China sold one-quarter of Brazil imports in 2025

The 2025 balance resulted from $348.7 billion in exports and $280.4 billion in imports, according to data released yesterday by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex/Mdic). The decline in the surplus compared with 2024 is explained by faster growth in import values, which rose 6.7%, nearly double the 3.5% increase in export revenues. With expansion on both sides, exports, imports and total trade flow reached their highest level on record in 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, economists point to uncertainties ranging from the outcome of negotiations over items that remain subject to U.S. surcharges to new protectionist measures from Mexico and China, not to mention the potential geopolitical impacts of U.S. operations in Venezuela on countries neighboring Brazil. There are also positive expectations, such as the conclusion of the trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur.

For José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), the level of uncertainty helps explain the wide range in Secex’s estimate for this year, which projects a Brazilian trade surplus between $70 billion and $90 billion.

The dynamism of the trade balance in 2025 helps explain this, Castro says. “The 2025 result was far better than anyone imagined at the beginning of last year, when balances were weak because imports were still growing more than expected. In the second half there was a slowdown in imports and exports posted gains that no one had anticipated.” Secex had projected a $61 billion surplus for 2025, $7.3 billion below the outcome. Soybean exports to China, Castro notes, gained strength in the second half and broke historical seasonality, remaining relatively strong through December.

Secex data show that in the first half of 2025 soybean exports totaled $25.4 billion, down 9.2% from the same period in 2024. From July to December 2025, they reached $18.2 billion, up 20.9%. For the full year, soybean export revenues rose 1.4%. With a record harvest, the volume of soybeans shipped in 2025 increased 9.5%, while prices fell 7.4%. China absorbed 77% of Brazil’s soybean shipments in 2025. The grain accounted for 34% of exports to China that year, followed by oil and iron ore, with shares of 20.1% and 19.5%, respectively.

For Lucas Barbosa, an economist at AZ Quest, Brazil’s trade balance in 2025 showed resilience, with a more diversified export mix. For 2026, Barbosa estimates the surplus could reach $75 billion. The outlook, he says, is favorable for metal commodity prices, “which could give iron ore a relevant role again.” For agricultural commodities, a mixed performance is expected. Crop development, especially soybeans and corn in Brazi, has been very favorable, he says. “The expectation is not for any extraordinary growth like we had in 2025, but rather for maintaining current levels of agricultural export volumes.”

The biggest uncertainty, he adds, lies in energy. “We have seen various movements around oil, which is priced at relatively low levels compared with recent years, around $60 a barrel.” Lower oil prices could affect Brazil. “The Venezuela issue is not a short-term matter, but from a medium-term perspective there could be effects.”

For imports in 2026, Barbosa says the estimate is for levels to be flat or slightly higher than in 2025, totaling between $280 billion and $290 billion. “If we have a sharper slowdown than expected, imports could even fall. But the most important thing would be to see lower import growth rates than those currently observed.”

André Valério, an economist at Banco Inter, expects a $70 billion surplus this year, with the dynamics seen in 2025 continuing. “There is an expectation of a definitive resolution to the tariff impasse imposed by the U.S., as well as the Mercosur-EU agreement, which would tend to improve trade balance dynamics at the margin. On the other hand, growing geopolitical uncertainties cloud the outlook. In 2025, Brazil benefited from this higher uncertainty, increasing its share of imports from China by occupying space left by U.S. suppliers to the Asian country.” The rise in soybean exports in the second half is seen as part of this process.

In relations with trade partners, Barbosa recommends keeping close watch on bilateral trade between the U.S. and Brazil. “It improved slightly at the margin, but the environment of uncertainty ended up affecting the volume of exports and imports between the two countries.” The positive highlight in 2025, he says, was Argentina, due to the country’s economic recovery. According to MDIC data, revenue from Brazilian exports to the U.S. fell 6.6% in 2025 compared with 2024, while export volumes declined 3.9%. To Argentina, export values rose 31.4% and volumes increased 24.7%.

Lia Valls, a postgraduate professor at the Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ) and a researcher at FGV Ibre, recalls that the tariff hikes imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump were one of the factors that changed the dynamics of Brazil’s export destinations during 2025. “In the first half, Brazilian exports to China fell in several months compared with 2024, while shipments to the U.S. were growing. In the second half, this reversed.”

For Herlon Brandão, Secex’s director of foreign trade statistics and studies, the drop in exports to the U.S. is not fully explained by the tariffs. “There was a decline in oil, which was not affected by the tariffs but by U.S. demand. But other sectors, such as wood and machinery, were affected.”

Imports from the U.S. to Brazil, Brandão says, rose 11.3% in 2025. “As the United States is the third-largest source of Brazilian imports, [the result] is largely explained by Brazilian demand.”

The U.S. remained Brazil’s second-largest supplier in 2025, accounting for 16.1% of all imports that year. On the export side, it also held second place despite the decline in shipments. Argentina ranked third.

China maintained its consolidated leadership both as a destination for Brazilian exports and as the origin of imports. More than that, China reached a record share in Brazil’s import series, with 25.3% in 2025, surpassing the 2024 peak of 24.2%. Imports made in China totaled $70.9 billion in 2025, up 11.5% from 2024. The growth rate was 4.8 percentage points higher than the increase in Brazil’s total imports over the same period.