Seguro-garantia com cláusula de cancelamento não substitui depósito recursal

A apresentação de seguro-garantia judicial em substituição ao depósito recursal exige o cumprimento de requisitos rígidos. A existência de cláusula de desobrigação ou rescisão na apólice invalida o documento, o que resulta na deserção do recurso por falta de garantia do juízo.

 

 

 

27 de maio de 2026

 

Com base nesse entendimento, a 3ª Turma do Tribunal Superior do Trabalho negou o andamento do recurso de uma empresa da Companhia Energética de São Paulo (Cesp), uma antiga estatal de energia, devido à invalidade da apólice apresentada para garantir uma execução trabalhista. A decisão foi unânime.

atestado documento contrato papel adulterado rasgado rasurado inválido

Para TST, apólice com cláusula de desobrigação não substitui depósito recursal

O caso concreto envolve uma reclamação trabalhista ajuizada por um ex-funcionário contra a companhia. Durante a fase recursal, ao tentar levar o processo à corte superior por meio de um recurso de revista, a empresa optou por substituir o depósito exigido por lei por uma apólice de seguro-garantia judicial. Contudo, o documento apresentado continha uma cláusula (item 4.1) que previa hipóteses de desobrigação.

Diante da irregularidade, o Tribunal Regional do Trabalho da 15ª Região (interior de São Paulo) barrou o recurso, declarando-o deserto — ou seja, sem o devido pagamento do preparo. Inconformada, a empregadora recorreu ao TST por meio de agravo de instrumento.

A companhia argumentou que a apólice não infringia as regras, alegando que não havia previsão de rescisão por iniciativa do tomador, mas apenas situações de perda de direito relacionadas a fraudes. A recorrente pediu a aceitação do documento, afirmando que a rejeição violaria o seu direito constitucional ao contraditório e à ampla defesa.

Ao analisar o agravo, o relator do caso, ministro Mauricio Godinho Delgado, rejeitou os argumentos da empresa. O magistrado explicou que a substituição do depósito por seguro é permitida pela CLT, mas demanda a estrita observância do Ato Conjunto TST.CSJT.CGJT 1/2019.

O julgador ressaltou que o parágrafo 1º do artigo 3º da referida norma proíbe expressamente que o contrato contenha qualquer cláusula de desobrigação ou que permita a rescisão, ainda que de forma bilateral. O ministro atestou que a inobservância dessa regra equivale à ausência de depósito recursal, o que atrai a Súmula 245 do TST e gera a deserção imediata.

“Dessa forma, a Corte Regional não conheceu do recurso de revista interposto pela Reclamada, porque deserto, em obediência ao disposto no artigo 6º, item II, do mesmo Ato Conjunto”, apontou o ministro.

O relator também rebateu a alegação da empresa de que a apólice continha um subitem anulando a desobrigação. Ele demonstrou que o documento listava situações que, se ocorressem, extinguiriam a garantia, o que inviabiliza a segurança financeira exigida no processo.

“Nesse contexto, destaca-se que a garantia do Juízo deve ser concreta e efetiva, sendo, assim, incompatível com a documentação apresentada, motivo pelo qual não há como se afastar a deserção imposta ao recurso de revista da recorrente”, concluiu.


AgAIRR 0010215-34.2022.5.15.0127

Com informações da assessoria de imprensa do TST.

Fonte: Conjur

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Parte não tem direito a segundo pedido escrito de esclarecimentos ao perito

A parte não tem o direito de fazer um segundo pedido escrito de esclarecimentos ao perito após a modificação do laudo em resposta ao primeiro pedido, conforme o entendimento firmado pela 3ª Turma do Superior Tribunal de Justiça. O colegiado ressaltou, contudo, que a parte pode solicitar ao juízo a intimação do perito para comparecer à audiência de instrução e julgamento.

 

 

 

 

27 de maio de 2026

 

 

Magnific

laudo pericial contrato cláusula

Para o STJ, parte não tem direito de fazer segundo pedido de esclarecimentos

Na liquidação de sentença que deu origem ao recurso julgado pela turma, após o primeiro pedido de esclarecimentos da parte, a perita judicial apresentou novos cálculos, nos quais o valor da execução foi reduzido em ao menos R$ 8 milhões.

Devido à divergência dos valores apresentados no primeiro e no segundo laudos, a parte apresentou novo requerimento de esclarecimentos por escrito. O juízo, entretanto, indeferiu o pedido e determinou o envio dos cálculos periciais à contadoria judicial. O Tribunal de Justiça do Amazonas manteve o indeferimento.

No recurso especial ao STJ, a parte insistiu no direito de impugnar o que considera um novo laudo pericial, pois, após os primeiros esclarecimentos, a perita teria modificado completamente a metodologia de cálculo e, portanto, o resultado final. E sustentou que o indeferimento do segundo pedido violou os princípios do contraditório e da ampla defesa.

Perito na audiência

Relatora do recurso, a ministra Nancy Andrighi explicou que, apresentado o laudo pericial, a parte tem o direito de formular um pedido escrito de esclarecimentos ao perito. A magistrada disse também que, se a resposta ainda deixar dúvidas sobre o laudo, a parte deverá utilizar a previsão do artigo 477, parágrafo 3º, do Código de Processo Civil (CPC) e solicitar a intimação do perito para que compareça à audiência de instrução e julgamento.

“O sistema processual, ao exigir a audiência para a segunda rodada de esclarecimentos, visa justamente coibir essa litigância repetitiva e garantir a celeridade”, afirmou a relatora.

No caso julgado, de acordo com a ministra, como a parte se limitou a formular novos quesitos por petição escrita, sem pedir a intimação do perito para a audiência, o indeferimento foi legítimo e não configurou violação ao contraditório ou à ampla defesa.

Discricionariedade do julgador

Nancy Andrighi salientou ainda que a parte também pode requerer a verificação de erro material de cálculo (artigo 494, inciso I, do CPC) ou, se a matéria ainda não estiver suficientemente esclarecida, uma nova perícia (artigo 480 do CPC), providências que estão sujeitas à discricionariedade do julgador — que, como destinatário da prova e condutor do processo, tem o poder de indeferir medidas consideradas protelatórias, conforme o artigo 370 do CPC.

“Tais faculdades podem ser exercidas ex officio, mas não configuram obrigações impositivas ao julgador, que avalia sua necessidade à luz da busca pela verdade processual e da utilidade da prova”, concluiu a ministra. Com informações da assessoria de imprensa do STJ.

REsp 2.197.447

Fonte: STJ

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Black professionals make up 13.4% of lawyers at Brazil’s largest firms

This figure comes from the latest census by the Legal Alliance for Racial Equity, slated for release on Thursday (21)

 

 

The proportion of Black professionals at Brazil’s largest law firms has increased over the past eight years. From a virtually nonexistent share in 2018, it rose to 11.3% in 2021 and reached 13.4% in 2025, according to data from the latest census by the Legal Alliance for Racial Equity, to be released today.

The Alliance currently brings together 14 law firms. The census, however, was conducted at 10 of them, covering a total of 7,486 employees in legal and administrative departments. Because participation is voluntary, about 54% of workers responded to the survey. The results showed progress, but there is still room for improvement, according to specialists.

Created in 2017, the Alliance brings together firms that have already implemented inclusion and retention programs focused on racial diversity. The initiatives include strategies to increase the hiring of Black candidates, offer training programs, and improve the retention and promotion of professionals.

This year, the Alliance is being chaired by a Black lawyer for the first time. Robson de Oliveira, a partner at Demarest Advogados, says that after an initial phase of awareness-raising and a focus on hiring, the plan for the coming years is to find ways to increase the retention of Black talent at law firms.

“The survey is a diagnosis that helped us realize that talent retention is one of the biggest bottlenecks for expanding diversity. Although some turnover is normal and even desirable, as firms train professionals, they begin to draw more attention from the market,” he says.

Among the training activities, the law firms that are part of the Alliance offer, for example, English courses and mentoring, helping prepare résumés that highlight experience and offering guidance on networking, among other topics. “Many times, the professionals served are the first generation with a college degree, so they don’t have family guidance on these things,” says Robson de Oliveira.

Barbara Rosenberg, a partner at BMA and an Alliance adviser, adds that the Quota Law (Law 12711 of 2012) helped Black students gain the opportunity to stand out academically, but the next step was still missing. “The greatest difficulty was getting these excellent students, from excellent universities, to Faria Lima,” she says.

And when Black students and recent graduates arrive at large law firms, they bring skills and abilities that set them apart from other candidates, according to Renata Scuba, of Mattos Filho. “Behavioral skills, commitment, resilience, and a drive that is hard to see in those who already come from a background full of opportunities,” she says.

According to her, this is also why it is so important to ensure racial literacy within law firms, alongside professional training, so that leaders in decision-making positions recognize these differentiators. Robson de Oliveira agrees: “We need to accelerate change from the top down.”

As for the next challenges, the lawyer adds, the greatest will be not losing the ground already gained—in addition to advancing in hiring and retaining professionals. The presence of Black professionals in director-level positions, for example, rose from 5.6% to 7.8% between the previous census and this one.

Luiza Sato, a partner at TozziniFreire, points out that the Alliance prioritizes an intersectional approach to addressing these difficulties. “When we cross-check the data, Black women in leadership positions are practically nonexistent,” she says.

Lawyer Isadora Almeida, who joined Demarest in 2019, three years after graduating from PUC, to work in capital markets, is one of the beneficiaries of the Alliance’s initiatives. When she became a senior lawyer in 2023, she expressed a desire to take an international course. She was accepted by several universities with scholarships and chose the University of Pennsylvania, where she received a 60% scholarship. The remainder, as well as housing and tuition expenses, was paid by Demarest through its internal D Raízes program.

Even in a Master of Laws (LLM) program—an advanced graduate law degree aimed at the international community, with students from more than 40 nationalities—Isadora studied with only three other Black students. “It was just three African students and me in my year,” she says. After the course, she also spent a year working at a U.S. firm as an international lawyer.

She says the opportunity was very important for her career. “The LLM is already a very good course for opening minds, very strong in networking and preparation for cross-border work. For those who work with transnational law, it is a more important experience than any academic one; it opens opportunities for attracting clients,” she explains. She currently sits on the board of the D Raízes program.

According to Robson de Oliveira, the Legal Alliance for Racial Equity’s current focus is on maintaining awareness-raising events. Earlier this month, the initiative brought two judges to speak to lawyers at the firms about the application of the National Council of Justice’s (CNJ) Racial Protocol. Topics such as algorithmic discrimination and racial biases in artificial intelligence have already been addressed. The next event, with no theme defined yet, is expected to take place in late June.

The firms that took part in the survey were BMA, Demarest, Lefosse, Lobo de Rizzo, Mattos Filho, Pinheiro Neto, Stocche Forbes, TozziniFreire, Trench Rossi Watanabe, and Veirano.

*By Luiza Calegari — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Regulation and scale challenge startups

Transition to midsize status can take up to eight years, depending on sector and capital runway

 

 

In 2011, when Carime Vitória da Silva Rodrigues applied for an undergraduate research scholarship at the Chemistry Institute of the University of Brasília (UnB), she did not imagine that her nanotechnology research would become the seed of a startup. Founded in 2019 within UnB’s Technological Development Support Center by Rodrigues and professor Marcelo Oliveira, Krilltech Nanotecnologia Agro began operations with a single product, derived from the application of carbon nanoparticles to enhance plant metabolism. Today, the company has filed a patent in Brazil, has five products in its portfolio, and expects to generate around R$15 million in revenue in 2026.

Marcelo Oliveira, who holds a PhD in inorganic chemistry and is a professor at UnB, says that, unlike other deep tech startups—those that innovate based on scientific research—Krilltech grew by overcoming regulatory barriers. Another differentiator is its care in obtaining licenses. Krilltech’s products are liquid solutions containing spherical carbon nanoparticles, each approximately 56.5 million times smaller than a soccer ball, and are applied to plants or soil. The technology improves plant development, making it more efficient and healthier.

“The biggest challenge for deep techs, in any segment, is overcoming regulatory barriers, especially in sectors where these requirements are very high, particularly in obtaining licenses,” says Oliveira, who is also Krilltech’s CEO.

The maturity level of an innovation before it can be considered operational in a commercial environment is measured by the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) model, which has 9 levels. In Oliveira’s view, the most critical period for a startup is reaching TRL stages 7, 8, and 9, when products need to pass commercial-scale tests.

Based in a 1,200-square-meter plant in Brasília, Krilltech began exporting its products to the European Union, Peru, and Uruguay in 2025. In late April this year, the company was one of six selected for the Al Miyah challenge, held in the United Arab Emirates to address agricultural water scarcity. Krilltech competed against 846 teams from 54 countries, and the challenge winner will be announced at the end of this year.

Commercial production, which began in 2021, gained scale after Krilltech signed a marketing agreement with Casa Bugre in December 2022. A distributor of high-performance agricultural inputs in Brazil’s agribusiness market for more than four decades, Casa Bugre invested R$7 million in Krilltech in 2024.

“Our production in 2025 was 30 times higher than in 2021, when we were a startup. We expect to grow 26% this year,” says Carime Rodrigues, who holds a PhD in chemistry from UnB and is Krilltech’s research and development director.

Overcoming regulatory barriers also challenges those developing innovations in finance. This scenario led to the creation of Pinheiro Neto’s Legal Acceleration Program for Startups, which is marking 10 years of operations. Coordinated by lawyer Bruno Balduccini, a partner at Pinheiro Neto, the program has advised 46 startups—17 of which raised financing or put their businesses on investors’ radar for a sale. Companies such as Pier Seguradora and corporate benefits company Caju have gone through the program.

Balduccini notes that the maturation period for a startup to reach annual revenue above R$20 million can take up to eight years. This period varies depending on the sector, capital runway, and the company’s execution capacity. “B2B software companies, fintechs, and SaaS [software as a service] companies usually manage to reach scale more quickly because of recurring revenue and greater operational scalability. More regulated sectors or those intensive in physical operations—such as logistics, healthcare, and climate tech—tend to require longer cycles,” he says.

The lawyer noticed that innovative companies in segments such as finance and insurance struggled to comply with regulations without legal support. “The program advises those with a good idea who can’t afford our hourly rates. Payment happens when the startup raises funds; we receive part of what it raises in cash,” he explains.

One successful case in Pinheiro Neto’s program is Exato Digital, a technology company that conducts background checks on individuals and companies. The startup emerged from a software consulting firm founded by André Takitani Pires and Leandro Villani Cambraia Casella, technology professionals and friends from their time at Professor Camargo Aranha State Technical School in Mooca in the late 1990s.

Exato was founded in 2019 in response to demand from consulting clients for an automated service to verify documents, certifications, and certificates. The partners realized they had a product with potential to scale and that worked very well from a technological standpoint. However, with the enactment of the General Personal Data Protection Act (Law 13709 of August 14, 2018), known as LGPD, Exato needed to invest in legal advice.

“At the time, we didn’t have the budget to hire a firm the size of Pinheiro Neto. The program fit like a glove because we could pay with part of the investment that would still be raised,” Casella says.

With its participation in the law firm’s program, which began in 2020, Exato attracted clients such as Bradesco, which became one of the startup’s investors. In April, the company’s revenue totaled R$2.5 million. The projection is to end December this year with monthly revenue of R$5 million. Exato’s client portfolio includes companies such as Uber, Bradesco, Stone, JBS, Fleury, Habib’s, McDonald’s, Banco BMG, Drogaria São Paulo, and Espaçolaser.

In the last quarter of 2025, Exato raised R$20 million in a Series A round led by Quartzo Capital and Bradesco. Casella says the company has reached break-even and can reinvest its revenue. “We have been growing at break-even; we are no longer in the red, which is excellent for this moment because the venture capital market depends heavily on interest-rate behavior,” Casella says.

By Suzana Liskauskas — Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Tax overhaul clouds outlook for infrastructure concessions

Companies warn delayed compensation rules could strain cash flow and disrupt operations from sanitation to highways

Sabesp wastewater treatment plant in São Paulo — Foto: Divulgação
Sabesp wastewater treatment plant in São Paulo — Photo: Divulgação

Brazil’s infrastructure market sees a high risk of delays in adapting to the tax reform, which begins to take effect in 2027. Companies are already preparing a wave of requests to rebalance contracts, but there are concerns that delays could hurt concessionaires’ cash flow and, in some cases, make operations unviable in segments that currently do not even issue invoices.

Concerns about the tax changes are not limited to infrastructure. But unlike other sectors, concessionaires are not free to adjust prices and pass on cost increases, said tax lawyer Jorge Lopes, a partner at Pinheiro Neto Advogados. “It is a sector of long-term contracts. Other sectors have more freedom to react quickly to impacts,” he said.

Sanitation companies are in the most dramatic situation, according to companies and tax lawyers. The sector, which does not pay municipal and state taxes, was left out of the exemption list in the reform. Abcon, the association representing private sanitation companies, estimates that the average impact on tariffs could reach 18%, considering that the tax rate would rise from the current level of as much as 9.25% to 26.5%, according to preliminary calculations.

The law recognizes that infrastructure concessionaires have the right to compensation for tax increases, through tariff increases, for example. However, calculating and applying that compensation is often difficult and slow.

In sanitation, companies have not even reached the stage of discussing contract rebalancing because they are still in an earlier, more bureaucratic phase: understanding how invoices will be issued for taxes from which they are currently exempt, said Abcon president, Christianne Dias.

“There is a working group with the Federal Revenue Service, but the rule is not ready. There is a lot of anxiety among members. In January 2027, companies will start facing fines, and no one knows yet what the system will look like,” she said.

Worse than the fines, there is a risk that companies’ operations could be halted without this system, said André Menon, a tax partner at law firm Machado Meyer. “Because of the validation rules, which are the minimum information required for a tax document to be issued, the taxpayer cannot even operate. The company would not be able to bill for water, for example.”

Asked about the issue, the Federal Revenue Service said there are “no more uncertainties,” since the manuals on water and sanitation invoices were published in April. Abcon, however, said it is still waiting for a guide with the clarifications companies need to develop their systems, and that the outlook remains unclear.

Once that stage is cleared, sanitation companies will still have to deal with contract rebalancing, another issue that is more complex in the sector because of the large number of regulatory agencies. “There are 110 agencies, so standardizing the methodology is very difficult,” Dias said.

Abcon believes the solution will be to negotiate a reference rule with ANA, the National Water and Sanitation Agency, which sets the parameters that local agencies must follow. So far, however, talks with the federal agency have not advanced. Outside that framework, rebalancing itself can only be granted by the local authority. “The risk is that the sector will grind to a halt and investment will be frozen,” Dias said. ANA declined to comment.

Preventive rebalancing

For highways, talks with the largest agencies, ANTT, the National Land Transportation Agency, and Artesp, the São Paulo State Transportation Agency, are already underway, but regulators have not yet put forward a concrete proposal.

“The main concern is to give momentum to the issue with a view to concluding it still in 2026, so that 2027 begins with the [contract rebalancing calculation] methodology in place and concessionaires do not face a cash-flow mismatch,” said Marco Aurélio Barcelos, president of the Brazilian Association of Highway Concessionaires (ABCR).

He said it is difficult to quantify the average impact of the reform because it varies greatly from case to case. In more recent contracts, where there are still more works to be carried out, the effect is smaller, since taxes can be offset with credits generated by investments. More mature projects, where works have already been delivered, are more affected.

ABCR’s proposal is to work with annual precautionary rebalancing, anticipating the effects, instead of waiting for the impacts to occur and only then filing rebalancing requests, as usually happens. “The idea is to project the impacts of the reform for 2027 at the end of 2026 and already carry out a rebalancing. At the end of the year, we will have the actual information on the impact and, with that, make the adjustment.”

ABCR argues that this should be done every year, always with advance compensation for the following year, along with an assessment of the previous year, supported by independent verifiers.

Sector agencies still do not have a proposal, but there are signs that the precautionary rebalancing model could be adopted in the case of the tax reform.

ANTT Director General Guilherme Sampaio said in a statement that the possibility of precautionary and evidence-based rebalancing is being considered. “At this moment, however, there is still no definitive methodology approved by ANTT,” he said. Sampaio noted that he understands companies’ concerns and stressed that ANTT should address the issue “as quickly as possible, without compromising technical consistency and legal certainty.”

Artesp said it is preparing a methodology “based on objective technical criteria, taking into account the specific characteristics of each concession.”

Risk matrix

The National Civil Aviation Agency (Anac), which regulates airports, said it has a working group with companies to discuss the methodology for calculating the impacts. The National Waterway Transportation Agency (Antaq), which oversees ports, said that “any requests must demonstrate the causal link, the materiality of the impact and its adherence to the risk matrix.”

The Federal Revenue Service noted that the law gives regulatory agencies 90 days to respond to rebalancing requests, with a one-time extension of another 90 days.

Despite concerns over the start of implementation, Pinheiro Neto’s Lopes said the reform will be phased in.

In 2027, Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) will take effect, replacing federal taxes. Starting in 2029, the transition to Tax on Goods and Services (IBS), which will replace state and municipal taxes, will begin. A testing phase is already starting this year.

Lopes also said segments such as energy and telecommunications, which already face high tax rates, should feel less of an impact.

The infrastructure segment that will benefit the most is public transportation, which will be exempt.

Even in that sector, however, there are doubts. For example, in the case of subway operators, it is not clear what treatment will apply to subcontracting in operations and maintenance, which is common, Machado Meyer’s Menon said.

*By Taís Hirata — São Paulo

Source: Valor Internatiuonal

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Foreign investors cut Brazil exposure, cooling stock rally

Outflows from Brazilian stocks reach R$11.4bn in May as oil, global rates and tech rotation reshape risk appetite

 

 

Over the past 30 days, non-resident investors have put money into Brazil’s stock exchange in only two sessions, and the amounts were almost symbolic. In May alone, withdrawals total R$11.4 billion, in a possible sign that the rally in Brazilian stocks has come to an end.

The shift in foreign investors’ mood had already been flagged by Intraday at the start of the week, but it has intensified since then. It is no coincidence that the benchmark Ibovespa stock index has moved away from its record level of 199,000 points and fell below 180,000 points on Thursday (21).

From the start of the year through the peak reached on April 14, Brazil’s equity market saw inflows of R$69 billion from foreign investors, according to B3 data. That was almost three times the amount that entered the market in all of 2025, when inflows totaled R$25.4 billion.

Since April 15, however, investors have withdrawn R$23.9 billion, a little more than one-third of the volume that had entered the stock market in 2026. During that period, there were inflows in only two sessions: April 20, when R$32 million entered the market, and May 8, when net inflows totaled R$118.8 million.

“The mood has turned more negative,” Bank of America strategists David Beker and Paula Andrea Soto said after a round of meetings with investors in London and Paris in recent days.

“Concerns about the external backdrop, combined with recent political developments in the region, are prompting investors to take a more cautious stance. A few weeks ago, clients were waiting for the war to end before increasing exposure to Latin America. Now, the main question is whether exposure to the region will need to be reduced further,” said the BofA team in a note to clients.

War and oil reshape the outlook

In mid-April, foreign investors were extremely optimistic about Brazil, as Intraday reported several times, especially during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund.

The country was seen as a relative beneficiary of the war backdrop because it is a net oil exporter, is rich in natural resources and is geographically distant from the conflict. In addition, with the highest real interest rates in the world, the approaching cycle of Selic base-rate cuts was seen as another attraction for domestic stocks.

Since then, however, the market mood has changed decisively. The absence of a quick resolution to the war in the Persian Gulf has imposed a high floor for oil prices, which have struggled to trade below $100 on a sustained basis.

As a result, the impact on inflation is being felt around the world. Fearing second-round effects, many developed markets are already starting to price in interest-rate hikes by central banks, while the rotation into technology stocks does not favor Brazil.

“Although there is still no clarity on how long the war will last, clients believe the damage has already been done,” the BofA strategists said. “The investors we met highlighted concern about higher global rates and their potential impact on currencies and flows to Latin America,” Beker and Soto said.

They also noted that there is additional pressure on central banks in the region and that, even if Brazil’s monetary easing continues, “the magnitude of the cuts is unlikely to provide meaningful relief to the corporate sector.”

In addition, quarterly earnings from technology and artificial-intelligence-related companies were exponential and historically exceptional, contributing to the reversal of the flows seen at the start of the year. That comes on top of the approaching elections and recent local political developments, which have increased investors’ perception of risk and brought a new wave of volatility to local markets.

Brazil rally comes under threat

Against the new global market backdrop, discussions are growing over whether the rally in Brazilian stocks still has enough strength to continue. According to Andre Suaid, head of Latin America equities at Marex, “the party seems to be going on pause.”

“The rally in technology and artificial-intelligence-related stocks continued to accelerate, further concentrating global capital flows in U.S. equities. Expectations of persistent inflationary pressures and higher-for-longer interest rates also weighed broadly on emerging markets, tightening financial conditions and limiting investors’ appetite for risk outside the U.S. The rally in Brazil’s stock market is, in fact, at risk,” he said.

Ricardo Maluf, head of the equity trading desk at Warren Investimentos, said an important part of the flow that went into Latin American stock markets this year had a more tactical component. It was supported by diversification away from the dollar, concerns over artificial-intelligence capex, election-related trades and a defensive move tied to the geopolitical backdrop, “not least because our market has a heavy weighting in banks and commodities and works relatively as a ‘safe haven’ in this environment.”

In Maluf’s view, the reversal of that movement comes as geopolitical conflicts lose some marginal intensity and investors refocus on global fundamentals, especially earnings expectations linked to technology companies, which have returned to their radar. “That ends up attracting flows back to the U.S. and Asia,” he said.

External factors

According to J.P. Morgan’s equities team, led by Emy Shayo Cherman, Brazil’s recent political events do not offer an entry opportunity, even though EWZ, the main Brazilian equity exchange-traded fund on Wall Street, is down 4% since the start of the war after having risen 8% even during the conflict.

“The main reasons behind the decline in Brazilian markets are more external than internal. We believe investors would need the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lower oil prices and a decline in Treasury yields to start buying again. For foreign investors, downside risk is greater, considering that the real seems asymmetrical toward appreciation,” Emy Shayo Cherman and Cinthya Mizuguchi said.

J.P. Morgan’s team monitored episodes in recent years when outflows from Brazil exceeded R$10 billion in a 15-day rolling window. “We found 12 episodes of withdrawals of this magnitude or larger, two of which occurred at the start of the pandemic.

“The outflows during Covid were the longest-lasting and posted the largest withdrawal volumes. All other episodes were much shorter, with a duration similar to the current one. So, if history is any guide, the outflow may be nearing an end.”

The executives cautioned, however, that other episodes had not occurred immediately after capital inflows as large as this year’s. “Considering the extraordinary flow observed through April 15, the volume of withdrawals may also end up being larger than the historical pattern.”

* By Gabriel Roca, Bruna Furlani and Maria Fernanda Salinet, Valor — São Paulo

Source:Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Larger Brazil coffee crop fails to ease price uncertainty

Analysts say stronger production is still insufficient to relieve tight global supply and demand conditions

 

 

Brazil’s coffee crop is expected to grow this year, but not enough to ease tight global supply and demand conditions. That was the assessment of industry participants gathered Wednesday (20) at the International Coffee Seminar in Santos, São Paulo.

“We are living through a highly uncertain scenario in which it is impossible to map out any outlook. And this is happening amid climate change and a geopolitical crisis,” said Celso Vegro, a researcher at the Instituto de Economia Agrícola de São Paulo (IEA), on the sidelines of the event.

Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) is set to update its estimates for Brazil’s coffee production on Thursday. In its previous forecast, the agency projected a harvest of 66.1 million bags, up 17.1% from 2025.

Private consultancies are pointing to even higher production, potentially surpassing 70 million bags. Expectations of a robust crop are seen as a factor weighing on prices in international commodity exchanges.

On the New York exchange, the July arabica coffee contract closed down 0.68% on Wednesday at $2.6830 per pound. Over the past week, the contract fell 4.42%, according to Valor Data. Over one month, prices declined 6.74%.

In the view of Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, president of Cooxupé, “Brazil needs to produce 70 million bags, otherwise we will lose market share.” “We expect a good crop both in quality and quantity,” he added in an interview during the International Coffee Seminar.

Melo said current prices remain at good levels, although highly volatile. According to him, there is little coffee available in the market, leaving room for speculation.

Within the coffee industry, the watchword is caution, said Pavel Cardoso, president of ABIC, the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association. He said companies have passed part of the recent price declines on to retailers, but volatility is creating “tension” between buyers and sellers.

“If companies build long inventory positions and prices fall, margins are hurt. If they keep inventories short and prices rise, they are left uncovered. And there is also concern over El Niño. The 2026 crop is potentially the first opportunity to rebuild inventories,” he said.

Vinicius Estrela, from the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA), reinforced those concerns. “Coffee is a long-term crop, and we are having to make short-term decisions with higher costs and uncertainty over commercialization.”

Despite expectations of larger supply in Brazil, Eduardo Carvalhaes, from Escritório Carvalhaes, said he still sees little room, at least for now, for a significant drop in prices.

“In the minds of major buyers, coffee prices will keep falling because the crop will be large. Yet even after all this decline, prices are still at $2.70 [in New York]. [But] the balance between production and consumption is fragile and there are no inventories,” he said on the sidelines of the event.

For IEA’s Vegro, the arrival of the new crop on the market may put pressure on prices, but only in the short term. “Consumption has grown so much, while supply has been constrained, that larger supply now does not offset this imbalance. And logistics costs will eat into part of profitability,” the researcher added.

Last year, coffee exporters incurred an additional R$66.1 million in costs due to inefficiencies at ports, according to calculations by the Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil (Cecafé). For Eduardo Heron, technical director at Cecafé, concerns for this year are increasing.

“In the second half, with a large volume to ship and the same infrastructure, losses could be even greater,” Heron said. He added that the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are risk factors for the entire supply chain, as they create disruptions to foreign trade.

*By Raphael Salomão, Globo Rural — Santos

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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More than half of Brazil’s households near insolvency

NielsenIQ survey shows Northeast hardest hit by debt, pointing to risk of wider inequality

 

 

Nearly 75% of Brazilian households are uncomfortable with their financial situation, and just over half, or 54%, are close to becoming insolvent while still trying to pay all their bills.

Within this group of families worried about their own financial condition, one-fifth of households are already in debt or behind on bills. Of those, nearly 25% live in cities in the Northeast, an electoral stronghold of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

At the other end of the spectrum, one-quarter of households say they are financially comfortable. The largest share of these homes is in Southern Brazil, at 23%, and in Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo and the interior of Rio de Janeiro, at 20%, areas where purchasing power is higher than the national average.

Only one in every 100 Brazilian households says it is very comfortable with its bills.

The data were collected in 2025 by research firm NielsenIQ (NIQ) for its Homescan survey, obtained by Valor. The survey is one of the most traditional in the segment and gathers regular data from 8,200 households in Brazil. Globally, it covers 250,000 households in 25 countries, allowing NIQ to map families’ purchasing behavior.

“Regarding the regions, the highlight is the greater representation of the Northeast among the most affected households. This makes sense when we look at the region’s volume consumption performance, which has been contracting more than the national average over the past 15 months,” said Gabriel Fagundes, NIQ’s director of industry insights, based on the company’s surveys.

Fábio Bentes, chief economist at CNC, the national confederation of commerce and services, said the Northeast stands out because it includes lower-income areas, which are penalized in a context of worsening macroeconomic conditions, pressured by rising debt and delinquency since 2025 and, now, by the recent return of food inflation.

Average monthly income among workers in the North (R$2,238) and Northeast (R$2,015) is below the national average (R$2,851), according to preliminary data from the 2022 Census released in October by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

A Valor survey based on IBGE’s Monthly Retail Survey shows that, in the 12 months through March, five of the 10 states with the weakest sales growth by volume were in the North and Northeast: Piauí, Tocantins, Amazonas, Roraima and Pará.

“This oil shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East hits the lower-income population directly. Some of these consumers believe that if they don’t drive, they are protected from higher fuel prices, but they don’t know that 80% of the food they consume is transported by truck on highways,” Bentes said. Fuel prices are rising even after recent government subsidy measures.

Between March and May, S10 diesel posted the biggest increase, up 17.1%, followed by diesel (15.1%), regular gasoline (5.7%), premium gasoline (5.2%), compressed natural gas (5.1%) and cooking gas cylinders (4.3%), according to data from ANP, Brazil’s oil, natural gas and biofuels regulator.

Regional gaps widen

A closer look at the figures shows that an important divide is emerging between geographic regions, which tends to raise social inequality levels. There is also a widening gap in rates within individual states.

In São Paulo state, for example, considering all households in poor financial condition, the share of indebted households in the interior is almost double, at about 18%, the level seen in Greater São Paulo, at 9.3%, a significant gap within the same geographic area.

In the Northeast, however, the gap is of a different kind: of the 20.5% of households with financial problems in Brazil identified by NIQ in 2025, 24.3% are in the region. At the same time, among households in a comfortable situation, 14.3% are in the Northeastern states.

That means a substantial difference of 10 percentage points between the shares, the largest gap among regions in the survey.

Marcelo Pimentel, a former executive at Walmart, drugstore chain Drogaria São Paulo and food retailer GPA, said Brazil is experiencing consumption polarization. “Brazil has been a country that grows at different speeds even within the same geographic regions and, in this scenario, the country does not become poorer in a homogeneous way, but in a fragmented way, with the super-rich still having a lot of money because of these high interest rates, while the lower middle class is being heavily penalized,” he said.

In the case of Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo and the interior of Rio de Janeiro, which form a single geographic area in the study, there is also a relevant difference between the indicators, but in the opposite direction from the Northeast.

These three areas account for less than 14% of the overall group of highly leveraged or financially struggling households. Their share among households with a comfortable economic life, however, is just over 20%.

Minas Gerais, which is part of this more positive data set, is Brazil’s second-largest voting bloc. Rio de Janeiro, another highlight in this group, is the third-largest.

São Paulo city and Greater São Paulo also have a larger share of people in a comfortable financial situation, at 10.6% of the total, than indebted households, at 9.3%.

Inflation as top concern

The NIQ material also shows that inflation has returned as consumers’ biggest concern, ahead of crime and security. In third place was having “enough money to pay bills and live well.” Broadly speaking, surveys on the issues with the biggest impact on the presidential election have placed these topics in the overall ranking, with their positions varying.

An April Genial/Quaest poll put violence as Brazil’s main problem, with corruption in second place, cited by 19% of respondents, followed by social problems, at 16%, and health, at 14%. Inflation had not yet been mentioned.

Leandro Consentino, a political scientist and professor at Insper, said corruption should gain ground in electoral surveys because of new findings in the Master case involving senator and presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro. The economic agenda should also remain prominent because of the deterioration in the macro environment. “Even with the government’s action through [debt renegotiation program] Desenrola 2.0 and fuel subsidies, the war hit people’s living conditions, and the one who suffers is whoever holds the pen, whether at the federal or state government level,” he said.

A few weeks ago, Belmiro Gomes, chief executive of Assaí, Brazil’s second-largest cash-and-carry chain, with R$85 billion in annual sales, told analysts on a conference call that “a price change is already visible in some product categories.”

Until April, inflationary pressure was being felt in a more controlled way. “These are products that are more affected because of the conflict that is unfolding. We should see stronger impacts now, in May and June, since in April most operators in the sector still had older inventories,” the executive said.

“Unfortunately, when there is cost pressure, we have to pass on the costs we had.” According to Gomes, given the level of household debt and the current interest rate of 14.5%, inflation will put even more pressure on low-income consumers.

Similarly, Tulio de Queiroz, chief financial officer at Mateus, a retail and cash-and-carry chain with R$40 billion in annual revenue, said the market has “little price elasticity,” meaning it is not accepting price adjustments, which makes management more difficult for retailers.

“At a time when it is difficult to bring in volumes, it is essential to work on expenses precisely because of the pressure from operational deleveraging [when expenses may grow more than revenue],” Queiroz told an analyst last week. “Thinking that because I lower prices I will sell more, often you don’t sell more and you make your top line [revenue] worse. So this is a very, very difficult trade-off,” he said.

Pimentel, the former CEO of GPA, owner of the Pão de Açúcar supermarket chain, said this environment creates a negative outlook for companies, which end up postponing investments to protect cash for long periods because of high interest rates, something that tends to affect future planning.

Lower-income consumers under pressure

According to NIQ’s study, lower-income consumers, earning up to two minimum wages, spend more than 60% of their income on food and hygiene items. In the middle-income bracket, household expenses are under growing pressure: home bills now absorb more than 50% of spending among families earning between three and five minimum wages.

Secondary spending, including leisure, eating out, internet and phone services, and clothing, fell by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage point as a share of household budgets in 2025 compared with 2024. Other debt, health expenses and household bills rose by the same range, between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage point.

At the start of the month, with an eye on the worsening situation among the lower-income population, the government launched the second edition of Desenrola Brasil, a debt renegotiation program offering discounts of up to 90%. But progress was still modest one week after it began.

Investment bank BTG Pactual released a 12-page study on the 11th to assess the potential impact of the new program on consumption and household deleveraging. R$1 billion was renegotiated in seven days, with 200,000 settlement requests for an amount eligible for the program estimated at R$62 billion to R$77 billion, based on calculations by BTG Pactual and investment platform XP. Credit bureau Serasa data from March show 82 million indebted people.

BTG Pactual analysts Tiago Berriel and Bruno Martins said an issue dates back three years, to “Desenrola 1”, which reduced leverage among the groups that benefited but did not generate a new round of credit at lower interest rates for these groups, putting more pressure on these families.

“The improvement in balance sheets appears to have been captured more by banks and/or redirected to lower-risk groups, while the direct beneficiaries started carrying the renegotiated installments,” the analysts said.

This helps explain why the program may not have generated a perceptible improvement in well-being in the short term, they said: clearing one’s name does not automatically mean increasing disposable income or effective access to cheaper credit, and the effects are now being seen in the interest rates charged.

*By Adriana Mattos — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Federal Police reject Master owner plea deal proposal

Investigators say Daniel Vorcaro failed to provide new evidence that would justify benefits such as release from jail

 

 

 

Brazil’s Federal Police rejected on Wednesday (20) the plea bargain proposal submitted by former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master. Valor learned that investigators believe the probes are already advanced and that he did not provide new evidence that would justify granting benefits, such as release from jail.

A police chief familiar with the negotiations said the decision shows the Federal Police is acting on technical grounds. “If there is content, under the terms of the law, we move forward; if there isn’t, we reject it,” he said.

The same person said the rejection also shows that the Federal Police “does not force anyone to cooperate, does not impose conditions that are not in the law, and does not suggest names to be ‘handed over.’”

Frustration with proposal

Investigators had already been signaling dissatisfaction since the so-called annexes were submitted to the Federal Police and the Prosecutor General’s Office, which is also reviewing the proposal.

One sign of that frustration came on Monday (18), when the former banker was transferred to a smaller cell at the Federal Police headquarters in Brasília. Vorcaro had left the Papuda Penitentiary Complex in mid-March, after it was agreed that he would begin talks aimed at reaching a plea deal.

On Monday, however, Vorcaro left a 12-square-meter room with air conditioning, a minibar, and a private bathroom, and was moved to one of the cells used for pretrial detainees, a smaller and simpler space than the one he had occupied before, which had been adapted to receive former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Vorcaro was placed in preventive detention during the third phase of Operation Compliance Zero, launched on March 4. He later changed his defense team and began negotiating a plea deal. Criminal lawyer José Luís Oliveira Lima was brought in to handle the talks. Contacted by Valor on Wednesday, he did not comment.

Since the start of the investigations, the Federal Police’s position was that a plea deal would be viable only if the former banker provided relevant information implicating people “higher up” who were also involved in the multibillion-real frauds.

Investigators concluded that this did not happen. Recently, for example, the Federal Police launched an operation targeting Senator Ciro Nogueira (Progressive Party, Piauí). He, however, was not mentioned in the annexes submitted by Vorcaro.

According to the investigation, the president of the Progressive Party received a kind of monthly allowance from the banker at the time to represent his interests in Congress, an allegation Nogueira denies.

In that context, the lawmaker allegedly introduced an amendment to a bill to raise the guarantee limit of the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC) to R$1 million per depositor, from R$250,000.

*By Isadora Peron — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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