Global trade, lack of public funding for climate cooperation, and limited ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions loom over the conference, dubbed variously as the Forest COP by Amazonians, the COP of Truth by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the COP of Implementation by diplomats, the COP of Action by business leaders, and the COP closest to environmental tipping points by scientists.

Trade, financing, and ambition are the three contentious issues that could surface right after the official opening and bring negotiations to a halt. “At other COPs, we pulled off acrobatics. At this one, we’ll need magic,” one negotiator said.

“We never know how COPs end, but with COP30, we don’t even know how it will begin,” said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Climate Observatory, Brazil’s largest civil society network focused on climate, comprising 160 environmental organizations, research institutes, and social movements.

The two-week summit risks being stalled from the outset because none of the three flashpoint issues is on the agenda agreed by nearly 200 delegations at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024. Yet, the coalitions pressing for their inclusion are central to climate negotiations.

Divisive issues

China and India are leading the bloc of developing countries that want to debate “unilateral measures” in Belém. Trade and environmental policy are increasingly overlapping on the global stage—the stalled EU-Mercosur trade deal being one example.

Developing nations view recent European actions as unilateral and incompatible with the United Nations’ climate framework, which operates on consensus. One such example is the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which bans the import of products like beef, soy, and timber linked to deforestation after December 2020.

The most divisive issue is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the EU’s plan to tax imports of carbon-intensive products, such as cement, steel, aluminum, and fertilizers, produced in countries with looser emission regulations. The EU argues this levels the playing field for its own regulated industries, but emerging economies see it as protectionism.

Although unilateral measures are not on the official agenda, developing countries are pushing for their inclusion. With the absence of the United States and Donald Trump’s tariff policy, the EU stands alone in rejecting the debate in Belém. The bloc insists trade should be discussed at the World Trade Organization (WTO), not climate forums. Opponents argue that carbon emissions fall squarely within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and thus belong at COPs.

A similar standoff derailed a preparatory meeting for COP30 in June in Bonn, Germany, and could resurface in Belém right after the opening session.

Climate finance tensions resurface

Even more politically sensitive is climate finance. Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, now ten years old, requires developed countries to provide public funds to help developing nations adapt to and mitigate the climate crisis.

But reopening this issue could reignite debate over the new collective climate finance goal set at COP29. In Baku, countries agreed that developed nations should mobilize at least $300 billion per year by 2035. However, it remains unclear whether this will be public funding or loans, potentially deepening debt in poorer countries.

The broader goal is to reach $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 from all sources. While developed nations are expected to lead, others may also contribute.

In COP29’s final plenary, India strongly objected to the absence of a requirement that rich nations provide public funding, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement. This unresolved issue could further delay the start of COP30.

More ambitious targets

Another late-breaking issue comes from small island developing states in Central America and the Pacific, devastated by increasingly frequent hurricanes and floods. These nations, which bear little historical responsibility for emissions, want COP30 to address the lack of ambition in national climate plans, known as NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions).

They argue that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, enshrined in the Paris Agreement, is likely to be missed, putting their survival at risk. Although critical, this issue is also not on the official agenda.

“Every COP starts with trouble,” said a negotiator. “The three major hurdles at COP30 are connected. Solving trade and financing may unlock ambition.”

The latest UN synthesis report on climate pledges submitted through September 30 shows emissions declining, but far too slowly. Only 64 NDCs—representing one-third of global emissions—were analyzed, a small sample given that 196 countries and the European Union are signatories of the Paris Agreement. The United States, historically the largest emitter and currently the second-largest, is exiting the process.

A separate report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) offers even grimmer news: current national plans through 2035 put the world on track for a “climate breakdown.”

If existing policies remain in place, global warming could reach 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels; the best-case scenario is 2.3°C. “We must face the hard truth,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen at the report’s release two days ago.

Rising adaptation costs

Adapting to extreme weather in developing countries could cost more than $310 billion annually by 2035. One previous COP pledge from wealthy nations was to double adaptation funding from $20 billion to $40 billion by the end of 2025. Not only is this far below what’s needed, it’s also not being fulfilled.

“Too many companies are making record profits from climate destruction, spending billions on lobbying, misleading the public, and blocking progress. Too many leaders remain beholden to these interests. Too many countries lack resources to adapt or are left out of the clean energy transition. And too many people are losing hope that their leaders will act,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the COP30 Leaders Summit in Belém.

Mr. Guterres also offered reasons for optimism. Scientists say there’s still time to avoid the worst. In 2025, clean energy surpassed coal as the world’s leading electricity source. In 2024, global investment in clean energy reached $2 trillion, $800 billion more than in fossil fuels.

Tropical forest fund

Even before its official start, COP30 has produced two notable outcomes. First is the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF), a Brazilian-led initiative to protect forests across more than 70 countries. On the first day of the Leaders Summit, it secured $5.5 billion in funding and support from over 50 countries. “It may be considered a historic day,” said Carlos Rittl, global director of public policy for forests and climate change at the Wildlife Conservation Society.

The second is the Roadmap from Baku to Belém, co-authored by COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago and COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev. The report outlines how to mobilize the $1.3 trillion needed annually for the green transition and climate adaptation in developing countries. “It can be done. The money exists,” Mr. Corrêa do Lago said.

More progress could follow. In the coming days, a coalition may form to reduce methane emissions, among the most potent greenhouse gases. Another expected outcome is an alliance to align carbon markets and propose principles to harmonize the world’s emerging green taxonomies.