Industry debates distribution of quotas among exporters; lack of consensus among companies poses a challenge
01/07/2026
Brazilian meatpackers are evaluating options to deal with the new quota for beef exports to China, of 1.1 million tonnes, and the 55% tariff for shipments exceeding that volume. One option discussed is distributing the quota among exporters, a measure that may face resistance from some companies.
The distribution would be an attempt to avoid a rush to buy cattle by exporting meatpackers seeking to meet the quota. If that happens, at a time when the supply of pasture-raised cattle is greater, the price per arroba (a metric unit equal to 15 kilos) may fall, since the tendency is for ranchers to sell, said the director of Scot Consultoria, Alcides Torres.
“If companies fail to reach a consensus, the price will fall because everyone will rush to deliver meat within the quota,” he said. “The idea is to distribute this quota among exporting meatpackers, based on export performance in 2025 or in recent years,” he added.
An industry source noted, however, that this would not be a simple task, as some companies have had recent disagreements on other issues.
An example is the relationship between MBRF—the result of the Marfrig and BRF merger—and Minerva, companies that went through conflicts in 2025, when Minerva disagreed with the merger.
“Minerva would be growing its shipments to China, given the acquisition of Marfrig plants, but it doesn’t have a history of this yet, so setting criteria like this and reaching a consensus (to distribute the quota) seems challenging for these players,” the source told Valor. When questioned, MBRF and Minerva declined to comment.
Companies in the sector are also advocating, along with Brazil’s federal government, that Brazilian cargo that is either in Chinese ports or in transit to China should not be included in the quota that officially came into effect on January 1st. These shipments represent approximately 350,000 tonnes.
Paulo Bellicanta, president of the Association of Meat Processing Industries of the State of Mato Grosso (Sindifrigo MT), stated in an article that if these shipments are included in the quota, there would be just over 750,000 tonnes available for exports to the Chinese market throughout 2026.
“Divided by 12 months, this volume translates to approximately 62,500 tonnes per month, a level totally disconnected from the current sector reality,” he estimated. For comparison, Brazil had been exporting volumes exceeding 160,000 tonnes per month to China in recent months. “The only possible path is institutional dialogue with the Chinese authorities, seeking a balanced understanding, built government to government,” suggested Bellicanta.
A third option presented by the meatpacking industry to deal with the situation would be the possibility of Brazil fulfilling the remaining volume from other supplier countries that are unable to meet their quotas for exports to China.
In addition to Brazil, China has also set quotas for countries such as Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, and the USA.
*By Nayara Figueiredo, Globo Rural — São Paulo
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/