U.S. supplied about 80% of Brazil’s diesel imports in September as disruptions in Russia and Middle East tighten global market
Felipe Perez: “Diesel prices in the U.S. keep rising and have begun to affect American farmers” — Photo: Leo Pinheiro/Valor
Brazil could face a sharp impact if the United States restricts diesel exports, energy-market experts say, as President Donald Trump weighs a measure to contain record domestic fuel prices ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Brazil relies on imports for roughly 30% of its diesel market, making it particularly exposed to any U.S. restrictions. About 80% of the diesel Brazil imported in September came from the United States, according to a source familiar with the fuel market. India is also an important supplier, though its share is smaller.
Bloomberg reports that U.S. agricultural state lawmakers are urging the White House to halt diesel exports amid the harvest season, driven by increased demand from diesel trucks. Additionally, states like Alaska have requested restrictions as winter nears, when heating fuel consumption rises.
The oil industry, however, could be hurt by restrictions on overseas sales.
“It is as if the two biggest forces within the Republican Party were in conflict. Agriculture and the oil industry are pulling in opposite directions,” said a source familiar with the discussions.
“If exports are banned and refineries have to sell at domestic prices, we need to see who would absorb the difference compared with what they could earn by selling overseas,” the source said.
It remains unclear whether any restriction, if adopted, would be temporary or whether the U.S. government could instead limit overseas sales through export quotas.
Global supplies already under strain
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions, discounted Russian diesel became a major source of Brazilian imports, competing with U.S. supplies for the top spot.
However, increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries led Moscow to halt diesel exports in July, exacerbating an already tight market due to supply issues in the Middle East. Additionally, China has focused on its internal needs and limited exports since the U.S.-Iran conflict started on Feb. 28.
Felipe Perez, a director at S&P Global, said that even without an official decision, a potential U.S. export suspension would disrupt global diesel flows because the U.S. is such a major supplier.
“Diesel prices in the United States continue to rise and are beginning to affect American farmers,” Perez said. “If exports are indeed suspended, refineries could reduce production because the domestic market cannot absorb all the volume and storing it is less profitable. That reduction in refinery output could also affect U.S. gasoline production.”
Perez said buyers that currently rely on U.S. diesel would have difficulty finding the same volumes elsewhere. In that case, consumers worldwide would compete for scarcer, more expensive supplies at a time when diesel refining margins have hovered near record levels in recent months.
“Diesel consumers have very little flexibility,” he said. “They cannot simply switch to another fuel. They will have to pay more.”
Reuters reported Tuesday that Trump said he supported banning U.S. diesel exports.
“I’ve already said we shouldn’t export diesel. We produce a lot of diesel. I’ve advocated that. I’ve advocated it with my team,” Trump told reporters before a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is examining whether a ban would be feasible and whether a full or partial restriction could work, Reuters reported. Trump also said he discussed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries with Zelensky.
Minutes focus on weaker activity and credit conditions as markets keep odds of another 25-basis-point reduction alive despite election uncertainty
Ariane Benedito — Photo: Rogerio Vieira/Valor
Despite few changes from its previous communication, the minutes of last week’s meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reinforced the market’s view that policymakers are closely watching the slowdown in economic activity and developments in credit.
The document also kept alive expectations that the benchmark Selic rate could be cut at least once more in November, although market pricing stops short of fully factoring in another reduction amid uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.
Compared with the August minutes, Copom made no significant changes to its discussion of how monetary policy should be conducted. Investors, however, saw meaningful shifts in its assessment of the economic outlook and balance of risks.
The Central Bank placed greater emphasis on slowing activity, a view reinforced by second-quarter gross domestic product data, which “confirmed the slowdown” and “revealed that the movement was more intense in economic activities and demand components that are more sensitive to the economic cycle.”
Credit conditions also returned to the minutes after being absent from the previous document. Copom said developments in bank lending have been “consistent with a slowdown in growth,” while longer-term credit categories have declined.
Short-term and emergency credit lines, which tend to be more expensive, “continued to grow, although at a slower pace at the margin,” the minutes said.
Although investors read the document as more dovish, given Copom’s assessment of the economy, interest-rate futures were volatile and ended the Tuesday (Sept. 22) session little changed. The January 2028 DI (Interbank Deposit) futures rate fell to 13.48% from a previous settlement of 13.53%.
In the options market, the implied probability of another 25-basis-point Selic cut in November remained at 67%.
Signs of restraint
PicPay has long expected the Selic rate to fall to 13.5%. The bank’s chief economist, Ariane Benedito, said the minutes reinforced the impression that the Central Bank is “very comfortable” with the rate cut already delivered and consolidated the view that the monetary easing process is “advanced and effective.”
Benedito said Copom also appeared more at ease with signs that the economy is losing momentum.
“In the more cyclical segments, it made clear that the latest indicators point to a slowdown and that GDP confirmed this trend. It also mentions longer-term credit and makes clear that it is already seeing the effects of tight monetary policy in the composition of longer-term lending,” she said.
“Despite that, there is no stronger signal,” Benedito said. She added that the Central Bank appears concerned about the risk premiums demanded by investors, particularly as anxiety builds ahead of the presidential election.
“We expect normal volatility. Of course, the market will move a lot and issues such as confidence and candidates’ proposals will come into play… But given external and liquidity conditions, as long as there is no major disruption in financial markets, investors tend over time to return their focus to the current data.”
Monte Bravo chief economist, Raí Chicoli, said the credit discussion added to the minutes did not point to an extreme scenario as the most likely outcome, but he is increasingly concerned about high household delinquency rates.
Chicoli said the Monetary Policy Report, due Thursday (Sept. 24), should provide more detail on households’ debt-service burden and overall indebtedness.
External risks
As a counterweight to a domestic backdrop that could support further Selic cuts, the minutes described the global environment as uncertain and highlighted risks stemming from higher oil prices and monetary policy in advanced economies.
Chicoli, however, does not see the external backdrop as the main driver of Copom’s next moves unless the war in the Middle East either ends or escalates significantly over the coming months.
He said economic activity and investors’ assessment of fiscal policy after the election are likely to shape the Selic’s near-term path. Chicoli does not rule out a faster pace of easing if the post-election environment becomes significantly more favorable, but for now expects two more 25-basis-point cuts this year.
Election uncertainty
Bank of America economists led by David Beker, head of Brazil economics and Latin America strategy, said the election adds uncertainty to the November meeting.
“By the next Copom meeting, Brazil’s new president will already have been elected. Regardless of the election outcome, we believe there is room for interest-rate cuts to continue. Still, if there is a significant currency depreciation after the election, the cutting cycle could be shallower than we currently expect,” the team said.
J.P. Morgan’s Brazil economists, led by Vinicius Moreira, said the minutes reinforced the Central Bank’s emphasis on a data-dependent approach. Based on the bank’s inflation and activity forecasts, they continue to expect the Selic to remain at 13.75% as their base case.
“Furthermore, consensus inflation expectations are further from the target than when the Central Bank began the calibration cycle and, according to the Central Bank’s own model, inflation does not converge to the target at least until the first quarter of 2028 in a scenario in which the Selic remains unchanged through the end of the year.”
However, the J.P. Morgan economists acknowledged downside risks to their interest-rate forecast.
“Recent activity data have generally come in below expectations, and the medium-term growth outlook has deteriorated, partly because of the high cost of debt service across much of the economy. In addition, although inflation remains persistently above target, it has been surprising to the downside.”
*By Gabriel Caldeira,Victor Rezende and Hamilton Ferrari— São Paulo and Brasília
Embraer and Taurus book hundreds of millions of reais in tariff refunds, while WEG could receive up to R$230m; Suzano seeks reimbursement through U.S. courts
Embraer booked R$358.6 million in tariff refunds in the second quarter — Photo: Divulgação
Tariff refunds boosted second-quarter results at companies with operations in the United States, but the next phase of the reimbursement process has been delayed by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and is now set to begin in early October. Billions of dollars are at stake.
In Brazil, traditional exporters to the U.S. have largely avoided commenting on the issue, but the sums involved are also significant, reaching hundreds of millions of reais.
Jet maker Embraer booked R$358.6 million in second-quarter results related to the recovery of import duties. Combined with the exemption of aircraft and parts from the latest round of U.S. tariffs, the refunds prompted the company to raise its expected profit margin for the year, XP said in a report to clients. Contacted by Valor, Embraer declined to comment.
Taurus recognized R$91.1 million in refunds during the period, nearly the full amount it had requested.
“From the outset, we believed there could be a Supreme Court victory over the tariff’s unconstitutionality,” said Salesio Nuhs, CEO of the firearms manufacturer. “So we began gathering the documentation so we would have it ready when the time came.”
The process was easier for Taurus because it exports to a U.S. subsidiary, which filed for the refund, Nuhs said. The United States is the company’s main market, accounting for more than 80% of its firearms sales.
Taurus products were not included in the exemptions from the tariff package and were subject to a 50% rate — consisting of the 10% “reciprocal” tariff imposed in April 2025 and an additional 40% surcharge introduced in August — until the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the tariffs in February. The court ruled on Feb. 20 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the president to impose the tariffs.
J.P. Morgan recently highlighted the potential upside from refunds for another Brazilian company, WEG. The bank estimates the company could receive between R$170 million and R$230 million, equivalent to as much as 9% of its projected third-quarter EBITDA.
The Santa Catarina-based electric motor manufacturer was initially subject to the 10% tariff and later to the additional 40% surcharge. Some products were subsequently exempted, while others remained subject to the maximum rate.
Billion-dollar refunds
In the U.S., tariff reimbursements have generated multibillion-dollar gains for some companies.
Walmart, one of the country’s largest importers, received $2.9 billion in refunds during the quarter, boosting the retailer’s earnings and gross margin. The giant retailer said the amount represented substantially all the refunds it had requested.
Apple did not disclose a figure, but analysts estimated its reimbursement at about $2.2 billion.
Valor obtained a filing submitted in February by pulp and paper producer Suzano and two subsidiaries, just days after the Supreme Court ruling. The companies asked the U.S. Court of International Trade to order CBP to “reliquidate” imports that had been subject to the tariffs and process the corresponding refunds.
Reliquidation process
Reliquidation involves reopening an import entry that has already been finalized, or liquidated, so the duties assessed on it can be recalculated.
The U.S. Court of International Trade ordered CBP to reliquidate imports subject to the tariffs, including entries whose liquidation had already become final. The government appealed that broader order, and the case remains pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.
The Donald Trump administration argues that CBP lacks the legal authority to reopen a finally liquidated entry on its own and must instead act under a court order, such as the one sought by Suzano.
A CBP representative told the Court of International Trade that the next phase of the refund process will cover imports whose reliquidation has been ordered by a court.
Originally expected to begin in August, the phase was postponed while CBP adapted its refund-processing system. The agency now plans to launch it on Oct. 6 for eligible importers covered by court-ordered reliquidation.
“There are some people in Washington who are apprehensive about the possibility that CBP may be changing its mind about this phase. I don’t think that’s true. I believe CBP is acting in good faith, and I say that because this entire process is being conducted through the courts [the Court of International Trade],” said Matthew McConkey, a partner at U.S. law firm Mayer Brown, which is associated with Brazil’s Tauil & Chequer.
Brazilian claims
Suzano’s filing does not specify an amount. Brazilian pulp exports were subject to the 10% tariff before the product was exempted in September.
Neither Suzano nor WEG has publicly said it filed for reimbursement with U.S. customs authorities. Contacted by Valor, both companies declined to comment.
William Roberto Crestani, a tax partner at law firm Pinheiro Neto Advogados, said that, without naming companies, he has heard of other Brazilian businesses that have already secured refunds and others that are still pursuing reimbursement. He cited the machinery, steel and pulp and paper industries.
In addition to CBP’s postponement of the next phase, Crestani said some refunds have been held up by practical issues such as missing bank information.
Although few companies have publicly discussed the matter, Brazilian machinery industry association Abimaq Chair José Velloso said he believes several of its members are exercising their right to seek reimbursement in the U.S.
Valor contacted companies in those industries, but none commented. The Brazil Steel Institute also declined to comment.
Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry said it did not have enough information to address the issue, while the Brazilian Association of Publicly Held Companies (Abrasca) said it does not compile data on individual overseas transactions by its members. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services did not respond.
Prospect of change in government fuels demand for Brazilian stocks and currency, while strategists warn fiscal risks remain under either candidate
Brazil’s real outperformed most major currencies as election uncertainty remained in focus — Photo: Daniel Dan/Unsplash
Renewed expectations of a change in government after Brazil’s October presidential election boosted risk appetite in local markets, helping some assets outperform emerging-market peers. The real was among the five strongest currencies tracked by Valor on Monday (21).
In fixed income, expectations of an opposition victory also drove a decline in risk premiums across most of the interest-rate curve, with the exception of the very short end. The local risk-on mood received further support from global markets, as oil prices fell for a fourth straight session and government bond yields declined broadly across developed economies.
The stronger appetite for risk also lifted the benchmark Ibovespa stock index back above 186,000 points. Gains were held back by declines in mining company Vale and oil giant Petrobras shares.
The move came alongside a surge in major U.S. stock indexes, led by the Nasdaq, which closed at a record 27,122.094 points, surpassing its previous closing high of 27,093.901 reached in June.
Fiscal caution
Although the latest polls continue to show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) statistically tied in a potential runoff, Deutsche Bank’s Latin America economics and strategy team sees reason for caution.
The bank’s analysts said either candidate would face difficulty delivering substantial fiscal adjustment early in the next administration because of a “highly fragmented political landscape.”
In a report, the team said only a “modest” political and fiscal risk premium is currently priced into fixed income.
“We see lower rates under most fiscal regimes, but remain cautious given a tight election and fiscal uncertainty.”
The strategists are therefore maintaining only a curve-steepening position, designed to benefit from a wider gap between January 2029 and January 2031 DI (Interbank Deposit) futures rates.
On Monday, the January 2029 rate fell to 13.71% from 13.83%, while the January 2031 rate dropped sharply to 13.91% from 14.03%.
Equity gains
The decline in futures rates helped bolster the Ibovespa, which closed 0.74% higher at 186,596 points. Gains were limited by a 1.12% drop in Vale and a 1.03% decline in Petrobras preferred shares.
Beyond supporting the broader market, expectations of a possible change in government have recently increased demand for somewhat riskier stocks, Bank of America said.
BofA analysts said in a report that local investors have become more constructive on Brazilian equities, while foreign investors remain reluctant to increase risk exposure.
Defensive positioning remains concentrated in names such as electrical equipment maker WEG and infrastructure operator Motiva, while a higher-beta basket led by car rental company Localiza, toll-road operator EcoRodovias and truck and machinery rental company Vamos has attracted more interest, mainly as a tactical adjustment to the macroeconomic outlook.
Real outlook
Some foreign banks are also taking a more cautious view of the real. Deutsche Bank has reduced its position in the currency and now holds a neutral view, warning that “risks remain two-sided and positioning looks stretched” ahead of the election.
“Near-term risks are rising as fiscal and political concerns related to the elections intensify and seasonality turns less favorable in the second half. All of this is happening against an external backdrop that is less supportive for emerging-market currencies,” economists and strategists Francisco Campos,Beatriz Nunes, Christian Rojas and Carlos Muñoz-Carcamo said in a report.
The Deutsche Bank team nevertheless said Brazil’s favorable external accounts and high carry continue to support the real.
The exchange rate per U.S. dollar closed 0.7% lower at R$5.10 in the local market on Monday.
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials during the day may have supported the U.S. currency, even as Treasury yields fell at the intermediate and long end of the curve. Short-term yields edged higher.
Late in the session, the two-year Treasury yield was at 4.75%, up from 4.75% in the previous session, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.97% from 4.99%.
*By Bruna Furlani,Maria Fernanda Salinet,Arthur Cagliari,Luana ReisandGabriel Caldeira— São Paulo
Meat giant will keep its BDRs trading locally, while JBS S.A. remains able to issue debt to professional investors
Wesley Batista Filho and Gilberto Tomazoni — Photo: Divulgação/JBS
Nearly 20 years after going public in Brazil and just over a year after moving its primary share listing to New York, JBS is changing how it issues securities in the Brazilian market.
Debt offerings will no longer be issued by JBS S.A. and will instead come from Netherlands-based JBS N.V.
The company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM) on Monday (Sept. 21) that shareholders approved keeping JBS S.A. registered solely under category B, which allows companies to issue securities such as debt but not publicly traded shares in Brazil.
Local issuance
JBS S.A. will still be able to issue securities such as debentures in Brazil, but those offerings will be restricted to professional investors rather than the broader investing public.
Brazilian Depositary Receipts, or BDRs, will continue to trade in the local market.
JBS N.V. currently has two classes of shares. Class A shares, equivalent to common stock, trade on the New York Stock Exchange and serve as the underlying shares for the company’s BDRs.
Class B shares are held exclusively by J&F, the holding company controlled by the Batista brothers. Each Class B share carries the voting power of 10 Class A shares.
J&F move
The change comes two days after J&F said it had applied to register as a publicly held company in Brazil under category B.
J&F also controls companies including Âmbar Energia, Eldorado and Flora. The registration would allow the group to issue debt securities in Brazil, something it does not currently do.
The move reflects J&F’s transformation from a holding company into an operating company, as Valor reported Monday.
Wesley Batista Filho is set to take over as CEO in January 2027, replacing Gilberto Tomazoni.
In Monday’s filing, JBS said that “completion of the registration cancellation is subject to the satisfactory conclusion of the CVM’s review of the request, which is expected to take place in accordance with the terms and deadlines established under CVM Resolution 80.”
*By Nayara Figueiredo and Camila Souza Ramos— São Paulo
International retail groups gain market share as Brazilian chains face weaker sales, higher debt, court-supervised restructurings
Alexandre Bompard, of Carrefour — Photo: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg
Large international retail groups are weathering the current retail slowdown better than their Brazilian counterparts, while domestic chains are growing more slowly and increasingly turning to court-supervised restructurings. This is likely to further widen the gap in market share, strengthening the position of foreign operators in the revenue generated by Brazil’s retail sector.
The conclusion is part of a Valor analysis comparing the performance of Brazilian and foreign companies operating in the same segments based on their results so far this year. The differences are emerging at a time when Brazil has increased protection for sales of low-value imported goods.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed into law on September 10 a measure that eliminates import duties on international purchases of up to $50, a tax that became known in Brazil as the “blusinha tax.” The measure is expected to reduce federal tax revenue by R$5 billion to R$6 billion in 2026, according to the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), a Senate-affiliated fiscal policy watchdog. Given that the previous tax rate was 20%, Valor estimates that at least R$25 billion worth of foreign goods priced at up to $50 will enter Brazil this year. That is equivalent to twice Renner’s net apparel revenue in 2025, making it the country’s largest fashion retailer.
Congressional approval of the measure was one of Lula’s priorities ahead of the October elections, and industry associations at the time described it as an electoral move.
An analysis of the major groups whose revenues can be compared shows that macroeconomic conditions and company-specific management decisions have hurt Brazilian retailers’ sales in recent years. These factors have weighed more heavily on their results than any significant positive factors benefiting foreign retail chains, widening the gap between the two groups.
Adding to the pressure, some Brazilian chains are heavily dependent on sales in the North and Northeast, regions hit harder by the broader slowdown in retail activity. Even after the federal government’s decision to increase cash-transfer program Bolsa Família payments by 15%, providing an additional boost to consumer spending in those regions, bank analysts on Friday (18) questioned whether the extra income would initially go toward reducing household debt and delinquencies.
At the same time, the data show that foreign groups are also feeling the effects of weaker household consumption as household debt rises. So far, however, they appear to have withstood the pressure better.
According to the analysis, France’s Carrefour has been outperforming Grupo Mateus, a Maranhão-based retailer with a strong presence in the North and Northeast and a similarly diversified store portfolio, in same-store sales. Both companies operate in cash-and-carry and food retail.
Same-store sales are used as a gauge of underlying performance because they strip out the effect of new store openings, which typically boost revenue.
From January through June, Carrefour’s sales in Brazil were virtually flat in local-currency terms, declining 0.1% from a year earlier, while Mateus’ sales fell 7.7%. A year earlier, the Brazilian chain had posted 5.7% growth.
Carrefour’s operating profit in Brazil rose 0.9% from January through June, while Mateus’s fell 22.3% to R$888.5 million. “In Brazil, still a complex market, our adaptation plans and cost-reduction initiatives allowed us to further improve profitability and resume sales growth in the second quarter,” Carrefour CEO Alexandre Bompard wrote in his message accompanying the earnings report.
Likewise, Chile-based food retailer Cencosud, despite difficulties stabilizing some of its regional chains, posted results that were less pressured than Mateus’s. The Brazilian company has deliberately prioritized profitability over market share, abandoning an aggressive commercial strategy adopted in recent years.
Cencosud, which owns chains including Giga Atacado, Prezunic, and Perini, has seen sales affected by store remodeling and closures. Even so, its same-store sales decline was smaller than Mateus’s.
From January through March, the foreign group’s sales fell 1.4%, and the decline widened to 8% in the second quarter. Those figures were still less severe than Mateus’s, whose sales fell 7.3% and 8%, respectively. Bank analysts had projected a smaller decline of 5% to 7% for Mateus from April through June.
Ana Paula Tozzi, CEO of AGR Consultores, says large international groups give their Brazilian operations access to data, systems and management expertise, as well as funding from abroad—advantages that can make a difference in more challenging periods. “These businesses are operating in a perfect environment, but they operate with a long-term plan and a culture focused on the long term, and that is essential in more turbulent times,” she said. “It’s reassuring to know there is somewhere to turn—the parent company—when things get difficult,” she said.
While Carrefour delisted its Brazilian subsidiary in 2025 and Cencosud has no shares publicly traded in Brazil, Mateus went public on B3, Brazil’s stock exchange, in 2020.
The Brazilian group said its sales have reflected “a consumer environment that remains under pressure, marked by high household debt and changes in the composition of consumers’ shopping baskets,” according to its earnings report for April through June.
The company also said it has remained focused on profitability and that the strategy has delivered results. Gross margin was 23.2% from January through June, up 0.1 percentage point.
For João Soares, a Citi analyst, Mateus has been hurt by its heavy exposure to the North and Northeast, where it is a leading food retailer and consumer spending has weakened more sharply than in other parts of Brazil. The chain has also continued to prioritize profitability over sales, a strategy that has weighed on revenue. One-third of the nine states where the company operates are growing below the national retail average, according to IBGE data through June: Piauí, Alagoas, and Pará.
The chain has also been affected by its decision to reduce sales over the counter at its cash-and-carry stores. Mateus discontinued that activity this year for strategic reasons, affecting comparisons with the same period a year earlier.
“Management believes most of this adjustment [prioritizing profitability over sales] has been completed,” Soares said in an August report. “But management’s comments reinforced the cautious view on same-store sales in the short term,” he wrote. Grupo Mateus did not comment beyond its statements in the earnings report.
In the comparison between the companies, Cencosud’s sales across all stores fell 18% in the first half. Mateus, however, posted 12.5% growth, mainly due to the consolidation of a new business acquired in 2025—Novo Atacarejo—, the opening of 25 stores over the past 12 months, and higher sales at its wholesale and electronics businesses.
In convenience-store retail, another segment of the food market, Oxxo is growing faster than direct competitor GPA. Oxxo is owned by Mexico’s Femsa, which took full ownership of its Brazilian operations this year after previously holding a 50% stake. GPA, meanwhile, is undergoing an out-of-court restructuring and owns the Mini Extra and Minuto Pão de Açúcar chains.
In February, Brazilian company Raízen, part of Cosan Group, exited the business amid rising leverage by selling its stake in Grupo Nós, the joint venture that operated Oxxo stores in Brazil. The business has continued to post above-market growth.
In the first quarter after the partnership was dissolved, Oxxo Brazil grew 6.9%, followed by 11.6% growth in the second quarter. GPA’s convenience business grew 0.3% from January through March and fell 2.3% from April through June.
With R$4.5 billion in debt, the retail group that owns Pão de Açúcar filed for an out-of-court restructuring in March, and the plan has yet to receive court approval.
In its second-quarter earnings report, GPA said the decline in sales reflected the effects of the out-of-court restructuring, which caused supply problems at stores and ultimately affected revenue. “This effect peaked in May and has since begun to improve gradually. Sales returned to growth in June, in line with the gradual recovery in inventory availability and the normalization of operations,” the company said in its report.
The chain also cited the execution of a “strategy to prioritize more profitable channels,” which led to the end in 2026 of the “Aliados” project, aimed at transforming neighborhood stores under the CompreBem banner. It also cited moderate demand and a consumer environment under pressure. Oxxo and GPA did not comment.
In practice, weaker consumer spending affects all retailers exposed to the broader economic environment, including foreign groups. But some chains may also be more vulnerable because management decisions have failed to deliver the expected results.
“Changing management and strategy every three to four years sends a bad signal to the team and the market. GPA has frequently changed its leadership recently. Meanwhile, some chains grew too fast and opened too many stores in a short period, as was the case with Mateus, so eventually you have to pay the price,” Tozzi said.
Analysts say foreign groups still have the option of raising financing through their parent companies abroad, where interest rates are lower. Carrefour, for example, operates through a local bank that turns to its headquarters for capital.
In the home-improvement retail market, the outlook points to a challenging environment for both Brazilian and foreign chains.
“Several local chains have closed stores recently across all three states where we operate [Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná]. We often joke that the business that has grown the most in the region is real estate for rent,” said Peter Furukawa, CEO of Rio Grande do Sul-based Quero-Quero, which has about 580 stores nationwide.
Furukawa said the closures have created opportunities for the retailer to expand in some cities. At the same time, the chain has taken steps to respond to the slowdown in demand.
Among those measures, the company expanded this year its offering of cash purchases and products aimed at higher-income consumers, seeking to offset the decline in credit available to lower-income customers. The chain operates its own financial-services arm, Verdecard.
“We made a slight move toward more sophisticated assortments. The measures we have been taking in this tougher environment began in the middle of last year, when we realized that the deterioration in the economic backdrop was not going to change, and we are starting to see the results,” the CEO said. Quero-Quero’s same-store sales fell 2.5% from January through March and rose 6.7% from April through June.
French retailer Leroy Merlin reported flat same-store sales in Brazil in the first half of this year compared with 2025, according to management, putting it ahead of the market average. The sector declined 0.8% through June, according to IBGE.
Ricardo Dinelli, CEO of Leroy Merlin Brazil, said the company had to make choices and scale back some investments in a tougher market environment, selecting which projects to move forward with and being more transparent with employees about the approach. The retailer is Brazil’s largest home-improvement chain, with annual sales estimated by the market at R$9 billion to R$10 billion.
“We have had to make some course corrections recently and look inward to see whether what we were offering was really enough,” he said. “For example, we had projects involving made-to-measure products, such as curtains, that we started in some stores, but we decided not to expand them to more stores because it wasn’t the right time and we have other priorities,” he said. “We are putting more emphasis on our services offering. We have more than 160 types of services, and that business is not flat—it is growing faster [than the chain as a whole],” he said.
According to Dinelli, 2025 was also a difficult year, with sales stable compared with 2024, but he expects demand to increase as El Niño arrives and temperatures rise in the coming months. “Hot weather has a positive impact on our sales,” he said. The chain has not opened any stores this year; its latest opening was in Bauru, São Paulo state, in 2025. It has 53 stores nationwide.
Study says agribusiness could supply the industry with ample feedstock
Biomethane production remains concentrated in developed countries. Emerging economies, however, also have opportunities because of their available feedstock, particularly agricultural and livestock waste, according to a study by Brazilian researchers supported by the Low Carbon Mobility Institute (MBCBrasil).
The study found that gas produced by biodigesting waste could provide emerging economies with a renewable transportation fuel that supports their climate goals, energy-diversification strategies, circular economies, and rural development.
The study, “From Waste to Wheels—Turning Organic Waste into Renewable Fuel for Transport,” was written by researchers Glaucia Mendes Souza of the University of São Paulo (USP), Clayton Barcelos Zabeu of the Mauá Institute of Technology (IMT), Heitor Cantarella of the Campinas Agronomic Institute, and Luiz A. Horta Nogueira of the Federal University of Itajubá. They compiled research to highlight the potential for biomethane adoption worldwide.
According to the document, today’s most mature biomethane markets are all in developed economies, including Sweden, Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Norway, and California. Other markets are expanding, including Brazil, the United States, China, India, Spain, Ireland, Austria, and Belgium. Biomethane is produced in approximately 40 countries and used as a fuel in about 30 markets.
The researchers said data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show that the largest untapped opportunities for biomethane production are precisely in regions with substantial agricultural production, livestock farming, and urban growth, including Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Global production potential for biogas and biomethane is 1 trillion cubic meters a year, equivalent to about one-quarter of worldwide gas demand.
The availability of feedstock for biomethane production “is linked to economic development and population growth. As emerging economies expand their agricultural production and urban populations, the volume of organic waste they generate also increases,” the study said.
The researchers listed the main feedstock types and the countries with the greatest potential to use them. Animal manure is abundant in Brazil, India, China, and Argentina. Brazil, India, Thailand, and Indonesia have large volumes of agricultural residues. In contrast, Latin America and Southeast Asia have abundant agro-industrial waste.
Among nonagricultural sources, China, India, and Indonesia have the potential to use municipal organic waste, while landfill gas and wastewater sludge offer significant potential in large urban centers in emerging economies.
The researchers emphasized that countries such as Brazil, India, and China “already have experience adapting biomethane technologies to conditions in developing countries and can provide valuable lessons for other emerging markets.”
To encourage the biomethane market, the study cited countries that have adopted individual policies or combinations of measures, including fuel-blending mandates, sector-specific renewable-energy targets, physical infrastructure development, and financial or tax incentives.
The researchers also cited a study by the IEA, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP), and the European Biogas Association. It found that many biomethane projects succeed by making their other products—such as biofertilizers—and environmental services—such as carbon credits—economically viable. Additional revenue streams for a biomethane project may include waste-management services, biofertilizer, renewable carbon dioxide, carbon credits, and guarantees-of-origin certificates. According to the study, these additional sources can account for between 20% and 60% of a biomethane project’s total revenue.
Justice Flávio Dino asks for more time after tense session, potentially pushing decision beyond October election
Supreme Court justices (from left): Flávio Dino, André Mendonça, Alexandre de Moraes, Dias Toffoli and Gilmar Mendes — Photo: Gustavo Moreno/STF
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) suspended its session Tuesday (Sept. 15) without reaching a decision on a Federal Police report containing messages sent by former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, to a mobile phone number attributed to Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Justice Flávio Dino asked for more time to review the case.
The session was consumed by arguments among the justices and a procedural motion filed by Gilmar Mendes seeking to have the case considered alongside Moraes’s request for an investigation into Justice André Mendonça for alleged abuse of authority. As a result, the court never reached the central question of whether Moraes should be investigated.
Dino has up to 90 days to return the case for consideration. If he uses the full period allowed under court rules, the proceedings would resume, at the earliest, in early December. Justices consulted by Valor said Dino is unlikely to seek to put the case back on the agenda before the October elections.
At the start of the session, Justice Kassio Nunes Marques recused himself, a move that could alter the balance when the court eventually considers the merits of the case — whether Moraes should be investigated.
Nunes Marques cited his position as president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), saying he had no doubt the proceedings could affect the electoral process. Justice Dias Toffoli again stepped aside, as he has in all Banco Master cases since business ties emerged involving a fund linked to Fabiano Zettel, Vorcaro’s brother-in-law.
Dino requested more time after an argument between Justices Mendes and Mendonça — one of several heated exchanges during the session. He said the atmosphere in the courtroom made it impossible for the justices to deliberate, noting that Brazil was only days away from a presidential election.
“We are speaking in terms that degrade the Court’s image. Your Honor has been watching this for hours. If Your Honor is going to keep watching, I will not. We are in no position to deliberate. The atmosphere is only going to get worse, and society is watching,” Dino told Chief Justice Edson Fachin.
Even after Dino requested more time, the justices continued casting votes on the procedural motion. The session ended with a 4-3 vote against considering the two cases together. Fachin, who is overseeing the Moraes case, was joined by Luiz Fux,Mendonça and Cármen Lúcia.Cristiano Zanin, Mendes and Moraes voted in favor of combining the proceedings.
Dino had earlier supported considering the cases together but withdrew his vote after requesting more time to review the matter.
Courtroom clashes
The session featured repeated accusations and direct confrontations, particularly between Mendonça and some of the court’s more outspoken members, including Moraes and Mendes.
The most heated exchange came after Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet, who is also mentioned in the Federal Police report over alleged ties to people connected with Banco Master, defended himself.
“It is astonishing that someone of Paulo Gonet’s stature is subjected to this kind of insinuation. This is what is reckless [on Mendonça’s part]. A man driven by a policing mentality, alongside his police chiefs. The shamelessness of this man is astonishing,” Mendes shouted.
“The shamelessness is yours, Your Honor. Respect me. Respect me. This is not a joke,” Mendonça shouted back.
“Go ahead and cry, go ahead and cry,” Mendes replied.
“I’m not crying. There’s no crying here. Show some respect,” Mendonça said.
In another clash between the two, Mendes accused Mendonça of taking a “political-electoral” approach to the Banco Master case.
“There is an unmistakable political-electoral bias in the way this matter was handled. An obvious political-electoral approach. You don’t do that. Decent people don’t do that,” Mendes said.
Mendonça fired back.
“Your Honor is being reckless, Justice Gilmar. Don’t point your finger at me. You are not speaking to just anyone. Respect this Court.”
At another tense moment, Mendonça said there was a “parallel Federal Police” responsible for allegedly monitoring Supreme Court justices.
“We now have a parallel Federal Police. A parallel Federal Police carrying out surveillance. Don’t think you’re safe either, Justice,” Mendonça said.
Moraes then said he himself had been investigated at Mendonça’s direction.
“Who is afraid of the Federal Police? Who called the Federal Police and demanded that a colleague be included in a cooperation agreement? And we will bring that here, Chief Justice. We will bring it here and call witnesses, whom I will name,” Moraes said.
Moraes described the Federal Police report mentioning him as a “fraudulent investigation” carried out by Mendonça.
“Everything that was done, this fraudulent investigation into me, began long ago. Justice André, in a meeting, said: ‘Include Justice Alexandre.’ Why? Because he is serving a political group that tried to stage a coup in this country,” Moraes shouted, as Mendonça repeatedly said: “That’s a lie.”
Mendonça was appointed to the Supreme Court by former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a prison sentence after being convicted over an attempted coup.
Mendonça argues that when he asked the Federal Police to identify the recipients of Vorcaro’s messages, he did not know Moraes’s name would emerge. He said he requested the report because the messages mentioned Gonet and Federal Police Director General Andrei Rodrigues.
Fachin’s handling
Fachin’s management of the case also drew criticism from fellow justices.
Moraes said there was nothing for the court to vote on because neither the Federal Police nor the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGR) had requested an investigation into him, which he argued would make the opening of a formal inquiry impossible.
“Is there any request to investigate me? No. What exactly are you going to vote on?” Moraes asked.
Dino, meanwhile, criticized Fachin for taking over the case himself, arguing that the move upset the balance among the Supreme Court’s members.
“This is a court of equals, and so we have to follow the rule. And the rule says that in no court in the country may a president remove a rapporteur,” Dino said.
Cármen Lúcia’s dismay
Cármen Lúcia remained silent for almost the entire session, speaking only when it was her turn to vote on Mendes’s procedural motion.
She said she was in a state of “deep consternation and sadness” over the situation facing the Supreme Court.
“I’m sad. Not only because of the issue that brings us here, but because this Supreme Court has caused civic unease among all Brazilian citizens. I even feel ashamed that, 20 days before the election, everyone’s attention is focused on Supreme Court matters,” she said.
Gonet’s response
In a separate development Tuesday, Gonet submitted a statement to the Federal Prosecution Service’s Superior Council calling “preposterous” claims that he should not remain involved in the Banco Master case.
He also named other authorities who attended a 2024 event in London where he acknowledged having encountered Vorcaro.
“The invited authorities took part in panels over the course of the event. There were also moments when attendees socialized. It was only then, and together with several other guests, that I was with Mr. Daniel Vorcaro. It was in that single context that I met him in person (the only time up to then and to this day). Again, at the time, there was nothing public about illegal activities by Banco Master or its executive. Nothing of the sort had come to my attention,” Gonet said.
The Federal Police report made public by Mendonça earlier this month shows Vorcaro seeking information, allegedly from Moraes, about the investigation into him that would lead to his first arrest, ordered in November last year.
The former banker was also seeking protection. In the messages, for example, he asked whether “Andrei” and “Paulo” could intervene on his behalf. Shortly before his arrest was ordered, he asked whether he should leave the country.
The Federal Police document also said Moraes edited a R$131 million legal-services agreement between Vorcaro and attorney Viviane Barci, the justice’s wife. Investigators said the metadata from the digital document identified a username linked to Moraes as the author of the last change made to the draft.
*By Giullia Colombo,Tiago Angelo,Mateus Coutinho,Gabriela GuidoandMariana Andrade— Brasília and São Paulo
Executives at Valor 1000 winners say fiscal adjustment, greater predictability are essential for investment and growth
Valor 1000 awards ceremony honored leading companies across 28 sectors, with Itaú named Company of the Year — Photo: Felipe Gabriel/Valor
Two recurring issues on the corporate agenda have taken on greater urgency. One is the consumption tax overhaul, which enters a new phase in 2027 and aims to implement a simpler, more efficient system—which has long been needed—by 2033. The other is the adjustment of public finances, another essential item on the agenda, which is in a different position: its implementation remains uncertain, despite being part of the election debate.
These two issues, which have always been crucial to the quality of Brazil’s business environment, rank among the main concerns of the country’s largest companies, according to the Valor 1000 ranking, whose winners were honored Tuesday (8) at an event at the Unique hotel in São Paulo.
Serasa Experian compiled the ranking in partnership with Valor and Época Negócios. FGV/SP’s Center for Financial Studies validated the survey criteria.
The resilience of Brazilian companies, which continued to grow revenue despite a challenging environment, was highlighted by Frederic Kachar, CEO of Editora Globo and Sistema Globo de Rádio. He stressed how difficult it is for short- and medium-term interest rates to decline in real terms as long as public debt remains high. For Kachar, the lack of a substantive debate over fiscal adjustment in the presidential campaigns is a source of frustration. “This issue can no longer be postponed. Fiscal adjustment is necessary,” he said.
“In Brazil, we are facing institutional crises and challenges that need to be addressed urgently,” said Maria Fernanda Delmas, editorial director of Valor and Editora Globo’s business and economics brands, in opening the event.
“The work of the companies we are honoring today is an integral part of people’s lives and of building a country. We know this is an ongoing process, with successes and mistakes, and that it is subject to our critical coverage as a way of contributing to a better society. It can also inspire many other businesses and professionals to follow a better path,” she said. “We seek to look at companies’ financial health, but also at the broader responsibility of each corporation—its commitments to the communities where it operates, consumers, employees, public authorities, suppliers and other partners, the environment, and investors.”
Executives at the winning companies assess the current environment from this broader perspective.
“Social policy and fiscal policy have to go hand in hand. The more disciplined you are fiscally, the more you can control inflation and create room for social programs,” said Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO of Itaú Unibanco, the 2026 Company of the Year and winner in the financial sector.
The executive said public finances should be at the top of every presidential candidate’s priorities. “Whoever wins the election needs to urgently propose a budget reform, make the budget more flexible, eliminate a large portion of fixed spending, and tackle this problem. We need to create room to cut spending and better prioritize investment,” he said. “This will require action by the executive and legislative branches and by society as a whole. That would create room for private credit, both domestic and foreign, so that we can start talking about productivity.”
The trajectory of public debt is a concern for industrial executives. Gustavo Werneck, CEO of Gerdau—the winner in the steel and metals sector in the Valor 1000 ranking—issued a strong warning. “The lack of fiscal adjustment puts pressure on interest rates and inflation. We are approaching a point of no return. Government officials and those seeking office can no longer simply talk about it. We cannot enter 2027 without a commitment to fiscal adjustment focused on reducing public spending,” he said. “Without adjustment, there is no public investment. Without economic growth, companies won’t invest. It is a fundamental issue for Gerdau’s investment decisions.”
Alberto Kuba, CEO of WEG, the top-ranked company in the machinery sector, shares that view. He noted that the company works with long-term plans but expressed concern about the current environment. “Without fiscal adjustment, perceptions of [high] country risk will persist.”
For Henrique Fernandez, CEO of Intelbras, the winner in the electronics sector, putting public finances on a sounder footing is imperative. “Without it, interest rates will remain high for longer, making credit more expensive, curbing consumption and delaying investment decisions,” he said. “High interest rates that persist for a long time mean more selective demand and longer decision-making cycles among customers,” the executive said.
Valter Pitol, managing director of Cooperativa Agroindustrial Consolata (Copacol), the top-ranked company in agribusiness, sees a challenging outlook despite the company’s strong results. “For 2027, we see a lot of fiscal uncertainty, a higher cost of capital, and a weaker real,” he said. According to Pitol, a deterioration in the fiscal outlook could lead Copacol to postpone planned investments.
The concern cuts across industries. Diogo Corona, CEO of Smart Fit—the winner in specialized services—said fiscal policy affects the entire economic backdrop, including interest rates, inflation, the exchange rate, and overall confidence. “A more predictable environment helps support investment and consumption decisions,” he said.
“We need interest rates to be less restrictive,” said Leonardo Mesquita, co-CEO of Cury Construtora, the winner in real estate development. “Once interest rates return to more normal levels, we will be able to make investments with a longer-term view.”
Executives say greater predictability would be especially welcome at a time when companies are undergoing significant adjustments because of the ongoing tax overhaul.
The introduction of the Contribution over Goods and Services (CBS) will require changes to billing, accounting, and procurement processes at Sabesp, the winner in the water, sanitation, and environmental services sector. “The main challenge will be managing the transition safely while maintaining operational continuity and the quality of tax information,” said CEO Carlos Piani.
Éder Odvar Lopes, CEO of Inpasa, the top-ranked company in bioenergy, sees the tax overhaul as a historic transition. He said the biggest hurdle could be the regulation of special regimes, including regional tax incentives. “For a company operating in several states and with extensive supplier networks, the main task is adapting systems, tax processes, contracts, and financial flows to the new model,” he said.
Marcelo Oberg, CEO of Sotreq, the top-ranked company in wholesale and foreign trade, said the biggest test is not adapting to new tax rates and levies but preserving working capital. “It is essential to have mechanisms ensuring that the stock of tax credits from the previous system, particularly ICMS [state value-added tax], can be recovered so companies can maintain healthy cash flow,” he said.
At RD Saúde, which owns the Droga Raia and Drogasil pharmacy chains and won in retail, the preferential tax treatment provided for certain medicines is viewed as a step forward. “The measure could help expand access to and adherence to treatment, particularly among patients with chronic conditions,” said CEO Renato Raduan. “We are well advanced on this agenda, with our systems and processes being prepared to ensure a safe and proper transition to the new model,” he said, describing the reform as structurally positive.
André De Angelo, CEO of Acciona Brasil, the leader in construction and engineering, highlighted the impact of the tax overhaul on long-term concession contracts. “These contracts will span different tax regimes over their terms,” he said. “That affects financial models and requires mechanisms to restore the economic and financial balance of contracts with the granting authorities.”
According to Carlo Bergamaschi, executive director of Valgroup, the winner in plastics and rubber, the transition is highly demanding, particularly for a company operating in several states with a complex value chain. Changes to the rules and implementation timelines for different stages of the overhaul add to the complexity. Even so, he is optimistic. He believes the new system could bring significant improvements, such as reducing tax evasion and informality—“which means a fairer competitive environment,” he said.
The 2026 edition of the ranking assessed 1,034 companies based on financial performance. In a second stage, the highest-ranked companies were evaluated using ESG criteria—environmental, social, and governance practices—to determine the leaders in 28 sectors of the economy.
In a year marked by numerous challenges—from high interest rates and rising debt at home to wars that have severely disrupted global supply chains and heightened geopolitical tensions—these companies managed to grow both revenue and profit.
The Valor 1000 awards are organized by Valor Econômico and Época Negócios, with gold sponsorship from Alelo, Caixa Seguridade, Huawei, and Deloitte; silver sponsorship from FGV Educação Executiva, Vibra, MBRF, Febraban, and XP; and bronze sponsorship from Intelbras, CNI Sistema Indústria, Sicredi, and Mineração Taboca. Azul is the event’s official airline, and GAC is its official vehicle partner, with support from FIESP and Eletromidia and partnerships with Serasa Experian and FGVcef/FGV-SP.
Partnership will be structured through the Canadian company’s new Brazilian subsidiary
Canadian mining company Aclara Resources announced Tuesday (8) that it has signed a contractual joint venture agreement with the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (Jogmec) to explore and develop deposits of heavy rare earth elements in ionic clays in Brazil. The partnership will be structured through a new Brazilian subsidiary of the Canadian company.
In a market filing, Aclara clarified that the Carina project, its flagship asset in the state of Goiás and scheduled to begin operations in 2028, will remain outside the joint venture and continue to be wholly owned by the company.
Jogmec is responsible for securing strategic natural resources for Japan and is the same organization that signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of Goiás in March to cooperate in the research, technology, and exploration of critical minerals and rare earths. That same month, the state signed another agreement of this kind with the U.S., a memorandum that was questioned by members of the federal government.
Under the agreement with Aclara, Jogmec will exclusively finance up to $3 million in exploration expenses during an initial three-year earn-in period. If certain conditions are met, the Japanese organization may elect to invest an additional $1.5 million, extending the investment period by another year.
Jogmec will also have the option to acquire a 30% stake in one of Aclara’s exploration projects in Brazil if it fulfills all of its financial commitments. Once the 30% partnership is established, all future development costs for the selected project will be shared proportionally by the two partners, according to Aclara’s statement.
If it exercises the option to acquire the 30% stake in the selected project, the Japanese organization will also secure the right to purchase an amount of production equivalent to its 30% stake, plus an additional 10% share of the project’s future output. The purchases will be made on normal commercial market terms to support the project’s long-term financing and development.
According to Aclara, Jogmec may also transfer its stake and associated purchase rights to one or more Japanese companies or consortia, subject to the terms and conditions of the joint venture.
“The agreement also creates a natural pathway for future offtake agreements with Japanese companies through Jogmec’s priority rights,” Aclara CEO Ramón Barúa said in a press release. “As new discoveries are made, they have the potential to strengthen the resource base supporting our company’s vertically integrated rare earth supply chain.”
Under agreement, Jogmec will finance up to $3m in exploration expenses during initial three-year period — Photo: Victor Moriyama/Bloomberg* By
Michael Esquer, Valor — São Paulo Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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