Law enforcement spending outpaces health and education in 18 states

In four states, security outlays grew at a higher real rate than health spending. In four others, they outpaced education. In one state, security and education increased at the same rate. States that posted a real decline in security spending over the period were excluded from the comparison.

Across the 26 states and the Federal District, the influence of larger state governments with heavier security budgets means education and health spending still grow more strongly than public security, though at broadly comparable rates. From January to October, education spending rose 5.3% in real terms versus the same months of 2024, while health and security increased 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively. All three outpaced aggregate own-source revenue, which grew 2.4%, also in real terms.

Regionally, data collected by Valor from budget execution reports show that in three of Brazil’s five regions—North, Northeast and South—security spending this year is growing at rates higher than or equal to health and education. In the North, security spending rose 4.8% in real terms from January to October, compared with 4% for health and 3% for education. In the Northeast, security advanced 5.8%, matching health and exceeding education’s 1.5%. In the South, security jumped 12.9%, versus 4.1% and 11% for health and education, respectively. The figures reflect executed spending and, for total outlays, include all expenses except intra-budgetary items.

“State security spending as a whole has been rising in recent years. There are fluctuations over a decade, but states are the key level of government, accounting for 80% of spending,” said Ursula Dias Peres, a public policy professor at the University of São Paulo’s School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities. “Governments have been under pressure, and most have opted for a more visible, more repressive policy based on personnel, which raises costs. This approach has spread regionally as organized crime has expanded across the country.”

In nearly all states, Peres said, there is a sizable institutional structure, especially the Military Police. “Security spending shapes revenue decisions even without constitutional earmarking, unlike education and health. It is an extremely sensitive area, where 80%, sometimes 90%, of spending involves career personnel, with increases driven by rank promotions or time in service. Governors have little control, because confronting a police strike, especially by the Military Police, is very difficult.” The Brazilian law-enforcement system is divided between the Civil Police, which investigates crimes, and the Military Police, which conducts patrols and raids.

Data show education and health remain the largest spending items for states. In the aggregate of states and the Federal District, education accounted for 16.5% of total spending from January to October, and health 14.1%. Without earmarked revenues and largely funded by own-source revenue, public security is the third-largest function, at 9.6% of total state spending.

Rio de Janeiro, which has been in the headlines following a large-scale operation against the Red Command (CV) criminal group that left 122 dead, is the only state where the share of security spending, at 16.4%, exceeds both education and health, which account for 10.2% and 9.8%, respectively, over the January–October 2025 period. Minas Gerais also reports higher security outlays, though the state government says the area’s budget does not surpass health and education. Unlike other states, Minas counts reserve military personnel under security spending.

Rio’s state government says that since 2019 it has invested more than R$16 billion in public security, including R$4.5 billion in technology and intelligence. According to the government, the state’s “specific characteristics” explain why security spending exceeds health and education. The amount includes investments and other expenditures of the Military and Civil Police, the prison system and the Institutional Security Office, with payroll as the largest expense.

Samira Bueno, executive director of the Brazilian Public Security Forum, a think tank, said the scenario constrains investment in innovation, as most resources go to wages and the upkeep of facilities and equipment. In Rio’s case, she said, distortions in career structures make security consume a large share of the budget, including automatic progression by time in service and an inverted hierarchy within the forces. In the Military Police, she noted, there are more sergeants than corporals. “In São Paulo there are 10,000 sergeants and 35,000 corporals. Rio has 16,000 sergeants and 15,000 corporals. It’s as if there are too many bosses for too few workers.”

Peres distinguishes the drivers of spending pressure in health, education and security. In health and education, she said, constitutional earmarking ties spending growth to revenues, while health has also been boosted by parliamentary earmarks. In education, she noted additional pressure from higher federal transfers to Fundeb, the public basic education fund financed by the federal government.

“Education and health continue to see strengthened growth, beyond earmarking, due to these policy changes,” she said. Security, by contrast, lacks earmarked funding or a guaranteed source, and is largely financed by states’ ICMS tax revenue, often crowding out other areas. Some governors’ rhetoric, she added, already suggests that calls to remove earmarks for health and education are linked to demands for more resources for security.

In Paraná, security spending in 2025 could exceed R$7 billion, said Norberto Ortigara, the state’s Finance Secretary. According to fiscal reports, security outlays rose 17.2% in real terms from January to October versus the same period of 2024, faster than education’s 13.4% and health’s 15.5%. Since 2021, Ortigara said, security spending has grown about 79% in nominal terms, well above the 41% increase in current revenue. The state restructured police pay scales and expanded hiring. Other current security expenses rose from R$577 million in 2021 to an expected R$2 billion this year, while investment climbed from R$106 million to more than R$850 million, including armored vehicles, helicopters, weapons and security equipment. “It is a response to what has become the main national issue: public security,” he said.

*By Marta Watanabe and Camila Zarur — São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/