Brazil’s major banks raise provisions, adopt cautious tone for 2026

Combined profit of Itaú, Bradesco, Santander and Banco do Brasil fell 4.4% to R$107.8bn, dragged down by BB’s agriculture losses

 

 

 

02/13/2026 

Brazil’s largest banks are entering 2026 with a more cautious stance after a slower 2025, marked by a modest credit expansion, higher loan-loss provisions, partly due to regulatory changes, and relatively stable default levels. With interest rates still high and presidential elections on the horizon, financial institutions see challenges ahead.

Itaú Unibanco, Bradesco, Santander, and state-controlled Banco do Brasil (BB) ended last year with a combined profit of R$107.8 billion, down 4.4% from 2024. However, the consolidated figure masks stark differences.

BB was the main drag on performance, with its profit plummeting 45.5% due to losses in agribusiness. If only private-sector banks are considered, the combined profit would have grown 16.4%.

Gross financial margin for the four institutions rose 6.4% to R$362.6 billion. But provisions for bad loans surged 22.7% to R$170.2 billion, driven by two main factors. There was a deterioration in asset quality, requiring banks to beef up their loss reserves.

In addition, a regulatory change played a role. Under Resolution 4,966, the Central Bank mandated a new accounting model based on expected credit losses, forcing banks to increase their cushions as they anticipate credit deterioration.

BB’s defaults

Last year, delinquency rates among the country’s largest banks remained mostly stable, except at BB. While the market average rose from 3% at the end of 2024 to 4.1% in late 2025, the large banks saw little change.

Itaú’s rate fell 0.1 percentage point, Bradesco’s rose 0.1 point, and Santander’s increased 0.5 point. BB stood out, with its delinquency rate jumping 2 points to 5.17%. The bank posted deterioration across all segments, but was hit especially hard by agribusiness losses and a specific corporate case.

The four publicly listed banks also slowed credit growth. Their combined loan portfolio reached R$4.58 trillion in 2025, a 5.8% increase, well below the national financial system’s average growth of 10.2%.

For 2026, a similar scenario is expected, with major banks maintaining a more conservative approach than the broader market. This trend is reflected both in their forecasts and in statements from executives.

Election-year caution

The Central Bank projects 8.6% credit growth in 2026. Itaú’s guidance ranges from 5.5% to 9.5% (7.5% at the midpoint); Bradesco expects between 8.5% and 10.5% (9.5% midpoint); BB forecasts just 0.5% to 4.5% (2.5% midpoint). Santander does not provide public guidance but has adopted a more cautious tone than its peers.

Itaú expects higher profit and sustained strong return on equity in 2026. Asked whether the bank’s guidance was too conservative, CEO Milton Maluhy Filho said it was not defensive, but rather “realistic,” especially in an election year, which tends to bring heightened uncertainty. “It wouldn’t make sense to aggressively expand credit and later have to pull back. But if we see opportunities and can deliver more, we will,” he said.

Santander CEO Mario Leão said the key is to grow in the segments the bank has prioritized, even if it means losing share in others. “I chose to grow in high-income clients and small and midsize companies. In those two segments, I need to grow disproportionately,” he noted.

Santander’s CFO, Gustavo Alejo, said the bank expects more pressure on provisions in portfolios like agribusiness and small businesses. These sectors are more sensitive to the base interest rate, which is expected to remain high even as the rate-cutting cycle begins.

“Given that we’re still in a high-Selic [base rate] environment, it’s only natural to see pressure,” Alejo said. “Obviously we’re working to reduce that pressure, and we’re preparing for it.”

Bradesco sees traction; BB to focus on retail

Recovering and executing its strategic plan, Bradesco appears more “geared up,” as CEO Marcelo Noronha put it. “We’re seeing commercial traction, important credit growth, and potential for market share gains in specific segments.”

MNoronha is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook. With inflation under control, he said, the Selic rate could fall to 12% by year-end. “That’s our horizon. I see Brazil moving forward, unemployment is under control, and we’re still optimistic, not pessimistic.”

At Banco do Brasil, the plan is to expand its retail portfolio, which has better risk-adjusted returns, while corporate and agribusiness lending is expected to remain flat. Overall credit growth at BB will be less than a third of the market average.

BB CEO Tarciana Medeiros said Thursday (12) that 2025 was the most challenging year in her 26-year career at the bank, largely due to agribusiness losses stemming from Resolution 4,966 and a wave of bankruptcy filings.

Still, she noted that even with nearly R$80 billion in provisions, BB posted a profit of R$20.7 billion and delivered on its guidance, which was revised twice during the year.

“[The year] 2026 will also be challenging,” Medeiros said. “But it will be a challenge we’ve already learned how to manage.”

*By Álvaro Campos and Lais Godinho — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Administrative reform back on agenda after perks get suspended

Suspension of salary add-ons by Supreme Court justice puts controversial issue back on radar in election yea

 

 

 

02/13/2026

Seen as off the table in this election year, the administrative reform bill reported by Federal Deputy Pedro Paulo (Social Democratic Party, PSD, Rio de Janeiro) gained political momentum after Justice Flávio Dino suspended the payment of salary add-ons across the three branches of government. The decision also set a 60-day deadline for drafting a general law, applicable to all branches and levels of government, to regulate indemnity payments.

Many of these indemnities, some not provided for by law, have been used to pay compensation above the constitutional cap of R$46,366.19. Administrative reform is considered an important measure to curb “supersalaries” and increase public sector efficiency.

The implicit message of the ruling is that if Congress does not decide on the issue, the Supreme Court will, Paulo told Valor. “Then it makes no sense to complain that the Supreme Court is encroaching on legislative powers,” he said. According to the congressman, the Legislature will be forced to address civil service pay twice this year: first, to comply with Dino’s injunction; then, to review possible vetoes by President Lula (Workers’ Party, PT) to bills approved this month granting raises to legislative staff and establishing a compensatory leave that allows employees to exceed the civil service pay cap.

Lula is considering vetoing the new perks, according to sources. Ten civil society organizations sent a joint letter urging the president to block the compensatory leave for the Legislature and similar benefits approved last December for the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU).

“My proposal largely contains what is in Justice Dino’s ruling,” Paulo said. “The definition of indemnity payments he calls for is basically the same as in my proposal.”

Politically, Dino’s decision “removed the biggest obstacle” in the administrative reform, the congressman said. Regulating payments above the salary cap had generated the strongest resistance in Congress. Now, that discussion has shifted to the Supreme Court.

With that, the remaining, less controversial aspects of the reform have a better chance of advancing, he said. The proposal reduces the number of civil service career tracks, sets a minimum of 20 pay progression levels, and establishes that entry-level pay in a career cannot exceed 50% of the top salary. For states and municipalities, it limits the growth of spending by the Legislative and Judicial branches and autonomous bodies (Public Prosecutor’s Office, Courts of Accounts and Public Defender’s Office). The mechanism would be inspired by the federal fiscal framework. The reform reported by Paulo includes 70 measures distributed across a proposed constitutional amendment (PEC), a complementary bill and an ordinary bill.

Carlos Ari Sundfeld, a professor at the São Paulo Law School of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and an expert on the subject, takes a different view. He argues that Dino’s decision addresses only one point of Pedro Paulo’s proposal—indemnities—and does not affect the rest of what he calls an “immense” package.

Regarding indemnities, the issue’s history in Congress makes him pessimistic. Bills already under consideration list which indemnities should be paid. They are criticized for effectively legitimizing many of them. In complying with Dino’s order and drafting a general law on indemnities, Congress could follow the same path. “The progress so far has not been positive,” he said. “We have not managed to produce a list that reduces indemnities, which may suggest this is not a very good approach.”

Sundfeld and Paulo agree it is important to see what the full bench of the Supreme Court decides regarding Dino’s ruling. A session is scheduled for February 25.

“They could, for example, adjust or extend the 60-day deadline,” the congressman said. The deadline applies not only to legislative regulation of indemnities but also to all bodies that pay them, which must disclose the type of payment and its recipients. The data have “nuclear war potential,” he said.

Sundfeld says it is difficult to predict what other justices will decide. They could, for example, rule that the Judiciary should be excluded from the new rules. The São Paulo Court of Justice has already filed an appeal in that direction, he noted.

“We will keep pushing,” Guilherme Cezar Coelho, founder of Republica.org, told Valor regarding administrative reform. The organization is one of the signatories of the letter to Lula requesting a veto of the new perks.

In partnership with the Movimento Pessoas à Frente, Republica.org released a study last November pointing to Brazil as a global champion of supersalaries. It shows that 0.6% of civil servants earn above the salary cap. The phenomenon is concentrated in the Judiciary, where 93% of judges and 91.5% of members of the Public Prosecutor’s Office exceeded the limit in 2023, at a cost of R$11.1 billion. By contrast, 70% of public servants earn up to R$5,000 per month.

“Legal careers concentrate supersalaries but deliver poor public services,” Coelho said. He cited a survey by think tank Instituto Sou da Paz, released last October, showing that only 36% of homicides in the country result in charges filed by prosecutors. “Two-thirds of homicides, of murders, lead nowhere,” he stressed. In Rio de Janeiro, the situation is even worse, he added. Of the 20 highest salaries paid in the country, 15 are in the building of that state’s Public Prosecutor’s Office. There, only 23% of homicides are brought before the courts.

The figures reflect an inefficient Judiciary system, he argued. Brazil scores 40 points on the World Bank’s Regulatory Quality Index, compared with 100 for Australia and Singapore, 77 for Chile and 91 for the United States. On another measure, Brazil scores 35 out of 100 on the Legal Certainty Index (Insejur).

“These two indicators, regulatory quality and legal certainty, are the responsibility of legal careers in Brazil,” he said. “Brazil is a bad place to do business because of these careers, which benefit from public service; supersalaries generate inefficiency.”

Higher wages can boost productivity when tied to measurable results or when they attract productive workers, explained Sergio Firpo, coordinator of the Insper Observatory of Public Spending Quality. “If you increase wages without either condition, if you raise pay for those already working, it is neither a recruitment effect nor linked to productivity gains,” he said. “It is just more money for those already receiving a salary.”

Civil service exams are highly competitive and bring productive individuals into public service, he noted. What is missing is linking pay to performance, as proposed by Paulo.

However, the proposal lacks support from the Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services. “The PEC is huge; they put a lot of things into the Constitution,” a government official told Valor. “It makes no sense to include controversial points.”

The government believes the chances of the proposal advancing are slim. Therefore, it intends to include in another bill, dealing with career restructuring, a provision establishing new criteria for career progression. This is one of the aspects of Pedro Paulo’s proposal that most interests the executive branch.

Administrative reform championed by Management Minister Esther Dweck is already under way and flying below the radar. Without proposing constitutional changes or new laws, the ministry has adopted more than 50 measures, such as lowering entry-level pay, extending career paths and implementing a more robust evaluation system that has already led to dismissals. “No constitutional amendment is needed; what is needed is action,” the minister often says.

“My criticism of the government is that it does not take a political decision on reform,” Paulo said. It seeks to avoid friction with civil service unions, part of its electoral base. “By not carrying out the reform, the government misses the opportunity to reach voters the president struggles to attract,” he said. “Imagine Lula being able to say he carried out two reforms in four years, tax and administrative.”

As previously reported by Valor, in the view of Arminio Fraga, founding partner of Gávea Investimentos and former Central Bank president, administrative reform would not have an immediate impact on public accounts. It could reduce spending by about 2 to 3 percentage points of GDP over five to ten years, provided it includes states and municipalities.

“If we look at recent years, personnel spending has been relatively controlled,” said Rafaela Vitoria, chief economist at Banco Inter. The expense stands at around 3% of GDP. “We were concerned when the Lula administration announced raises and new civil service exams.” However, spending remains at the same level. In her view, reducing this expenditure is not urgent. Instead, reform should focus on improving productivity and tightening rules on salary add-ons.

The spending item that most demands attention is social security. On this front, she notes that much of the civil service no longer retires with full pay, as in the past, but under general pension rules. Progress is still needed on pensions for military personnel and other categories left out of previous reforms.

“Administrative reform has a growing fiscal impact over time,” Paulo said. Gains would stem from disciplining supersalaries, defining spending limits by branch and constitutionalizing spending reviews. However, fiscal gains are not the proposal’s main focus, he stressed.

“When we set spending growth rules by branch, it will become a surplus for the executive, which will have more resources to invest in education and health instead of handing them over to grant raises to the judiciary, increase perks, or boost office budgets for lawmakers,” he said. “It is not necessarily an accounting surplus.”

The negative reaction to the approval of salary benefits for the Legislature “spooked politicians somewhat” and may change perceptions about administrative reform, the congressman said. “What they thought would be political wear and tear may become an asset,” he said. “Approving a measure that disciplines spending has popular appeal.”

(Edna Simão contributed reporting.)

*By Lu Aiko Otta — Brasília

Source: Valor International

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Justice exits Master case after link to owner emerges

Police cite Dias Toffoli in probe tied to Daniel Vorcaro, founder of failed bank; Supreme Court reassigns inquiry to Justice André Mendonça

 

 

 

 

02/13/2026 

After weeks of intense pressure, Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli stepped down on Thursday (12) from overseeing the criminal investigations involving Banco Master.

The decision came after a meeting of all 11 justices, called by Chief Justice Edson Fachin, who had opened a proceeding questioning Toffoli’s impartiality following the discovery of references to him in the phone of Daniel Vorcaro, the bank’s owner, by the Federal Police.

The matter had already been submitted to the Office of the Attorney General (PGR).

Toffoli’s departure was announced in a statement released after the meeting. The investigations into Banco Master and Vorcaro will now be handled by Justice André Mendonça, chosen through a random draw.

During the meeting, Fachin shared the findings of a report by Federal Police Director Andrei Rodrigues, which included references to Toffoli found in Vorcaro’s phone.

The meeting also addressed Toffoli’s defense. Earlier in the day, he acknowledged being a partner in Maridt, a company that sold part of its stake in the Tayayá resort to a fund connected to Fabiano Zettel, Vorcaro’s brother-in-law.

Under pressure

Valor learned that during the meeting Toffoli argued he should remain in charge of the investigation but decided to step aside after pressure from colleagues. The overall atmosphere was tense. The justice also defended himself over the issues raised in the Federal Police report. Afterward, fellow justices began presenting arguments against his continued oversight.

Once the justices supported replacing the rapporteur as a way to contain criticism of the Court, Toffoli agreed to relinquish control of the investigation. After hearing his colleagues, he no longer “dug in” to remain in charge of the proceedings.

“At the request of Justice Dias Toffoli, taking into account his prerogative to submit matters to the court’s president to ensure the proper handling of proceedings, and in view of the high institutional interests at stake, the Supreme Court presidency, after hearing all justices, accepts his communication to transfer the cases under his rapporteurship so they may be freely reassigned,” said the statement signed by all ten other justices, including Toffoli himself.

The justices unanimously agreed there were no grounds to proceed with the motion questioning Toffoli’s impartiality. The statement also said the court recognized “the full validity of the actions” taken by Toffoli in the case and expressed their “personal support” for him.

Before stepping away from the case, Toffoli took a measure investigators described as “doubling down”: on Thursday, he ordered the Federal Police to submit to the Supreme Court the full contents extracted from the phones and computers of those under investigation in the Banco Master probe, including Daniel Vorcaro.

The order called for the delivery of forensic reports on “the material in question, including telematic, digital, and telephone data.” It also included other “evidentiary elements” that had already been documented but not yet sent to the inquiry overseen by Toffoli.

The meeting was announced at the start of Thursday’s plenary session. The session ended early, and the meeting began around 4:30 p.m., paused at 7 p.m., and resumed at 8 p.m. The statement was released shortly after.

On Monday (9), Federal Police Director Andrei Rodrigues personally delivered to Fachin the report citing Toffoli. The material was based on data extracted from phones belonging to individuals under investigation in the Master case, including Vorcaro. According to a report by journalist Malu Gaspar in O Globo, the document includes phone calls between the two, an invitation to Toffoli’s birthday party, and conversations with others about payments related to the Tayayá resort.

The police did not formally request the justice’s recusal. As they are not a party to the case, they cannot do so. However, the information raised doubts about Toffoli’s continued role as rapporteur, given potential conflicts of interest and questions about impartiality.

Toffoli’s defense

Since the revelations surfaced, Toffoli issued two statements in his defense. The first, sent to reporters on Wednesday night (11), claimed the police report was based on “speculation.” In the second, issued Thursday morning, he admitted being a shareholder in Maridt, the family company that sold part of its stake in the Tayayá resort to a fund linked to Vorcaro’s brother-in-law, Fabiano Zettel. The justice denied receiving any money directly from Vorcaro or Zettel.

“Justice Dias Toffoli is part of Maridt’s shareholder structure. The company is managed by the justice’s relatives. Under the Organic Law of the Judiciary, Article 36 of Complementary Law 35/1979, a judge may be a shareholder in a company and receive dividends, but is prohibited from performing managerial duties,” said the second statement released by Toffoli’s office.

He also acknowledged that Maridt’s stake in Tayayá was sold to Zettel’s Arllen Fund on September 27, 2021. The remaining shares were sold to PHD Holding on February 21, 2025. Toffoli said in the statement he was not familiar with Arllen’s fund manager.

“The justice does not know the manager of the Arllen Fund and has never had any friendship, let alone a close friendship, with the defendant Daniel Vorcaro. Finally, the justice clarifies that he has never received any money from Daniel Vorcaro or his brother-in-law Fabiano Zettel,” the statement read.

Toffoli also said the entire transaction was “properly declared to the Federal Revenue Service” and that “all sales were made at market value.” As for the Master case, he said he only took over as rapporteur in November 2025. “By then, Maridt had long ceased to be part of the Tayayá Ribeirão Claro group,” he added.

Internal crisis

Justices said the recent revelations involving Toffoli had created a new kind of crisis within the Supreme Court.

Court members and close observers noted that the tribunal is accustomed to external pressure—such as criticism of rulings and accusations of interference in other branches—but Toffoli’s connection to the Tayayá resort and the mentions found on Vorcaro’s phone triggered an internal crisis, casting doubt on one justice’s impartiality.

Had Toffoli not stepped aside, one alternative under consideration was sending the case to a lower court. That’s because a formal ruling of bias could lead to the annulment of the justice’s decisions, delaying the conclusion of the investigation into the fraudulent credit scheme at Banco Master. The Supreme Court’s internal rules state that if bias is alleged or declared, all acts performed by the justice in question are rendered null.

In a private conversation with Valor, one justice said that while Toffoli enjoys the goodwill of his peers, “there are limits.” “He has the sympathy of the majority, but not for just anything,” the source said.

One source described the moment as “a unique situation,” saying they could not recall a similar episode involving the head of the Federal Police personally delivering evidence of a possible conflict of interest between a justice and a person under investigation.

The rise of pro-impeachment rhetoric has unsettled members of the Court. But one of them said it was too early to tell whether the situation had reached that level of severity.

Since taking over the Banco Master inquiries, Toffoli had insisted he would not step aside, even as scrutiny over his actions grew. Initially, he maintained that stance even after reports surfaced that his relatives had ties to the funds mentioned in the investigation.

*By Tiago Angelo and Giullia Colombo, Valor — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Investment banking revenue hits five-year low in Brazil

Higher rates and volatility dragged revenue down 12% in 2025, but banks expect a rebound with rate cuts and IPO pipeline in 2026

 

 

02/09/2026 

Amid market volatility and weak equity activity, investment banking revenue in Brazil dropped again in 2025, falling to its lowest level in at least five years, according to data compiled for Valor by global consultancy Dealogic. Still, expectations for 2026 are more upbeat, as interest rate cuts are expected to revive activity and reopen the equity offering window.

Total investment banking revenue reached $651 million in 2025, a 12% decline from the previous year and less than half the record $1.5 billion booked in 2021.

Dealogic’s data covers mergers and acquisitions, debt, equity, and syndicated loan activity. However, investment bankers caution that the consultancy—widely used in industry rankings—does not capture all transactions. Cross-border deal fees, for example, may be booked in bank subsidiaries outside Brazil.

M&A deals generated $248 million in revenue last year, while debt transactions accounted for $325 million. Equity deals brought in $71 million, and syndicated loans added $8 million.

2026 outlook

Looking ahead, bankers are more optimistic about 2026, helped by renewed foreign capital inflows. Business owners have shown more willingness to engage, and many companies are expected to raise capital for investment.

In contrast, 2025 was marked by more structured transactions, particularly in the equity space, as highly leveraged companies sought to rebalance their finances. These deals replaced more traditional follow-on offerings.

Examples include Cosan’s share offering and Azul’s debt-to-equity conversion. Equity revenue data also includes block trades, which reached record levels last year.

With the expected start of the rate-cutting cycle, sentiment has shifted. André Moor, head of investment banking at Bradesco BBI, described 2025 as a “lean” year for capital markets in Brazil, dominated by structured deals.

He expects a more active 2026, especially in the first quarter, with a rebound in equity offerings and even initial public offerings, which have been absent from the B3 exchange for four years.

“The mindset now is to take advantage of favorable stock market conditions and fuel up for the second half of the year,” he said.

Resilient bond market

Cristiano Guimarães, head of investment banking at Itaú BBA, said 2025 turned out better than expected, thanks to a still-strong fixed-income market following a record year in 2024. “Issuance levels in the local market remained quite high,” he said. For 2026, he believes that even with the volatility of an election year, lower interest rates will help stimulate markets.

“The positive angle is that the rate-cutting cycle will likely begin. By nature, that should foster overall market development, make investments easier, and restore some business confidence. That, of course, drives both debt and equity activity,” he said.

Even with improving conditions, election years typically bring volatility, which could prompt companies to rush deals into the first half of the year.

IPO pipeline

Among IPO-ready candidates are sanitation companies such as BRK and Aegea. Other deals are heading to the U.S., where PicPay has already completed its offering to strong demand in New York, a path that Agibank is also expected to follow.

Leonardo Cabral, head of investment banking at Santander Brasil, said 2026 has started on a more optimistic note, driven by the return of equity deals and the anticipation of lower interest rates.

“There’s strong demand for Brazilian assets from a range of geographies,” he said, noting that Santander will also benefit from fees booked in 2026 from deals closed at the end of 2025.

Anderson Brito, head of investment banking at UBS BB, noted that recent years were nowhere near the levels seen during the pandemic, when liquidity was abundant and rates were at rock bottom.

But in 2026, he sees improvements across all business lines and believes risk appetite will increase after the elections. “The election removes a major uncertainty and reopens the market,” he said.

Alessandro Farkuh, head of M&A at BTG Pactual, said Brazil benefited in the second half of 2025 from a reallocation of foreign capital. BTG is entering the new year with a “robust pipeline,” he said.

On the equity side, partner Fabio Nazari said companies are pursuing IPOs both domestically and abroad. “It’s all happening in the wake of rate cuts here and overseas,” he said. “The willingness to take on risk is much higher.”

At Bank of America, Bruno Saraiva, co-head of investment banking in Brazil, said the bank is taking a more constructive view, particularly on the outlook for equity offerings both in Brazil and the U.S., especially from technology companies.

His counterpart Hans Lin added that 2026 will be a shorter year in terms of deal activity because of the elections. As a result, equity placements are expected to continue primarily via block trades, which hit a record in 2025.

At Citi in Brazil, investment banking head Antonio Coutinho said the environment turned more positive in early 2026 thanks to foreign capital flows. “Infrastructure transactions will keep coming,” he said.

*By Fernanda Guimarães — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Q4 earnings mark a turning point for Brazilian companies

Analysts expect gradual profit recovery in 2026, helped by lower interest rates and operational resilience despite a sluggish economy

 

 

02/09/2026

The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season may mark a turning point for Brazilian companies. Despite clear signs of economic slowdown, analysts expect operational resilience, combined with an anticipated interest rate cut starting in March, to fuel a gradual recovery in earnings throughout 2026.

“The third quarter likely marked the bottom for earnings comparisons, and now we’re starting to see that bottom line accelerate,” said Daniel Gewehr, chief strategist at Itaú BBA. The bank estimates that, excluding the commodity sector, companies listed on the Ibovespa will post 5% annual growth in net income.

Still, macroeconomic conditions remain a drag. A proprietary activity indicator from Itaú BBA points to a 0.3% contraction in GDP during the fourth quarter, led by the services sector. “It’s still a challenging macro and interest rate environment, but companies are managing to deliver solid operating performance,” Gewehr noted.

XP Investimentos shares a similar view of a “slightly positive” quarter, driven more by efficiency gains than revenue expansion. For the firms under its coverage, XP projects modest 1.4% revenue growth in the fourth quarter but a robust 12.8% increase in operating profit.

“Companies have low leverage and strong cash generation, and many paid record dividends,” said Fernando Ferreira, XP’s chief strategist, noting that retail and consumer companies are more vulnerable to the economic slowdown and the still-high benchmark interest rate of 15%.

“If I had to sum it up, I’d say this will be a season of divergent results,” said Ricardo Peretti, equity strategist at Santander Brasil. “That’s a sign that companies are still operating efficiently. The results are coming less from revenue growth and more from cost reductions.”

Santander forecasts a 3% drop in aggregate net revenue and a 19% decline in total net income for companies under its coverage, driven by tough comparisons and volatility in the commodity sector. But domestic-oriented sectors paint a better picture, with the bank expecting a 12% rise in EBITDA and 4% growth in net profit.

Analysts expect a wide dispersion of results across sectors. There is broad consensus that low-income housing construction, utilities (energy and sanitation), and telecommunications will be among the top performers this earnings season.

On the downside, retail continues to suffer from high interest rates and the migration to e-commerce. Bank of America warned that the fourth quarter looks “challenging” for most retail names, with online competition, adverse weather, and aggressive pricing by e-commerce players weighing on physical stores.

Steelmakers are also likely to post weak results. Both XP and Santander flagged companies like Usiminas and CSN as underperformers due to seasonal weakness and lower domestic prices.

Mining, however—especially Vale—is expected to fare better thanks to iron ore prices holding above $100 per tonne and a rebound in copper.

Monetary easing

Beyond fourth-quarter results, markets will focus on guidance for 2026. The expected start of Brazil’s monetary easing cycle at the March meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) is a key trigger for the stock market.

“The ideal scenario would be a ‘not too hot, not too cold’ environment, allowing for rate cuts without hitting corporate results too hard,” said Julia Nogueira, vice president of equity research at Morgan Stanley.

“Companies will highlight positive tailwinds like tame inflation and rate cuts, but they’ll also acknowledge uncertainties tied to the elections in the second half,” said Peretti of Santander. “Many will likely frontload deals into the coming months. I believe telecom firms will strike a more cautious tone rather than express full-blown optimism.”

Looking ahead to 2026, Gewehr of Itaú BBA forecasts a 20% increase in profits, driven by lower interest rates, continued GDP resilience, and stable corporate balance sheets.

XP is even more bullish, projecting 23% profit growth next year, driven by a decline in financial expenses. “Operationally, it won’t be a very strong year, but earnings should rise sharply due to the impact of lower rates on financial results,” Ferreira said.

Despite the optimism, earnings-related stock volatility could remain high, just as in recent quarters. Analysts noted that the record foreign capital inflow of R$26.3 billion could amplify such swings.

“We saw an increase in quantitative foreign funds raising their exposure to Brazilian stocks,” Ferreira said. “They tend to focus less on company fundamentals and more on whether earnings beat or missed expectations, which adds to volatility.”

Gewehr said international investors are still upbeat, attracted by global diversification and cheap valuations in Brazil in dollar terms, while domestic investors remain cautious. “The farther away geographically, the more attractive the valuation looks,” he joked, adding that emerging market investors no longer see Brazilian equities as deeply discounted.

*By Felipe Laurence — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Audit court ruling on regulatory agencies raises fiscal challenges

Technocrats warn it could make it difficult to comply with spending cap, as spending watchdog orders government to justify budget freezes and blocks interference in operating funds

 

 

 

02/06/2026 

A decision by Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) on Wednesday (4) tightening budget management rules for regulatory agencies was seen by government technicians as a measure that strips the executive branch of tools needed to comply with the fiscal framework, even as the Court itself demands strict adherence to those rules, sources told Valor.

In the assessment of these sources, the Court calls for rigidity while simultaneously reducing fiscal management instruments. Technicians note that the TCU has repeatedly said the fiscal framework must be applied rigorously, that budget freezes should target the midpoint of the fiscal target, and that the government must commit to ambitious fiscal goals. There are also rulings stating that even when a law exempts certain expenditures from the target, this can undermine the intertemporal sustainability of public debt, they said.

According to interlocutors, by removing expenditures from the pool subject to contingency and requiring detailed explanations for why certain requests are excluded from the budget — even when the exclusion is intended to comply with the fiscal framework — the TCU makes compliance more difficult, as occurred in Wednesday’s decision. For these technicians, the fiscal rule itself should be sufficient justification for such decisions.

Members of the executive branch also argue that the TCU’s decision interferes in the drafting of the budget bill, encroaching on responsibilities traditionally assigned to the executive and legislative branches. Brazil’s budget already has a high degree of rigidity, and the measure moves toward further reducing the autonomy of these branches in defining the appropriations to be included each year in the Budget Law, they say.

In preparing the draft annual budget bill (PLOA), all sectoral bodies — including regulatory agencies — submit requests far exceeding what is feasible from a budgetary standpoint. In practice, the TCU’s decision ends up shielding agencies’ demands without proper merit analysis, sources said. As a result, expanding funding for these structures would tend to come at the expense of compressing other public policies, given the constraints imposed by fiscal rules.

As Valor reported, the TCU ruled that the federal government must justify any budget freezes affecting regulatory agencies and must not interfere with resources earmarked for operating expenses and oversight. The Court also set a 180-day deadline for the government to present a plan to establish the agencies’ financial autonomy.

For congressional technicians, the decision could create problems this year if there were an obligation to fully allocate the resources requested by the agencies. For now, however, it is sufficient to demonstrate that the amounts provided are adequate. Even so, it will be necessary to monitor how the measure affects the drafting of the 2027 budget, a source said.

Under the ruling, the Federal Budget Secretariat (SOF) and the Budget Execution Board (JEO) must, until the action plan is presented, demonstrate that the appropriations included in the annual budget bill are sufficient to cover agencies’ operating and oversight expenses whenever the amounts are below those requested by the bodies.

The determinations were issued as part of an operational audit aimed at assessing the adequacy of organizational structure, management, and results at the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel), the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), and the National Mining Agency (ANM).

Although the process focused on only four regulatory agencies, the determinations will apply to the budgets of the other seven agencies operating in Brazil. The Court also ordered the SOF and the JEO to justify any bimonthly freezes in agencies’ budgets and determined that funding for operating expenses and oversight be preserved.

*By Giordanna Neves, Valor — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Imports slump 9.8% in January as Brazil’s economy cools

Drop in intermediate goods and fuel imports tempers second-best January trade surplus on record

 

 

 

02/06/2026 

Brazil’s trade balance started 2026 with a $4.3 billion surplus, the second-best January result in the historical series, behind only the peak in 2024. However, both exports and, more sharply, imports fell compared to January 2025.

Government officials and analysts said the steep drop in imports reflects the expected economic slowdown, though the magnitude seen in January is unlikely to persist throughout the year.

Imports fell 9.8% in January, while exports declined 1%. As a result, even with the wider surplus (up from $2.3 billion in January 2025), overall trade volume shrank. Total trade reached $46 billion, down 5.1% from a year earlier, according to data released by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic).

Herlon Brandão, director of statistics and trade studies at Secex, noted that the volume of exports in January matched that of January 2025, a record year for shipments. On the import side, he said a slowdown is expected in 2026 due to “likely weaker growth in domestic demand and the broader economy.”

Brandão said import declines are likely to recur this year, though not necessarily to the extent seen in January.

José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), said the depth of the import drop was surprising, driven by a 15% fall in intermediate goods. This category accounts for roughly 60% of Brazil’s total imports. Fuel imports also fell 21.5%, and capital goods slowed, with a modest increase of 1.1%, according to Secex.

Economist Lucas Barbosa of AZ Quest said the data are consistent with a slowdown in domestic demand. “High interest rates have weighed on investment, and industrial output data has been weak, especially in more cyclical sectors,” he said.

According to Brazil’s national statistics agency IBGE, industrial production dropped 1.2% in December from November. From September to December 2025, output declined 1.9%.

A notable exception, Castro said, was consumer goods, whose import value rose 11.9% in January compared to the same month in 2025.

Chinese cars

Secex data show that this increase was largely due to Chinese car imports, which totaled $374.9 million in January, more than ten times the $31.7 million from January 2025. Excluding Chinese automobiles, Brazil’s consumer goods imports rose just 1.5%.

Passenger cars stood out among January imports, totaling $564 million, more than double the $274 million a year earlier. About 65% of those vehicles came from China.

Barbosa of AZ Quest said the trade balance remains resilient and expects another strong year for Brazilian foreign trade, projecting a $75 billion surplus in 2026, up from $68.3 billion in 2025.

“Brazilian exports continue to show strength not just in volume, but also in price,” he said. Beef exports remain strong, with revenue up 42.5% in January from a year earlier. Prices rose 10.8%, amplifying a 28.6% increase in volume.

Gold exports also stood out, reaching $820 million in January, up from $404 million a year earlier. It was Brazil’s ninth most exported product for the month, with prices up 75.8% and volume rising 15.4%.

Soy exports saw a significant increase of 91.7%, supported by a 9.2% gain in prices and a 75.5% surge in volume.

Not all commodities benefited from favorable prices. Oil and iron ore—the country’s top two export products—fell by 7.8% and 8.6%, respectively. Oil declined in price, while iron ore saw drops in both price and volume.

Trade with key partners reflected recent global shifts. Economist André Valério of Inter noted that January continued the trends seen since the implementation of higher U.S. tariffs, with a 25.5% drop in exports to the United States.

Even so, Brazil’s trade deficit with the U.S. was just $670 million in January, helped by a 10.9% fall in imports of American goods, a shift not seen in previous readings.

Exports to China jumped 17.4%, reflecting a gain in market share, especially in Brazilian agribusiness, which has taken advantage of a gap left by U.S. producers amid tensions between the two countries.

“Even after the U.S.–China agreement, in which China pledged to resume soybean purchases from the U.S., there has been no reduction in Chinese appetite for Brazilian soybeans. This suggests Brazil’s market share gains could prove long-lasting,” Valério said.

*By Mariana Andrade, Guilherme Pimenta and Marta Watanabe — Brasília and São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Cabo Verde Mineração finds new rare earths area in Minas Gerais

Company seeks international partners to fund processing complex

 

 

 

02/05/2026

Cabo Verde Mineração, a Brazilian company based in Belo Horizonte, has identified a new target area for rare earth extraction. The site, known as Alvo Botelhos, lies on the edge of the Poços de Caldas Alkaline Complex in southern Minas Gerais and has potential resources exceeding 500 million tonnes of ionic clays.

The company is in talks with international groups to finance the construction of an industrial complex to process the rare earth elements.

“The scale of the project, with more than 91,000 hectares across 57 mining rights, along with the results we have so far, point to the potential for a world-class project,” said Túlio Rivadávia Amaral, CEO of Cabo Verde Mineração.

Ionic clay is a type of clay that contains rare earth ions and is used in energy transition technologies, wind power generation, high-efficiency motors, electric vehicle batteries, advanced electronics, and other applications. In the Alvo Botelhos area, tests indicated the presence of high-value magnetic elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, according to Rivadávia.

Exploration at Alvo Botelhos is being conducted alongside drilling at Alvo Caconde 1, located in the same Poços de Caldas complex, where the company initially pursued an iron ore project.

The targets lie within a block of approximately 91,000 hectares covering four municipalities in Minas Gerais—Muzambinho, Cabo Verde, Campestre, and Botelhos—as well as Caconde in São Paulo state. Rivadávia said the mining company holds 57 mineral rights for exploration in the region.

Among the technical results from priority targets are intervals of 16 meters with average grades of 2,245 parts per million of total rare earth oxides (TREO), including readings of 4,302 ppm TREO and 854 ppm magnetic rare earth oxides (MREO).

“Anomalies are distributed across all four quadrants of the surveyed areas, with results reaching as high as 14,000 ppm and significant recurrence in the 3,000-ppm range,” said Oscar Yokoi, a geologist and technical consultant and a member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists.

SGS Geosol conducted metallurgical leaching tests, which showed TREO recoveries of up to 81.7% and MREO recoveries above 60%, indicating technical and economic feasibility for mining. Samples were analyzed and certified by ALS Brasil and SGS Geosol laboratories.

Rivadávia told Valor that the project began as an iron mining venture in 2020, but during studies a hydrothermal alteration—a volcanic fissure—was identified, suggesting the presence of rare earths. The company then decided to focus on further exploration.

Research began in 2022. The first discovery was at the Caconde target, in the municipality of the same name, and the second was made now. “At Alvo Caconde, we identified a potential of 100 million tonnes of rare earths at 3,200 ppm. That alone could supply a plant for 20 years with output of 5 million tonnes per year. With Botelhos, the expectation is at least 500 million tonnes,” Rivadávia said.

An initial economic assessment at Alvo Botelhos indicated extraction potential of at least 500 million tonnes of rare earths. Drilling began last week.

Rivadávia said he is in talks with groups from the European Union, Canada, the United States and China to raise funding for the project, though the names of the groups remain confidential at this stage.

For the first phase, covering exploration and certification of the areas, Cabo Verde Mineração is investing about $10 million of its own funds.

The company is seeking financing to build the industrial complex, which is expected to require $370 million for a plant with capacity to process 5 million tonnes per year.

The initial plan is to install the plant in Cabo Verde, Minas Gerais, where the company already holds licenses to extract and process iron ore.

In parallel with the rare earth project, Cabo Verde Mineração resumed in December 2025 its iron ore mining project at the Catumbi Mine, located in Cabo Verde and Muzambinho, southern Minas Gerais. The project had been halted for two years while the company focused on rare earth exploration.

“The iron ore reserve is small, close to one million tonnes. We have a license to extract 600,000 tonnes per year. I estimate it will be a project lasting about two and a half years,” Rivadávia said. The company plans to produce lump ore and sinter feed with an average iron content of 66%, aimed at the domestic market.

The rare earth project, however, is expected to take six to seven years to complete the industrial complex and obtain all licenses and certifications needed for production, according to the executive.

Rare earth mining differs from other types of extraction. The company uses ammonium sulfate, which exchanges ions with the clay to separate the rare earth elements. The clay is then returned to the environment enriched with ammonia, a type of fertilizer.

Much of the land involved is currently used for large-scale coffee plantations. “Our intention is to partner with producers. We pay compensation for coffee trees removed during mining. Farmers also receive an exploration royalty equal to 0.5% of CFEM [Brazil’s financial compensation for mineral resource exploitation],” Rivadávia said.

*By Cibelle Bouças — Belo Horizonte

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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