Oil stocks diverge despite crude surge

Companies more directly exposed to production and exports, such as Petrobras and Prio, showed a clearer link to the commodity, though far from a perfect one. Petrobras common shares rose about 26% last month, while Prio advanced 21%, according to Valor Data.

That said, Petrobras also benefited from the continued flow of foreign capital into emerging markets. Brava Energia and PetroReconcavo lagged behind, with gains of 10% and 13%, respectively, held back by different operating characteristics and lower direct sensitivity to the rise in international oil prices.

The divergence also reflects company-specific factors that go beyond Brent’s swings. In Prio’s case, for example, most of its revenue is tied to exports and oil prices, and the company also has its own catalysts drawing investor attention, said Caio Borges, an analyst at Eleven Financial.

One is the recently approved license for the Wahoo field, with initial production of 12,000 barrels a day and expected output of 40,000 barrels a day by the end of April.

Squeezed margins

Petrobras operates under a different logic from the other companies. A significant share of its revenue comes from refining, where margins do not always move in line with Brent. That is because the state-controlled company’s pricing policy takes other factors into account besides crude prices, which leads to less frequent adjustments.

“In practice, when Brent rises and oil products are not immediately repriced, refining margins get squeezed, which limits the positive effect of higher oil prices on the company’s performance,” Borges said.

Although optimistic about Prio’s production growth, Henrique Lara, a portfolio manager at Reach Capital, said the recent 12% tax on crude oil exports weighs on the company. The measure, adopted by the government to help fund subsidies and contain fuel prices, was introduced alongside a 50% tax on diesel exports.

Brava is also among the companies most affected, since it exports about 40% of its production. At the same time, the company has a hedging structure that significantly reduces gains generated by higher Brent prices, which helps explain its weaker stock performance.

Rethinking exposure

Even so, the outbreak of the conflict prompted local asset managers to reassess portfolio risk. Before the war, many firms had little appetite for oil exposure because the consensus view was that supply and demand would be out of sync as the market moved from the first to the second quarter. But the price surge led to a significant increase in allocations to oil producers.

At Reach Capital, exposure to the sector was tripled, though the firm did not disclose numbers. According to Lara, the firm already believed the conflict would last longer than the market was pricing in, even if the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about one-fifth of global oil flows, were reopened. For that reason, part of the portfolio was shifted into oil companies, though the portfolio remains diversified.

Lara cut positions more exposed to the economic cycle and increased exposure by 10% to global oil companies and international fertilizer producers.

“Even if the war ends, the geopolitical premium will remain and will not immediately return to zero. A meaningful volume of oil has been taken out of the market, and the alternatives to offset that loss are limited,” he said.

No simple pattern

A study by Quantum shared exclusively with Valor shows that Brent and Petrobras stock prices do not always behave in tandem during geopolitical conflicts. During the Arab Spring, Petrobras preferred shares tracked the rise in oil from December 2010 through April 2011, but that correlation broke down from then until 2013. During the Israel-Hamas conflict between 2023 and 2025, the pattern was different: oil fell while Petrobras shares rose.

That historical asymmetry helps explain the current backdrop. In 2026, oil remains volatile, reacting mainly to signals from Iran and the United States. Even so, the average price level is already above what had initially been expected for the period, even under a truce scenario, said Guto Leite, equity portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton.

So far this year, oil has averaged between $75 and $80 a barrel, about $10 above the firm’s prewar projections, when the market expected demand to slow. “That is positive for Petrobras and Prio. Even with oil at $70, the floor should be higher and the geopolitical premium is likely to last longer.”

Before the war, Leite had less exposure to oil companies than the market average. Today, the portfolio is more defensive, with positions in Prio and Petrobras and reduced exposure to assets more sensitive to the economic cycle.