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Abiove revises upwards estimates for soy production, exports in 2022

Harvest reached 126.9m tonnes, compared with 126.6m projected in August

09/15/2022

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) has revised upwards estimates for soybean harvest, processing, and exports in 2022.

According to new figures released on Wednesday, the harvest reached 126.9 million tonnes, compared with 126.6 million calculated in August. Even so, the result is lower compared to last year (138.9 million tonnes) due to a harvest loss in the South region and part of Mato Grosso do Sul.

For the processing of the raw material, Abiove’s forecast for this year increased to 48.9 million tonnes from 48.6 million – compared with 47.8 million tonnes in 2021. The projection for soybean exports was adjusted to 77 million tonnes from 76.8 million. Despite the revision, the figure is still down 10.6% from last year.

With the increase in the estimate for processing, Abiove started to project soy meal production of 37.4 million tonnes in 2022, 200,000 tonnes more than last month’s estimate, and up 1.6% from 2021. Projections for exports of soy meal were increased by 100,000 tonnes, to 18.7 million – up 8.7% from last year.

As for oil, the production estimate continues at 9.9 million tonnes, up from 9.6 million tonnes in 2021, while exports are projected at 2.2 million tonnes, up from 1.7 million tonnes last year.

In total, Abiove estimates revenues from soy exports in 2022 at $57.8 billion, nearly $10 billion more than last year. Soybeans are expected to generate $45 billion; soy meal is seen as bringing $9.4 billion, and oil will raise $3.4 billion.

*By Fernando Lopes — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Soy exports expected to reach record $58bn

Soy export in Paranaguá — Foto: Fabio Scremin/APPA
Soy export in Paranaguá — Foto: Fabio Scremin/APPA

With upward revisions, especially regarding prices, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) started to project the revenue of soy exports (beans, meal and oil) at $57.953 billion in 2022. The record amount is $6.51 billion higher than what was forecast by the association in March and, if materialized, will represent an increase of 20.7% year over year.

For soybeans, Abiove now estimates revenues of $46.32 billion, resulting from shipments of 77.2 million tonnes at an average price of $600 per tonne. The previous calculations indicated $41.181 billion (77.7 million tonnes at $530 per tonne). In 2021, revenues totaled $38.636 billion (86.108 million tonnes at $449 per tonne).

As for soy meal, the current scenario for 2022 indicates $8.51 billion in revenues, with sales of 18.3 million tonnes and an average price of $465 per tonne. In March, Abiove estimated revenues of $8.052 billion (18.3 million tonnes at $440 per tonne). Last year, the amount reached $7.37 billion (17.21 million tonnes at $428 per tonne).

For oil, Abiove revised its projection for export revenues to $3.123 billion, the result of 1.8 million tonnes shipped at $1,735 per tonne. In March, the projections indicated $2.21 billion (1.7 million tonnes at $1,300 per tonne). Last year, import revenues totaled $2.017 billion (1.651 million tonnes at $1,222 per tonne).

The price adjustments are in line with the curves seen in the international market since the beginning of the year and confirm analysts’ assessments that there should be no significant drops in the coming months, in view of the lower grain supply in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay due to weather problems, the effects of the war in Ukraine on the wheat and corn markets, and heated demand in India.

The trend of increasing the planted area in the United States in the 2022/23 season has not been enough to bring prices down. Brazil is the global leader in production and exports of soybeans, followed by the U.S.

Also in the new report it released on Tuesday, Abiove adjusted its estimate for the 2021/22 soybean harvest in Brazil to 125.4 million tonnes, 9.7% less than in 2020/21. Processing this year was maintained at 48 million tonnes, just above 2021, with production of 36.685 million tonnes of meal and 9.7 million tonnes of oil.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

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