Global mining companies are no longer being seen only as great companies, but also as great stocks. That is the assessment of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), based on an analysis of the performance of 87 companies around the world—including Brazil—summarized in the study “Great Company, Great Stocks: Miners Must Be Both,” obtained by Valor.

“What we have seen in mining as a whole is that companies’ fundamentals are stronger, capital allocation has also improved, and what they pay shareholders has increased. Companies are generating more capital,” says Lucas Zuquim, a partner at BCG in Brazil, based on the study, which takes into account the performance of mining companies and their shares over the past decade.

As large companies, mining firms have begun generating significantly higher free cash flows, reducing leverage, and stabilizing their exploration budgets, the study says. In some cases, they have also adopted a more consistent, less cyclical approach to mergers and acquisitions.

Investor returns, according to Zuquim, are measured in the study using total shareholder return (TSR). The metric takes into account share appreciation on the stock exchange, dividends paid, and interest on equity—in other words, everything shareholders receive. According to BCG, mining companies’ TSR has accelerated globally over the past five years to levels close to those of the building materials and machinery sectors and slightly above those of the oil and gas and metals sectors.

Also according to the study, the sector’s free cash flow generation has shown a clear structural improvement over the years. Annual volume rose to $80–$90 billion in the mid-2020s, up from less than $40 billion in the late 2000s. These levels are 1.5 to 2.5 times higher than those recorded in equivalent commodity price cycles observed 15 or 20 years ago. “Although the evolution of production volumes influences the absolute figures, the observed jump points unequivocally to a financially healthier industry.”

Companies’ use of cash has changed considerably over the past 20 years. Between 2005 and 2008, mining companies spent 46% of cash generation on investments in assets and production, a share that rose to 49% between 2021 and 2025 (the 2025 figure considers the 12 months ended in September). Cash acquisitions, which accounted for 25% of cash allocation from 2005 to 2008, fell to 5% over the past four years. Shareholder remuneration through dividends rose to 35% of cash between 2021 and 2025 from 17% in the early years of the survey. Share buybacks, on the other hand, which once represented about 50% of dividend volume, now account for less than 15%.

According to Zuquim, companies have improved cash generation and reduced leverage. Yet some investors still do not see mining companies as core long-term investments. “Some still see mining as a cyclical business.” The commodities boom driven by China in the early 2000s left a mark on the sector. “They invest, wait for ore prices to rise, and then sell,” he says.

Zuquim, however, says that some companies have disciplined capital management, with merger and acquisition investments not correlated with commodity prices. One example is the copper subsector. To move forward, he says, companies should improve capital allocation and plan long-term acquisitions. “In other words, have a more consistent long-term track record.”

Among the companies included in the study, 10% are Brazilian. Vale is a good case. For Zuquim, the mining company is one of the best examples reinforcing the BCG study’s analysis. “The company’s fundamentals have improved significantly over the past three years. Leverage has fallen, and shareholder remuneration has increased. Vale is delivering on its production guidance and even exceeding it,” he says, referring to the forecasts the company periodically provides. “It is a clear example of how companies are improving business metrics and financial metrics. And the shares are following that movement,” he says.

The company is closely followed by analysts at investment banks and brokerages. According to data compiled by MarketWatch, a tool that tracks companies’ stock-exchange performance, 27 international analysts monitor the mining company’s data. Among this group, the average recommendation is “buy” for the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) traded in New York, with an average price target of $17.57. The shares closed yesterday at $16.50.

As Zuquim noted, Vale released its projections shortly after publishing its first-quarter earnings. On May 12, it announced that recent changes in market conditions, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, will positively impact its results. The mining company estimates an increase of approximately $1.5 billion in free cash flow for the year in its iron ore unit, supported mainly by a projected $1.2 billion increase in the segment’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and by $425 million generated from foreign-exchange and fuel hedging programs.

Another example cited by BCG is CSN Mineração. “It improved cash flow and is investing in a new concentration plant.” In addition to CSN Mineração, Zuquim mentions Canada’s Aura Minerals, a gold and copper mining company whose securities are traded on B3. It is a younger company, he says, but it is also delivering to the market what it has forecast. Globally, Zuquim lists giants Rio Tinto and BHP as the most “relevant” mining companies that have improved capital allocation.

To consolidate their role as “great stocks,” mining companies must advance on two main fronts, according to BCG. “The first is resetting capital allocation parameters based on mid-cycle economics—especially urgent for precious metals companies and copper producers exposed to market euphoria,” the study says. “The second is developing clearer, investor-centered equity narratives, with quantified commitments to margin expansion, ROCE [return on capital employed] improvement, capital-efficient production growth, and more resilient cash generation throughout the cycle.”

Translation: Todd Harkin

*By Nelson Rocco — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

The U.S. decision to classify criminal factions Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as terrorist organizations could affect Brazil’s business environment and the national financial system, including Pix, the instant payments platform created by the Central Bank.

The U.S. move has raised the alert level at banks and fintechs, which will need to review compliance policies and could face higher costs. It has also raised questions about possible consequences for companies in other sectors of the economy and for individuals, who could become targets of discretionary, or arbitrary, action by Donald Trump’s administration, according to experts interviewed by Valor.

The United States could also use the designation of PCC and CV to tighten the issuance of U.S. visas to Brazilians, although such a move is not expected to become a general rule given the economic nature of immigration decisions, said Fabiano Rocha, a data scientist and immigration specialist who is CEO and founder of Jumpstart.

“Any restrictive measures would not be sustained for very long because of the mutual economic dependence between the two countries. The migration market is very resilient, and the force that drives it is economic,” he said.

The U.S. decision also raises questions about the impact on Brazil-U.S. relations, especially in the exchange of information involving police investigations.

The issue is that the terrorist designation moves the criminal groups out of the strictly police sphere of security and into a more rigorous national defense framework, Lincoln Gakiya, a São Paulo state prosecutor considered Brazil’s leading authority in the fight against PCC, told newspaper O Globo.

Intelligence agencies

From that standpoint, the immediate impact of the U.S. initiative lies in the change in the profile of the U.S. agencies with which Brazil is likely to cooperate, said Thiago Bottino, a law professor at Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in Rio de Janeiro.

Under the new definition, investigations related to PCC and CV would no longer be led by agencies focused on combating drug trafficking, such as the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), or by the Department of Justice (DoJ). Instead, they would involve intelligence and counterterrorism agencies such as the CIA and the FBI’s counterterrorism division.

Gakiya told O Globo that this point worries him, because information-sharing is currently agile and that flow could be impaired. In some cases, U.S. authorities could invoke secrecy and stop sharing information with their Brazilian counterparts.

Bottino, from FGV, considers the new classification inappropriate, since agencies such as the CIA “are focused on understanding and combating a phenomenon that is different from the phenomenon of a criminal organization, which sells drugs and controls territories.”

“A terrorist organization does not want to dominate or invade territories, as PCC and CV do,” he said. Terrorist organizations have political, ideological, or religious motivations, experts say. PCC and CV, by contrast, have an economic purpose: making money from illegal activities.

Analysts also see the classification as having the potential to influence Brazil’s public debate, with possible effects on this year’s elections. The State Department announced on Thursday (28) that PCC and CV would be listed as terrorist organizations, a measure that takes effect on Friday (5).

The designation followed a visit by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, Rio de Janeiro), a presidential pre-candidate in the October election, to the White House, where he was received by President Trump on May 26. The new definition of the criminal groups is likely to be used in the campaign.

Compliance risks

In the short term, companies and the financial system in Brazil are trying to understand the effects of the measure. Experts say the designation could broaden the reach of U.S. authorities over activities carried out in Brazil and expose Brazilian companies to investigations, while also forcing them to improve their compliance systems. In that sense, the U.S. decision carries risk and could add costs.

For Leandro Piquet Carneiro, coordinator of Escola de Segurança Multidimensional (School of Multidimensional Security) and professor at the University of São Paulo’s Institute of International Relations, the risk of potential sanctions against companies could have the effect of strengthening compliance rules in Brazil, making the business environment safer and making it harder for “crime as a service” operations that involve hundreds of illegal businesses.

“The classification could also add a new layer to existing [bilateral] cooperation, without excluding traditional channels,” he said.

The measure could, however, affect companies that operate legally but at some point did business with partners linked to criminal activities without necessarily identifying that connection.

Bottino, from FGV, shares that view. “It is very common for these criminal organizations to infiltrate legal business activities so they can launder money from crime. And, many times, companies that do business with other companies, other funds and other managers are not aware of that. It is not that simple or easy, because they are dealing with people who want to hide that origin,” he said.

He continued: “These companies that at some point may have done business with others that could be related to criminal activity are subject to losing their bank accounts [in the U.S.], having their accounts frozen, facing investigations, eventually being placed on lists and being prohibited from doing business in the United States and Europe.”

Pix and banks come under scrutiny

Finance Minister Dario Durigan told Globonews that the U.S. decision could harm Pix. He raised the possibility that U.S. courts could pressure banks operating in Brazil that receive payments through Pix.

Durigan also said costs in the national financial system could rise, since banks will need to review rules and, in some cases, adopt new compliance measures.

The minister also said there is a risk that Brazil could be suspected of being a territory where terrorist activities take place, which would have macroeconomic implications, including an increase in country risk and damage to the attraction of foreign direct investment.

In the market, however, the initial assessment was that the practical effects of the measure on domestic assets in the short term should come more through political repercussions than through an outflow of funds from Brazil or restrictions on investment in the country. Overall, financial market participants see the Trump administration’s action as negative, but not something likely to change the course of domestic markets, at least for now.

The Brazilian Association of Banks (ABBC), however, acknowledged that the measure could affect relationships between Brazilian and U.S. banks. The Brazilian Association of Fintechs (ABFintechs) said the U.S. government’s action has direct and immediate impacts on the sector.

New pressure

Oliver Stuenkel, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington and fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, said the U.S. decision changes how Brazil is perceived and introduces a counterterrorism and Pentagon-related dimension into the bilateral relationship, something that, in his words, “was not part of the relationship between the two countries.”

“This will also require an adjustment in how Brazil deals, from now on, with this issue of combating terrorism. This is an issue the government will have to face,” said Stuenkel, who is also a professor of International Relations at FGV in São Paulo.

Piquet Carneiro, from USP, believes the long-standing bilateral relationship between the two countries may still prevail. He pointed to the Foreign Affairs Ministry’s initial silence as an indication of the careful analysis Brazil is conducting in the face of this new reality.

“Brazil and the U.S. have a long-standing relationship, with established channels of cooperation in defense, security and criminal justice that are crucial for both countries. It is a channel that is open all the time, and Brazil is very important to U.S. strategies,” he said.

But he cautioned that the classification could also be used in a discretionary way, considering President Trump’s nature, and could even lead to controversial actions against politicians or individuals.

Along similar lines, researcher Vitor de Pieri, a professor at UERJ’s Institute of Geography, said the measure is part of a broader strategy to expand the U.S. security agenda in Latin America in a context of global geopolitical dispute and the region’s growing strategic importance.

Looking at precedents, Pieri cited Plan Colombia, implemented in the South American country in the late 1990s under the argument of fighting drug trafficking and armed groups, but which also expanded the U.S. presence in South America through military cooperation, intelligence and financial assistance. In his view, both the war on drugs and the fight against terrorism show how security agendas are linked to broader geopolitical interests.

The risk of diplomatic strain, according to the UERJ professor, grows if the measure is used as an instrument of political pressure on Brazil. In that scenario, issues such as border control, the Amazon, critical infrastructure and mineral resources could be folded into a broader logic of hemispheric security.

“The main debate for Brazil is not only the fight against organized crime, but the preservation of its autonomy to define how to confront this problem,” Pieri said. “Although the measure targets specific criminal organizations, its effects tend to go beyond the sphere of public security and reach the business environment and the financial system.”

Visa policy

The designation of the two criminal factions also allows the United States to tighten the issuance of U.S. visas to Brazilians. However, Rocha, the data scientist and immigration specialist, said the new classification should not lead to broad-based changes. He based his assessment on what he sees as the “economic nature of U.S. immigration decisions.”

According to Rocha, the United States has a growing need for workers, and Brazil is one of the exporters of skilled labor to U.S. territory, surpassing even other Latin American countries such as Mexico. Even in tourist visas, he said, the rejection rate for Brazilians ranges from 15% to 20%, influenced by Brazil’s Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita income.

(Jéssica Sant’Ana contributed reporting from Brasília.)

*By Laura Lopes, Camila Zarur and Debora Leite — São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

The more cyclical components of Brazil’s gross domestic product accelerated in the first quarter of 2026 at a time when the Central Bank is cutting interest rates and the federal government is introducing new measures to stimulate consumption in an economy already operating close to its potential. According to Mario Mesquita, Itaú Unibanco’s chief economist, these developments could delay the slowdown in activity that many analysts have been expecting, alter the backdrop for monetary policy, and reduce the room available for further easing.

Brazil’s GDP expanded 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous three months, according to data released on Friday (29) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). “This GDP report shows an economy with signs of reacceleration,” Mesquita noted.

Economic activity started the year strongly but is unlikely to maintain the same pace, he said, because “a slowdown is, to some extent, already built into the outlook.” Even so, he added, the GDP composition points to “a resilient economy.”

A prolonged or intensified conflict in the Middle East represents a downside risk to Brazil’s GDP in 2026 because it would also weigh on global growth, Mesquita noted. On the other hand, additional government stimulus measures create upside risks for activity.

A former Central Bank director, Mesquita said he is “somewhat concerned” about recent inflation dynamics and inflation expectations, particularly at longer horizons. “It suggests that the market has a fundamental question about the Central Bank’s conduct,” he said.

At the same time, Mesquita said he has “no criticism whatsoever” of the monetary authority’s performance. “They are making a major effort. The economy was hit by a shock during the process. In situations like this, central banks wait to see how things evolve. It cannot react hastily or prematurely. But we know the Central Bank’s flight plan is flexible and constantly evolving,” he noted.

The economist also described it as “entirely appropriate” for policymakers to avoid providing explicit forward guidance. “The Central Bank cannot project a sense of certainty in such an uncertain environment.”

Some normalization of the situation in the Middle East in the coming months, even if insufficient to return oil prices to prewar levels, could contribute to a weaker dollar globally and limit the chances of a sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real during an election year, which tends to be more volatile, he said.

“We see the currency ending the year between R$5.10 and R$5.20 to the dollar, not far from current levels, with some uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy at home and a broader trend of dollar weakness globally, with one factor largely offsetting the other,” Mesquita said.

In his view, regardless of the election’s outcome, the next administration will likely adopt a more restrictive fiscal stance. Asset prices, he said, already reflect expectations that a fiscal-adjustment process will begin in 2027.

Mesquita, who has served as Itaú’s chief economist since 2016, is leaving the role, which will be assumed in July by former Central Bank director Diogo Guillen. During the transition, Mesquita will continue working with the bank as a consultant overseeing macroeconomic functions. Below are excerpts from the interview:

ValorDid Brazil’s 1.1% GDP growth in the first quarter surprise you?

Mario Mesquita: We were projecting something slightly above that, but overall it was consistent with a scenario in which the economy grows around 2% this year, perhaps a bit more. This time, agriculture was not a highlight, as it showed a significant slowdown. What really helped was the services sector, the most important part of the economy. GDP also showed a recovery in consumption and robust private-sector demand. This GDP report points to an economy showing signs of reacceleration at a time when the Central Bank is easing monetary policy, and the government is adopting measures to support demand.

ValorWhat is your outlook for GDP in the coming quarters?

Mesquita: The economy started the year strongly. It should not maintain that pace. A slowdown is to some extent already priced in, but even with first-quarter growth coming in slightly below what we expected, the composition of GDP points to a resilient economy. Consumption is performing well, and investment has recovered. Investment fell in the previous quarter, and there was also the one-off factor of an imported oil platform. But overall, it is robust growth, with private-sector demand making an important contribution.

ValorSeveral new federal programs have been announced in recent months. Did they show up in first-quarter GDP, or will they show up later?

Mesquita: The additional stimulus creates an upside bias. Looking at risks, a downside risk would be a prolonged or intensified conflict in the Middle East. Domestically, when we look at household credit this year, growth has been significant, while lending to companies has been less dynamic. Forces are moving in opposite directions. Many of the stimulus measures are linked to credit markets and support demand. In addition, there are social transfers and pension-related payments, all of which quickly become demand. That changes the backdrop for monetary policy. We see GDP growing on the back of domestic demand and private-sector activity, and the government’s measures are aimed at sustaining household consumption.

ValorCould that delay the economic slowdown analysts have been expecting?

Mesquita: It could, just as labor-market adjustments could. Although the latest employment data were weaker, unemployment remains very low by historical standards when seasonally adjusted. And if we look at what the Central Bank calls cyclical GDP, it actually accelerated. Perhaps that is the key takeaway from this GDP release: the acceleration of the cyclical component of GDP, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, at a moment when the Central Bank is cutting rates, and the government is introducing new stimulus measures.

ValorGiven all of that, can the Central Bank continue cutting rates?

Mesquita: In any economy, the more stimulus you receive from other sources, the more you occupy the space that would otherwise belong to monetary policy. There are other factors too—expectations, exchange rates, and so on. The Central Bank also continuously updates its relevant policy horizon. But conceptually, the more stimulus comes from elsewhere, the less room monetary policy has. And this is happening in an economy already operating close to what appears to be its potential.

ValorWas the disinflation process before the Middle East conflict fragile?

Mesquita: Brazil targets headline inflation, and I agree with that approach because that is the inflation people actually experience. The Central Bank cannot distinguish between “good” and “bad” disinflation. But when disinflation depends heavily on exchange-rate movements and imported goods, we know the exchange rate is highly volatile and difficult to predict. That kind of disinflation tends to be more fragile than one driven by a widening output gap. That had been a feature of Brazil’s disinflation process until the global economy was hit by the oil shock. Oil is obviously critical for fuel prices, but it also influences inflation in many other ways. There is also the El Niño issue, although its inflationary impact is likely to be greater next year. In the short term, inflation readings will remain under pressure. Monetary policy is calibrated to affect inflation over the relevant horizon, not instantly. But initial conditions matter. That is why we are somewhat concerned about the recent inflation dynamic.

ValorInflation expectations are rising. Is that also a concern?

Mesquita: Yes, because expectations are important both for actual inflation outcomes and for the Central Bank’s models. Expectations had been above target and were beginning to improve and converge when the shock hit. That concerns me and certainly concerns the Central Bank as well. Especially when we look at longer-term expectations. In the short run, a shock occurs, and expectations naturally rise. But when longer-term expectations move higher, it suggests the market has a fundamental question about the Central Bank’s conduct.

ValorHow do you assess the Central Bank’s performance?

Mesquita: I have no criticism of what the policymakers have done. They are making a major effort. The economy was hit by a shock during the process. In situations like this, central banks wait to see how things evolve. They cannot react hastily or prematurely. We know the Central Bank’s approach is flexible and adapts as new data emerge and forecasts change. Our Central Bank is certainly processing the same information we are and incorporating it into its models and projections.

ValorHave you been satisfied with the Central Bank’s communication since it began cutting rates in March?

Mesquita: We may disagree on details here and there, but broadly speaking, it has been good. It is appropriate that they avoid providing explicit guidance and instead leave a range of possibilities on the table. The monetary authority cannot project certainty in such an uncertain environment. The uncertainty facing policymakers is no different from the uncertainty facing markets. In fact, all central banks are dealing with that.

ValorThe disinflation process depended heavily on currency appreciation. Will that continue, or could the presidential election change the picture?

Mesquita: Sometimes we forget that an exchange rate involves two currencies. The dollar was falling in Brazil largely because it was weakening globally. When the dollar enters a global trend, the exchange rate here tends to follow. Election years generally bring more volatility and are not typically associated with significant currency appreciation. But we should not underestimate the global backdrop. If the Middle East conflict subsides in the coming months—and we never know exactly when that will happen or when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen—we may return to a weaker-dollar environment. That would limit the chances of a major depreciation of the real. We see the currency ending the year between R$5.10 and R$5.20 to the dollar, not far from where it is now, with domestic fiscal uncertainty offset by broader global dollar weakness.

ValorWhen you mention fiscal uncertainty, are you referring to new election-year stimulus measures or to what presidential candidates may propose?

Mesquita: Both. We are looking at election-year programs that create permanent fiscal implications, such as tax exemptions and lasting revenue losses. We are also looking beyond 2027. Brazil’s public debt is growing by about 4 percentage points of GDP per year. We know that is unsustainable and that, regardless of the election result, the next government will likely need to address fiscal issues more directly. Fiscal policy under the next administration is likely to be more restrictive. Investors continue financing the government because they expect a fiscal-adjustment process to begin. I do not think there will be a magic solution that immediately delivers the primary surplus needed to stabilize debt in 2027. But asset prices reflect expectations that such an adjustment process will begin then.

ValorLong-term nominal and real interest rates remain very high. Does that suggest market skepticism about future fiscal adjustment?

Mesquita: Real interest rates have been falling for both good and less positive reasons. They have fallen because the Selic policy interest rate is coming down, but also because inflation expectations are rising. We tend to focus on nominal rates, but real rates have been declining for some time. When you combine lower real rates with new stimulus measures being introduced every few days, as has been reported, the effectiveness of monetary policy is diminished. New credit products are performing very well—for example, private-sector payroll loans, which are a highly positive innovation for the financial system and for consumers and which support economic growth. There is nothing wrong with that; it is an excellent product. But in economics, everything has consequences. One consequence of these stimulus measures is that they reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy.

ValorThe interest-rate curve implies a Selic rate of around 14% at year-end. Do you consider that fair?

Mesquita: At the moment, our forecast is for the cycle to end at 13.25%, but we are constantly reviewing the outlook as new data come in. If the outcome differs from 13.25%, it is more likely to involve fewer cuts rather than more.

Valor: What is your baseline scenario for the Middle East conflict?

Mesquita: We think there will be a higher risk premium embedded in oil prices because uncertainty about supply has increased. Previously, we expected oil to end the year around $60 to $70 per barrel. Now we see it more in the $80 to $90 range. We still expect prices to ease once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz begins to normalize. But that will not happen overnight. Clearing mines and restoring normal shipping flows will take time. Even then, it does not appear that oil will return to previous levels, especially considering that several countries have drawn down strategic reserves and will need to rebuild them. Overall, we view the war as a drag on the global economy. For Brazil, higher oil prices have a direct positive effect because the country is a net oil exporter. But when we consider the impact on global growth and the reduced scope for monetary easing, the net effect is slightly negative. That is why I describe a prolonged conflict as a downside risk to GDP.

ValorFrom a strictly macroeconomic perspective, does the U.S. decision to classify Brazilian criminal organizations as terrorist groups affect Brazil’s economy or capital flows?

Mesquita: We have received questions from clients and international investors about that, but it is not the first time something like this has happened in Latin America. I spoke with our teams in Mexico and Colombia, both of which have faced similar situations, and the impact there was very limited, if there was any at all. In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum has been very careful not to escalate tensions with the U.S., which has helped contain the impact. Colombia has faced various sanctions over time, and markets there have become less sensitive to this type of news. In short, I do not expect a major market reaction. It is not positive news, of course, but I do not see it triggering a significant response from investors. It is, however, something that attracts attention.

*By Anaïs Fernandes and Victor Rezende — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

One week after joining the federal government’s latest fuel-subsidy program, Petrobras raised gasoline prices at its refineries on Thursday. The state-run oil company announced a R$0.48-per-liter increase effective Friday, equivalent to 18.68%.

The impact on fuel distributors, however, will be limited to R$0.04 per liter, or 1.56%, because Petrobras agreed to receive a government subsidy of R$0.44 per liter of gasoline. Specialists disagree on how much the measure will ultimately affect consumer prices.

The last time Petrobras raised gasoline prices at its refineries was on July 8, 2024, when it increased them by 7.12%. In January, the company reduced gasoline prices by 5.17%. “The effect on distributors and final consumers is mitigated by the economic subsidy granted by the government,” Petrobras said in a statement.

Petrobras Chief Executive Magda Chambriard attended a press conference on Wednesday regarding investments in the northeastern state of Sergipe, but did not comment on the price adjustment.

Petrobras has been selling fuel below international prices, arguing that it does not pass through short-term market volatility such as that caused by the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Even after Thursday’s increase—including the subsidy amount—the company continues to sell gasoline below international parity levels.

According to data from the consultancy StoneX, Petrobras gasoline is 35.2% below international prices, equivalent to roughly a R$ 0.90-per-liter gap. Without the latest adjustment, that gap would have reached R$1.38 per liter.

The subsidy is part of a government package to soften the impact of tensions in the Middle East on fuel prices in Brazil. The measure was established through a provisional presidential decree issued on May 13, capping gasoline and diesel prices sold by refineries and importers at R$0.89 per liter above the subsidized benchmark.

Fuel distributors and retailers are not eligible for the subsidy unless they hold authorization to import refined products directly or through affiliated trading operations. Market specialists remain divided over whether the subsidy will effectively limit pump prices.

David Zylbersztajn, a former director-general of Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency and professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, said the government’s objective of avoiding larger pass-throughs to consumers is likely to succeed during this first Petrobras adjustment since the conflict escalated.

“In theory, prices are free, but the impact at the pump should be minimal. There is no reason for the subsidy not to work in cushioning the effect on final prices,” said Zylbersztajn, who also chairs the board of Sindicom, an association representing Brazil’s largest fuel distributors.

In his view, the effect on consumers should be close to the R$0.04-per-liter increase charged by Petrobras to distributors. He noted that the post-subsidy adjustment is very small relative to the retail price of gasoline.

According to a survey by Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency, average gasoline prices at service stations last week stood at R$6.62 per liter. A R$0.04 increase represents slightly more than 0.6% of that average. “Petrobras is selling with a R$0.04 increase. It is negligible,” Zylbersztajn said.

Others in the industry are less convinced.

James Thorp Neto, president of the National Federation of Fuel and Lubricant Commerce, said the market is too dynamic to isolate the subsidy’s effect accurately. As examples, he cited falling prices for ethanol and biodiesel, both of which also influence final fuel prices. “There are so many factors affecting prices that it becomes difficult to know exactly what causes them to rise or fall,” Thorp said.

Another industry source noted that retail prices ultimately depend on competitive market conditions and distributors’ commercial strategies. Bruno Cordeiro, a market-intelligence analyst at StoneX, said imported fuel prices have recently declined because crude oil prices eased amid growing optimism about extended peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

However, he noted that U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen due to stronger refining margins and the approach of the American summer driving season, which typically boosts fuel consumption. “We are seeing a gasoline-crude crack spread of about $40 per barrel,” Cordeiro said. “If there is no agreement between the U.S. and Iran to restore flows through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, we could see additional upward pressure.”

*By Fábio Couto, Rafael Rosas and Alessandra Saraiva — Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

 

 

 

 

The new interim president of Brazil’s antitrust watchdog, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), Diogo Thomson, has witnessed cartels evolve from arrangements coordinated through emails to practices involving algorithms. Elevated to the agency’s top position as the most senior member of CADE’s tribunal, Thomson is also a long-serving official at the institution, where he first worked as a federal prosecutor in 2007. He later served as deputy superintendent for ten years and as acting superintendent-general in 2017 and again between 2021 and 2022.

As president, Thomson has played a significant role in recent cases involving big tech companies and artificial intelligence, working in parallel with international antitrust authorities. In recent decisions, the agency required notification of transactions involving major technology companies and artificial intelligence firms for closer review. It opened an investigation into the use of news content by an AI tool.

Through June, Thomson said his focus will be on reforming CADE’s internal rules and on the proposed “Big Tech Bill.” Fast-tracked in the Lower House, Bill 4,675/2025 focuses on competition rules and market power and could significantly expand CADE’s authority. While waiting for the legislation, the regulator intends to address big tech issues using its existing powers, he told Valor. Below are excerpts from the interview.

Presidency

Being in an interim role creates the challenge of not knowing how long it will last. My advantage is that I have been here for a long time and know the institution well. The idea is to work in stages. Right now, we are dealing with what is urgent. We have a short-term plan through June. Then, because there will be the World Cup and elections, we have a second phase from June until the elections. After that, we need to understand what the government will look like and what the prospects are. For now, the idea is to address urgent matters and then see what is possible.

Priorities

Some issues have been on the agenda for some time, such as reforms to our internal rules, many of which are requested by companies and lawyers. One issue is a priority, though not necessarily urgent because it does not depend on us: the report on Bill 4,675 of 2025, which deals with digital markets and grants new powers to CADE. Because the bill is under an expedited legislative process, the rapporteur has until June to present a report. We will do everything within CADE’s reach to contribute to that process.

Big Tech Bill

There are challenges associated with the new responsibilities. If the bill passes, CADE will need a period of adaptation. The model envisions a new structure, and internally we can prepare the agency administratively within our capabilities. That includes rethinking our departments’ structure and working with the Ministry of Management to hire additional staff. CADE already has institutional expertise dedicated to studying digital markets, which can be put to good use once the bill is approved.

Revenue thresholds

Updating revenue thresholds is a longstanding request from companies, since they have never been adjusted. Inflation alone has created a significant gap relative to the current mandatory notification thresholds for merger filings [currently transactions involving one company with annual gross revenue of at least R$750 million and another with at least R$75 million]. Updating these thresholds would reduce the number of filings and improve efficiency. Both the Finance Ministry and the Justice Ministry have been paying close attention to this issue. We have been working with them on the best way to make the adjustment, which cannot be limited to notification thresholds alone. It must also include procedural fees, because CADE’s budget depends heavily on them.

Quorum

We need a quorum of four commissioners to open a hearing and three to issue rulings. My recusals—stemming from cases I worked on while serving in CADE’s technical staff before joining the tribunal—are becoming increasingly rare. I still have recusals involving some very old cartel cases that have been in the Superintendent-General’s Office for a long time. There are also some older cases related to the anti-corruption task force Car Wash, though not all of them. A reduced tribunal creates other challenges, particularly because commissioners don’t work with large teams. One of our short-term priorities is strengthening those teams. We also want to better organize hearing agendas so we can decide multiple cases at once. We recently did that with cases involving acquisitions of artificial intelligence companies by big tech firms.

Big tech companies

Our idea is to deal with big tech using the tools we already have to address problematic conduct. We are not enemies of innovation. On the contrary, we recognize that many of these companies bring innovative products. But there is concern about the power these companies hold, especially when they prevent new entrants or reduce user choice. That is one reason there is a legislative initiative to give CADE more authority. In the meantime, we will act within the scope of what we can assess under existing conduct investigations, just as we would in any other market.

Labor market

There is more than one case under review by the Superintendent-General’s Office that involves possible coordination in labor markets. Antitrust law has always dealt with these issues in some way. Labor is a cost and an input. If it is affected by anticompetitive conduct, it must be investigated. These cases involve different situations, from wage-fixing arrangements—which are equivalent to cartels because they fix an economic variable—to harder-to-prove cases, such as information exchanges that may affect labor markets. If companies coordinate or share information, they can exert pressure on workers, and the result may be lower wages. Another serious practice is agreeing not to hire competitors’ employees. That also reduces competition in labor markets. Our analysis does not focus on employment relationships. It focuses on the impact anticompetitive conduct can have on labor as an economic input.

Fuel market

The issue involving gas stations is closely related to the structure of Brazil’s fuel market. The retail segment is where competition is almost entirely free of regulation, which is why so many cases arise there. Fuel is also a homogeneous product, meaning prices tend to be very similar, which naturally creates suspicions of cartel behavior.

Aviation

CADE recently approved the deal between Azul and United Airlines, while the transaction between Azul and American Airlines remains under review by the Superintendent-General’s Office. In the case of United, there was a smaller ownership stake in Azul, making it less problematic from a competition perspective. In the case of American, a more careful analysis may be necessary regarding this type of cross-shareholding.

Master and BRB

The transaction involving Banco Master and Banco de Brasília (BRB) was reviewed by the Superintendent-General’s Office long before the issue became widely publicized. It followed the normal merger-review process. The banking market, particularly among smaller banks, generally does not present major competition concerns. From a competition standpoint, there were no significant issues. The Central Bank examined the broader systemic-risk concerns and reached its own conclusions. At CADE, the case never even reached the tribunal.

*By Beatriz Olivon — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

The U.S. government said Thursday (28) that it will designate the criminal factions Comando Vermelho (CV, or Red Command) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC, or First Capital Command) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs). The U.S. State Department said the designation will take effect on June 5.

The announcement came two days after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, Rio de Janeiro), a presidential hopeful, visited U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.. After leaving the meeting, Flávio said he had urged the U.S. government to classify the factions as foreign terrorist organizations. Shortly after the statement was released, the senator noted the decision on social media and wrote: “Great day,” the same expression used by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party).

The measure follows Trump’s earlier designation of several criminal groups from Mexico and other countries as terrorist organizations.

The Brazilian government is concerned about the move. It fears the designation could open the door to U.S. interference on Brazilian soil.

Celso Amorim, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s special adviser for international affairs, told G1 on Thursday night that organized crime must be fought, but security is a national matter: “Public security is a fundamental issue for socioeconomic development. Organized crime is an evil that must be fought. International cooperation is welcome, especially on issues such as money laundering and arms smuggling. A pretext for intervention is unacceptable,” Amorim said.

President Lula visited the White House earlier this month in an effort to prevent what Brazil sees as a counterproductive measure that would pose risks both to its financial system and to its sovereignty. Instead, the Brazilian president sought to persuade Trump to deepen U.S. cooperation with his government’s efforts to fight groups such as the PCC, targeting money-laundering operations and smuggling networks.

‘Regional threat’

In the statement, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the PCC and CV are two of Brazil’s most violent organizations and that, together, they “command thousands of members and orchestrate brutal attacks” against civilians, police officers, and authorities. “Their influence and illicit networks extend far beyond Brazil’s borders, across our region and into our country,” the statement said.

Rubio said the Trump administration will use all available tools to safeguard U.S. security interests and disrupt “the revenue streams funding violent narco-terrorists.” “Today’s action taken by the State Department further demonstrates the Trump Administration’s unwavering commitment to dismantling cartels and criminal organizations in our region and ensuring the safety of the American people. ”

The U.S. measure is also expected to create uncertainty across the financial and economic system as banks and other companies seek to understand its implications. Last year, the U.S. targeted three Mexican banks over possible money laundering tied to drug trafficking, effectively cutting them off from the U.S. financial system. In recent years, Brazilian authorities have said they found evidence that the PCC launders money through fintechs.

(With Bloomberg)

By Lilian Venturini — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on Wednesday (27) in an exclusive interview with Valor that he is working under the assumption that the government will subsidize diesel next week, as the current exemption on federal fuel taxes is set to expire on Sunday (31). He said the subsidy could reach R$0.35 per liter, depending on fluctuations in Brent crude prices over the coming days.

“Today, I am working with the idea of maintaining the current subsidy at R$0.35, but that still needs to be assessed,” he said. “Every day matters because [Brent prices] have been highly volatile, and we need to calibrate the measure, including to protect fiscal accounts,” he added.

The diesel subsidy will be necessary because the complementary bill that would allow the government to grant tax exemptions on fuels has not yet been approved by Congress.

Durigan stressed that the government will not use the additional revenue generated by oil prices to improve fiscal results. The goal, he said, is to mitigate the effects of the war on the population and economic sectors.

“My role here is not just about fiscal policy. Of course, that is my primary role—to take care of the country’s fiscal situation—but not only that. I also need to ensure the country appears in the UNDP [United Nations Development Programme] report, as happened yesterday [Tuesday] for the first time, reaching the level of very high human development, which involves longevity, education, and income.”

On Monday, the UNDP announced that Brazil had reached the category of very high human development for the first time in history, with an index of 0.805 in 2024.

In the interview with Valor, the minister also said the Finance Ministry is working on a proposal to raise the revenue ceiling for qualification as an Individual Microentrepreneur (MEI), in line with an agreement reached between the federal government and the Chamber of Deputies. The adjustment would apply only to MEIs, not to companies under the Simples Nacional tax regime. As a result, the fiscal impact would remain below R$10 billion, according to Durigan.

“We will implement this [increase in the MEI ceiling] gradually. I still don’t know whether it will happen in 2027 or 2028, but probably along those lines,” he said. Currently, the annual revenue ceiling for MEIs is R$81,000.

According to the minister, the proposal would also allow MEIs to hire two employees instead of only one, as currently permitted. In addition, he said he would like to use the bill to correct other distortions, such as requiring small companies that hire more than five MEIs to contribute to the social security system.

“It’s something I can take to Speaker Hugo,” he said, referring to Brazil’s Lower House speaker, Hugo Motta.

The bill currently under discussion in the Chamber, already approved by the Senate, is broader and includes adjustments for individual microentrepreneurs, microenterprises, and small businesses. According to estimates by the economic team, the proposal would have a fiscal impact of R$48.5 billion in 2027 and R$53.7 billion in 2028.

*By Jéssica Sant’Ana, Lu Aiko Otta And Giordanna Neves — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

A apresentação de seguro-garantia judicial em substituição ao depósito recursal exige o cumprimento de requisitos rígidos. A existência de cláusula de desobrigação ou rescisão na apólice invalida o documento, o que resulta na deserção do recurso por falta de garantia do juízo.

 

 

 

27 de maio de 2026

 

Com base nesse entendimento, a 3ª Turma do Tribunal Superior do Trabalho negou o andamento do recurso de uma empresa da Companhia Energética de São Paulo (Cesp), uma antiga estatal de energia, devido à invalidade da apólice apresentada para garantir uma execução trabalhista. A decisão foi unânime.

atestado documento contrato papel adulterado rasgado rasurado inválido

Para TST, apólice com cláusula de desobrigação não substitui depósito recursal

O caso concreto envolve uma reclamação trabalhista ajuizada por um ex-funcionário contra a companhia. Durante a fase recursal, ao tentar levar o processo à corte superior por meio de um recurso de revista, a empresa optou por substituir o depósito exigido por lei por uma apólice de seguro-garantia judicial. Contudo, o documento apresentado continha uma cláusula (item 4.1) que previa hipóteses de desobrigação.

Diante da irregularidade, o Tribunal Regional do Trabalho da 15ª Região (interior de São Paulo) barrou o recurso, declarando-o deserto — ou seja, sem o devido pagamento do preparo. Inconformada, a empregadora recorreu ao TST por meio de agravo de instrumento.

A companhia argumentou que a apólice não infringia as regras, alegando que não havia previsão de rescisão por iniciativa do tomador, mas apenas situações de perda de direito relacionadas a fraudes. A recorrente pediu a aceitação do documento, afirmando que a rejeição violaria o seu direito constitucional ao contraditório e à ampla defesa.

Ao analisar o agravo, o relator do caso, ministro Mauricio Godinho Delgado, rejeitou os argumentos da empresa. O magistrado explicou que a substituição do depósito por seguro é permitida pela CLT, mas demanda a estrita observância do Ato Conjunto TST.CSJT.CGJT 1/2019.

O julgador ressaltou que o parágrafo 1º do artigo 3º da referida norma proíbe expressamente que o contrato contenha qualquer cláusula de desobrigação ou que permita a rescisão, ainda que de forma bilateral. O ministro atestou que a inobservância dessa regra equivale à ausência de depósito recursal, o que atrai a Súmula 245 do TST e gera a deserção imediata.

“Dessa forma, a Corte Regional não conheceu do recurso de revista interposto pela Reclamada, porque deserto, em obediência ao disposto no artigo 6º, item II, do mesmo Ato Conjunto”, apontou o ministro.

O relator também rebateu a alegação da empresa de que a apólice continha um subitem anulando a desobrigação. Ele demonstrou que o documento listava situações que, se ocorressem, extinguiriam a garantia, o que inviabiliza a segurança financeira exigida no processo.

“Nesse contexto, destaca-se que a garantia do Juízo deve ser concreta e efetiva, sendo, assim, incompatível com a documentação apresentada, motivo pelo qual não há como se afastar a deserção imposta ao recurso de revista da recorrente”, concluiu.


AgAIRR 0010215-34.2022.5.15.0127

Com informações da assessoria de imprensa do TST.

Fonte: Conjur

A parte não tem o direito de fazer um segundo pedido escrito de esclarecimentos ao perito após a modificação do laudo em resposta ao primeiro pedido, conforme o entendimento firmado pela 3ª Turma do Superior Tribunal de Justiça. O colegiado ressaltou, contudo, que a parte pode solicitar ao juízo a intimação do perito para comparecer à audiência de instrução e julgamento.

 

 

 

 

27 de maio de 2026

 

 

Magnific

laudo pericial contrato cláusula

Para o STJ, parte não tem direito de fazer segundo pedido de esclarecimentos

Na liquidação de sentença que deu origem ao recurso julgado pela turma, após o primeiro pedido de esclarecimentos da parte, a perita judicial apresentou novos cálculos, nos quais o valor da execução foi reduzido em ao menos R$ 8 milhões.

Devido à divergência dos valores apresentados no primeiro e no segundo laudos, a parte apresentou novo requerimento de esclarecimentos por escrito. O juízo, entretanto, indeferiu o pedido e determinou o envio dos cálculos periciais à contadoria judicial. O Tribunal de Justiça do Amazonas manteve o indeferimento.

No recurso especial ao STJ, a parte insistiu no direito de impugnar o que considera um novo laudo pericial, pois, após os primeiros esclarecimentos, a perita teria modificado completamente a metodologia de cálculo e, portanto, o resultado final. E sustentou que o indeferimento do segundo pedido violou os princípios do contraditório e da ampla defesa.

Perito na audiência

Relatora do recurso, a ministra Nancy Andrighi explicou que, apresentado o laudo pericial, a parte tem o direito de formular um pedido escrito de esclarecimentos ao perito. A magistrada disse também que, se a resposta ainda deixar dúvidas sobre o laudo, a parte deverá utilizar a previsão do artigo 477, parágrafo 3º, do Código de Processo Civil (CPC) e solicitar a intimação do perito para que compareça à audiência de instrução e julgamento.

“O sistema processual, ao exigir a audiência para a segunda rodada de esclarecimentos, visa justamente coibir essa litigância repetitiva e garantir a celeridade”, afirmou a relatora.

No caso julgado, de acordo com a ministra, como a parte se limitou a formular novos quesitos por petição escrita, sem pedir a intimação do perito para a audiência, o indeferimento foi legítimo e não configurou violação ao contraditório ou à ampla defesa.

Discricionariedade do julgador

Nancy Andrighi salientou ainda que a parte também pode requerer a verificação de erro material de cálculo (artigo 494, inciso I, do CPC) ou, se a matéria ainda não estiver suficientemente esclarecida, uma nova perícia (artigo 480 do CPC), providências que estão sujeitas à discricionariedade do julgador — que, como destinatário da prova e condutor do processo, tem o poder de indeferir medidas consideradas protelatórias, conforme o artigo 370 do CPC.

“Tais faculdades podem ser exercidas ex officio, mas não configuram obrigações impositivas ao julgador, que avalia sua necessidade à luz da busca pela verdade processual e da utilidade da prova”, concluiu a ministra. Com informações da assessoria de imprensa do STJ.

REsp 2.197.447

Fonte: STJ

 

 

The proportion of Black professionals at Brazil’s largest law firms has increased over the past eight years. From a virtually nonexistent share in 2018, it rose to 11.3% in 2021 and reached 13.4% in 2025, according to data from the latest census by the Legal Alliance for Racial Equity, to be released today.

The Alliance currently brings together 14 law firms. The census, however, was conducted at 10 of them, covering a total of 7,486 employees in legal and administrative departments. Because participation is voluntary, about 54% of workers responded to the survey. The results showed progress, but there is still room for improvement, according to specialists.

Created in 2017, the Alliance brings together firms that have already implemented inclusion and retention programs focused on racial diversity. The initiatives include strategies to increase the hiring of Black candidates, offer training programs, and improve the retention and promotion of professionals.

This year, the Alliance is being chaired by a Black lawyer for the first time. Robson de Oliveira, a partner at Demarest Advogados, says that after an initial phase of awareness-raising and a focus on hiring, the plan for the coming years is to find ways to increase the retention of Black talent at law firms.

“The survey is a diagnosis that helped us realize that talent retention is one of the biggest bottlenecks for expanding diversity. Although some turnover is normal and even desirable, as firms train professionals, they begin to draw more attention from the market,” he says.

Among the training activities, the law firms that are part of the Alliance offer, for example, English courses and mentoring, helping prepare résumés that highlight experience and offering guidance on networking, among other topics. “Many times, the professionals served are the first generation with a college degree, so they don’t have family guidance on these things,” says Robson de Oliveira.

Barbara Rosenberg, a partner at BMA and an Alliance adviser, adds that the Quota Law (Law 12711 of 2012) helped Black students gain the opportunity to stand out academically, but the next step was still missing. “The greatest difficulty was getting these excellent students, from excellent universities, to Faria Lima,” she says.

And when Black students and recent graduates arrive at large law firms, they bring skills and abilities that set them apart from other candidates, according to Renata Scuba, of Mattos Filho. “Behavioral skills, commitment, resilience, and a drive that is hard to see in those who already come from a background full of opportunities,” she says.

According to her, this is also why it is so important to ensure racial literacy within law firms, alongside professional training, so that leaders in decision-making positions recognize these differentiators. Robson de Oliveira agrees: “We need to accelerate change from the top down.”

As for the next challenges, the lawyer adds, the greatest will be not losing the ground already gained—in addition to advancing in hiring and retaining professionals. The presence of Black professionals in director-level positions, for example, rose from 5.6% to 7.8% between the previous census and this one.

Luiza Sato, a partner at TozziniFreire, points out that the Alliance prioritizes an intersectional approach to addressing these difficulties. “When we cross-check the data, Black women in leadership positions are practically nonexistent,” she says.

Lawyer Isadora Almeida, who joined Demarest in 2019, three years after graduating from PUC, to work in capital markets, is one of the beneficiaries of the Alliance’s initiatives. When she became a senior lawyer in 2023, she expressed a desire to take an international course. She was accepted by several universities with scholarships and chose the University of Pennsylvania, where she received a 60% scholarship. The remainder, as well as housing and tuition expenses, was paid by Demarest through its internal D Raízes program.

Even in a Master of Laws (LLM) program—an advanced graduate law degree aimed at the international community, with students from more than 40 nationalities—Isadora studied with only three other Black students. “It was just three African students and me in my year,” she says. After the course, she also spent a year working at a U.S. firm as an international lawyer.

She says the opportunity was very important for her career. “The LLM is already a very good course for opening minds, very strong in networking and preparation for cross-border work. For those who work with transnational law, it is a more important experience than any academic one; it opens opportunities for attracting clients,” she explains. She currently sits on the board of the D Raízes program.

According to Robson de Oliveira, the Legal Alliance for Racial Equity’s current focus is on maintaining awareness-raising events. Earlier this month, the initiative brought two judges to speak to lawyers at the firms about the application of the National Council of Justice’s (CNJ) Racial Protocol. Topics such as algorithmic discrimination and racial biases in artificial intelligence have already been addressed. The next event, with no theme defined yet, is expected to take place in late June.

The firms that took part in the survey were BMA, Demarest, Lefosse, Lobo de Rizzo, Mattos Filho, Pinheiro Neto, Stocche Forbes, TozziniFreire, Trench Rossi Watanabe, and Veirano.

*By Luiza Calegari — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/