Appeals court keeps Brazil’s oil export tax on hold

Judge rejects federal appeal, leaving injunction in place for five oil companies until a full appellate panel rules on the case

 

 

A federal appellate judge in Brazil has rejected the federal government’s request and upheld a preliminary injunction suspending collection of the oil export tax for five oil companies operating in the country. The decision, issued late Thursday (9), came after the Lula administration appealed the ruling earlier that morning.

Carmen Silva Lima de Arruda, a judge at the 2nd Region Federal Regional Court (TRF-2), said the National Treasury Attorney-General’s Office, which filed the appeal on behalf of the federal government, “failed to demonstrate the risk of concrete, serious and current harm arising from the maintenance of the challenged decision, and there is no evident prejudice in waiting for the final judgment of this interlocutory appeal, when the panel will examine the merits in detail.”

That means the injunction will remain in effect for the oil companies until the merits of the case are reviewed by a TRF-2 panel. The injunction was granted on Tuesday by federal judge Humberto de Vasconcelos Sampaio of the 1st Federal Court in Rio de Janeiro in favor of Equinor, TotalEnergies, Petrogal, Shell and Repsol Sinopec.

Arruda also said the government’s argument that the injunction interferes with the economic policy adopted to soften the effects of the Middle East conflict “does not prove the immediate and irreversible harm that would, by itself, justify suspending the effects of the challenged decision.”

Appeal remains blocked

The federal government temporarily reinstated the export tax at a 12% rate on crude oil in an effort to offset subsidies granted to diesel producers and importers in Brazil. The purpose of the subsidy is to prevent diesel prices from rising domestically, after the Middle East conflict sent Brent crude prices sharply higher.

The government’s appeal challenged the injunction on both procedural and substantive grounds. “The federal government has already appealed, filing an interlocutory appeal with TRF-2, since the reasoning is based on an article of the MP [provisional presidential decree] that does not exist, and that nonexistent article was decisive to the judge’s conclusion,” the National Treasury Attorney-General’s Office said in a statement before Arruda’s decision.

The injunction cited Article 10 of the provisional decree that temporarily created the export tax, but included three paragraphs that do not exist. One of those inserted paragraphs says that the “revenue arising from the collection of the tax referred to in this article will be allocated to meet the federal government’s emergency fiscal needs, as provided for in regulation.”

That passage does not appear in the provisional decree issued by the government and published in the Official Gazette on March 12. Based on that wording, the federal judge granted the injunction, saying the export tax had a revenue-raising purpose, which would not be allowed because it is an extrafiscal tax.

The article cited contains no paragraphs and no reference to “meeting the federal government’s emergency fiscal needs.” It says only that “a 12% tax rate is hereby established on exports of crude petroleum oils or oils from bituminous minerals, classified under Mercosur Common Nomenclature code 2709, levied on the total value of exports.”

Government contests ruling’s basis

In its filing to the court, the National Treasury Attorney-General’s Office argued that the text of the provisional decree “does not provide, either expressly or implicitly, that revenue arising from the export tax will be allocated to meet the federal government’s emergency fiscal needs.”

“A reading of Article 10 of MP 1,340/2026 (the actual one), as well as subsequent Article 11, which also deals with the export tax levied on exports of crude petroleum oils or oils from bituminous minerals, reveals no earmarking of the revenue obtained for any specific purpose,” it added.

In the government’s view, that alone should have been enough to overturn the injunction, but the appellate judge did not accept the argument.

Beyond what it sees as a procedural flaw, the government also argues that the temporary tax is in fact extrafiscal rather than revenue-driven, because it was adopted as part of a broader package to contain the effects of the Middle East conflict. It says the measure is therefore a matter of economic policy and market regulation.

“MP 1,340/2026 did not create a tax with a purely revenue-raising purpose. On the contrary, it is part of a package of complementary and coordinated measures aimed at addressing a severe exogenous price shock in the international energy market, marked by high volatility and a sharp rise in oil prices,” the government said in the appeal, seen by Valor.

The government also argued that the oil companies that went to court are all, without exception, “large companies, and their ability to absorb the higher tax burden must therefore be presumed, especially in a scenario of well-known appreciation in the products they sell, reflected in a considerable increase in profitability.”

“It is neither fair nor reasonable that the plaintiffs’ interest in increasing their gains (yes, because that is what this is about) should prevail over society’s interest in keeping inflation under control and maintaining the full functioning of different sectors of productive activity,” the National Treasury Attorney-General’s Office argued in the appeal.

As Valor previously reported, Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Petroleum Institute, or IBP, said the provisional decree is weak and that the group is considering legal action.

Equinor, Shell and the IBP said they would not comment on the government’s appeal.

*By Jéssica Sant’Ana — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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War drives up Brazilian export shipping rates

Container freight from Brazil to Mediterranean-Middle East route jumps 67% in April from March levels as conflict tied to Iran disrupts capacity and raises costs

Brazil’s ocean export freight rates surged in April amid uncertainty over the future of the war involving Iran. Data from Solve Shipping show that prices for container exports from Brazil to the Mediterranean, a route that serves the Middle East, were up 67% in April from March levels.

Other export routes also posted sharp increases. Freight rates to the U.S. East Coast and Northern Europe were up 80% from March, while rates to the Gulf of Mexico jumped 89% in the period, according to the consultancy’s data.

The Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries, or Abiec, said freight for refrigerated containers on the Strait of Hormuz route has more than doubled since the war began, rising to $7,000 from $3,000. The Middle East accounts for 15% of the sector’s exports.

Even so, prices remain below the average levels seen in April last year, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on several countries on what became known as “Liberation Day,” triggering a global rush in trade before the measures took effect. On the Brazil-to-Mediterranean-Middle East route, current rates are about 17% below the level seen in the same period of 2025.

Freight rates are therefore not at a peak. Even so, the logistics sector is concerned about the impact if the conflict drags on.

Costs rise across routes

Leandro Barreto, a partner at Solve Shipping, said that even though prices are still below where they were a year ago, the current backdrop for exporters is very challenging.

“All routes are becoming more expensive because of a combination of factors. One is fuel, since oil prices have doubled. On top of that, 10% of the world’s container fleet is being affected by the Middle East route. That means 10% of loaded containers are ending up at intermediary ports. That reduces market capacity. These alternative routes are longer, so costs also rise.”

He added that ports serving as alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz are also facing congestion, including in Pakistan, Oman, Singapore and Saudi Arabia.

One route that has been used is to ship cargo to the port of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and then move it overland across the country to the Persian Gulf coast, an option that is not only more expensive but also slower.

In practice, especially for exporters to the Middle East, costs are far worse than they were a year ago, said Gabriel Carvalho, CEO of Scan Global Logistics in Latin America. He noted that beyond regular freight charges, shipping companies are also imposing extra war-risk fees. Those charges can reach as much as $3,000 per 40-foot container, or $4,000 for refrigerated containers.

Carvalho said the only factor softening the crisis is that freight rates were relatively low at the start of the year, so even after the recent increase they have not yet returned to peak levels. Still, he said the situation is worrying.

Impact on meat, commodity exporters

“The hardest-hit exporters are meat and commodity producers. These are perishable, refrigerated goods that cannot sit in storage for long. Large exporters have more shipping capacity because their cargo has higher added value, but those selling lower-value commodities, such as wood, have been suffering,” he said.

Barreto said the fact that freight rates are still below 2025 levels reflects the volatility global shipping has experienced since the pandemic. In April last year, he noted, the logistics sector was going through a particularly dramatic period.

In addition to the U.S. tariffs announced that month, the shipping market was still dealing more severely with the effects of the Red Sea shutdown, which began in late 2023 after attacks by Houthi rebel groups from Yemen. Over the past year, however, shipping companies expanded their vessel fleets, increasing capacity, offsetting part of the disruption and easing freight costs.

Beyond rising prices, Carvalho said there is concern that ships could start running short of fuel. There is also growing worry about a shortage of containers, a scenario specialists see as likely if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period.

On the import side, the impact in Brazil has so far been more limited. On the Asia route, the country’s main import corridor, freight rates rose 4.65% in April from March, and importers have not yet faced major problems. Even so, Barreto said risks remain.

“Many see a slowdown in the domestic economy, which would help explain why import freight rates have been more contained.

“Another explanation is that companies held back orders because of the threat of a truckers’ strike and the war, so they decided to burn through inventories. But inventories are being depleted and the war has not ended. That’s why we are expecting a freight-rate reaction in the second half of April,” he said.

*By Taís Hirata — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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JBS sees cattle prices falling in H2 after China quota filled

Weaker demand may create surplus of Brazilian beef

 

 

The expected filling of Brazil’s beef export quota to China by midyear, combined with a growing supply of feedlot cattle ready for slaughter, is likely to push cattle prices lower in the second half, JBS CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said on Tuesday.

A potential drop in demand for Brazilian beef after the annual Chinese quota of 1.1 million tonnes—exempt from an additional 55% tariff—is filled could generate excess supply that will need to be redirected to domestic and international markets, Tomazoni told journalists during the 12th Annual Brazil Investment Forum hosted by Bradesco BBI.

In addition to the roughly 600,000-tonne gap between China’s quota and Brazil’s export volume last year, Brazil will also lose tariff-free access for about 350,000 tonnes shipped at the end of 2025 but counted toward China’s 2026 quota because they arrived at Chinese ports this year.

Even rising demand from other Southeast Asian countries and the United States—where cattle supply remains tight—will not be enough to absorb the roughly 950,000 tonnes China is expected to stop importing from Brazil in 2026, Tomazoni said.

“That’s a significant volume. China used to account for close to 50% of Brazil’s beef exports,” he said. “Markets are growing, but not at the pace needed to offset what China may no longer buy. Brazil is seeking new markets, but the U.S. imports different products [than China].”

He added that, despite the ongoing downcycle in cattle supply, prices could still ease in the second half.

Despite China’s quota limits and the war in the Middle East, Tomazoni and other industry executives at the forum expressed optimism about global meat demand.

Even before the conflict, consumption had been rising, supported by higher incomes and increased protein intake, said Minerva Foods CEO Fernando Galletti de Queiroz. The war has further heightened concerns over food security, he added.

“In the short term, we are seeing countries increase their strategic reserves,” Galletti said.

Like Minerva and JBS, MBRF has seen higher logistics costs in the Middle East due to rerouted shipping and land transport, higher oil prices, and increased insurance premiums, said CEO Miguel Gularte. However, stronger demand across meat categories since the start of the conflict has allowed companies to pass on costs, he noted.

Galletti also pointed to opportunities to expand exports to markets still closed to Brazilian beef, such as Japan and South Korea, as well as to other Southeast Asian countries. Tomazoni highlighted potential gains in the European Union and Africa. In Brazil, the World Cup and elections are also expected to boost meat consumption, Gularte said.

Although cattle supply for slaughter in Brazil is expected to tighten due to the livestock cycle, the country benefits from ongoing productivity gains driven by genetic improvements and better nutrition.

“There is enormous room for growth. Brazil will set the tone in the global beef market,” Tomazoni said.

*By Clarice Couto — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Risk premiums rise as confidence in credit market weakens

Restructurings, corporate distress and Middle East war widen spreads, while managers say opportunities are starting to emerge, caution remains essential

 

 

 

The repricing of risk premiums, which began in February and intensified in March, reflects uncertainty and a loss of investor confidence amid a string of cases involving troubled companies and court-supervised and out-of-court restructurings, a trend worsened by the war in the Middle East, said Alexandre Muller, a partner at JGP Asset Management, and Jean-Pierre Cote Gil of Vinland Capital.

In the past, when corporate financing was far more concentrated in state-owned banks, market adjustments were not as swift. Now, with capital markets playing a much larger role in funding companies, “there is no longer any tolerance for a deviation from the path,” Muller said.

“Spreads widened sharply because uncertainty increased as a result of these events, which undermine confidence and hurt capital markets,” Muller said at an event hosted by Bradesco BBI.

According to him, the sense is that the country is taking “steps backward,” citing uncertainty over how the legal system functions and major fraud cases in the banking sector. “But looking at the historical pattern, confidence is restored and premiums normalize.”

Bankruptcy framework under scrutiny

For Cote Gil, Brazil’s current Bankruptcy Law encourages controlling shareholders, and “companies are losing their embarrassment” about turning to out-of-court restructuring. “The country needed a more creditor-friendly bankruptcy regime. Our average investor has limited appetite for risk,” he said.

He also criticized the fact that liabilities in Brazil’s private-credit industry are now extremely short-term, with many funds offering same-day or next-day redemptions, forcing managers to hold high cash balances to meet withdrawals. “The industry’s average term should be D+5 [meaning investors would receive their money five business days after requesting a withdrawal]. We have tried to build products with longer lockups, but I don’t think that will become relevant for the sector as a whole.”

Cote Gil said the expectation had been for a calm first half and more volatility in the second, but that view has now reversed. He sees the widening in spreads as a technical adjustment followed by an exaggerated reaction, “which fed on itself, and the Iran war made it worse.”

He added that he does not believe the adjustment is close to over, though he noted that a significant correction is already visible, especially in infrastructure debentures, which at one point traded well below Brazil’s inflation-linked Treasury bonds, known as NTN-Bs. He recommended caution.

“The market became complacent and just accepted it. We need to understand this move before increasing allocations.”

More opportunities with caution

Spreads on tax-exempt infrastructure debentures, which had reached 80 basis points below NTN-Bs in September, widened by 34 basis points in March. The median spread moved from 53 basis points below NTN-Bs to 19 basis points below. Corporate debentures without tax incentives, meanwhile, ended March at a median spread of 118 basis points above the CDI, Brazil’s interbank deposit rate.

Victor Tofolo, head of credit management at Bradesco Asset, said on the same panel that the repricing is affecting both tax-exempt infrastructure debentures and regular corporate debentures. “We are already starting to find more opportunities, including in high grade, but we will need to study these names carefully.”

He said the adjustment in infrastructure debt is bringing the risk-return ratio back to more appropriate levels and, above all, increasing dispersion. Previously, he said, spreads were clustered too closely together, which made it harder for managers to generate value.

Cote Gil said his cash position was high, between 25% and 30%, so he could seize opportunities. “But it is a challenge. At the same time an opportunity appears, redemptions come in because the change in prices hurts fund performance, and part of that cash has to be used to meet withdrawals.”

Muller of JGP said the firm’s Idex index, created to track private-credit rates and regarded as one of the market’s main benchmarks, will soon release a report that already captures the recent widening in spreads. He said the index has returned to the first quartile, signaling a recovery in fund returns, including performance above the CDI.

*By Liane Thedim — Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor international

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Brazil court suspends export tax for five foreign oil majors

Equinor, TotalEnergies, Petrogal, Shell, Repsol Sinopec win injunction as government prepares appeal

 

 

 

A federal court in Rio de Janeiro has granted a preliminary injunction to five oil companies, suspending the collection of a 12% tax on crude oil exports, which the government introduced in March through a provisional presidential decree. The tax was designed as a way for the federal government to offset measures adopted to contain the impact of rising oil prices in the domestic market following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The decision, issued by federal judge Humberto de Vasconcelos Sampaio of the 1st Federal Court of Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday (7), benefits multinational groups Equinor, TotalEnergies, Petrogal, Shell, and Repsol Sinopec. According to sources, the government plans to appeal.

In their filing, the companies argued that Provisional Presidential Decree No. 1,340/2026, which set the 12% rate, distorted the fiscal nature of the export tax, claiming it is being used as a “purely revenue-raising instrument.” The decision states that the plaintiffs alleged violations of the principles of legal certainty, equality, free competition, and ability to pay, as well as the need to comply with the principle of prior notice, given the tax’s clearly fiscal purpose.

The judge noted that the federal government argued there was no creation of a new tax, but merely a change in the rate. According to the ruling, the government maintained that the previous zero rate reflected an economic policy aimed at encouraging exports and that taxpayers have no acquired right to maintain a preferential rate. “However, this argument does not hold in light of the specific regulatory context of Decree No. 1,340/2026,” the judge wrote.

The ruling further states that the explanatory memorandum of the provisional measure indicates that the 12% rate has a primarily revenue-raising purpose, intended to finance government spending, without any connection to exchange rate policy, trade balance equilibrium, or external market regulation. “When an extrafiscal tax is used for revenue-raising purposes, it loses the constitutional justification for exempting it from limitations on the taxing power, and the guarantees outlined in Article 150 of the Constitution must be observed. The Federal Supreme Court has already ruled this way in relation to the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) and CIDE [a special tax used by the federal government to regulate specific sectors] when used as revenue instruments,” the judge wrote.

A government source said the injunction reproduces Article 10 of the provisional decree but includes three new paragraphs. One of these inserted paragraphs states that “revenue from the tax referred to in this article shall be allocated to meet the federal government’s emergency fiscal needs, as provided by regulation.” This language does not appear in the provisional presidential decree published in the Official Federal Gazette on March 12. Based on this passage, Judge Sampaio granted the injunction, stating that the export tax has a revenue-raising nature, which would not be allowed since it is classified as an extrafiscal tax.

“The wording of Article 10 of Provisional Presidential Decree No. 1,340/2026, by expressly providing that revenue from the Export Tax will be allocated to meet the federal government’s emergency fiscal needs, clearly reveals the revenue-raising purpose of the measure. By linking the tax to the financing of public expenditures, the rule eliminates any claim that it serves as an instrument of exchange rate policy or foreign trade regulation,” the judge wrote in the injunction.

Article 10 of the provisional measure contains no such paragraph or reference to “meeting the federal government’s emergency fiscal needs.” It merely states that “a 12% export tax rate is established on crude petroleum oils or bituminous minerals classified under code 2709 of the Mercosur Common Nomenclature (NCM), applied to the total value of exports.”

Government officials said it is clear that the judge, in granting the injunction, did not rely on the original text of the provisional presidential decree. “The decision was based on a provision that does not exist in the regulation,” the source said. The government also argues that the temporary tax, created to mitigate the effects of the war, has an extrafiscal—not revenue-raising—nature, serving as an economic policy and market regulation tool. These arguments will be presented in the appeal.

Equinor’s Brazil president, Veronica Coelho, said the provisional presidential decree has legal weaknesses and cannot serve a purely revenue-raising purpose. “This is the latest development for us. These uncertainties increasingly reinforce the perception of risk,” she said on Wednesday (8) after attending the Brazilian Energy Leaders Forum in Rio. She added that the company invests more than $1 billion annually in Brazil, totaling about $25 billion between 2009 and 2030, underscoring the need for regulatory and fiscal stability.

Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP), said the decree is fragile and that the organization is considering legal action against the export tax. Petrobras, which is part of the IBP, did not support the initiative and voted against filing a lawsuit, according to sources. At the same event, Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira said oil companies are “making a lot of money” from oil “speculation” in the current environment. “Why not contribute temporarily so we can lower diesel and gasoline prices?” he said.

*By Fábio Couto and Jéssica Sant’Ana — Rio de Janeiro and Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Plano de saúde deve custear cirurgia robótica para câncer, decide STJ

4ª turma reconheceu cobertura e determinou retorno do caso para análise de dano moral.

 

 

 

8de abril de 2026

A 4ª turma do STJ deu parcial provimento a recurso especial para reconhecer o dever de plano de saúde de custear procedimento indicado para tratamento de câncer, afastando negativa baseada na ausência de previsão no rol da ANS.

O caso envolve paciente que teve negada a realização de cirurgia com técnica robótica, indicada por médico habilitado, sob o argumento de não cobertura contratual.

 

(Imagem: Freepik)

STJ determinou que plano de saúde custeie cirurgia indicada para tratamento de câncer.(Imagem: Freepik)

No voto, o relator destacou que operadoras devem assegurar exames e procedimentos necessários ao tratamento de doenças cobertas, sendo irrelevante, em determinadas hipóteses, a natureza do rol da ANS.

Segundo o ministro, a orientação da Corte admite a chamada “taxatividade mitigada”, permitindo a cobertura de procedimentos não previstos expressamente, desde que atendidos critérios técnicos.

O relator entendeu que o tribunal de origem divergiu desse entendimento ao afastar a cobertura da técnica indicada, razão pela qual reconheceu o direito ao custeio do procedimento.

“Eu não sei porque negar [robótica], porque hoje a maioria já faz. E tem consequências muito diferentes. Na cirurgia aberta, além do risco de infecção maior, há também o risco de gerar impotência sexual do operador.”

Quanto ao pedido de indenização por danos morais, o colegiado determinou o retorno dos autos à instância de origem para análise, por demandar reexame de fatos e provas.

A decisão foi unânime.

Processo: REsp 2.235.175

Fonte: https://www.migalhas.com.br/quentes/453440/plano-de-saude-deve-custear-cirurgia-robotica-para-cancer-decide-stj

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Oil exports jump 70% as Brazil’s trade surplus widens

Higher crude shipments lift export revenue in March, while imports rise twice as fast and sales to U.S. and Argentina fall

 

 

 

Brazil posted a trade surplus in March as exports rose 10%, although imports climbed at twice that pace. The increase in export revenue was driven by oil, which accounted for 68.5% of the rise in total shipments compared with the same month in 2025.

Export volumes of the commodity increased, which analysts say partly reflects the impact of the war in the Middle East, as previously contracted shipments were brought forward.

Among Brazil’s main destinations, exports rose to China and the European Union. They fell, however, to Argentina and the United States, two traditional markets for Brazilian manufactured goods. In the U.S. case, the decline is also tied to the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

Brazil ended March 2026 with a trade surplus of $6.4 billion, with exports of $31.6 billion and imports of $25.2 billion, data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services showed. In the first quarter, the surplus reached $14.2 billion, with exports of $82.3 billion and imports of $68.2 billion, up 7.1% and 1.3%, respectively, from the same period in 2025.

Total Brazilian exports last month were $2.88 billion higher than in March 2025, a 10% increase. Oil shipments rose at a much faster pace, up 70.4%, driven mainly by a 75.9% increase in volume.

Average export prices fell 3.1%, even though international oil prices rose during the month after the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Oil export revenue totaled $4.77 billion in March, up from $2.8 billion in the same month of 2025, an increase of $1.97 billion.

With that performance, oil’s share of Brazil’s export revenue rose to 15.1% from 9.7% a year earlier. Even so, soybeans remained Brazil’s top export item in the month, totaling $5.92 billion, up 4.3% from March 2025 and accounting for 18.7% of total export revenue.

“The conflict in the Middle East left a direct mark on the March numbers, and that shows up on the export side,” said Ariane Benedito, chief economist at digital bank PicPay. “Brazil took advantage of a window of stronger demand from oil-importing countries seeking to diversify supply amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz, but the contracts that had already been signed still did not fully reflect the geopolitical risk premium.”

The net effect of oil on the month’s trade balance was positive by $1.85 billion, Benedito noted. Without that impact, she said, the March surplus would have been just $4.55 billion. “That shows how nonrecurring the March result was and how dependent it was on a specific external factor: the redirection of oil cargoes during a short-term window shaped by geopolitics.”

China demand

Government data show that China accounted for $1.6 billion of the $1.9 billion increase in Brazil’s crude oil exports in March. Shipments to China totaled $3.1 billion last month, or 64.6% of all Brazilian crude oil exports, a jump of 111.2%. The United States was the second-largest market, with a 6.8% share.

Looking at export destinations more broadly, André Valério, chief economist at Inter, pointed to higher overall shipment values to China and the European Union, up 17.8% and 7.3%, respectively.

Exports to the United States and Argentina, however, fell 9.1% and 5.9%, respectively, from March 2025. Even before the war, he noted, the expectation was that trade flows with the U.S. would not recover immediately, even after the rollback of the so-called “tariff hike,” which had imposed tariffs of as much as 50% on Brazilian products under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the U.S. economic emergency law.

“When a [trade] network is disrupted, it does not come back together so easily. This weakening was already expected,” he said.

José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association, said the data show how Brazil has become increasingly dependent on the Chinese market, which already takes most of the country’s soybean and iron ore exports.

In his view, despite the uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East, Brazilian oil exports are likely to become even more concentrated in China under the current geopolitical backdrop, given the volume that the Asian giant is able to absorb.

Lucas Barbosa, an economist at asset manager AZ Quest, noted that Brazil had already been posting strong growth in oil production over the past year. “There is a scenario in which the trade balance for oil and petroleum products could top $50 billion this year. And oil above $100 a barrel should support the trade balance and economic activity in the short term. Unfortunately, on the inflation side, because we import part of our fuel products, we are not fully insulated from the shock.”

Imports also accelerate

Exports, said Valério of Inter, should get a boost in 2026 from oil as a consequence of the war, and that effect should be greater for the overall trade balance than the impact on imports from higher fuel and fertilizer prices.

“We see upward bias for the trade surplus at the end of this year compared with our pre-war forecast,” he said. Inter’s 2026 trade surplus estimate, previously closer to $73 billion or $74 billion, now has an upward bias toward something closer to $80 billion.

On the import side, Herlon Brandão, director of foreign trade statistics and studies at the Foreign Trade Secretariat, said diesel import volumes fell 20% in March, but cautioned that it is still too early to directly link that movement to the conflict in the Middle East and that more data are needed.

“We are looking here at documentary records. These operations take time to clear customs, and fuel has that characteristic. So we may be looking at shipments that were cleared in March but may actually have arrived in earlier months.

“So, to say that the conflict is affecting flows, we need to wait a little longer.”

Imports in the petroleum fuel oils category, which includes diesel, reached $1.38 billion in March, up 20.5% in value. Prices rose 21.3% while volume fell 0.6% from the same month in 2025.

The data also show that imports of fertilizers totaled $1.31 billion, up 61% from a year earlier. Imported volume rose 31.1% and average prices increased 22.8%.

Barbosa of AZ Quest highlighted the broad increase in total imports in March, not only in value but also in volume, with gains of 20.1% and 18.9%, respectively. He said the figure differed from what had been seen through February, when foreign purchases still pointed to a plateau, suggesting a cooling in economic activity.

One figure that stood out was passenger car imports, which reached $1.13 billion in March, up 204% from the same month in 2025.

Barbosa noted, however, that the increase in import volumes was spread across several items, which “raises a warning flag.”

“We need more data to tell whether this is a reacceleration in activity or an isolated figure. We need to look at the other activity indicators,” he said.

*By Giordanna Neves and Marta Watanabe — Brasília and São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Brazil’s M&A has best quarter since 2021 as foreigners return

Big-ticket deals lift first-quarter value 30% as companies race to close transactions before the presidential election cycle adds uncertainty

 

 

Brazil’s mergers and acquisitions market regained momentum in the first quarter of 2026, helped by large deals and a push by companies to wrap up transactions before the election period intensifies.

A survey by Seneca Evercore covering January through March shows that deals totaled $15.9 billion, up 30% from the same period last year. It was the strongest first quarter since 2021.

The recovery, however, came with fewer transactions. There were 153 deals in the quarter, down from 198 a year earlier, a sign that activity has picked up again on the back of larger transactions.

Two deals accounted for a meaningful share of the total volume: the combination of Odontoprev, a Brazilian dental plans company, and Bradesco Saúde, Bradesco’s health insurance arm, estimated at $5.8 billion; and the $1.9 billion sale of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA), the Brazilian aluminum producer owned by Votorantim, to China’s Chinalco and Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto.

For Daniel Wainstein, a partner at Seneca Evercore, the trend points to a revival in M&A after two weaker years. “Many transactions that had been put on hold last year came back at the start of this year.”

He said companies and investors are trying to take advantage of a more predictable environment in the first half to complete deals before conditions potentially become more unstable in the second half because of the presidential election. In 2025, Brazil’s M&A market totaled $58.4 billion.

Political uncertainty remains one of the main obstacles to this type of transaction, he said. “What the market needs is less uncertainty. As polls define the landscape, it becomes easier to price assets because volatility declines,” he said. His expectation is that, once the election picture becomes clearer, negotiations will move more smoothly.

Foreign interest returns

At the same time, there are signs that foreign appetite is improving. Overseas investors, especially Americans, have started paying closer attention to Brazil again.

“With China off the current U.S. strategic map and India already saturated with investment, Brazil is the main ‘third way’ among large-scale emerging markets,” Wainstein said.

That interest has focused on sectors such as financial services, renewable energy and technology. In finance, changes are underway as independent platforms expand in wealth management, insurance and lending.

“There is a real revolution in the sector,” he said. In his view, that shift is creating room both for fresh investment and for mergers among smaller companies.

Longer-term funding

Credit conditions have also supported the trend. Brazilian companies have been extending their debt maturities, replacing short-term loans with longer-term funding raised in the capital markets.

For Wainstein, that lengthening of debt profiles allows companies to pursue investment plans with less pressure on cash generation, creating value for shareholders.

With more investors active in the market, companies with stronger capital structures have been taking advantage of the moment to consolidate fragmented industries.

“The opportunity to finance this through long-term instruments changes the game significantly,” he said.

By sector, technology led deal volume in the quarter with 18%, followed by consumer and retail at 15% and financial institutions at 14%. In addition to the large healthcare and mining deals, the report points to transactions in telecommunications involving IHS Towers and Desktop, and in energy involving Wilson Sons and Petrobras assets.

Wainstein expects the pace to continue in the second quarter. “The trend is for the recovery to continue compared with 2024 and 2025,” he said.

The prospect of lower long-term interest rates remains a tailwind, especially for companies that depend more on growth than on heavy investment in physical assets, such as technology and education businesses.

*By Vitória Nascimento and Mônica Scaramuzzo — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Rising rents push companies out of São Paulo’s Faria Lima

Lease renewals drive firms to cheaper districts as prime office costs surge

Office lease contracts signed during the pandemic are now coming up for renewal, triggering a wave of relocations as companies seek better cost-effective alternatives.

Vacancy rates in São Paulo, which reached 23% in prime office buildings in 2021, fell to 13.9% by the end of 2025 and are expected to continue declining, albeit gradually. As a result, asking rents in the most competitive areas have been rising.

On Faria Lima—São Paulo’s premier office corridor—average asking rents reached R$280.90 per square meter at the end of 2025, an increase of 49.6% compared with 2020 and 81% over 2022, according to real estate consultancy Binswanger Brazil.

“The strategy was to lease at attractive prices years ago, already anticipating renewals,” said Melissa Spinelli, director of transactions and real estate business at Binswanger. “Prices were appealing, so companies could secure space on Faria Lima at levels that are no longer feasible today.”

However, with contract renewals, staying in the same location has become unviable for many tenants. “We see this frequently—companies saying that if they cannot reach a certain price in renegotiation, they will leave,” she said.

For companies that need to maintain a presence in the area, one solution has been to split operations, keeping part of their footprint in Faria Lima while relocating other functions to districts with higher vacancy and lower costs. Unlike Faria Lima, which ended last year with just 6.8% vacancy, other areas still offer significant availability.

XP, for example, leased 17,000 square meters in Chácara Santo Antônio while returning 4,500 square meters in Faria Lima, although it has not exited the area entirely. Verisure gave back 1,600 square meters in the São Luiz building, in the Juscelino Kubitschek avenue region, another prime location, and leased 7,000 square meters in Parque da Cidade, a complex also located in Chácara Santo Antônio.

According to Spinelli, the return to in-person work has increased demand for office space, but not necessarily in the most expensive locations. “Companies that need to be in these areas stay, while the others move to lower-cost regions, often in newer and higher-quality buildings,” she said.

Districts such as Chácara Santo Antônio are emerging as expansion hubs for office supply in São Paulo, with new high-end buildings still seeking tenants. Vacancy in the area stood at 32% at the end of 2025, with average asking rents of R$62 per square meter.

Another trend identified by Binswanger is companies opting for smaller buildings shared with fewer or no other tenants, allowing for greater customization. Amazon, for instance, is set to leave the Juscelino Kubitschek avenue area for a standalone building in Pinheiros. Netflix, earlier this year, moved from Alphaville to a low-rise building on Rebouças Avenue.

As explained by Paulo Izuka, head of projects at Landsight, Binswanger Brazil’s market intelligence arm, such moves toward areas like Pinheiros, Marginal Oeste, and Jardins reflect companies seeking “prime” locations at more affordable prices than those around Faria Lima.

Casas Bahia also relocated last year, moving from the Eldorado Business Tower to a property on Marginal Pinheiros, near the Berrini district, where it also opened a concept store.

This type of movement has become more common as the market offers a wider range of office options at different price points, including in areas not traditionally seen as corporate hubs, such as Rebouças and Pinheiros. “There is a growing opportunity in other regions,” Izuka said.

Despite this shift, Faria Lima remains highly attractive and is still considered a near-mandatory address for companies in finance, technology, and legal services. However, Spinelli sees a cap for further rent increases in the area. “Prices are already very high—there is a limit. Companies cannot pay any price, with few exceptions,” she said, although she does not expect rents to decline.

*By Ana Luiza Tieghi, Valor — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Lula risks political clash with Congress over workweek reform

Plan to bypass constitutional amendment route risks friction with Lower House leadership

The government of President Lula has decided to send Congress a bill to abolish the so-called 6-on-1 workweek, where employees work six consecutive days followed by one day of rest. However, the move has caused division within the ruling coalition, with concerns that it could strain relations with the Speaker of the Lower House, Hugo Motta. Therefore, the government intends to consult Motta prior to officially submitting the proposal.

The draft being discussed would establish two days of weekly rest, a maximum 40-hour workweek, and no reduction in wages. The measure is one of the administration’s main labor initiatives in an election year, though business groups warn it could slow economic activity and cause job losses.

The decision to pursue a bill was made last week, but the timing of its submission has not yet been determined.

Earlier this year, the government considered dropping the proposal after Motta signaled that Congress would proceed with the issue by appointing a rapporteur. However, nearly two months later, officials in the executive branch believe the matter has stalled, citing a lack of significant progress in the Constitution and Justice Committee.

Another concern is the format currently being discussed in Congress—a constitutional amendment. Under this plan, the president would lack veto power. Government officials worry that lawmakers might propose adjustments that broaden exceptions to the original proposal, leaving the executive with little ability to act.

Additionally, constitutional amendments need a three-fifths vote in both houses of Congress, in two rounds of voting—a high threshold that makes the process uncertain.

By contrast, an ordinary bill can be approved with a simple majority in a single vote. If submitted with constitutional urgency, it can also require Congress to act within 45 days by blocking the legislative agenda until it is addressed.

Although officials close to the presidency say the decision to send the bill has effectively been made, government negotiators in the Lower House remain cautious and have avoided confirming the move.

Their assessment is that submitting a bill could be viewed by Motta and party leaders as a provocation, given the speaker’s repeated defense of addressing the issue through a constitutional amendment instead of ordinary legislation.

In a recent meeting, Motta told government officials he planned to act swiftly and pledged to deliver the amendment approved by a special committee as early as May.

According to these officials, the government’s main concern was the pace of discussions and the risk that a slower process could cause the proposal to lose momentum. Motta’s signal of faster progress was therefore well received—reducing the incentive to submit a separate bill that could trigger political friction and complicate negotiations.

By Sofia Aguiar and Beatriz Roscoe — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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