends to benefit from the fact that 2022 is a year of majority elections, considering the expectation that the housing program will be maintained regardless of who is the winner.

In the last 12 months, the shares of real estate developers were strongly impacted by the hike in the interest rates, which affects both demand and the degree of indebtedness of companies. The ten most liquid shares of real estate developers listed on B3 depreciated — Cyrela (45.48%), EZTec (51.65%), MRV (41.38%), Viver (1.58%), Tenda (50.03%), Gafisa (58.64%), Direcional (16.35%), Even (41.19%), Helbor (62.33%) and Trisul (50.23%). “The drops are related to redemptions by funds, but the lack of visibility of the sector doesn’t help,” says Mr. Mendonça, with Bradesco BBI.

Source: Valor international

https://valorinternational.globo.com/